Risk management of deposit insurance corporations with risk-based premiums and credit default swaps

In this paper, we propose a risk-based model for deposit insurance premiums and provide the closed-form formula for premiums, including early closure, capital forbearance, interest rate risk, and moral hazard. Our numerical analysis confirms the proposed pricing formula and the relative impact of the provisions for deposit insurance premiums. We illustrate how to use credit default swaps (CDSs) to manage the bank’s asset risk corresponding to the deposit insurance model. A failed bank, Washington Mutual, is used to demonstrate how to calibrate the model’s parameters and calculate fair premiums that are consistent with market risks on the basis of our proposed model and credit derivatives. Finally, a numerical experiment is designed to determine the optimal hedge ratio, which can minimise the variance of cash-flow of the deposit insurance corporations.     

How Does Information Disclosure Affect Bank Systemic Risk in the Presence of a Deposit Insurance System?

ABSTRACT

This article establishes a dynamic game with incomplete information to theoretically analyze the influence mechanism of information disclosure on systemic risk in the presence of a deposit insurance system. To verify the mechanism, we use panel data on 247 global banks in 41 countries during the period 2006 to 2015 in an empirical analysis. Our article finds that a high degree of information disclosure can reduce deposit insurance premiums and weaken the negative incentive from a bailout by regulatory authorities. Moreover, the effect of deposit insurance on financial stability is not apparent, but the synergistic effect of deposit insurance and information disclosure reduces bank systemic risk. Furthermore, different deposit insurance designs affect bank behavior, so it is crucial for bank supervisors to create proper deposit insurance systems, which are helpful in strengthening market discipline and preventing moral hazard thus contributing to a stable financial environment. Therefore, under the deposit insurance system, regulatory authorities should strive to improve the standard of information disclosure to ensure systemic stability.     

Reinsurance premium principles based on weighted loss functions

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we propose new reinsurance premium principles that minimize the expected weighted loss functions and balance the trade-off between the reinsurer's shortfall risk and the insurer's risk exposure in a reinsurance contract. Random weighting factors are introduced in the weighted loss functions so that weighting factors are based on the underlying insurance risks. The resulting reinsurance premiums depend on both the loss covered by the reinsurer and the loss retained by the insurer. The proposed premiums provide new ways for pricing reinsurance contracts and controlling the risks of both the reinsurer and the insurer. As applications of the proposed principles, the modified expectile reinsurance principle and the modified quantile reinsurance principle are introduced and discussed in details. The properties of the new reinsurance premium principles are investigated. Finally, the comparisons between the new reinsurance premium principles and the classical expectile principle, the classical quantile principle, and the risk-adjusted principle are provided.     

Credit variance risk premiums

This paper studies variance risk premiums in the credit market using a novel data set of swaptions quotes on the CDX North America Investment Grade and High-Yield indices. The returns of credit variance swaps are negative and economically large, irrespective of the credit rating class. They are robust to transaction costs and cannot be explained by established risk factors and structural model variables. We also dissect the overall variance risk premium into receiver and payer variance risk premiums. We show that credit variance risk premiums are mainly driven by the payer corridor, which is associated with worsening macroeconomic conditions.     

Accounting and litigation risk: evidence from Directors’ and Officers’ insurance pricing

We study whether and how financial reporting concerns are priced by insurers that sell Directors’ and Officers’ (D&O) insurance to public firms. As D&O insurers typically assume the liabilities arising from shareholder litigation, the premiums they charge for D&O coverage reflect their assessment of a company’s litigation risk. Using a sample of public firms in the 2001–2004 Tillinghast D&O insurance surveys, we document that firms with lower earnings quality or prior accounting restatements pay higher premiums after controlling for other factors impacting litigation risk. In addition, insurers’ concerns about financial reporting are most evident for firms with restatements that are not revenue or expense related, are greater in the period following the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act of 2002, and are greater for firms with financial reporting problems that linger. Our results are consistent with past restatements being viewed as evidence of chronic problems with a firm’s financial statements. By analyzing archival data, we can also quantify the effects of other determinants of D&O premiums (such as business risk, corporate governance, etc.) identified by Baker and Griffith (Univ Chic Law Rev 74(2):487–544, 2007a) through interviews regarding the D&O underwriting process.     

RISK-TAKING INCENTIVES OF BANKS AND RISK-ADJUSTED DEPOSIT INSURANCE

The manager of a depository institution is shown to exhibit risk-taking behavior under the current insurance arrangement. Perfect monitoring or risk-based deposit insurance would eliminate this incentive if information were symmetric between bank managers and the insuring agency. Absent symmetric information, it is shown that a recently suggested scheme, where insurers collect insurance premiums based on projected and actual risk levels, does not control the risk-taking incentive. The only way to control this incentive through insurance rates is to levy a relatively high premium, which is not actuarially fair.     

Risk,return and mean‐variance efficiency of Islamic and non‐Islamic stocks: evidence from a unique Malaysian data set

We find that Islamic stocks are more mean–variance efficient than non‐Islamic stocks and the market because they reduce risk of the same level of returns. We combine a unique Malaysian data set of individual Islamic stocks (as opposed to aggregate stock indices) since 1997 with a new method where we apply Islamic business activity and financial ratio screens to the universe of Malaysian stocks. Both data sets show that Islamic stocks have an annualised standard deviation that is on average 3.43–3.78 percent points lower compared to non‐Islamic stocks. This lower variance of Islamic stocks is exclusively driven by financial ratio screens.     

Bonus-Malus Systems with Two-Component Mixture Models Arising from Different Parametric Families

Two-component mixture distributions defined so that the component distributions do not necessarily arise from the same parametric family are employed for the construction of Optimal Bonus-Malus Systems (BMSs) with frequency and severity components. The proposed modeling framework is used for the first time in actuarial literature research and includes an abundance of alternative model choices to be considered by insurance companies when deciding on their Bonus-Malus pricing strategies. Furthermore, we advance one step further by assuming that all the parameters and mixing probabilities of the two component mixture distributions are modeled in terms of covariates. Applying Bayes' theorem we derive optimal BMSs either by updating the posterior probability of the policyholders’ classes of risk or by updating the posterior mean and the posterior variance. The resulting tailor-made premiums are calculated via the expected value and variance principles and are compared to those based only on the a posteriori criteria. The use of the variance principle in a Bonus-Malus ratemaking scheme in a way that takes into consideration both the number and the costs of claims based on both the a priori and the a posterior classification criteria has not yet been proposed and can alter the resulting premiums significantly, providing the actuary with useful alternative tariff structures.     

Valuation of Equity-Linked Insurance and Annuity Products with Binomial Models

Abstract

In this paper we develop a valuation method for equity-linked insurance products. We assume that the premium information of term life insurances, pure endowment insurances, and endowment insurances at all maturities is obtainable within a company or from the insurance market. Using a method similar to that of Jarrow and Turnbull (1995), we derive three martingale probability measures associated with these basic insurance products. These measures are agedependent, include an adjustment for the mortality risk, and reproduce the premiums of the respective insurance products. We then extend the martingale measures to include the financial market information using copulas and use them to evaluate equity-linked insurance contracts and equity-indexed annuities in particular. This is different from the traditional approach under which diversification of mortality risk is assumed. A detailed numerical analysis is performed for various existing equity-indexed annuities in the North American market.     

The cost of operational risk loss insurance

Using the Algo FIRST operational risk database, this paper computes the cost of operational risk loss insurance for a sample of banks over a 1-year horizon. The estimated cost of 1-year operational risk loss insurance for an average bank is 1.24% as a percentage of firm value on December 31, 2006, while an average AA bank is 0.24%. These estimates far exceed the typical 1-year default insurance premiums as reflected in market CDS rates for similarly rated banks. These insurance premiums confirm the economic importance of operational risk in the management of financial institutions.     

Variance risk premiums in foreign exchange markets

Based on the theory of static replication of variance swaps we assess the sign and magnitude of variance risk premiums in foreign exchange markets. We find significantly negative risk premiums when realized variance is computed from intraday data with low frequency. As a likely consequence of microstructure effects however, the evidence is ambiguous when realized variance is based on high-frequency data. Common to all estimates, variance risk premiums are highly time-varying and inversely related to the risk-neutral expectation of future variance.When we test whether variance risk premiums can be attributed to classic risk factors or fear of jump risk, we find that conditional premiums remain significantly negative. However, we observe a strong relationship between the size of log variance risk premiums and the VIX, the TED spread and the general shape of the implied volatility function of the corresponding currency pair. Overall, we conclude that there is a separately priced variance risk factor which commands a highly time-varying premium.     

Zur Entscheidungsnützlichkeit eines IFRS-Abschlusses von Versicherern – Analyse der angedachten Regelungen zum endgültigen IFRS 4

In its Discussion Paper from May 2007 for the final IFRS 4 (“Insurance Contracts”), the IASB planned the “Current Exit Value” (CEV) to evaluate insurance liabilities. The aim of this article is to examine the impacts of the planned Current-Exit-Value-Approach on the decision usefulness of insurers' financial statements. In order to evaluate accounting rules, the criterion decision usefulness is divided into two sub-criteria – relevance and reliability. We found out that the Current-Exit-Value-Approach for insurance contracts in conjunction with fair value accounting of relating assets actually generates relevant information for users of insurers' financial statements. But we have serious concerns about a cost-adequate implementation of CEV approach. Furthermore, the reliability of accounting information based on a synthetic fair value is strongly questionable. Only extensive disclosure requirements can bring transparency to users and therefore assure reliable accounting information. Besides, there are other topics that should be reviewed before releasing a final standard (e.?g. customer relationship, credit characteristics of insurance liabilities, unit of account).     

Perspectives of Risk Sharing

In this paper we present an overview of the standard risk sharing model of insurance. We discuss and characterize a competitive equilibrium, Pareto optimality, and representative agent pricing, including its implications for insurance premiums. We only touch upon the existence problem of a competitive equilibrium, primarily by presenting several examples. Risk tolerance and aggregation is the subject of one section. Risk adjustment of the probability measure is one topic, as well as the insurance version of the capital asset pricing model. The competitive paradigm may be a little demanding in practice, so we alternatively present a game theoretic view of risk sharing, where solutions end up in the core. Properly interpreted, this may give rise to a range of prices of each risk, often visualized in practice by an ask price and a bid price. The nice aspect of this is that these price ranges can be explained by "first principles", not relying on transaction costs or other frictions. We also include a short discussion of moral hazard in risk sharing between an insurer and a prospective insurance buyer. We end the paper by indicating the implications of our results for a pure stock market. In particular we find it advantageous to discuss the concepts of incomplete markets in this general setting, where it is possible to use results for closed, convex subspaces of an L 2 -space to discuss optimal risk allocation problems in incomplete financial markets.     

Fair Value Measurements of Control Premiums

As the overview of the current state of research within this paper shows, the debate around fair value measurements is far from over. This paper analyzes fair value measurement requirements in a controversial scenario, namely when a control premium exists. The analyses of the paper show that, while measurement rules around control premiums could have a material impact on fair value measurements and the financial statements as a whole, significant fair value measurement issues remain unresolved. The conclusion is that fair value measurements should include or exclude control premiums consistently. It is argued that including control premiums for all fair value measurements is the most faithful representation of the underlying economic phenomenon. This paper contributes to the fair value measurement debate by comparing the merits of alternative fair value measurements for control premiums and highlights an area where researchers, investors, and other users should exercise caution when evaluating financial statements.     

Fair valuation of cliquet-style return guarantees in (homogeneous and) heterogeneous life insurance portfolios

Participating life insurance contracts allow the policyholder to participate in the annual return of a reference portfolio. Additionally, they are often equipped with an annual (cliquet-style) return guarantee. The current low interest rate environment has again refreshed the discussion on risk management and fair valuation of such embedded options. While this problem is typically discussed from the viewpoint of a single contract or a homogeneous* insurance portfolio, contracts are, in practice, managed within a heterogeneous insurance portfolio. Their valuation must then – unlike the case of asset portfolios – take account of portfolio effects: Their premiums are invested in the same reference portfolio; the contracts interact by a joint reserve, individual surrender options and joint default risk of the policy sponsor. Here, we discuss the impact of portfolio effects on the fair valuation of insurance contracts jointly managed in (homogeneous and) heterogeneous life insurance portfolios. First, in a rather general setting, including stochastic interest rates, we consider the case that otherwise homogeneous contracts interact due to the default risk of the policy sponsor. Second, and more importantly, we then also consider the case when policies are allowed to differ in further aspects like the guaranteed rate or time to maturity. We also provide an extensive numerical example for further analysis.     

Market Value Margin für die Fair Value-Bilanzierung versicherungstechnischer Verpflichtungen : Ableitung auf Basis des CAPM

The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) started a project on Insurance Accounting to apply the principles of fair value to insurance businesses. The so called ?asset and liability approach“ would focus on the balance sheet, with both assets and liabilities being reported at fair values, while income and expenses are defined in terms of changes in the values of those assets and liabilities. Indeed, there are no deep and liquid markets for insurance liabilities. Thus, the fair value has to be calculated as a theoretical value, using assumptions concerning future events, risk provisions and discount rates. Both in theory and in practice a generally accepted modelling of fair value is missing. Particularly with regard to the deviation of a Market Value Margin (MVM), which reflects the premium that a marketplace participant would demand for bearing the uncertainty inherent in the cash flows, there is a need for adequate modelling. Transforming the CAPM for determining risk loads in insurance will mean measuring the correlation between insurance companies’ returns from underwriting and market returns on its shareholders’ equity. The criticism on an underwriting beta focuses on (a) the basic assumptions of the CAPM, (b) the absence of active markets for insurance liabilities and (c) the unreliability of estimating underwriting betas.     

Bias-correcting the realized range-based variance in the presence of market microstructure noise

Market microstructure noise is a challenge to high-frequency based estimation of the integrated variance, because the noise accumulates with the sampling frequency. This has led to widespread use of constructing the realized variance, a sum of squared intraday returns, from sparsely sampled data, for example 5- or 15-minute returns. In this paper, we analyze the impact of microstructure noise on the realized range-based variance and propose a bias correction to the range-statistic. The new estimator is shown to be consistent for the integrated variance and asymptotically mixed Gaussian under simple forms of microstructure noise. We can select an optimal partition of the high-frequency data in order to minimize its asymptotic conditional variance. The finite sample properties of our estimator are studied with Monte Carlo simulations and we implement it using Microsoft high-frequency data from TAQ. We find that a bias-corrected range-statistic often leads to much smaller confidence intervals for the integrated variance, relative to the realized variance. We should like to thank an anonymous referee and the associate editor for insightful comments on an earlier draft. Parts of this paper were written while Kim Christensen was at the University of California, San Diego, whose hospitality is gratefully acknowledged. Mark Podolskij received financial support from CREATES funded by the Danish National Research Foundation, and Mathias Vetter was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft grant SFB 475 “Reduction of Complexity in Multivariate Data Structures.” The code for this paper was written in the Ox programming language, due to Doornik (2002). All views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of Nordea.     

公允价值会计对保险公司财务报告的影响

主要探讨公允价值会计对财务报告体系和结构的影响。公允价值会计对财务报告的各要素都产生重大影响,从而影响保险公司财务报告本身。其中关键的因素是保险负债的评估,虽然保险责任准备金没有直接的市场价格,但是,只要构成保险责任准备金的各种要素反映了市场价格,就可以认为保险责任准备金具备了公允价值。在假设层面上,行业假设是假设市场...     

Zur Quantifizierung der Risikoprämien deutscher Versicherungsaktien im Kontext eines Multifaktorenmodells

In this contribution we present an empirical study that focuses on the relationship between risk and return for a universe of insurance Stocks in Germany during the period 1975–1998. The study was conducted using a multi factor model. The proportion of explained variance ranges from 9.29% to 13.62% in the monthly regressions. We found a significant and negative relationship between changes in the term structure of interest rates and the risk premiums for insurance Stocks. Also significant is the exchange rate of the Deutsche Mark against the US-Dollar.     

Reinsurance decisions in life insurance: An empirical test of the risk–return criterion

Recent studies have analyzed optimal reinsurance contracts within the framework of profit maximization and/or risk minimization. This type of framework, however, does not consider reinsurance as a tool for capital management and financing. In the present paper, we consider different proportional reinsurance contracts used in life insurance (viz., quota-share, surplus, and combinations of quota-share and surplus) while taking into account the insurer's capital constraints. The objective is to determine how different reinsurance transactions affect the risk/reward profile of the insurer and whether factors, such as claims severity, premiums, and insurer's risk appetite, influence the choice of a proportional reinsurance coverage. We compare each reinsurance structure based on actual insurance company data, using the risk–return criterion. This criterion determines the type of reinsurance that enables insurer to retain the largest underwriting profits and/or minimize the risk of the retained claims while keeping the insurer's risk appetite constant, assuming a given capital constraint. The results of this study confirm that the choice of reinsurance arrangement depends on many factors, including risk retention levels, premiums, and the variance of the sum insured values (and therefore claims). As such, under heterogeneous insurance portfolio single type of reinsurance arrangement cannot maximize insurer's returns and/or minimize the risk, therefore a combination of different reinsurance coverages should be employed. Hence, future research on optimal risk management choices should consider heterogeneous portfolios while determining the effects of different financial and risk management tools on companies' risk–return profiles.