A computable general equilibrium model of international sanctions in Iran

We detail recent international sanctions against the Iranian economy and its government imposed by a subset of developed countries. The effects of these sanctions on the Iranian economy in general and upon upper and lower‐income rural and urban Iranian households, as well as the Iranian government, are modelled using a computable general equilibrium (CGE ) model. We supplement the Global Trade Analysis Project 8 data set using income and expenditure shares from the Urban and Rural Household Income and Expenditure Survey from the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI ). The model is calibrated to simulate the effects of international sanctions as closely as possible. We use endogenous trade taxes to simulate the effects of sanctions on Iranian oil and petrochemical exports and Iranian imports of petroleum products, metal products and motor vehicles. Our study finds that international sanctions reduced aggregate Iranian welfare by 14%–15%. Rural households in Iran suffered welfare losses which were almost double those experienced by urban households, and the poorest urban and rural households experienced the largest welfare losses, in the order of 5%–10%. But the government of Iran sees a decrease in real revenue of 40%–50%, due to the large negative effect of sanctions on the Iranian oil sector.     

The theory of effective protection in general equilibrium with interindustrial flows

The purpose of the present note is to demonstrate that the sufficiency condition of Bruno (1973) and Sendo (1974) on tariff changes is valid as an ERP index in the sense defined by Bhagwati and Srinivasan (1973), within the framework of the Bhagwati-Srinivasan general equilibrium model with two industries, even if we admit interindustrial flows.     

Trade and imperfect competition in general equilibrium

This paper employs a multi-industry general equilibrium model of oligopolistic competition, free market entry and trade in which capital is used to establish firms and labor is used for production. We show that both absolute and relative endowments matter for the pattern of trade. We demonstrate that market entry to each industry is either too excessive or too moderate while the effect on firm size is ambiguous. If countries are sufficiently symmetric, trade will increase the wage–rental ratio in both countries. Furthermore, trade will increase per-capita consumption in capital-intensive industries and reduce it in labor-intensive industries. Nevertheless, trade will be mutually welfare-improving under relatively mild conditions.     

Trade and inequality in developing countries: a general equilibrium analysis

Developing and newly industrialized countries that have experienced the sharpest increases in wage inequality are those whose export shares have shifted towards more skill-intensive goods. We argue that this can be explained by technological catch-up. We develop this insight using a model that features both Ricardian and endowments-based comparative advantage. In this model, Southern catch-up causes production of the least skill-intensive Northern goods to migrate South (where they become the most skill-intensive Southern goods). This raises wage inequality in both the South and the North. We provide empirical evidence that strongly supports this causal mechanism: Southern catch-up exacerbates Southern inequality by redirecting Southern export shares towards more skill-intensive goods.     

Towards a brain-to-society systems model of individual choice

Canonical models of rational choice fail to account for many forms of motivated adaptive behaviors, specifically in domains such as food selections. To describe behavior in such emotion- and reward-laden scenarios, researchers have proposed dual-process models that posit competition between a slower, analytic faculty and a fast, impulsive, emotional faculty. In this paper, we examine the assumptions and limitations of these approaches to modeling motivated choice. We argue that models of this form, though intuitively attractive, are biologically implausible. We describe an approach to motivated choice based on sequential sampling process models that can form a solid theoretical bridge between what is known about brain function and environmental influences upon choice. We further suggest that the complex and dynamic relationships between biology, behavior, and environment affecting choice at the individual level must inform aggregate models of consumer choice. Models using agent-based complex systems may further provide a principled way to relate individual and aggregate consumer choices to the aggregate choices made by businesses and social institutions. We coin the term “brain-to-society systems” choice model for this broad integrative approach.     

Unions, competition and international trade in general equilibrium

We develop a two-country, multi-sector model of oligopoly in which unionised and non-unionised sectors interact in general equilibrium. The model is used to study the impact of trade liberalisation, deunionisation and firm entry on wages in unionised and non-unionised sectors, and on welfare. We find that a shift from autarky to free trade increases non-union wages and welfare, whereas the effect on union wages is ambiguous. We also show that partial deunionisation leads to higher wages in both unionised and non-unionised sectors, but only increases welfare when the proportion of unionised sectors is sufficiently low. Finally, wages in non-unionised sectors necessarily increase with firm entry, while the response of union wages and welfare depends on the trade regime.     

International trade with endogenous mode of competition in general equilibrium

This paper endogenizes the extent of intra-sectoral competition in a multi-sectoral general-equilibrium model of oligopoly and trade. Firms choose capacity followed by prices. If the benefits of capacity investment in a given sector are below a threshold level, the sector exhibits Bertrand behavior, otherwise it exhibits Cournot behavior. By endogenizing the threshold parameter in general equilibrium, we show how exogenous shocks such as globalization and technological change alter the mix of sectors between “more” and “less” competitive, or Bertrand and Cournot, and affect the relative wages of skilled and unskilled workers, even in a “North–North” model with identical countries.     

Export-share requirements and welfare in less developed countries: a three-sector general equilibrium analysis

This paper analyzes the welfare impacts of export-share requirements in a three-sector, general equilibrium, sector-specific unemployment model. We demonstrate that the favorable welfare impact of export-share requirements is mitigated by a rise in the unemployment ratio. In addition, we deduce the welfare impact of a change in tariff rate for a given level of export share. Our analysis suggests that the export-share requirement policy is always welfare improving in the long run. The policy may not improve welfare in the short or intermediate run, however; the condition under which export-share requirements are welfare enhancing is derived and interpreted.     

Information processing analysis of a stochastic model of brand choice

A formal and detailed comparison between Morrison's brand loyal model and its information processing counterpart reveals serious internal inconsistencies and other shortcomings of this stochastic model.     

External technology sourcing: The effect of uncertainty on governance mode choice

External knowledge sourcing is increasingly important for corporate entrepreneurship. In this study, we examine the effect of external and relational uncertainty on the governance choice for inter-organizational technology sourcing. We develop a number of hypotheses about the impact of environmental turbulence, technological newness, technological distance and prior cooperation on the choice between different governance modes. Data about external technology sourcing transactions in the pharmaceutical industry do not provide evidence for a continuum from less to more integrated sourcing modes. However, we find that the ranking depends on the type of uncertainty, indicating that firms tackle different types of uncertainty with different governance modes.     

Practical general equilibrium estimation of resource pulls under trade liberalization

This paper discusses the application of a model similar to the one developed in Leif Johansen's Multi-sectoral study of economic growth (1964) to the problem of determining general equilibrium responses of the economy to changes in commercial policy. This method amounts essentially to specifying a log-linear approximation to the general equilibrium solution for the economy, and solving the resulting linear equations for changes in endogenous variables as functions of exogenous variable changes. For a 35-sector model of the Chilean economy with labor as the only variable factor of production (to avoid the problem of overdetermination of many commodity price and output shifts when only two factors are considered in constant returns production functions), it is found that (i) the specification of the way in which intermediate inputs enter the production function is numerically important in determining output responses to tariff changes, detracting from the credibility of fixed coefficient effective rate of protection calculations if variable intermediate input coefficients are the rule (as appears likely empirically); (ii) exchange rate elasticities with respect to individual tariff changes are fairly large, so that the usual partial equilibrium assumption of exchange rate insensitivity to ‘small’ tariff revisions is not valid; (iii) employment effects of different tariff revisions are highly variable and in some cases substantial.     

Educating young consumers – a food choice model

It has been acknowledged that it is only by obtaining a more detailed understanding of food choice that people’s diets can be improved. In Northern Ireland, research into food choice has been limited yet the Province has the second highest rate of heart disease in the world, indicating the need for change. This study investigated the food choices of 9‐ to 17‐year‐olds in Northern Ireland and the influential factors. A range of research techniques were employed incorporating both qualitative and quantitative methods, namely observations, focus groups, picture associations, dietary case studies and questionnaires. The research indicated that the dietary patterns adopted by this group are characterized by a high consumption of fat, yet the reduction of fat tends to dominate the overall strategy for the prevention of obesity and lowering the risk of coronary heart disease. In addition, a high consumption of sugar products was evidenced along with a distinct dislike for healthier alternatives such as fruit and vegetables. The ‘skipping’ of meals, especially breakfast and a high prevalence of snacking was also apparent. However, these eating habits were found to be affected by various factors such as age and gender, emphasizing the complex nature of food choice. The findings from this research enabled the development of a model relating to the food choices of 9‐ to 17‐year‐olds in Northern Ireland, highlighting the influential factors and subsequent health implications.     

构建我国责任型政府的路径选择

构建责任型政府是当今社会各国政府的必要选择.本文就责任型政府的内涵、特色等做了分析,提出了我国政府应如何承担好自己的责任、构建好自己的高效责任型政府的路径选择.     

Consumer e-shopping acceptance: Antecedents in a technology acceptance model

This study integrates e-shopping quality, enjoyment, and trust into a technology acceptance model (TAM) to understand consumer acceptance of e-shopping. Online surveys with college students (n = 298) were conducted. E-shopping quality for apparel products consists of four dimensions: web site design, customer service, privacy/security, and atmospheric/experiential. A structural equation model reveals that e-shopping quality determines perceptions of usefulness, trust, and enjoyment, which in turn influence consumers' attitudes toward e-shopping. Consumer perceptions of usefulness and attitude toward e-shopping influence intention to shop online, while perceived ease of use does not influence attitude toward e-shopping. Shopping enjoyment and trust play significant roles in consumers' adoption of e-shopping. This study provides important implications for e-tailers whose web site developers must keep in mind that customers are not only web users with trust/safety and information needs, but also shoppers with service and experiential needs.     

The effects of relative country size and endowment similarity in influencing trade volume and composition in general equilibrium monopolistically competitive markets

In order to explain two-way trade, the standard H-O model has recently been modified by assuming a market structure with monopolistic competition. The factors that affect the volume of total trade and its intra-industry component have been previously specified. This paper attempts to generalize these results to the N-good, M-country case. Although endowment similarity increases the intra-industry component in the 2×2 case, this proposition does not strictly hold for bilateral trade in the N × M case. Similarity of relative income size (GNP) does increase intra-industry trade in the 2×2 case, but does not increase the intra-industry share as assumed by several authors. In the N × M case, similarity of relative income size does not affect the bilateral volume of intra-industry trade nor its intra-industry share. This article thus shows that ceteris paribus comparative static changes in a 2-country model are not equivalent to changes in that variable across a cross-section of a multicountry model.     

Identification and semiparametric estimation of a finite horizon dynamic discrete choice model with a terminating action

We study identification and estimation of finite-horizon dynamic discrete choice models with a terminal action. We first demonstrate a new set of conditions for the identification of agents’ time preferences. Then we prove conditions under which the per-period utilities are identified for all actions in the agent’s choice-set, without having to normalize the utility for one of the actions. Finally, we develop a computationally tractable semiparametric estimator. The estimator uses a two-step approach that does not use either backward induction or forward simulation. Our methodology can be implemented using standard statistical packages without the need to write specialized computational routines, as it involves linear (or nonlinear) projections only. Monte Carlo studies demonstrate the superior performance of our estimator compared with existing two-step estimation methods. Monte Carlo studies further demonstrate that the ability to identify the per-period utilities for all actions is crucial for counterfactual predictions. As an empirical illustration, we apply the estimator to the optimal default behavior of subprime mortgage borrowers, and the results show that the ability to identify the discount factor, rather than assuming an arbitrary number as typically done in the literature, is also crucial for obtaining correct counterfactual predictions. These findings highlight the empirical relevance of key identification results of the paper.