Toward a theory of honesty and trust among communicating autonomous agents

This article outlines, through a number of examples, a method that can be used by autonomous agents to decide among potential messages to send to other agents, without having to assume that a message must be truthful and that it must be believed by the hearer. The main idea is that communicative behavior of autonomous agents is guided by the principle of economic rationality, whereby agents transmit messages to increase the effectiveness of interaction measured by their expected utilities. We are using a recursive, decision-theoretic formalism that allows agents to model each other and to infer the impact of a message on its recipient. The recursion can be continued into deeper levels, and agents can model the recipient modeling the sender in an effort to assess the truthfulness of the received message. We show how our method often allows the agents to decide to communicate in spite of the possibility that the messages will not be believed. In certain situations, on the other hand, our method shows that the possibility of the hearer not believing what it hears makes communication useless. Our method thus provides the rudiments of a theory of how honesty and trust could emerge through rational, selfish behavior.This research was supported, in part, by the Department of Energy under contract DG-FG-86NE37969, and by the National Science Foundation under grant IRI-9015423.     

Analyzing a quantitative coordination relationship

Coordination is a crucial behavior in cooperative distributed problem solving (CDPS). Analyzing coordination requires an understanding of the interplay between the agents, their problem, and their environment. The core behaviors ofdistributed coordination in CDPS systems are the coherent specification and scheduling of tasks over the set of distributed agents working on sets of interrelated problems. The complexity of, and uncertainty about, the problem interrelationships make distributed task coordination difficult. This article describes a causal model of this process that links the interrelationships, calledcoordination relationships, to the local scheduling constraints of distributed agents. Besides coordination relationships, environmental uncertainty and the lack of infinite computational resources also make distributed coordination difficult.It is not only the presence or absence of a coordination relationship that is important, but its quantitative properties: how likely is it to appear, how significant is its effect, and so on. These aspects determine the usefulness of a particular coordination relationship in the context defined by an environment, a problem to be solved, and an agent architecture. This article discusses the analysis of coordination relationships, using as an example our abstract model for thefacilitates relationship. We detail the derivation and assumptions of this model and apply it to the design of a generalized coordination module that is separate from, and interfaces cleanly with, the local scheduler of a CDPS agent. A set of simulation experiments is described that test our assumptions and design process in the coordination of a group of real-time problem-solving agents.     

PORTFOLIOS OF AMERICAN OPTIONS UNDER GENERAL PREFERENCES: RESULTS AND COUNTEREXAMPLES

We consider the optimal exercise of a portfolio of American call options in an incomplete market. Options are written on a single underlying asset but may have different characteristics of strikes, maturities, and vesting dates. Our motivation is to model the decision faced by an employee who is granted options periodically on the stock of her company, and who is not permitted to trade this stock. The first part of our study considers the optimal exercise of single options. We prove results under minimal assumptions and give several counterexamples where these assumptions fail—describing the shape and nesting properties of the exercise regions. The second part of the study considers portfolios of options with differing characteristics. The main result is that options with comonotonic strike, maturity, and vesting date should be exercised in order of increasing strike. It is true under weak assumptions on preferences and requires no assumptions on prices. Potentially the exercise ordering result can significantly reduce the complexity of computations in a particular example. This is illustrated by solving the resulting dynamic programming problem in a constant absolute risk aversion utility indifference model.     

Headquarters parenting advantage in Chinese MNEs: The moderating role of top managers’ political and International experience

This study explores the relevance of top management teams’ experience to support the headquarters parenting advantage in the context of Chinese multinationals. Specifically, it studies how the political and international experience of headquarters’ top management teams moderates the relationship between headquarters involvement in knowledge transfer processes – a key aspect of value creation in the parenting advantage logic – and the extent of reverse knowledge transfer from subsidiaries. Based on the data from two complementary surveys of senior managers in 99 Chinese multinationals and managers in their 177 subsidiaries, our analysis indicates a contrasting effect of top managers’ experience as their political experience weakens, but their international experience strengthens the positive effect of headquarters involvement in reverse knowledge transfer. This study contributes to the parenting advantage logic, by introducing the relevance of different top managers’ experiences, and to our understanding of top management teams in the context of both reverse knowledge transfer and Chinese multinationals, particularly by showing the important implications of top management teams’ experience for Chinese enterprises’ international strategies.     

基于稀疏系数和多级搜索策略的信号参数估计

参数估计是盲信号处理的关键环节,对后续信号的侦察处理意义重大。针对当前压缩域信号参数估计问题,提出了一种新的信号参数估计算法,利用稀疏系数在不同测量矩阵中相同稀疏字典下位置相同的特点,实现了信号参数估计的区间预判;基于理论分析确定了多级搜索策略的最优级次,实现了稀疏字典原子数目的降低。仿真结果表明,算法在提高信号参数估计精度的同时显著降低了运算复杂度。     

On the origins of comparative advantage

This paper proposes a simple theory of international trade with endogenous productivity differences across countries. The core of our analysis lies in the determinants of the division of labor. We consider a world economy comprising two large countries, with a continuum of goods and one factor of production, labor. Each good is characterized by its complexity, defined as the number of tasks that must be performed to produce one unit. There are increasing returns to scale in the performance of each task, which creates gains from specialization, and uncertainty in the enforcement of each contract, which create transaction costs. The trade-off between these two forces pins down the size of productive teams across sectors in each country. Under free trade, the country where teams are larger specializes in the more complex goods. In our model, it is the country where the product of institutional quality and human per worker capital is larger. Hence, better institutions and more educated workers are complementary sources of comparative advantage in the more complex industries.     

Proximity at a distance: The relationship between foreign subsidiary co-location and MNC headquarters board interlock formation

Corporations seek various relationships, such as board interlocks, with other firms to reduce resource dependencies. The consistent theoretical expectation and empirical finding that physical proximity is an important driver for board interlock formation is seemingly at odds with the emerging and growing literature on transnational board interlock ties. We argue that the effect of proximity on multinational corporation (MNC) board interlock formation can also be attributed to the firms’ internationalization strategy, namely, when they have co-located subsidiaries in foreign markets. We call this “proximity at a distance”. We test our assumptions on a dataset covering almost 43,000 board interlocks among MNC headquarters and their 12 million subsidiary co-location pairs. We confirm that proximity among headquarters increases the odds of interlocking but also find robust evidence that co-located subsidiaries also increase firms’ propensity to interlock, particularly for transnational board interlocks. Our results help provide an explanation for the “paradox of distance” by showing that the interlock between two distant MNCs may be driven by proximity to their foreign subsidiaries. As such, we illustrate how MNCs’ resource-dependent strategic responses can occur at the headquarters level to address uncertainties experienced at the subsidiary level.     

机载传感器无引导搜索策略研究

针对机载传感器搜索任务,将无引导搜索问题分为搜索区域目标出现概率未知和已知两种情况进行了讨论。在搜索区域仅有一个目标和忽略传感器搜索视场切换的前提假设下,在搜索时间最短的要求下,提出了一种最优搜索策略,即任一视场的搜索次数与该视场中目标出现概率的平方根成正比。并通过仿真实例表现了该搜索策略：未知目标出现概率的情况下是一种顺序搜索,而已知目标出现概率的情况下是优先、多次搜索目标出现概率较大视场的同时,还无遗漏的兼顾搜索其他视场。该策略使传感器尽快满足任务要求,缩减工作时间。     

一种低复杂度的降低MIMO—OFDM峰平比的CARI方法

天线旋转取反算法(CARI)是降低MIMO-OFDM系统峰平功率比(PAPR)的一种性能较优的算法,不足之处是其迭代次数很大。CARI的次最优算法逐次次最优天线旋转取反(SS-CARI)算法虽然可以减小迭代次数,但性能损失又比较大。针对这一问题,提出了一种用滑动窗搜索旋转取反组合的次最优CARI方法,利用滑动窗搜索局部最优的旋转取反组合,既可以避免整体的遍历搜索大大减小CARI算法的计算复杂度,又可以改善SS-CARI的PAPR减小性能。仿真结果表明,该方法能够在系统复杂度与PAPR降低性能上取得很好的折衷。     

修正Kalman滤波多带UWB信道估计改进方法

针对多带超宽带(UWB)系统中修正Kalman滤波算法复杂度高的缺陷,提出一种低复杂度的修正Kalman滤波改进方法。该方法中UWB信道采用自回归模型(AR)建模,利用导频跟踪时变信道衰减因子,通过Kalman滤波和频域分段最小均方误差(MMSE)算法同时跟踪信道的时域相关性和频域相关性,提高了系统性能,降低了计算复杂度。仿真结果表明,和修正的Kalman滤波方法相比,在估计精度损失很小的情况下,所提方法极大降低了计算复杂度,提高了系统整体的估计性能。     

The Emergence of Consolidated Service Centers in Health Care

Hospital supply chains can be conceptualized as complex systems with a large number of players and a high degree of interrelatedness among them, creating an environment that is difficult to optimize and manage. In recent years, a consolidated service center (CSC) strategy (sometimes also referred to as “self‐distribution” strategy), has emerged in some healthcare systems, showing a strong potential for reducing the complexity in a hospital's supply chain to achieve high levels of performance and innovation. We examine three CSCs using a qualitative case method to understand the unique characteristics of this supply chain strategy, and how CSCs move hospital supply chains toward a less complex state. We find that CSCs demonstrate characteristics that distinguish them from other supply chain strategies. These characteristics enable the CSC to orchestrate supply base rationalization and disintermediation initiatives in the hospital's supply chain to effectively reduce the number of components and interrelatedness in this complex system.     

Managing Co-occurring Conflicts in Teams

This study extends prior research on conflict in teams by showing that a team’s chances of appropriately managing one type of conflict depends on what other types of conflicts are co-occurring. We interviewed 44 managers from different industries who had recently participated in a negotiating team, asking about within-team conflicts and how those conflicts were managed. The data showed that task conflict increased the likelihood that teams managed co-occurring procedural conflicts appropriately, but that procedural conflicts decreased the likelihood that teams managed co-occurring task conflicts appropriately. These results explain why some teams fail to realize the theorized benefits of task conflict and why procedural conflict does not always have a deleterious impact on team performance: The co-occurrence of these different types of conflict can alter what strategy a team uses to manage conflicts.     

Goals,Conflict, Politics,and Performance of Cross-Functional Sourcing Teams—Results from a Social Team Experiment

Strategic sourcing is carried out in cross-functional teams to account for the complexity and multidimensionality of modern procurement decisions. However, such teams not only enable the integration of distinct interdependent skill sets and viewpoints, they are also characterized by functional goal misalignment. We focus on the resulting behavioral challenges, namely conflict and politics, and their effects on team satisfaction and rationality, which ultimately leads to observed outcomes. We test our hypotheses in a structural equation model based on data gathered from 468 participants in a social team experiment. We find a mediated effect of goal misalignment on political behavior via two types of team conflict. Political behavior, in turn, obstructs rational team sourcing decisions and reduces team members’ satisfaction with the process. Our study indicates that behavioral challenges in the framework of Organizational Buying Behavior not only co-occur but affect each other via mediation. Hence, managers need to closely monitor the escalation chains’ origin, task conflict, which constitutes a necessary condition for further emotional dissent and political biasing. We contribute to the understanding of the challenges in cross-functional sourcing teams, thereby providing advice to executives in their pursuit to rationalize and improve sourcing team decisions and their outcomes.     

Modeling and Simulating Coordination in Projects

A main challenge in managing projects is identification and understanding of interactions between subtasks. These interactions give rise to dependencies between activities in the project plan. The resulting interdependence between members of the project team requires them to coordinate extensively during project execution. Project managers need a systematic methodology for describing and analyzing coordination requirements on project teams. This need is not met in traditional tools for project planning and scheduling. In this article, we describe an object-oriented framework for modeling projects and a methodology for formalizing these models such that they can be used for discrete event simulation of information processing and coordination in project execution. Our modeling framework represents projects in terms of objective (requirements), product (solution deliverables), process (activities), and organization (participants and relations). We then use matrix techniques to explicate the constraints between project requirements and deliverables (complexity), the contingencies in information flow between activities (uncertainty), and the resulting coordination requirements between project team members. The model and coordination measures can be used as input for simulation of project execution and give predictions for the probable effects of carrying out proposed changes in planning and managing projects. To illustrate how enterprise modeling and analysis can inform project planing and execution, we apply our framework and methodology to model and simulate a simplified project for development of hydraulic systems. Our simulation results demonstrate how project performance is contingent on the fit between the project policies and the objectives and preferences of the project team.     

Macrocognition in Collaboration: Analyzing Processes of Team Knowledge Building with CoPrA

Sophisticated collaboration software allows teams that are dispersed in space and time to work together. Nevertheless, to reach their common goals, distributed teams—and the professional facilitators who support them by intervention techniques—are faced with the communication challenges arising from dispersed settings, including task coordination and effective information exchange. When distributed teams use collaboration software, however, traces of their collaboration are left behind. These traces provide an underused source of data which can be analyzed and be used to inform the design of interventions aimed at improving collaboration in distributed teams. This paper investigates the untapped potential for understanding collaboration, and in particular, the macro-cognitive processes of team knowledge building. These processes rely on information shared and knowledge structures developed by team members which are also referred to as team cognition. We performed a qualitative content analysis applying the COllaboration PRocess Analysis technique, CoPrA, and a framework for measuring team knowledge building. Communication data was collected from 18 participants assigned to six distributed teams. While working collaboratively on a problem-solving task teams were supported with synchronous collaboration software. The results show that by using a cognitive perspective on teams, all the hypothesized processes of team knowledge building could be identified in collaboration traces. Moreover, our analysis shows that CoPrA enables us to identify key characteristics of (1) team behavior, e.g., whether teams are rather solution-oriented or problem minded, show consensus-oriented behavior, withhold evaluative arguments, discuss ideas in breadth and/or depth, or spend much effort on coordination as well as (2) behavior of team members, e.g., who show non-participation, are willing to share or predominantly guide coordination. Future research could adopt this approach to improve our understanding of the dynamics of collaboration patterns and its effects on team performance to inform collaboration facilitation in distributed settings.     

Birds of a feather get lost together: new venture team composition and performance

This study explores the relationship between new venture team composition and new venture persistence and performance over time. We examine the team characteristics of a 5-year panel study of 202 new venture teams and new venture performance. Our study makes two contributions. First, we extend earlier research concerning homophily theories of the prevalence of homogeneous teams. Using structural event analysis we demonstrate that team members?? start-up experience is important in this context. Second, we attempt to reconcile conflicting evidence concerning the influence of team homogeneity on performance by considering the element of time. We hypothesize that higher team homogeneity is positively related to short term outcomes, but is less effective in the longer term. Our results confirm a difference over time. We find that more homogeneous teams are less likely to be higher performing in the long term. However, we find no relationship between team homogeneity and short-term performance outcomes.     

DSSS中基于重叠变换的自适应干扰抑制算法及仿真分析

提出了一种基于重叠变换的自适应干扰抑制算法，利用调制重叠变换（MLT）把接收机信号映射到变换域进行抗干扰处理，它可以有效地把干扰能量集中在有限的变换域子带（Transform Bins）中，与基于DFT、DCT等块变换相比有更好的滤波效果。由于可以使用基于重叠变换的快速算法，因此它结构简单，节省计算量。仿真结果表明，基于MLT的变换域处理方案可以有效地改善系统性能。     

Impact of Sales Call Adaptiveness and Customer Willingness on Sales Call Length: A Cross-Country Study of India,China, Korea,and Philippines

ABSTRACT

In this empirical study across four countries (India, China, Korea, and Philippines), we examine the impact of sales call adaptiveness and customer willingness on sales call length (duration) of salespersons in these four countries. Sales call length as well as sales call quality—although important constructs in sales—are still underresearched in the domain of sales management. Our study in these four emerging markets sheds new light on enhancing sales force effectiveness. Using survey data from 847 salespersons in four countries, we analyze using multivariate analysis, and our results suggest that sales force effectiveness can be enhanced by giving them the autonomy to decide the sales call length based on the prospect quality. We also demonstrate that salespeople indulging in sales-oriented behaviors may be detrimental to the long-term relationship with customers. Emphasis on relational sales approaches would reduce sales practices such as pitching products or services to unwilling customers. Our study also highlights the interactive role of customer willingness and sales adaptiveness. We found several inter-country differences across sales practices in four countries, which have several meaningful managerial implications.     

Ambiguity in Problem Framing as a Barrier to Collective Actions: Some Hints from Groundwater Protection Policy in the Apulia Region

Differences in problem framing and understanding are unavoidable in multi-actor decision-making processes, deeming ambiguous problem definitions and actions. The presence of ambiguity may have diverse implications. On the one hand, a diversity in frames can enhance the co-production of knowledge offering opportunities for innovative solutions. On the other hand, the presence of ambiguity can be a source of discrepancies or conflict in a group, hampering the implementation and/or reducing the effectiveness of environmental policy. This work demonstrates that neglecting ambiguity in problem framing leads decision-actors to simplify the interaction space by ignoring the role of some of the other decision-actors and/or making wrong assumptions about their mental models. Moreover, they act as if the system is as simple as the decision-actors presume it to be. To demonstrate these hypotheses, a Causal Loop Diagram method was implemented to investigate the policy resistance mechanisms hampering the implementation of sustainable groundwater abstraction policy in the Apulia Region (Southern Italy).     

Empirical investigation of the domain knowledge and team advertising creativity typology: The case of Nescafe coffee

This study proposes and tests a typology of domain knowledge and team creativity by empirically assessing the effects of varying levels of domain knowledge on the creative outcomes of the team members. Two separate studies were conducted to address this inquiry. Study one aimed at determining the level of domain knowledge of each team member in the teams. Eleven groups comprising of thirty-three business students designed eleven advertisements for the products of their own choices. Utilizing the situation judgment test and the grade earned in the advertising course, four teams were formed comprising two balanced and two imbalanced domain knowledge teams. To test the hypotheses of the study, these teams were asked to develop a print advertisement for Nescafe for the summer season (Study Two). Upon creativity assessment of the final ads by twenty-six independent creative personnel in a total of seven advertising agencies in Pakistan, the results revealed that a balanced team with low domain knowledge outperformed the other balanced team with high domain knowledge. Further, unexpectedly, one of the imbalanced domain knowledge teams also outperformed the balanced high domain knowledge team. The study in the light of extant literature presents worthwhile implications for academia and practitioners.