The use of discounted least squares in technological forecasting

The use of growth curves in technological forecasting usually employs an equal weighting of all data points in the time series. This paper considers the benefits of weighting recent information more heavily through the utilization of discounted least squares. The method is used to model the growth of the percentage of households with CATV; discounting gives better results for short-term forecasting.     

Technological substitution in the United States pulp and paper industry: The sulfate pulping process

This paper presents an econometric analysis of the diffusion of the sulfate pulping process throughout the U.S. pulp and paper industry. A dynamic equilibrium, Gompertz diffusion function is employed to derive a multivariate estimation model which incorporates more information than the traditional approach of estimating the growth rate function alone. The empirical results suggest that the econometric approach provides a useful integration of the technological diffusion process and the comparative static theory of demand. The sulfate pulping process is projected to continue capturing market share at a relatively rapid rate, and could account for 90% or more of total U.S. woodpulp production by the year 2000.     

Toward closer links between science and society in India: A futuristic formula

This work presents a futuristic scenario of science and technology in India in relation to development and social change. Organizational, financial, developmental, etc. trends in science and technology have been identified as consequences of history, culture and national policy alternatives conceived in the past and perceived for the future. The present course of action is considered unlikely to bridge the existing gap between science and society in India. The findings are relevant for S&T policy and planning in the developing countries.     

Further issues in forecasting primary energy consumption

The series of papers by Marchetti [8, 9, 10] and Graham and Senge [4] (published in this journal between 1977 and 1980) represents a useful alternative approach to the problems of energy demand forecasting and primary energy substitution. The learning system approach seems a most appropriate investigative framework, given the aggregated treatment of the energy supply-demand system. It is also interesting for its attempt to establish a link between the structure of the primary energy markets and the 50–60 year cycles of basic innovations.This paper seeks to illustrate further conclusions from the reported research findings, by considering additional energetic criteria. These additional criteria—energy concentration (or quality) and energy accessibility—appear to reinforce the linkage between innovation waves and primary energy substitution patterns, though we modify the interpretation placed on this connection. Furthermore, the additional criteria lead to alternative conclusions about future energy supply, namely that previously discarded energy sources may be revisited and may retain some of their earlier market share.     

Change mechanisms in the diffusion of residential energy conservation practices: an empirical study

Four types of variables that affect the diffusion of home energy conservation measures are assessed. These variables are the information possessed by households, household attitudes, the economic and demographic characteristics of households, and the attributes of conservation measures. A causal model of behavior change is presented based on Fishbein's theory of reasoned action. The model is tested using panel data on 225 homeowners from Decatur, Illinois and two conservation practices: employing winter night-time thermostat setbacks and adding attic insulation. The results illustrate the importance of all four change mechanisms. Many nonadopters have erroneous information about the financial and other benefits of the two practices. The elderly and the poor are particularly ill-informed. Negative attitudes are closely related to discomfort (for night-time setback) and expense (for attic insulation). As expected, barriers and incentives differ across population subgroups and innovations.     

Interdisciplinary problems in doing impact assessment : The case of Lake Shelbyville

A multidisciplinary team of biologists, economists, engineers, planners, and sociologists were assembled to do an ex-post facto analysis of a flood control reservoir ten years after initial operations. Within the context of a research university, the authors suggest ways to 1) improve project administration, 2) combat disciplinary chauvinism, 3) facilitate the understanding and exchange of data across disciplines, 4) reward the work of graduate students in a fair and equitable manner, and 5) assist the principal investigator in achieving the goal of an interdisciplinary study. The importance of project associates in the day-to-day operation of the study is reviewed in detail.This paper details the administrative problems of the University of Illinois' interdisciplinary effort to examine the “real” environmental impacts of the Lake Shelbyville reservoir 10 years after it had begun operation. Lake Shelbyville is a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoir located in east-central Illinois. Land acquisition began in 1962 and the reservoir was in operation by 1971. While not implying that “apples and oranges” don't mix, problems do result when we try to bring together a group of disciplinary researchers. We write with the hope that the suggestions outlined here will keep environmental impact assessment research interdisciplinary. One of the reasons for the present “environmental fix” is the single discipline approach to environmental problems.A true interdisciplinary effort is necessary for a comprehensive assessment of the impacted physical and social environments, yet “interdisciplinary” can easily become a false label. If the principal investigator and researchers are not attentive to project administration on a day-to-day basis, the old saying about integrating findings “with a staple” can easily result. Rather than integrated assessment, the study report may resemble a series of miniature discipline based projects that read like the list of university departments.     

Mindshift: The mental revolution we are in

It is by now a commonplace to say that today the world is in the midst of a revolution as profound as any we have ever experienced. It is, however, much less of a commonplace to specify precisely of what this revolution consists. The contention of this article is that the revolution is more than a mere shift in our industrial or technological base. Fundamentally, it is a change in underlying mental attitudes—how we conceive of the world. It is thus a shift in our values but at the same time much more basic than this alone.This article describes the nature of the change that is occuring in mental attitudes. However, it does not do so in a traditional way. Primarily, it does it by means of a fable. The reason is that the shift we are experiencing is also in part a shift in our aesthetic vision, that is, in the styles of discourse that we use to describe reality. In short, different conceptions of the world require different stylistic forms. The full nuances of a new era can not be captured by the forms of the past.     

A multi-attribute diffusion model for forecasting the adoption of investment alternatives for consumers

This article develops a diffusion model that incorporates potential adopters' perceptions of the relevant innovation attributes in explaining the rate of adoption of an innovation. Data from 14 investment alternatives currently available to consumers are used to develop a multi-attribute diffusion model for forecasting the acceptance of a potential investment alternative. Limitations and further extensions of the proposed model are also discussed.     

Strategic management: The state-of-the-art and beyond

A study of 25 major corporations assesses the state-of-the-art in strategic planning, and explores future prospects for developing a more powerful form of strategic management to cope with the transition to a new economic era. Current planning practices show that large corporations have developed complex strategic information systems, a decision-making process that is inherently organic, and planning operations that embody cybernetic principles. However, the prevailing approach to strategic planning is severely limited because it is based upon an old model of corporate management that has become outmoded: a restricted focus on hard technology leaves critical soft issues unresolved, authoritarian hierarchies produce the typical disadvantages of bureaucracy, and a closed-system orientation isolates the firm from its environment. New approaches to business management seem to be evolving now to overcome these constraints: the frontier of economic progress is shifting to a new form of soft growth, organizational structures are being transformed into entrepreneurial networks, and the institutional role of business is expanding to include its external constituencies. These trends represent key features of a new model of strategic management—the “strategically managed corporation”— that is specifically suited for fostering strategic change.     

U.S.-Japanese competition in high-technology fields

As Japan has moved abreast of the United States in the export capability of high-technology products, the competition between the two countries has intensified not only in private sector R&D but also in terms of increased governmental assistance and protectionist measures. This increased competition can be seen in the three electronics industry cases of semiconductors, computers, and robotics, and is specifically illustrated by Japan's VLSI and fifth generation computer projects and the FBI-IBM sting operation in Silicon Valley. All portend a greater technological rivalry, with continuing critical consequences for society.     

Consequences of increasing scarcity on affluent countries

A theory of continuous structural changes in countries and a theory of discontinuous structural changes are used to predict the consequences of increasing scarcity on countries with some affluence. The prognosis is disheartening. According to the theory of continuous change, increasing scarcity will directly or indirectly increase the inequality, centralization, disintegration, disturbances, repression, and both national and international conflict and will directly or indirectly decrease socioeconomic development, legitimacy, and democracy. These changes will be unpopular and create pressures for discontinuous change to prevent them. Furthermore, increasing scarcity will increase the desire for structural change and weaken the regime's capacity to manage the situation. Thus the pressure for structural change will be strong. Scarcity also interferes with the peaceful restructuring of democracies in their efforts to cope with the crisis. When these theories are used in predicting the future of modern countries under conditions of prolonged scarcity, they suggest that elitist democracies and elitist nondemocracies are likely to be restructured into egalitarian nondemocracies. Egalitarian democracies will survive as such if they are blessed with exceptional leadership. Otherwise they also might be restructured in the direction of egalitarian nondemocracy.     

Japan's technology trade

Japan's heavy importation of technology is placed within a historical context and found to be highly efficient in terms of the country's economic development goals. The Asian nation's comprehensive approach in securing and importing the appropriate know-how together with the necessary investments in human resources and capital all aided the transfer and employment of the acquired technology. Statistics on education and study and the use of foreign expertise and schools are cited to illustrate the various efforts at keeping abreast of the West during the turmoil of the last century. Over the long term, these efforts have proved consistent and in the end, usually rewarding. Currently, the trade picture appears poised for a fundamental change as Japan becomes a net exporter of advanced technology. Such a shift will have worldwide consequences for science and commerce.     

Theory and practice of integrated impact assessment : The case of the western energy study

Four aspects of an applied technology assessment of western energy development are examined: the social and political context, the analytical approach, organization and management, and participation and utilization strategies. The value of technology assessments in addressing the uncertainties and value conflicts created by technological change depends in large part on organizational and management devices, particularly interdisciplinarity, external review, and participatory research strategies. While these approaches provide no guarantees, they help to compensate for inadequate theories and methodologies in providing integrated research findings.     

Limits and possibilities of large-scale long-range societal models

It is argued that the appropriate criteria for evaluating large-scale long-range societal (or “world”) models differ significantly from the criteria that are appropriate for short-range econometric models or for small “toy” models. World models are designed to elucidate major societal problems arising from the interaction of many loosely connected factors—demographic, economic, technological, and environmental—that can be safely neglected in short-range extrapolative models. World models are also intended to explore the implications of long-range policy alternatives. Consequently, it is important that world models be phenomenological, rather than statistical, and they must “capture” the essence of some inherently nonlinear phenomena. This implies achieving qualitative realism without imposing an unwarranted assumption of causal determinism. Unfortunately, the mathematical characteristics of large nonlinear systems may essentially preclude meaningful long-run forecasts.     

Static and dynamic forecasting of short-run demand for money

Previous studies of static and dynamic out-of-sample simulations of the demand for money have indicated a breakdown in the short-run real money balances over the past 1974 forecast period. Using the varying parameter regression technique, the findings of this paper demonstrate that previous results are misleading because the shift of the money demand is obscured by the constant coefficient estimation technique. Our estimation procedure has not only drastically improved both static and dynamic forecasts but has also solved the missing money puzzle.     

Pseudoplanning

The tactics used by sponsors to manage a planning process is an important cause of plan failure. When the process is manipulated or its management ignored, pseudoplanning results. Several case studies were analyzed to identify types of pseudoplanning. They are called, “What's the problem,” “omnipotent planners,” “transported ideas,” “pooled ignorance,” “do it my way,” “change as given,” “surrender,” “takeover,” “sciencism,” and “empty phases.” Each is described to point out how they led to poor planning practice.