香港与伦敦、纽约国际金融中心比较研究

从金融中心的形成与发展历程、金融中心的运行体系以及金融中心的成长环境等三个方面将香港与伦敦、纽约国际金融中心进行比较研究,以此探寻香港的比较优势及劣势,并提出香港打造世界级国际金融中心的战略选择。     

The empire strikes back: Hong Kong and the decline of sterling in the 1960s1

The aftermath of the sterling devaluation of 1967 is usually portrayed only in terms of the performance of the British economy, but it had more far‐reaching implications, exposing the changed financial relationship between Britain and its overseas dependencies and prompting the end of the sterling reserve system. This article explores the reasons why Britain was forced to offer its first exchange guarantee to Hong Kong in May 1968. Prolonging the colonial monetary system devised in the period from the 1930s to the late 1960s created problems for Britain that shifted the balance of power to the point where Hong Kong and other colonies were able to force a re‐negotiation of their link to sterling.     

香港国际金融中心的比较优势——兼论上海金融中心所面临的挑战和机遇

作为亚太国际金融中心,香港面临来自国际及中国内地金融中心的挑战和竞争。本文探讨了香港金融证券业的个别特定金融机构和专业人才的比较优势。特别是《更紧密经贸关系安排》(CE-PA)增强了香港与内地金融证券市场和客户的接近度,促进了香港金融证券业专业人才的培训和交流、香港中小银行的合并以及证券市场的融资和交易。本文进而提出,一方面,香港需要与中国内地经贸合作而增强其作为国际金融中心的经济实力;另一方面,香港以泛珠三角地区为平台,上海以长江三角地区为平台,可以促进香港与中国内地的金融证券业相互补充和相互帮助,并带动亚太区域金融中心的互动。通过竞争与协调,加强金融监管合作和融通,进而有效地利用有限的经济金融资源。     

One country,two currencies: The adoption of the Hong Kong currency board, 1983

Currency boards have had an enduring attraction as a solution to exchange rate and monetary credibility for small open economies, despite few successful examples. In this context, the case of Hong Kong stands out for its longevity; it survived the handover to China, the Asian financial crises in 1997, and the global crises in 2007–8 and 2020. The 1983 currency crisis and the decision to link the exchange rate to the US$ is usually treated as an outcome of local political uncertainty due to the Sino-British negotiations which set the framework for how Hong Kong would fit with the rest of China after 1997. We present fresh archival evidence from Hong Kong and London to reveal the year-long debates over Hong Kong's monetary system after a drop in the exchange rate in September 1982 and to demonstrate how most of the protagonists in Hong Kong and London came only reluctantly to accept the idea of re-pegging the dollar once public expectations had been raised. We also show how the mixture of currency and banking instability affected the terms of the negotiations in 1982 and 1983 and set the framework for the one country, two currencies system that prevails today.     

Renminbi internationalisation: precedents and implications

Although it is commonly assumed that there are no precedents against which to benchmark Renminbi (RMB), this study argues that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) own development experience provides a useful perspective on the internationalisation debate. This study indicates that lessons can be learnt from both the successes and the shortcomings of efforts to internationalise the RMB in the 1970s. During this period, state-owned banks in Hong Kong played a central role in mobilising finance for foreign trade. Access to Hong Kong’s financial institutions allowed the PRC to maximise international trade receipts while minimising the risk of undue swings in capital flows. This study shows that although China no longer faces foreign exchange scarcity, economic reforms have not yet resolved vulnerabilities in China’s financial institutions. As a consequence, Hong Kong has retained its role in mitigating the risks of internationalisation and as a globalising force for China’s banking sector more generally.     

香港、新加坡和上海国际金融中心的比较研究

本文以金融中心的功能定义为基准,以金融发展理论为基础,以金融系统功能分析为思路,对香港、新加坡和上海国际金融中心功能进行比较分析,探寻上海的比较优势和劣势。得出结论:从历史和现实来看,香港和新加坡在金融系统功能的诸多方面都超越上海,上海只是在商品期货方面处于领先地位;上海的最大优势之一是它和伦敦、纽约、东京一样有着强大的国家经济体作为后盾,近几年发展态势良好,有实现跨越式发展的能力:开放型、多功能是构建上海国际金融中心的趋势和方向。     

Who Plays the Key Role among Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong Stock Markets？

In this paper we examine the daily frequency stock market indices of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong from January 2000 to June 2012, and use the Morlet wavelet coherence model to determine who is playing the most important role in the financial markets of China. We find that there are significant comovements between these stock markets in the medium and long run. This provides investors with opportunities to increase their capital gains. The Hong Kong stock market plays a leading role in the long run, but its leader position is threatened by fast‐growing Chinese mainland stock markets, especially the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Based on our analysis, the following suggestions apply to the Chinese stock markets: establish and improve international and regional finance centers in Chinese mainland; encourage more qualified institutional investors; reposition the market relations among Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen; and increase deregulation and internationalization to speed up the integration of financial resources.     

香港人民币离岸市场的发展与预期风险

全球金融危机的爆发使中国货币当局意识到推进人民币国际化的必要性与紧迫性。由于资本项目的未完全开放和人民币尚未实现可自由兑换,为了稳步推行人民币国际化进程,香港成为发展人民币离岸市场的首选之地。伴随一系列相关政策措施的出台,香港人民币离岸市场日益发展壮大。本文在考察人民币跨境贸易结算试点实施以来香港人民币离岸市场流动性的形成、债券市场的演进和金融衍生品市场的现状的基础上,总结了现阶段香港人民币离岸市场发展的特点,探讨了香港人民币离岸市场在未来发展中可能面临的主要问题和预期风险,并提出了相应的对策与建议。     

“九七”前后深港金融合作问题探讨

“九七”将至,深港面临着如何进一步加强合作的问题,尤其是金融合作更对两地具特别意义。本期专稿刊发了《“九七”前后深港金融合作问题探讨》一文,这是全国金融重点课题。文章对深港金融合作的难点、具体内容和对策进行了深入研究,具有很强的现实意义。     

香港公屋政策的反思和启示

香港早期公屋建设为社会发展提供安全网,支持香港经济转型并促进经济发展。1987年开始实施的长远房屋策略促进了房地产业发展,使房地产成为影响公屋政策重要因素。此后房委会改组为财政自主机构、停建居屋和及消减公屋建设量等改革措施对公屋政策发展的产生影响。保障居民的居住权是住房政策的核心,住房保障政策应该作为一项重要的社会政策而非经济政策的补充。内地应该借鉴香港等地的实践经验,在经济上避免对房地产业的过分依赖,并由政府主导建立住房保障制度保障居民的居住权利,同时通过政府的主导和扶持保证住房保障政策的公平性。     

中国国际金融中心崛起与沪港竞合关系分析

本文以全球性金融危机和中国经济崛起为基本背景,探讨了中国可能出现全球性重要国际金融中心的理论依据,并且认为,虽然当前香港的微观金融市场条件超过上海,但从长期看,在宏观基础性因素和政策性因素等基本因素的作用下,上海可能成长为比香港更为重要的国际金融中心。同时以上述分析为基础,进一步研究了沪港未来金融发展可能出现的基本竞合结构及双方各自的战略取向。     

论加强内地与香港金融合作的政策与法律措施

本文主要在内地与香港金融合作的法律框架下,就两地加强金融合作的现状和存在的问题进行分析,并对促进与香港的金融合作的政策和法律措施提出建议。     

略论回归后香港金融中心地位的巩固

香港回归后,中央政府与特区政府贯彻《香港特别行政区基本法》中的相关规定,采取了一系列措施巩固香港的金融中心地位。不仅成功地抵御了亚洲金融危机对香港金融业的冲击;而且通过加强与内地的经济合作,促进了香港金融业在回归后的迅速发展。     

新加坡金融服务双向贸易的决定因素

从金融市场结构看,新加坡出口市场更分散,且重要市场比重下滑,但对印度金融服务出口快速上升;而香港金融服务出口更集中且国际化多元化突出。新加坡金融服务与日、韩、香港、美等GL指数较高呈水平分工,与中国和印度GL指数较低呈垂直分工。而决定这一分工现状的主要因素依次为金融市场规模、外来投资以及金融市场开放程度。     

香港食品安全监管体系及对内地的借鉴意义

近年来,我国食品安全事故发生频率高,为食品安全监管的法律制度、监管机制、部门协调等提出了新的要求。香港与内地监管体系对接,可为我国食品安全监管提供有益参考。目前鲜有研究对香港目前食物安全监管体制做全面梳理研究。基于对香港食环署食物安全中心的多次访谈,该文讨论香港食品安全监管机制的制度架构、运作模式、背后精神,并提出对内...     

港深都会：世界金融第三极构想

目前世界金融极分别是欧洲的伦敦和美洲的纽约。亚洲的六大金融城市虽然各具优势，但近期内要成为世界金融第三极都有较大的困难。本文认为，把香港和深圳建设成为一个金融中心，最有可能成为世界金融第三极。期望把港深都会建设上升为国家战略，消除港深金融中心的制度性障碍。     

Hong Kong's exchange rate regime:: Lessons from Singapore

Singapore's managed floating exchange rate regime contrasts with Hong Kong's currency board system featured by the Hong Kong–United States dollars peg. This paper appraises the two different exchange rate regimes by comparing their track records in maintaining macroeconomic stability and trade competitiveness in the 1990s. A review of the two regimes' institutional characteristics and macroeconomic performance reveals the systemic inadequacy of Hong Kong's exchange rate regime under a changing global financial environment. As East Asia emerges from the recent financial crisis, Singapore's experience of successfully moving away from a currency board system to a credible managed floating regime offers a lesson worthy of attention from Hong Kong.     

Development trajectories: Hong Kong vs. Shanghai

Over the past three decades, Shanghai and Hong Kong, leading cities in China's Yangzi River Delta and Pearl River Delta, respectively, have seen rapid economic development and institutional transformation. Shanghai has experienced a major breakthrough in its export‐driven economy and in industrial upgrading since the opening of the Pudong area in the 1990s. Shanghai has also ramped up its efforts to catch up with Hong Kong and has already become one of the world's foremost manufacturing and export hubs. At the same time, and particularly following the 1997 Asian economic crisis, Hong Kong has redoubled efforts to identify shortcomings in its economic architecture; and has explored plans to transcend its traditional role as a financial hub, to attract entrepreneurial hi‐tech talent, and to overcome inequitable income growth. This paper explores the development trajectories of these two cities and how they depart from the pre‐1978 development models. The paper also examines the extent to which the current trajectories are complementary or in competition.     

回归以来粤港金融发展差异及其成因实证研究

1997年香港回归以前,粤港两地的金融发展表现出明显的差异性。然而,回归以后,在"一国两制"方针的背景下,随着CEPA的实施和粤港两地经济一体化的推进,粤港两地金融发展迅速,竞合关系也发生了微妙的变化,这推动了大珠三角地区金融业的重新分工与整合。这一趋势将会扩大还是缩小两地金融差异,成为经济社会各界关注的一个重要问题。本文在利用金融相关率等统计指标比较分析两地金融发展差异的基础上,通过基于经济收敛理论的计量实证分析两地金融发展的动态差异性,得出粤港两地金融发展差距缩小,呈现σ收敛特征,但幅度不大,整体未呈现长期的随机收敛特征,并对该特征的成因作出深入分析,最后提出了缩小两地金融差异的具体政策建议。     

香港旅游业的"内地化"弊端与国际化走向

针对香港旅游业出现的"内地化"趋势,从香港旅游业在国际旅游体系的地位及其发展状况出发,分析香港旅游业"内地化"存在的弊端,认为"国际化"才是香港旅游业发展的方向,并提出应加大海外市场推广和宣传工作、加强大珠三角旅游合作、利用香港的优势在全球范围内推出"过境游"及举办旅游会展活动等政策措施,以保障香港旅游业能有效地在"国际化"道路上发展。