世界经济迎来新一轮复苏

《世界经济展望》调高世界经济增长预期 IMF4月21日发布的报告在预测今明两年世界经济快速增长的同时,也指出了全球经济增长面临的几大风险,包括:美国巨额经常项目赤字和财政赤字对经济增长形成风险,全球利率上升的时机和幅度如把握不当可能给经济增长带来振荡,今后几年全球财政状况依然困难,以及多哈回合贸易谈判要达成实质性的协议仍存在严重障碍等。另外世界石油价格攀升和恐怖活动增多是世界     

财政赤字必然导致通货膨胀

有的同志说,财政赤字不一定引起通货膨胀。理由是:(1)我国财政赤字,一般由银行垫支。财政收支大部分通过转帐进行。这样,银行为财政赤字垫支的货币,相当部分表现为存款形态。(2)由财政支出(包括赤字支出)的现金,又可能通过储蓄回笼,表现为存款增长;或是通过商品销售回笼,表现为企业存款增长或贷款下降。(3)国家可以发行公债来弥补财改赤字。我认为这些理由值得商榷。     

10500亿元:财政赤字破万亿 风险可承受

国务院总理温家宝3月5日在政府工作报告中说,2010年拟安排财政赤字10500亿元.这是新中国成立60年来财政赤字首度破万亿元. 积极财政继续发力 财政赤字意味着政府花的钱比挣的钱多.增加赤字,是政府调节宏观经济、促进经济平稳发展的一种有效手段. 在亚洲金融危机中,中国曾成功运用过增发国债,扩大赤字的办法刺激经济增长.而面对百年一遇的国际金融危机,包括中国在内的许多国家都启用了"赤字财政"政策.     

我国财政赤字与货币供给量关系的经验研究

1998年以来我国实施积极财政政策刺激投资需求,促使我国自2003年以来连续3年超过9%的经济增长。与此同时,我国经济运行在宏观层面上具有两个显著的特点:(1)财政赤字迅速增加,财政赤字从1986年的82.9亿元增加到了2005年的2280亿元;(2)货币供给量增长持续上升,我国广义货币的增长始终在GDP增长速度的两倍以上,m2对GDP的比率已达到180%。本文研究我国财政赤字增加与货币供给增加的关系以及长期以来实行赤字财政政策对我国货币供给总量的影响,旨在说明赤字财政政策在促进经济增长的同时,我国也面临财政赤字货币化,货币量超额供给以及由此带来的通货膨胀压力。     

美国主权债务风险探讨及启示

欧元区主权债务危机引起公众对发达经济体主权债务问题的担忧,并警醒了人们对美国主权债务风险的关注。本文通过分析美国财政赤字率、债务负担率、经常项目赤字占GDP比重、经济增长率、国债收益率等多个指标,度量美国主权债务风险,并提出我国应对美国主权债务危机的对策。     

全球主权债务危机不断蔓延

2010年以来,从希腊到欧元区和英国,巨额的政府赤字和主权债务危机在欧洲经济体内如同"毒瘤"开始"发作"和扩散,全球范围的政府赤字和主权债务风险面进一步扩大,受其影响许多国家开始审视因经济刺激计划带来的财政赤字和债务问题     

试论财政赤字的弥补方式及其经济效应

试论财政赤字的弥补方式及其经济效应李万甫在现代商品货币经济的社会，财政收支体现为货币的收支活动，财政上的失衡（主要指赤字）必须寻求一定的资金来源作为弥补。弥补财政赤字的资金来源的不同，赤字在社会经济生活中所产生的影响和起到的效应是不同的。而赤字的弥补...     

要重视“自然”财政赤字

从1979年到现在,我国财政收支连年赤字,赤字数额与年俱增。形成这种局面的原因是多方面的。其中有追求高速度增长实行扩张政策造成的赤字;有管理不善,经济效益下降和财政支出失控造成的赤字;还有在财政收支运行中因物价上涨形成的“自然”财政赤字。对前两种赤字,目前人们已有一定认识,但是对“自然”财政赤字却没有给予应有的重视,有些人甚至还缺乏认识。     

正视美国“财政悬崖”的预警效应

美国"财政悬崖"危机再起,警示我国财政金融风险不可小觑。本文以我国经济运行为背景,在客观地评价了积极财政政策的同时,提出在加快经济民主化进程中,回归稳健财政赤字比"赤字幻觉"更重要,要把拉动内需作为助推经济增长的引擎,使企业科技创新真正成为增加财政收入的源泉,着力防控银行信用过度扩张危及国家财政安全。     

特朗普政府经济政策与美国国债的增长前景

发行国债是美国联邦政府以债务融资方式弥补财政赤字的主要手段。由于美国的全球霸权以及美元的国际货币地位的影响,包括外国政府等诸多国际投资者持有大量美国国债。在特朗普政府执政期间,由于财政赤字的扩张状况未能扭转,特别是受到减税等政策的影响,美国国债持续大幅增长。在未来一段时期,由于美国政府的赤字传统以及美国政府的医保等刚性支出增加等因素的影响,美国政府财政赤字状况难以扭转,并将由此导致国债继续大幅增长。这不仅将侵蚀美国的金融霸权,对美国国内政治运作产生影响,还会滋生经济风险并影响外国债权人的资产安全。     

Public Sector Downsizing: An Introduction

Authorities throughout the developing world are turning to downsizingin an effort to reduce budget deficits and address the inefficienciesengendered by state-led development strategies. Because large-scaleinvoluntary dismissals are often politically difficult, a voluntaryapproach to reductions in public sector employment is increasinglypopular among developing-country governments, multilateral organizations,and donor countries. This article (and, more generally, theresearch project on Public Sector Retrenchment) attempts tosketch a protocol for public sector downsizing that takes intoaccount the costs and benefits for the workers and the economy. After reviewing the international experience with downsizing,the article addresses five questions: how to identify the redundantworkers, how to predict their losses from separation, how todesign compensation and assistance packages, how to assess thefinancial and economic returns to downsizing, and how to dealwith downsizing in one-company towns. Based on the answers tothese questions, a decision tree is proposed.     

Twin deficits and the sustainability of public debt and exchange rate policies in Lebanon

This paper examines empirically using time series econometric models the sustainability of public debt and exchange rate policies, as well as, the relationship between current account and budget deficits in the emerging small open economy of Lebanon. The empirical results point to unsustainable debt and exchange rate policies. Other empirical results support the existence of a uni-directional causal relationship, in the short run, between the budget and current account deficits, indicating that rising fiscal deficits have started to put even more strain on the current account deficits and on the national public debt. To avoid a future depreciation of the exchange rate and perhaps a fiscal and currency crises, the government will have to timely introduce austerity measures to curb the negative implications of its rising budget and current account deficits and debt on Lebanon's economy.     

Financial intermediation and the supply of liquidity

I study the role of financial intermediaries in supplying liquidity to the real economy. Firms hold liquid assets to meet unanticipated expenses. Financial intermediaries supply liquidity by pooling partially liquid assets, but their ability to commit future funds depends on their capital. When liquidity is scarce, there is a positive liquidity premium and investment is inefficiently low. Bank losses raise the liquidity premium and reduce investment. I analyze the optimal supply of public liquidity and find that when private liquidity is scarce the government should issue bonds for their liquidity properties, providing justification for countercyclical budget deficits.     

Banks’ earnings: Empirical evidence of the influence of economic and financial market factors

The structure of income is a foremost address within research on banks’ performance, especially with regard to effects on the resilience of banks’ earnings. Indeed, given their central position in the economy, banks shall thrive to generate sustainable earnings and control for their potential volatility. Existing studies mostly consider the weight of non‐net interest income (nonNII) as opposed to the traditional NII income source. Such aggregated nonNII is found to increase earnings risk but more granular studies conflict. We propose an original investigation of the influence of economic and financial conditions on various income types, assuming that performance may actually be driven by both the income structure and external conditions. We focus European banks, which have long been allowed to diversify beyond retail banking. Out of a straight panel framework, we question if the influence of external conditions spreads to earnings components other than credit losses and trading income and if it does allow for diversification benefits among components. We find that each component actually evolves owing to its own equation. Furthermore, effects of single variables may cumulate over different components of earnings (e.g. GDP) or provide with diversification benefits. These effects are all the more important since they are not mitigated by operating expenses. Hence, over a regarded period, banks’ performance depends upon their structure of income and upon volatilities and correlations of influential variables. Besides controlling for ex‐ante volatility, our approach shows that a given structure of income is not necessarily more resilient than others but that selected non‐banking income may support a higher stability of Earnings     

Are there diversification benefits of increasing noninterest income in the Chinese banking industry?

This paper assesses the potential diversification benefits of the increasing reliance on nontraditional business activities based on data from the Chinese banking industry in 1986–2008. At the aggregate level, there are diversification benefits of the increase in noninterest income. However, noninterest income has higher volatility and cyclicality than net interest income, and the marginal benefit of diversification decreases with the increase in noninterest income. At the bank level, the correlation coefficients of the growth rates of net interest income and noninterest income are mostly negative, which also suggests that there are diversification benefits of increasing the noninterest income. However, further model analysis indicates that the effect of the noninterest income share on the Chinese banking industry's revenue and risk is not significant. Overall, our findings suggest that noninterest income diversifies bank revenue, but increased reliance on noninterest income may worsen the risk/return trade-off for the Chinese banking industry.     

Tax reform: Analyzing a comprehensive income tax

This paper includes an analysis of the general costs and benefits associated with the introduction of a comprehensive income tax. The introduction of a comprehensive income tax may result in such benefits as simplicity, horizontal equity, and neutrality that may, in turn, be offset by the costs in vertical equity, implementation losses, and efficiency losses. The solution to the question of the desirability of the comprehensive income tax may turn upon the nature of these costs and benefits as well as the philosophy of tax reform that is adopted.     

民生财政视角下国企红利征缴和流向问题探析

随着国企利润大幅增加,国家适时征缴红利,不仅符合市场经济发展的客观规律,体现资本作为生产要素按贡献参与分配的原则,而且有利于提高投资效率。目前,征缴后的国企红利主要流向国企,在体制内循环利用,并没有做到＂取之于民,用之于民＂。根据国企经营目标的＂公共性＂原则,国企分红应扩大民生分配的比例,还利于民。为此,应逐步建立国有资本经营预算制度,妥善处理好国有资本经营预算和公共财政预算的关系。     

Ending Food Subsidies: Nutritional, Welfare, and Budgetary Effects

Governments faced with growing budget deficits are cutting manysocial expenditures, including costly food subsidy programsthat have provided benefits to the rich and poor alike. Becausethe poor spend a larger share of their income on food than dothe rich, however, such cuts usually have negative distributional,welfare and nutritional effects. This article discusses themethodological issues in estimating the effects of price andtax reforms in developing countries. I apply a model that Deaton(1988) developed to estimate price elasticities from cross-sectiondata, the only reliable and detailed data available in mostdeveloping countries. I use measures of both real income andnutrition to evaluate the effects of changes in the Moroccanfood subsidy program. The analysis suggests that subsidies oninferior foods not consumed by the wealthy would reduce thewelfare costs to the poor and limit the budgetary expendituresrequired.     

商业银行拓展地方政府融资平台业务的前景与策略

商业银行发展政府融资平台业务,能够通过放贷获得经济收益,提高市场份额,密切银政关系,提升市场美誉度。但地方政府融资平台可能给商业银行带来责任主体模糊、杠杆率偏高、偿付风险、流动性风险、项目合规风险和政策性风险等风险;在金融体系层面,融资平台贷款信用承诺实际上是商业银行的自我授信。如果风险控制不当,政府债务风险、房地产开发企业债务风险等有可能集中于商业银行,使后者成为风险集聚的洼地。发展融资平台业务,应合理利用资产证券化,严格授信制度,采用银团贷款,加强财务监督,以及探索投资市政债和利用直投方式灵活介入项目等。     

A quantitative analysis of inflation as a tax on the underground economy

Inflation rates are more dispersed and are persistently higher in developing countries. This paper quantifies the importance of the public-finance motive for inflation in the presence of a tax-evading sector, the underground economy. The approach is motivated by the observation that the underground economy is especially large in poor countries. The analysis builds on a general equilibrium monetary model with two production sectors, where income in one of the sectors cannot be taxed. A benevolent government finances its budget using an optimal combination of the income tax rate and the inflation rate. The model is first calibrated to the U.S. economy and is then used for a cross-country simulation. The resulting relationships between the size of an underground economy, inflation rate, income tax rate and the share of seigniorage in the government revenue rationalize the cross-country data quantitatively well.