Estimating and testing the compensated double-log demand model

In spite of the proliferation of flexible functional forms for consumer demand systems, the double-log demand model continues to be popular, especially in applied work calling for single-equation models. It is usually estimated in uncompensated form. It can also be estimated in compensated form, by deflating the income variable alone using Stone's price index. The compensated form has the same right-hand side as a single-equation version of the popular linear approximation to the Almost Ideal demand model, facilitating the construction of a test for choosing between the two alternatives. This paper demonstrates these results, develops the specification test, and illustrates its application using US meat consumption data. Simulations suggest that the test is well-behaved with good power in typical applications.     

A globally flexible,quadratic almost ideal demand system: an application to demand for meats and fish in Taiwan

A new demand system, called a globally flexible, quadratic almost ideal demand system (GF–QUAIDS), integrates both the quadratic Engel curve and the Fourier series. This novel GF–QUAIDS model is applied to study the demand for meats and fish in Taiwan. Empirical results show that the GF–QUAIDS fits the data well and that, by using the likelihood ratio test, its nested models are rejected, including the locally flexible functional form and the linear Engel curve. Nevertheless, other empirical model-selection measures indicate that the GF–QUAIDS can be as good as its famous nested models such as the AIDS, QUAIDS and GF–AIDS.     

The empirical content of Cournot competition

We consider the testable implications of the Cournot model of market competition. Our approach is nonparametric in the sense that we abstain from imposing any functional specification on market demand and firm cost functions. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for (reduced form) equilibrium market price and quantity functions to be consistent with the Cournot model. In addition, we present identification results for the corresponding inverse market demand function and the firm cost functions. Finally, we use our approach to derive testable restrictions for the models of perfect competition, collusion and conjectural variations. This identifies the conditions under which these different models are empirically distinguishable from the Cournot model. We also investigate empirical issues (measurement error and omitted variables) related to bringing our testable restrictions to data.     

A generalized additive Tobit model

This paper proposes a semi-parametric approach to estimation in Tobit models. A generalized additive Tobit model of residential local long distance (intra-LATA) telephone demand is estimated on a cross-section of residential telephone consumers across twenty-eight states. While past studies of telecommunications demand have used fully parametric models, the model presented here is non-parametric in two dimensions: first no distributional assumption is made for the error distribution, and second, the demand equation is non-parametric with respect to price. We find that the elasticity of demand is substantially lower (in absolute value) that found in previous studies for a 40% cut in tariffs. First version received: July 2000/Final version received: March 2001 RID="*" ID="*"  I thank the referee and Associate Editor for suggestions which improved the paper. The views expressed here are of the author and not Analysis Group | Economics.     

Forecasting demand for a newly introduced product using reservation price data and Bayesian updating

Forecasting demand during the early stages of a product's life cycle is a difficult but essential task for the purposes of marketing and policymaking. This paper introduces a procedure to derive accurate forecasts for newly introduced products for which limited data are available. We begin with the assumption that the consumer reservation price is related to the timing with which the consumer adopts the product. The model is estimated using reservation price data derived through a consumer survey, and the forecast is updated with sales data as they become available using Bayes's rule. The proposed model's forecasting performance is compared with that of benchmark models (i.e., Bass model, logistic growth model, and a Bayesian model based on analogy) using 23 quarters' worth of data on South Korea's broadband Internet services market. The proposed model outperforms all benchmark models in both prelaunch and postlaunch forecasting tests, supporting the thesis that consumer reservation price can be used to forecast demand for a new product before or shortly after product launch.     

The CES‐‐Translog Production Function, Returns to Scale and AES

The translog functional form imposes no a priori restrictions on the substitution possibilities between the factor inputs, by relaxing the assumption of strong separability, and the CES–translog cost function specification allows for testing homothetic technology with Hicks‐neutral technical change. In this paper an n ‐factor CES–translog production function is presented which develops the parameters to directly assess scale effects from those due to technology in the production structure. In addition, by applying Shephard's lemma it was possible to derive the input demand functions, as well as the partial elasticities of substitution and the cross‐partial price elasticities of demand for a generalized CES–translog production structure.     

Effects of Changes in Household Size,Consumer Taste & Preferences on Demand Pattern in India

Current research in applied demand analysis has been addressing the twin issues of degree of non-linearity or curvature of the Engel curves and the ability to capture price effects appropriately by the demand system. Further, in addition to income and prices, the role of demographic variables like household size, composition and dynamic aspects like consumer taste & preferences are also being ’ emphasized in recent literature. Continuous efforts are being made to modify the existing models and propose new ones to incorporate the above developments. The purpose of this study is to re-examine the usefulness of the popular linear expenditure system vis-à-vis the two other flexible models viz. Nasse expenditure system, a generalization of the linear expenditure system itself, and the almost ideal demand system in the above context for India.The empirical results indicate wide variation in marginal budget shares and demand elasticities across income groups, rural-urban sectors and alternative models. The household size and consumer taste & preferences are found to be statistically significant. The results confirm the earlier findings that there are significant changes in consumer tastes away from cereals and pulses in favor of other food and nonfood commodities. The results also show that flexible models, which are theoretically superior, gave unacceptable positive price responses for some commodities and violated second order conditions of utility maximization. It is found that some ad-hoc separability restrictions are needed, thereby limiting the flexibility of the model, to get negative own-price responses in these models. But, second order conditions are still violated. The tests of nested hypotheses also confirm the need for inclusion of household size, consumer taste, income group and rural-urban dummies along with their interaction variables in the demand system.

     

A variance equality test of the ICAPM on Philippine stocks: post-Asian financial crisis period

Analysis of the data generated from various residential time-of-day electricity pricing projects often involves estimation of a system of demand equations. Both ad hoc demand models and neoclassical demand models have been estimated, often resulting in considerably different estimates of price elasticities. In this paper, elasticity estimates are presented from each type of demand model using data from the Arizona and North Carolina rate demonstration projects. The relationship between the elasticities generated from ad hoc models and separable neoclassical models is explored and the divergent price elasticity estimates are reconciled.     

对投入产出模型性质的理论思考#br#

投入产出方法作为一种经验研究方法被大量用于实际经济问题的分析，但是模型假定与方法性质的理解却是合理使用投入产出方法的前提。投入产出模型的突出特点表现为以生产为中心、结构性和方法的系统性。投入产出需求拉动的数量模型和成本推动的价格模型构成了其核心分析框架，两类模型都是以生产为中心；数量模型和价格模型所体现的产业间相互影响不仅包括直接联系，也包括间接联系，从而具有结构性特征。从系统性来看，这一分析框架以生产为核心形成模型的内生边界，并可以进一步对内生边界和概念进行调整；此外，通过引入分配系数建立供给驱动模型，以及与优化模型相结合扩展为广义投入产出模型体系，构成系统性的分析框架。为此，本文从投入产出模型的基本性质出发，对投入产出方法结构性的内涵、模型系统内生边界的划分和调整、需求拉动和供给推动模型体系的对称性，以及广义投入产出体系的对偶性等若干基本问题展开充分讨论，由此提出笔者对投入产出方法性质的思考。     

The demand for residential electricity: new evidence on time-varying elasticities

This study employs a generalized functional form to examine demand for residential electiricity. The appropriatenes of the conventional double-log and linear forms are tested. Time-varying elasicities are estimated. Major findings are summarized as follows:(1) the double-log and linear forms can be rejected at the 0.05 and 0.01 levels, respectively; (2) long-run own-price elasticities declined in absolute value consistently from 2.13 to 1.19 during the period 1950–87; (3) long-run income elasticities also decreased from 1.29 to 0.97 during the same period; and (4) long-run corss-Price elasticities with respect to the price of natural gas dropped form 0.40 to 0.29. These results may be heplful to decision makers in determining the change in total revenues owning to the change in prices, pricing strategies, the effectiveness of energy conservation programmes, the effect of rising real income on the demand for residential electricity and future demand.     

需求价格弹性、销售收益和企业利润的关系研究：基于成本策略视角

将成本策略引入到需求价格弹性与利润的对应关系模型中,找到了企业在以保利润为目标时,临界需求价格弹性计算方法,开创性地分析出在降低变动成本策略下企业如何进行价格调整以及如何确定调整幅度,给出具有操作性的推论,对企业具有实际参考价值。     

A differentiated tolls system – an effective transport policy tool for Slovenia?

We provide an econometric model of passenger and freight transportation demand based on panel data for 10 sections of toll roads in Slovenia. Transportation demand on Slovenian motorways is price inelastic. The price elasticity of transportation demand statistically varies among different parts of the toll sections, so it would seem sensible to introduce a differentiated toll system that would allow the simultaneous achievement of multiple objectives, such as increasing the internalization of the external costs of transport, increasing transportation demand management on the basis of price and increasing cost recovery for the maintenance and development of toll roads in Slovenia. Transportation demand is even more responsive to changes in fuel price than changes in tolls, so transportation policy can manage transportation demand using differences in fuel prices. Based on estimates of demand models differentiated according to several geographical groups of road sections, we also find that growth in the price elasticity of transportation demand in Slovenia can be achieved through the expansion of the transport supply by increasing the competitiveness of rail transport and alternative transportation routes.     

EFFECT OF OIL PRICES ON STOCK MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM NEW GENERATION OF STAR MODEL

This paper aims to introduce an evidence of new generations of smooth transition regression model (STAR). It proposes two different forms of STAR model. First: a time varying STAR model (TVSTAR), which identify the estimated coefficients at each point of time. Second: a full specification STAR model (FSSTAR) which provides a consistent estimate even in the existence of some measurement errors, omitted variables and even if the true functional form is unknown. This study will consider the two proposed models and the traditional STAR model to examine the nonlinear relation between oil price and stock market index for two countries (Egypt and Turkey). Our results confirm the existing of a non‐linear relation between oil prices and stock return for both countries. The suggested models gives more accurate information about the time varying effect of oil price changes on stock markets and robust forecasts.     

A generalization to QUAIDS

Previous research shows that consumers’ response to price and income changes is heterogeneous. In addition, evidence from national data often does not support the classical assumption of one commodity-one price. This paper introduces a data coherent generalization to the quadratic form of the almost ideal demand system (g-QUAIDS) that incorporates the sources of heterogeneity in the demand function and allows for regional price variation. Aggregation over consumers imposes a linearization to the g-QUAIDS that requires a new set of price indices. The results from an empirical study by using microdata from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey of Iran highlight the impact of aggregation bias in relation to the level of aggregation. An investigation of the predictive power of linear versus nonlinear g-QUAIDS in different aggregation levels provides practical recommendations for consumer demand analysis.     

WELFARE EFFECTS OF STRATEGIC PRICE SETTING IN ANTICIPATION OF PRICE REGULATION

A single product monopolist with constant unit costs, in a simple two-period model, is aware that price regulation will be imposed in the second period. The form of the regulation is such that price in period 2 may not exceed 100 ; per cent of price in period 1, where 0 < < 1. The period 1 price will be set higher than it would be in the absence of anticipated regulation. However, it is not always the case that pre-regulation price will be raised as falls. The welfare effects are crucially dependent on the form of the demand function. Under constant elasticity of demand a reduction in will reduce both consumers' and the producer's welfare. Under linear demand, consumers benefit and the producer loses as is reduced and the resultant effect on aggregate welfare is ambiguous.     

Consumer allocation models: Choice of functional form

The functional form of consumer allocation models should be able to satisfy theoretical properties derived from the theory of consumer demand. The paper sketches four approaches that meet this condition. Of course, also empirical performance matters. Next to naive goodness-of-fit comparison, non-nested hypothesis testing can be employed. The latter technique is applied to a comparison of four versions of differential demand systems: the Rotterdam system, a version of the Almost Ideal Demand (AID) system, the CBS system and the NBR system. These systems are artificially nested in a more general model using scalar weights in contrast to Barten and McAleer (1991) who use matrix weights for this purpose. Annual data over the period 1921–1981 for The Netherlands for four major groups of consumer expenditure have been used for the empirical application. The CBS system dominates the others.     

DEMOGRAPHIC DEMAND SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATION TO EQUIVALENCE SCALES ESTIMATION AND INEQUALITY ANALYSIS: THE AUSTRALIAN EVIDENCE

This paper proposes and applies an alternative demographic procedure for extending a demand system to allow for the effect of household size and composition changes, along with price changes, on expenditure allocation. The demographic procedure is applied to two recent demand functional forms to obtain their estimable demographic extensions. The estimation on pooled time series of Australian Household Expenditure Surveys yields sensible and robust estimates of the equivalence scale, and of its variation with relative prices. Further evidence on the usefulness of this procedure is provided by using it to evaluate the nature and magnitude of the inequality bias of relative price changes in Australia over a period from the late 1980s to the early part of the new millennium.     

Further analysis of cross-country comparison of consumer expenditure patterns

The present paper analyzes consumer expenditure pattern within the framework of classical demand theory. We compare the linear expenditure system (LES) with two other demand systems based on utility-maximizing behavior: a generalized linear expenditure system (GLES) and the indirect addilog expenditure system (IAES). Our data consists of annual time series, 1950–1965, for 11 OECD member countries.The main results of this paper are that consumer expenditure patterns can be explained by emperical demand models based on utility-maximizing behavior. Furthermore the GLES model, while not without its share of weaknesses, seems to be more attractive than the IAES and LES models.     

A simple model for study of the determination of the price level and the interaction of monetary and fiscal policy

Summary A representative-agent model with money holdings motivated by transactions costs, a fiscal authority that taxes and issues debt, no production, and a convenient functional form for agents' utility is presented. The model can be solved analytically, and illustrates the dependence of price determination on fiscal policy, the possibility of indeterminacy, even stochastic explosion, of the price level in the face of a monetary policy that holdsM fixed, and the possibility of a unique, stable price level in the face of a monetary policy that simply pegs the nominal interest rate at an arbitrary level.In a rational expectations, market-clearing equilibrium model with a costlessly-produced fiat money that is useful in transactions, the following things are true under broad assumptions.- A monetary policy that fixes the money stock may (depending on the transactions technology) be consistent with indeterminacy of the price level—indeed with stochastically fluctuating, explosive inflation.- A monetary policy that fixes the nominal interest rate, even if it holds the interest rate constant regardless of the observed rate of inflation or money growth rate, may deliver a uniquely determined price level.- The existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium price level cannot be determined from knowledge of monetary policy alone; fiscal policy plays an equally important role. Special case models with interest-bearing debt and no money are possible, just as are special cases with money and no interest-bearing debt. In each the price level may be uniquely determined.Determinacy of the price level under any policy depends on the public's beliefs about what the policy authority would do under conditions that are never observed in equilibrium.These points are not new. Eric Leeper [1991] has made most of them within a single coherent model. Woodford [1993], in a representative agent cash-in-advance model, has displayed the possibility of indeterminacy with a fixed quantity of money and the possibility of uniqueness with an interest-rate pegging policy. Aiyagari and Gertler [1985] use an overlapping generations model to make many of the points made in this paper, without discussing the possibility of stochastic sunspot equilibria. Sargent and Wallace [1981] and Obstfeld [1983] have also discussed related issues.This paper improves on Leeper by moving beyond his analysis of local linear approximations to the full model solution, as is essential if explosive sunspot equilibria are to be distinguished from explosive solutions to the Euler equations that can be ruled out as equilibria. It improves on the other cited work by pulling together into the context of one fairly transparent model discussion of phenomena previously discussed in isolation in very different models.We study a representative agent model in which there is no production or real savings, but transactions costs generate a demand for money. The government costlessly provides fiat money balances, imposes lump-sum taxes, and issues debt, but has no other role in the economy. We make restrictive assumptions about the form of the utility function and the form of a transactions cost term in the budget constraint.The model could be extended to include production, capital accumulation, non-neutral taxation, productive government expenditure, and a more general utility function without affecting the conclusions discussed in this paper. Indeed the model I informally matched to data in an earlier paper [1988] makes some such extensions. While such an extended model is more realistic, it is harder to solve. The version in my earlier paper [1988] was solved numerically and simulated. The bare-bones model of this paper allows an explicit analytic solution that may make its results easier to understand.This paper improved following comments from participants at seminars at Yale and the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank. Eric Leeper and James Robinson were particularly helpful. Comments from Michael Woodford led to important corrections and clarifications.     

OPTIMALLY UNIFORM COMMODITY TAXES IN A NON LINEAR DEMOGRAPHIC DEMAND MODEL

This paper derives a sufficient condition for optimally uniform commodity taxes within the demographically generalized RNLF'S demand functional form framework. This paper, besides admitting child subsidies, allows for non linear equivalence scales and demographically varying utility and demand functions. The derived condition is shown to yield some recent uniformity results as special cases.