金融腐败:非规范融资行为的交易特征和体制动因

本文以改革进程中的非规范融资交易为研究对象 ,通过银行 -借款企业动态博弈和经验研究 ,归纳如下主要结论 :第一 ,在金融交易中 ,金融机构的腐败体现为利用资金配置权进行的两类寻租行为 ;第二 ,银行的寻租程度取决于改革进程中中央银行和财政对银行的转移支付和内控制度建设的相对力度比较 ,因而遏制融资腐败的方法是严格转移支付纪律 ,加强内控制度 ;第三 ,企业借款行为是在自筹资金和银行借款间进行的相对成本比较 ,企业被动选择行贿 (交租 ) ,因而其真实融资成本远远高于名义法定金融机构贷款利率 ;第四 ,由于存在转移支付机制 ,企业与银行的非规范金融交易的实质是对中央银行和财政转移支付的分割 ;第五 ,根据以上结论 ,民间借贷与正规金融价格实际是均衡的 ,不能简单定义民间借贷是高利贷 ,如果如此定义 ,则正规金融也同样具备高利贷特征。     

论规范非正规民间金融的制度安排

一、非正规民间金融概述1．非正规民间金融的定义。非正规民间金融,即民间融资,指非金融机构的自然人、企业及其他经济主体（财政除外）之间以货币资金为标的的价值转移及本息支付,是游离于国家正规金融机构之外的以资金筹措为主的融资活动。目前它主要服务于民营经济,有家庭融资（家庭消费、个体户等）和企业融资。     

网上支付风险及其防范

随着计算机网络的普及和银行终端设备的普遍设立,以及手机、电话银行业务的展开,电子支付越来越深入经济生活的各个方面。网上支付是电子支付的一种形式。广义地讲,网上支付是以互联网为基础,利用银行所支持的某种数字金融工具,发生在购买者和销售者之间的金融交换,而实现从买者到金融机构、商家之间的在线货币支付、现金流转、资金清算、查询统计等过程,由此为电子商务服务和其它服务提供金融支持。目前我国网上支付的模式主要有通过实体银行的网上银行直接转账,通过第三方支付平台进行支付,以虚拟货币进行支付等,其中以第三方支付发展最为…     

钱荒：商业银行形枉影曲？

钱荒,字面意义是资金严重不足,而实际情况却是热钱过多。在中国,所谓钱荒只是一个片面的概括,准确的说法应是实体经济钱荒与虚拟经济钱多并存。金融机构的钱并没有放在实体经济中,积极投资国有企业、大型企业,而这些拥有充足资金的人纷纷投资高风险高利润行业,比如房地产。货币存量比重加大,资金流动性减弱,信贷资源稀缺。而正是由于信贷资源的稀缺性,影子银行应运而生,变相补充了传统银行信用扩张渠道。2013年上半年社会融资规模为10．15万亿元,委托贷款的占比达到11％,信托贷款的占比为12．1％,二者作为影子银行的主要构成共占据社会融资总额的23．1％。而2012年同期社会融资规模为7．78万亿元,委托贷款占比6．2％,信托贷款占1：g4％,二者之和也仅仅占据总额的10．2％。影子银行在一年之内,便从萌芽发展到占据举足轻重的地位。然而,资金总是会流向有利可图的领域。由此便形成一种怪象,以商业银行为主体,影子银行紧随其后,资金去向直指房地产等长期资产,而非流入实体经济。因此,钱荒不是真正的缺少资金,而是体现在短期流动性方面。     

以公司债券为抓手推进金融回归实体经济

改革开放35年来，中国建立了外植型金融体系，它有着积极意义，但也存在一系列弊端。要发挥市场机制在配置金融资源方面的决定性作用，必须改革中国金融体系，使其回归实体经济。金融回归实体经济的真实含义是，扩大实体企业和城乡居民的金融选择权利，使他们能够与商业银行等金融机构在金融市场中展开价格竞争。公司债券具有可替代存贷款、改善资金错配、推进实体企业债务率降低、推进商业银行业务转型和缓解小微企业的融资困难等一系列功能。应以公司债券作为金融回归实体经济的政策抓手，推进金融体系的改革深化。     

物流金融协同发展的价值链管理

物流金融实现了物流企业、资金需求企业和金融机构的合作,从而形成了一个物流、资金流、信息流合理流动的一体化经济体。物流金融不同程度地提升了物流企业、银行和资金需求企业的价值链。从物流金融的内涵、物流金融对物流企业价值链的提升、物流金融在银行业未来的利润增长点和物流金融破解中小企业融资障碍等方面做了有益的探讨和研究。     

加快推进我国国际金融中心建设

自20世纪70年代起,全球金融业越来越趋向于向某一区域聚集.这种聚集一方面在该区域催生出大量支持金融发展的相关产业,由此大幅改善了信息流动,削弱了信息不对称程度,降低了金融领域的逆向选择和道德风险问题;另一方面,金融机构联系增强与资源配置效率提高使成本大幅下降,同时也会吸引更多金融机构甚至实体经济向该区域集聚,从而实现一个相互促进、自我强化的正反馈系统.现代世界金融的竞争在一定程度上可以说是国际金融中心之间对金融及金融相关产业,对机构、资金、人才等金融资源配置平台和能力的竞争.中国作为一个发展中的经济大国,需要形成和发展自己的国际金融中心,以聚集更多的国际金融机构、资金、人才,提高参与国际金融资源配置的能力.     

绍兴民间融资现状调查与发展路径选择

民间融资是指出资人与受资人之间,在国家法定金融机构之外,以取得高额利息与取得资金使用权并支付约定利息为目的,而采用民间借贷、民间票据融资、民间有价证券融资和社会集资等形式,暂时改变资金使用权的金融行为。与正规金融机构融资相比,民间融资在地方经济、支持地方企业发展方面发挥了重要作用。绍兴地区民间资金活跃但却存在着诸如风险高、缺乏有效监管等问题。文章通过对绍兴市当前民间融资调查和分析,将现实与理论相结合,对民间融资未来发展提出的意见和建议。     

金融抑制与商业信用二次配置功能

信贷资源通过正规金融机构到企业只是完成初次分配,获得融资的企业再把资金转移给其他企业则是信贷资源的二次分配,商业信用在信贷资源二次分配过程中扮演着重要角色,并得到文献证实。商业信用二次配置功能存在的制度基础是什么?基于中国独特的金融制度环境,本文识别并验证了金融抑制是如何影响并决定商业信用二次分配功能的。实证发现,商业信用的二次分配功能在金融抑制程度越高的地区表现越强,并随着金融改革发展而减弱。在国有企业和国家重点扶持的行业中,企业的商业信用二次分配功能更加显著。本文阐述了宏观金融背景是如何影响企业微观融资行为的,对当前的金融改革具有一定政策参考价值,也有利于深入理解中国企业当前所面临的融资问题。     

我国中小企业融资困境下的银行业整合

随着我国国有企业改革以及企业股份制改造的不断深入,我国的中小企业取得了较长足的发展,然而在实际运行中,其所获得的金融资源与其产出却存在着严重的不对称性,它们使用了33％的金融资源,产出却占了GDP的70％。中小企业一方面迅速发展,另一方面又资金匮乏。在发展过程中,中小企业所面临的最大障碍就是资金“瓶颈”,而现行的银行体系却无法有效地解决企业的融资需求。本文正是基于中小企业融资难的现状,结合企业融资途径选择的分析来探讨我国金融体制改革问题。     

Institutional Determinants of Financial Development in MENA countries

Developed and well regulated financial markets are usually seen as a precondition for an efficient allocation of resources and can foster long term economic growth. This paper explores the institutional determinants for financial development in the countries of the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. Institutional conditions are from the International Country Risk Guide. Panel‐econometric techniques are applied to assess the development in the banking sector and the stock market. As a main finding, institutional conditions are important in both financial segments, even after controlling for standard macroeconomic determinants and fixed effects. For the banking sector, corruption seems to be most decisive. For the stock market, the impact of corruption and law and order appear to be relevant. While per capita income and inflation do not seem to play a vital role, openness to foreign trade is quite important for all areas of financial development. Hence, overall, faster real economic integration is of key policy priority to improve financial development as a condition for higher GDP growth. Better law and enforcement practices and anti‐corruption policies are strategies to accompany this process.     

Macroeconomic Uncertainty,Fund Demand and Corporate Investment

Using a unique set of data on fund use by China’s listed companies, this paper examines how macroeconomic uncertainty works on corporate investment. The study shows that macroeconomic uncertainty affects corporate investment behavior through the three channels of external demand, liquidity demand and long-term fund demand. However, the result is influenced by expectations and can differ across firms depending on their economic cycle, shareholder character, industrial character and the financial constraints they are exposed to. Specifically, high macroeconomic uncertainty can weaken the positive roles of these channels, especially those of external demand and liquidity demand, in driving corporate investment. During economic upturns, the effect of these channels is the most evident among state-owned firms, manufacturing firms and low cash dividend firms. The lessons from this study are that macroeconomic policies should be leveraged taking account of the channels through which economic shocks find their way, and monetary policies have to be implemented by targeting microscopic fund demand.     

The macroeconomic drivers in hedge fund beta management

We investigate how macroeconomic indicators alter the dynamic risk exposure of different hedge fund style strategies. We implement a multifactor model to estimate the unobservable time-varying risk exposure conditional on macroeconomic information and a VAR to measure the impact of macroeconomic predictors on different time horizons. Using monthly returns on a cross-section of 10 different style indices from February 1997 to August 2019, we find that, on average, macroeconomic indicators explain approximately 30%, 55%, and 75% of the variability of betas at 1-, 6-, and 36-month horizons, respectively. Although macroeconomic predictors play a critical role at every horizon, at 1 month, the dominating effect comes from idiosyncratic shocks, which indicates that in the short run, hedge fund managers rely mostly on their own reallocation signals. Moreover, consistent with the fundamental drivers of the smart beta factors, we find that the interest rate level and GDP growth similarly impact hedge fund exposures across styles.     

Hedge fund return higher moments over the business cycle

We investigate how macroeconomic and financial uncertainty impacts the behavior of hedge fund strategy higher moments—i.e., co-skewness and co-kurtosis—and their respective cross-sectional dispersions. Consistent with theoretical models, we find that strategy managers trade off these two higher moments when building optimal portfolios. Moreover, these trade-offs depend on the kind of strategy. Our experiments show that the VIX and its conditional variance are the most important factors affecting higher moment risk in the hedge fund industry. They also reveal that the behavior of hedge fund strategies is very asymmetric depending on the phase of the business cycle. In contrast to studies which rely on the mean-variance setting, we find that systemic risk—as measured by the cross-sectional dispersions of higher moments—tends to decrease in the low regime. The indicators of market volatility play a decisive role to explain this decline in systemic risk.     

The impact of local financial development on firm growth in Vietnam: Does the level of corruption matter?

We examine the effects of province-level financial development and corruption on the performance of Vietnamese firms in terms of the growth rates of sales, investment and sales per worker. Employing a large firm-level dataset of more than 40,000 firms for the period 2009–2013 and applying a heteroskedasticity-based identification strategy, we find that province-level financial development promotes firm growth, while corruption hinders it. Most importantly, the marginal effect of financial development on firm growth depends negatively on the level of corruption. Moreover, financial development exacerbates the growth-retarding effect of corruption.     

A new index of financial conditions

We use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility to construct a financial conditions index that can accurately track expectations about growth in key US macroeconomic variables. Time-variation in the models׳ parameters allows for the weights attached to each financial variable in the index to evolve over time. Furthermore, we develop methods for dynamic model averaging or selection which allow the financial variables entering into the financial conditions index to change over time. We discuss why such extensions of the existing literature are important and show them to be so in an empirical application involving a wide range of financial variables.     

Are financial development and corruption control substitutes in promoting growth?

While financial development and corruption control have been studied extensively, their interaction has not. We develop a simple model in which low corruption and financial development both facilitate the undertaking of productive projects, but act as substitutes in doing so. The substitutability arises because corruption raises the need for liquidity and thus makes financial improvements more potent; conversely, financial underdevelopment makes corruption more onerous and thus raises the gains from reducing it. We test this substitutability by predicting growth, of countries and industries, using measures of financial development, lack of corruption, and a key interaction term. Both approaches point to positive effects from improving either factor, as well as to a substitutability between them. The growth gain associated with moving from the 25th to the 75th percentile in one factor is 0.63–1.68 percentage points higher if the second factor is at the 25th percentile rather than the 75th. The results show robustness to different measures of corruption and financial development and do not appear to be driven by outliers, omitted variables, or other theories of growth and convergence.     

Financial deepening and economic growth

The core of Shapley–Shubik games and general equilibrium models with a Venn diagram is applied for a theory on the role of real finance in economic growth among advanced economies. Then the dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) models for Germany, France, the UK, Japan and the USA are constructed to assess the validity of the over-financing hypothesis that has reappeared after the financial crisis of 2008. Actual financial deepening ratios observed in the nonconsolidated balance sheet of the OECD exceeded by factors of 3.5, 2.4, 5.1, 11.6 and 4.8 than the optimal financial deepening ratios implied by DCGE models, respectively, in these countries because of excessive leveraging and bubbles up to 19 times of GDP which were responsible for this great recession. Containing such massive fluctuations for macroeconomic stability and growth in these economies are not possible in conventional fiscal and monetary policy models and require a DCGE analysis like this along with adoption of separating equilibrium strategy in line of Miller–Stiglitz–Roth mechanisms to avoid problem of asymmetric information in the process of financial intermediation so that the gaps between actual and optimal ratios of financial deepening remain as small as possible.     

A cause for policy concern: the expansion of household credit in middle-income economies

This article discusses the significance of the recent growth in household credit across a range of middle-income economies. This growth is understood primarily as a result of policy, including the promotion of individual borrowing as a means to fund access to housing, education and health. A formal model of credit extension and allocation is developed, establishing that consumption lending makes a comparatively stronger contribution to aggregate profitability as well as financial fragility than production lending. Consumption lending may be understood to create distinctive endogenous tendencies to credit-market instability. The findings point to the need for a critical reconsideration of reliance on this lending for social and macroeconomic policy.     

金融加速器效应在中国存在吗?

本文从金融加速器理论出发,运用门限向量自回归(TVAR)模型在宏观层面上对中国信贷市场与宏观经济波动的非线性关联展开实证研究。通过非线性脉冲响应函数的检验结果我们发现:在1990年1月至2006年5月期间,中国存在显著的金融加速器效应,表现为对于相同特征的各种外生冲击,经济波动在信贷市场处于"紧缩"状态下的反应均明显强于信贷市场处于"放松"状态下的反应。另外,信贷冲击对于信贷市场状态变化的作用最为显著,其次是货币冲击和价格冲击,最后是实际冲击。进一步的检验还表明:信贷市场在宏观经济波动过程中既是重要的波动源,同时也是波动的有力传导媒介,运用金融加速器理论有助于合理解释中国宏观经济波动的轨迹特征。最后本文阐述了实证结论的政策含义和未来研究的侧重点。