中国外债风险不容忽视

由“广信事件”引发的对外举债“窗口”危机给中国的国际信用造成一定程度损害，也给金融市场带来了不小的冲击。本文分析了中国外债及其管理现状， 提出组建适应市场经济与改革开放形势的外债监管机构“中国外债监管委员会”的建议。     

警惕中国外债的潜在风险

2001年外债指标调整以来中国短期外债的超标，以及2003年下半年以来，短期资本大量流入条件下，外债规模的急剧膨胀，再次将中国外债风险管理提到议事日程。对此，尽管国内外学者和政府有关部门已予以充分的关注，但其着力点集中于外债的短期静态指标考察，包括偿债率、负债率、债务率和短期债务率等，很少从动态的角度去考察其长期内的潜在风险。本文则试图借助于国际外债风险的经验指标，对中国外债的短期和长期风险予以综合考察，包括：可偿付性风险、结构风险和动态潜在风险，并就新形势下，如何防范中国的外债风险提出了相应的政策建议。     

我国外债风险问题研究

改革开放以来,我国外债规模迅速扩大,特别是加入WTO之后,与其他国家联系更为密切。随着经济的发展和外债规模的扩大,我国面临的偿债压力也随之增大,主要是因为我国的外债结构不科学,国际商务贷款占的比例太大。文章分析了我国外债风险情况和外债风险产生的原因,提出控制外债的对策。     

中国长期外债与短期外债的动态关系研究

本文的研究表明,我国的短期外债和长期外债之间存在长期均衡关系,短期外债变化是长期外债变化的Granger原因,短期外债变化对长期外债变化具有负效应.短期外债已经成为当前我国外债的主要来源,短期外债占外债余额的比例已经超过国际警戒线,并且这一比例逐年递增.我国需要合理安排短期外债和长期外债的比例,优化外债结构,在外债管理模式、管理形式、管理重点和借款种类等方面也需要进一步调整.     

防范外债导致的财政风险

一国外债的过度不合理会导致政府偿债危机，这种财政危机继而会引发一系列的经济、政治危机乃至社会动荡。因而对外债管理的成功与否，直接涉及到一国财政风险防范的成功与否。我国外债存在着多头对外、汇率风险高、外债投向不合理等诸多问题，必须对其加以规范和改革，以防范财政风险。     

我国的外债运营机制

外债作为我国利用外资的一种重要形式，促进了我国国民经济发展和经济金融体制改革。截止到1999年12月底，我国登记外债余额1518．3亿美元（不包括香港、澳门和台湾地区的对外负债），比上年末增加57．9亿美元，增长4％。在这些外债中，中长期外债余为1366．5亿美元，短期外债余额为151．8亿美元。     

斯里兰卡投资环境和立法

投资环境斯里兰卡是印度洋中的一个岛国,由锡兰本岛和若干小岛组成,位于印巴次大陆的南端,北部与印度只有一水之隔,最近处仅３５公里。国土面积为６３６１０平方公里。斯里兰卡现有人口１８００万,６７．３%的居民信仰佛教,其余信仰印度教、伊斯兰教和基督教,僧伽罗语为国语。斯里兰卡的气候属湿热带气候,具有炎热、潮湿、多雨和受季节风影响等特点。由于四面环海,雨量充沛,适合植物生长,森林覆盖面积占总面积的４５%。茶叶、橡胶、椰子、稻谷是斯里兰卡的主要农产品,前三项是斯里兰卡的主要出口产品,是国民经济的支柱。斯里兰卡提供亚洲地…     

The scarring effects of youth joblessness in Sri Lanka

Retrospective data on labor market spells for successive cohorts of youth in the school‐to‐work transition in Sri Lanka are used to examine whether early spells of joblessness lead to subsequent difficulty in finding or keeping a job. A balancing score approach is used to generate pairs of youth in the school‐to‐work transition who have similar expected levels of joblessness but who differ in realized levels of joblessness. Assuming that youth are not able to perfectly control whether they are employed or not employed, we argue that marginal differences in joblessness among otherwise observationally equivalent youth can be viewed similarly to a regression discontinuity in experienced joblessness. We find evidence of scarring in that spending the first year after leaving school without a job or training increases subsequent share of time spent jobless by 23–31 percentage points and lowers subsequent wages by 5.5%–7.5%.     

Financial liberalization: The case of Sri Lanka

Empirical Economics - According to the advocates of financial liberalization in less developed countries (LDCs), a rise in the real interest rates is essential to stimulate savings, investment and...     

Consumption patterns in Sri Lanka: a decomposition analysis

Knowing consumer reaction to changes in prices and income is important in formulating microeconomic policies, such as public utility prices and commodity taxation. This paper analyses the consumption patterns of consumer goods grouped into eight broad commodities in Sri Lanka during the period 1975–2016, using a system-wide framework. The analysis indicates that Sri Lankan consumers allocate more than half of their income to food and nearly four fifths of their income to food, housing, and transport combined. The estimated income and own-price elasticities reveal that food, housing, medical care, and transport are necessities; clothing, durables and recreation are luxuries; and demand for all commodities is price inelastic except for recreation. To investigate the consumption growth pattern, we decomposed the growth in consumption and change in budget shares of the eight commodities into income, relative price, and change in taste. We also simulated per capita consumption expenditure of the eight commodities under various policy scenarios and found that income growth has played a significant role in Sri Lankan consumption patterns.     

The effects of climatic variation on rice production in Sri Lanka

We study the responsiveness of rice production to climatic variation using a recent pseudo-panel data set from Sri Lanka. Output per farm is modelled as a non-linear function of temperature and rainfall (and other standard controls) using fixed effects regressions. We find that both climatic variables have concave, non-monotonic effects upon production, and that output is close to maximized at current climatic values. This implies that variations in growing conditions are likely to have negative effects upon production. Random simulations are used to model these impacts under various climate change scenarios, and we find that increasing temperatures will adversely affect rice production much more than varying rainfall, although the effects of a small ceteris paribus rise in temperature are positive. As rice production is a key component in economic output for Sri Lanka and other developing countries, our results have implications for food policy and poverty management in the future.     

The nonprofit sector in international perspective: The case of Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka, a developing country, has a small but growing nonprofit sector that engages in the formation of social overhead and human capital, as well as in more traditional social services. The most active multipurpose organizations combine large foreign monetary donations with domestic donations of volunteer labor. Smaller organizations depend primarily on modest government grants for financial support. Private domestic monetary contributions, unlike in the U. S., play only a minor role. Origins of these nonprofit institutions, motivations of foreign donors and of volunteer labor, interactions with the government, and implications for economic development and social welfare are examined.     

Strategic troping in Sri Lanka: September eleventh and the consolidation of political position

This essay investigates the deployment of the trope of September eleventh in Sri Lanka from 11 September 2001 until Sri Lanka's parliamentary elections and change of government on 5 December 2001. The essay argues that September eleventh in the tropic form of synecdoche performed political work for both parties to Sri Lanka's long-running conflict – the People's Alliance Government and the Tamil Tigers of Tamil Eelam, and demonstrates how each belligerent used September eleventh and the lexicon associated with the US attacks and early global response to brand their adversary as terrorist, to recode political and conflict narratives in September eleventh terms, and to indicate the appropriate scale and scope of the war. The article raises important questions about the translation of geopolitical events from one domestic context to another, the representation of political violence as global terror, and the strategic power of narrative.     

我国短期外债问题研究

自2001年起我国短期外债快速增长,这可能是国际投机资本进入我国的表象之一,文章分析了目前我国短期外债的规模及结构及对我国经济的影响和潜在的威胁。并指出国家外汇管理部门采用一系列措施管理短期外债以严控国际投机资本的流入,措施是得当和必要的,但也是有限的。在开放的经济体下,只要汇差、利差及贸易顺差等因素存在,其所诱发的资本流动就不可避免,最终问题的解决还要靠国内经济结构、产业结构的调整,经济增长方式的转变,以实现国际收支平衡,同时在这个过程中完善汇率制度。     

Schooling and household welfare: The case of Sri Lanka from 1990 to 2006

This paper looks at the effect schooling has had on household welfare in Sri Lanka during the 1990–2006 period, on average and across the welfare distribution. We account for the endogeneity of schooling using quantile instrumental variable estimation as developed in Chernozhukov, Fernández‐Val, and Kowalski ( 2015 ). We use pooled data from four cross‐sectional Household Income Expenditure Surveys. The results show that an extra year of schooling on the part of the most educated adult member in the household can increase welfare (proxied by real per capita consumption expenditure) by 3.8 percent on average. However, the effect varies considerably across the welfare distribution: At the lower end, around the 20th and 25th quantiles, an extra year of education increases welfare by 6 and 5 percent, respectively, while at the median it is around 3.5 percent. At the higher, 90th quantile it is much less, at 1 percent. Thus the marginal effect of schooling on welfare is significant and positive at all levels of the welfare distribution, but highest at the lower and middle quartiles. This result is different from findings in the literature that tend to show larger effects at higher quantiles, when endogeneity is uncorrected.     

Unemployment In Developing Countries: Economist's Models in Light of Evidence From Sri Lanka

Observation of open unemployment in developing countries has lead some economist to formulate models which seek to explain this phenomenon. This paper examines unemployment in Sri Lanka in detail to see whether the assumptions and conclusions of economists' models are consistent with empirical data. In the case of Sri Lanka, these models provide a useful starting point but miss some of the essential details. Until one examines how the unemployed support themselves and how they spend their time, one's understanding of this phenomenon, as well as one's suggestions for policy changes, is necessarily incomplete. [820]