可标准化服务行业对服务业发展的影响——基于两部门模型的分析

从理论上探讨了标准化促进服务业发展的内在机制。构建了两部门模型,分析了可标准化服务部门对服务业发展的影响。利用2003—2012年中国服务业的省际数据,运用面板模型对可标准化服务部门的溢出效应进行了估算,利用DEA方法对服务业各行业的全要素生产率进行了测算和分解。结果表明:可标准化服务部门要素的边际产出高于不可标准化服务部门,发展可标准化服务部门有利于服务业增长;可标准化服务行业对不可标准化服务行业的溢出效应为负,原因在于可标准化服务行业的全要素生产率较低,因此在当前发展阶段需要进一步对可标准化服务行业内部进行优化整合。     

Intangible Investment and Changing Sources of Growth in Korea

We examine how intangible investments change the sources of growth in the Korean economy. After constructing a novel industry‐level data set on intangibles, we estimate the contribution of intangible‐intensive industries and other industries to aggregate productivity growth in 1981–2008. The contribution of intangible‐intensive industries to aggregate labour productivity growth has significantly increased, whereas that of other industries has substantially decreased. The increased contribution of intangible‐intensive industries is mainly associated with total factor productivity growth rather than with input growth. This suggests that innovations related to intangible investments in these industries might become a new key source of productivity growth in Korea.     

Dutch disease and the oil boom and bust

This paper examines the impact of the oil price boom in the 1970s and the subsequent bust on non‐oil economic activity in oil‐dependent countries. During the boom, manufacturing exports and output increased significantly relative to non‐oil countries. These measures decreased gradually during the bust and subsequent period of low prices, displaying a positive relationship with oil prices. However, exports of agricultural products sharply decreased during the boom. Imports of all types of goods displayed strong pro‐cyclicality with respect to oil prices. The results suggest that increased local demand and investment spillovers from the windfall resulted in increased manufacturing activity.     

Fiscal Policy in Real Time*

In this paper, I estimate the ex ante or intentional cyclical stance of fiscal policy in OECD countries. I use the fiscal plans reported at the time of budgeting, together with other information available to fiscal policy‐makers in real time. Indeed, fiscal plans might be significantly different from ex post outcomes because governments do not have complete control over their implementation, which is influenced by several exogenous factors. When fiscal‐policy rules are estimated using real‐time data, I show in this paper that OECD countries have often planned a counter‐cyclical fiscal stance, especially during economic expansions. This contrasts with conventional findings based on actual data, which tend to point towards a‐cyclicality or pro‐cyclicality. Forecast errors for the government structural balance and the output gap play a central role in explaining the differences between estimates based on ex ante and ex post data.     

ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE: AN APPLICATION TO GREEK MANUFACTURING

To comprehend the impact of public infrastructure on economic performance this paper provides a measure of productivity growth as derived from duality theory. This productivity growth is decomposed into the components of technical change, returns to scale and the effects of public infrastructure, the variable of our interest. In an application, we opt for Greek manufacturing so as to investigate whether the decline in its growth rate is partly explained by public infrastructure. Despite some variation in the estimation results of shadow shares across industries, public infrastructure asserts a cost saving effect in most industries, though it also appears that traditional labour‐intensive industries with lower level of technological advancement do not benefit from the provision of public infrastructure. The estimation results further demonstrate that while public infrastructure enhanced productivity growth over the sample period for most industries, low infrastructure investment in the 1970s and the 1980s undermined productivity growth.     

The impact of environmental regulation on Chinese spatial development

We examine the relationship between environmental regulation and spatial development in China. Exploiting changes in national pollution standards for three industries, ammonia, paper and cement, we measure the impact of environmental regulation on industry productivity. Our results suggest that national pollution standards do not affect industry productivity, but they reallocate productivity spatially. We show that regulated industries located in developing cities increase their productivity compared to similar industries in other cities. This means that environmental regulation affects the spatial distribution of technology in China and might influence long‐term spatial development by reducing geographical disparities.     

PRIVATIZATION IN CHINA: TECHNOLOGY AND GENDER IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR

This paper examines the impact of privatization on gender discrimination in China across firms with different technology intensities. Using a comprehensive firm‐level survey, the paper identifies gender wage‐productivity differentials by directly estimating the relative productivity levels of workers from the production function of firms. The panel structure of the survey is taken advantage of by following firms that were fully state‐owned in the initial year, and distinguishing them from firms that were later privatized. The main results show that privatization was associated with an increase in relative productivity of female workers in high technology industries, and a reduction in relative productivity of female workers in low technology industries. Time varying coefficient results suggest that the improvements in gender outcomes in high technology industries may not be maintained in the long run as the relative wage and productivity ratios tend to deteriorate, potentially due to low supply of highly educated female workers. At the same time, outcomes in privatized low technology industries increase over time, lowering the wage and productivity gaps between male and female workers. (JEL J16, J31, P20)     

Endowments,Specialization, and Policy

The paper explores the relationship between industry shares in production and their determinants including factor endowments, technology, and government policies, in a GDP–function framework. We use a new international panel dataset on production and trade compiled by the World Bank. As an intermediate step we calculate Hicks‐neutral productivity indices that vary across industries, time, and countries. We find that own‐TFP is robustly associated with industry shares across time and countries and that, after correcting for these productivity differences, output shares are related to factor endowments (Rybczynski effects) in a plausible way. Once Rybczynski effects are controlled for, we find little evidence of demand‐side policies (import tariffs) affecting the allocation of resources; we find, however, more role for supply‐side policies as the relative size of capital‐intensive industries is positively associated with infrastructure–capital endowments.     

利用外资、环境约束与中国工业全要素生产率的增长——基于Malmquist指数与Malmquist-Luenberger指数的比较研究

利用2001—2009年我国36个行业的面板数据,运用Matlab软件,分别测算了不考虑环境约束的传统全要素生产率和考虑环境约束的环境全要素生产率。结果表明:高外资比重行业的环境全要素生产率相对更高;外资对行业传统生产率提高的促进作用较弱,而对环境全要素生产率和环境技术效率的提升具有高度显著的促进作用;外资企业资本有机构成对行业传统生产率的提升具有显著的促进作用,但对环境全要素生产率的提升具有显著的负面影响;环境管制显著抑制了工业传统生产率的提升,但对环境全要素生产率的提升具有明显的积极作用。     

The Determinants of Firm Profitability in Australian Manufacturing

This study provides new evidence on the determinants of the profitability of Australian manufacturing firms by analyzing a unique firm-level data set of firm performance over the period 1984-93. The panel nature of the data permits the estimation of dynamic profitability models over the business cycle, to test both the persistence and cyclicality of firm profitability. Econometric results suggest that lagged profitability is a significant determinant of current profit margins, and that industry concentration is positively related to firm profit margins. Also, profit margins are found to be procyciical in concentrated industries but counter-cyclical in less concentrated industries.     

Domestic agricultural value chain development and pro‐poor growth: A computable general equilibrium microsimulation application for the Democratic Republic of Congo

The economy of the Democratic Republic of Congo has gained momentum between 2003 and 2015, with a high annual growth rate of over 6%. However, poverty and employment outcomes were relatively poor, while inequality increased. This study uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) microsimulation model to study the pro‐poor effect of alternative growth strategy that is likely to strengthen the competitiveness of agro‐food products from the Congo. We experimented with three different scenarios: labor productivity growth, marketing efficiency, and transportation efficiency. The simulations demonstrated that improving the productivity of workers in agro‐food industries has not only produced strong relative pro‐poor effects, but also has the potential to lead to income convergence between rich and poor households. The analysis also revealed the underestimated contribution of agro‐food marketing and transportation efficiency. The major finding is that marketing efficiency favors the middle class. Efficiency gains in the transportation of agro‐food products generate strong pro‐poor effects in absolute and relative terms and are likely to be particularly effective in leading to income convergence. This policy has the potential not only to increase income and employment, but also to provide positive price impacts for both producers and consumers and benefits to all households, particularly low‐income households.     

THE SOURCES OF AGGREGATE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: US MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES, 1958–1996

The sources of aggregate productivity growth are explored using detailed data for four‐digit US manufacturing industries during 1958–96 and a decomposition formula that allows us to quantify the contribution of structural change. Labour productivity as well as total factor productivity are considered with either value‐added or employment shares serving as aggregation weights. It is shown that structural change generally works in favour of industries with increasing productivity. This effect is particularly strong in the years since 1990, in high‐tech industries and in durable goods producing industries. The impact of the computer revolution can be clearly identified.     

Can the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model Account for Traders' Expected Currency Returns?

This study uses survey data on traders' exchange rate forecasts to test whether their expected excess returns are related to the covariance between the exchange rate and consumption; as predicted by the consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM). The covariance is measured through the novel use of rolling windows of the realized covariance (both forward and backward looking) and testing is conducted with the cointegrated VAR. The model is able to account for expected returns with more plausible degrees of risk aversion, but only when using sufficiently long, backward‐looking measures of the covariance. This suggests that market participants assess risk, in part, based upon the pro‐cyclicality of returns, and infer it from experience in the recent past. There is also evidence that inclusion of the real exchange rate improves the plausibility of the estimates and the model fit.     

Competition and productivity growth in South Africa

This article shows that mark‐ups are significantly higher in South African manufacturing industries than they are in corresponding industries worldwide. We test for the consequences of this low‐level of product market competition on productivity growth. The results of the paper are that high mark‐ups have a large negative impact on productivity growth in South African manufacturing industry. Our results are robust to three different data sources, two alternative measures of productivity growth, and three distinct measures of the mark‐up. Controlling for potential endogeneity of regressors does not eliminate the findings.     

制造业劳动生产率变动及其源泉——基于中国2000-2007年规模以上制造业企业数据的估算

本文对中国2000-2007年制造业的劳动生产率情况进行了全面测算。结果表明,自进入21世纪以来,制造业总体劳动生产率增长速度很快,这一快速增长主要是由技术进步而非要素投入驱动的。劳动生产率的快速提高源自劳动密集型产业自身生产率的进步,并没有从产业结构转换上获取劳动生产率的提高。依赖劳动密集型产业的东部沿海地区劳动生产率的增长已有所放缓,而后起的中西部地区依赖资本密集型产业则显现出强劲的发展势头。由此看来,依赖劳动密集型产业的发展来实现经济发展的源泉已逐渐耗尽,我国制造业未来的发展和劳动生产率的提高需要产业结构的升级和调整。     

The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD

This paper addresses the topic of cyclicality in fiscal policy. In particular, we show that the level of cyclicality varies across spending categories and across OECD countries. In line with leading theories of fiscal cyclicality, we show that countries with volatile output and dispersed political power are the most likely to run procyclical fiscal policies. Wage government consumption is highlighted as the most important channel by which these variables affect fiscal cyclicality.     

GROWTH,INTER‐INDUSTRY AND INTRA‐INDUSTRY COMPETITION AND WELFARE*

In this paper we introduce strategic interaction between firms in an R&D growth model which captures both the intra‐industry competition between firms operating within an industry and the inter‐industry competition between firms in different industries. We show that the more substitutable the goods produced within each industry (across industries) are, that is, the more intense the intra‐industry (inter‐industry) competition, the higher is the growth rate. In the comparison between social optimum and a decentralized economy, it is shown that the market outcome is characterized by inefficiently high entry of firms within each industry and insufficient productivity growth.     

Is there Evidence of Learning‐by‐Exporting in Turkish Manufacturing Industries?

Exporting has always been thought of as one tool to improve productivity and, consequently, to spur economic growth in low‐ to middle‐income economies. However, empirical evidence of this so‐called ‘learning‐by‐exporting’ effect has been limited. This article determines whether learning‐by‐exporting is evident in two Turkish manufacturing sectors—the textile and apparel (T&A) and the motor vehicle and parts (MV&P) industries. A semi‐parametric estimator that controls for problems associated with simultaneity and unobserved plant heterogeneity is used to test the learning‐by‐exporting hypothesis. After controlling for these issues, our results suggest statistically stronger learning‐by‐exporting effects in the T&A than in the MV&P industry. The highly concentrated and capital‐intensive nature of the MV&P industry is the main reason for the lower learning‐by‐exporting effect in this sector. From a policy perspective, this implies that targeting export‐enhancing policies to industries with significant learning‐by‐exporting effects may lead to more productivity gains and would better stimulate an export‐led growth.     

Convergence in Productivity Across Industries: Some Results for New Zealand and Australia

New Zealand shares a wealth of common interests and experiences with Australia. This has tempted some to assume that these economies form an ‘Economic Club’, in which one would expect to identify common aggregate trends and growth experiences. In this paper we present results that test, and generally reject, convergence in labour productivity across Australia and New Zealand, using both aggregate and disaggregate, industry‐level data. We find that only two industries satisfy our definition of Conditional Convergence (Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing and Cultural and Recreational Services), and that the Mining and Wholesale Trade industries have particularly important roles to play in explaining the measured divergence. Cointegration‐based tests reveal more stochastic trends governing Australian productivity than in New Zealand. The evidence suggests, therefore, that the underlying growth processes of the two economies are fundamentally different, thereby questioning the relevance of aggregate comparisons between them. New evidence using industry‐level data does not, therefore, resolve the aggregate‐level ‘non‐convergence puzzle’ identified here, and elsewhere.     

Vertical Integration,Firms’ Entry,Exit, Strategic Shifts,Age, and The Productivity Growth in Korea's Core Growth‐Leading Industries

This study attempts to measure the impact of firms’ entry, exit, strategic shifts, and age on the productivity growth of Korea's three core growth‐leading industries and their vertical integration with capital share (VI) firms and non‐VI (NVI) firms in view of the 2008 global financial crisis and the institutional push by the Korean Government. A stochastic frontier production model was applied to firm‐level panel data from 2006 to 2011 for Korea's automobile, electronics and general machinery industries. The results show that exogenous shocks to the market triggered large‐scale resource reallocations from firms with declining productivity to firms with less declining or rising productivity, and market share reallocation between VI firms and NVI firms. The Korean Government's institutional push led the productivity growth of NVI firms to reach their highest levels in 2010. In a VI structure, a structure comprising VI firms only, the agency problem dominated the synergies of secure supply chains and saving on transaction costs, while NVI firms endeavoured to raise their productivity to step into a VI structure to secure stable supply chains, only to find their R&D initiatives stagnated once they took on the VI structure. Therefore, efficient resource reallocation is hindered by the agency problem within the bounds of vertically integrated industrial structures.