Time and frequency domain causality Testing: The causal linkage between FDI and economic risk for the case of Turkey

This study aims to explore the causal relationship between economic risk and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows for the case of Turkey. With the aim of establishing robust findings for the research in mind, both traditional and modern causality techniques are utilized; time domain Granger (1969, “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods.” Econometrica 37: 424–438.), Toda and Yamamoto (1995, “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes.” Journal of Econometrics 66 (1–2): 225–250.), Fourier Toda-Yamamoto and frequency domain Breitung and Candelon (2006, “Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach.” Journal of Econometrics 132 (2): 363–378.) spectral causality test. Our empirical findings reveal that; economic risk changes in Turkey significantly lead to changes in FDI inflows. However, there is no evidence of causality running from FDI to economic risk. The findings imply that economic risk is an essential determinant of FDI inflows in Turkey. Our findings are compatible with historical macroeconomic developments in Turkey and imply important policy implications. The results of this study can be generalized for other emerging economies that have similar macroeconomic environments, in order to create useful policy implications regarding FDI inflow.     

Capital flow waves: Surges,stops, flight,and retrenchment

This paper analyzes waves in international capital flows. We develop a new methodology for identifying episodes of extreme capital flow movements using data that differentiates activity by foreigners and domestics. We identify episodes of “surges” and “stops” (sharp increases and decreases, respectively, of gross inflows) and “flight” and “retrenchment” (sharp increases and decreases, respectively, of gross outflows). Our approach yields fundamentally different results than the previous literature that used measures of net flows. Global factors, especially global risk, are significantly associated with extreme capital flow episodes. Contagion, whether through trade, banking, or geography, is also associated with stop and retrenchment episodes. Domestic macroeconomic characteristics are generally less important, and we find little association between capital controls and the probability of having surges or stops driven by foreign capital flows. The results provide insights for different theoretical approaches explaining crises and capital flow volatility.     

Foreign Capital Inflows and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Any Nexus?

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the impact of foreign capital inflows on economic growth in Nigeria for 1980–2015 period. It employs Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL)-bounds test, and finds a cointegration relationship between foreign capital inflows and growth. Specifically, foreign portfolio investment has positive impact on growth, while the impact of foreign loans is negative. Nevertheless, foreign direct investment and foreign aid have insignificant impact on growth, suggesting that Nigeria cannot rely on foreign direct investment and foreign aid as vehicles to stimulate growth. Rather, an increase in foreign portfolio investment or reduction in foreign loans has beneficial effects on the economy.     

“Going global” and FDI inflows in China: “One Belt & One Road” initiative as a quasi‐natural experiment

This paper investigates the impact of “One Belt & One Road” as an exogenous policy shock on the utilisation of foreign capital in China in the short term. Based on provincial panel data for the years 2003–15, the empirical study is conducted with difference‐in‐differences design. The first difference is whether a province is an OBOR province, and the second is whether “One Belt & One Road” initiative has been proposed. The empirical results suggest the utilisation of foreign capital in OBOR provinces has decreased significantly compared to non‐OBOR provinces after the initiative has been proposed. The study has further shown that the OBOR construction not only means factor movements and projects but also stands for policy shock. Its impact on utilisation of foreign capital cannot be simply captured by the commonly quantifiable “going global” indicators, namely outward direct investment, overseas contracted projects or overseas labour services. The negative impact of the initiative on foreign capital utilisation is strongly reflected in the OBOR provinces with low levels of economic development, heavy fiscal burdens and high proportions of state‐owned economy. In the short term, the negative impact of the initiative on foreign capital utilisation may be due to its role in resource competition and signal delivering. The former means that the OBOR initiative may induce resource competition between “going global” and “bringing in,” and the latter suggests that this initiative is likely to be regarded as a “signal” by foreign investors that “going global,” not “bringing in,” has become the priority of the government.     

The Impact of Capital Market Integration on Educational Choice and the Consequences for Economic Growth

This paper examines the impact of capital market integration on higher education and the link to economic growth. The analysis takes into account that participation in higher education is non‐compulsory and depends on individual choice. Due to capital–skill complementarity, integration increases (reduces) the incentives to participate in higher education in capital‐importing (‐exporting) economies, all other things equal. From a national policy point of view, public education expenditure should increase after integration of similar economies in order to attract mobile capital. Using foreign direct investment as a measure of capital flows, we present empirical evidence which largely confirms our main hypothesis: an increase in net capital inflows in response to capital market integration raises participation in higher education. In addition, we show that the adjustment in educational attainment is an empirically relevant channel through which capital inflows foster economic growth.     

Foreign trade act in transition

“The flow of goods, services, capital, current payments and other transactions of trade across frontiers … is fundamentally free …” — with these words begins the German AuBenwirtschafts-Gesetz — AWG (Foreign Trade Act), Article Number One. After this Law had been passed in 1961, many interpreted its introduction as a sign that it represented a new Magna Charta of foreign trade.     

The Internationalization of Capital in a Small and Vulnerable Economy

Summary

Since the early 1980s, Ecuador has increasingly adopted a pro-free trade posture and has removed most restrictions on its capital account. Foreign capital, however, has not penetrated key sectors of the economy as the privatization drive has stalled and financial markets have remained weak. The combination of open capital accounts and meager foreign capital inflows has not proven particularly beneficial to Ecuador. Specifically, some aspects of the internationalization of capital such as offshore banking have created significant limitations for the conduct of monetary and exchange rate policy and have added to the vulnerability of the country in the face of economic crises. These negative externalities of cross-border short-term capital movements are not balanced by inflows of long-term foreign capital.     

An examination of the investments in U.S. biotechnology firms by foreign and domestic corporate partners

This study examines the characteristics that make start-up biotechnology firms attractive alliance partners. We distinguish between firm specific and location-specific characteristics as well as between foreign and domestic corporate partners. We present and test a longitudinal model of alliance development based on data from 64 public biotechnology firms. The results provide evidence that foreign and domestic alliance capital inflows are driven by different factors. Firm-specific factors explain minimal variance in capital inflows from foreign alliance partners; rather, location-specific factors seem to matter more. The reverse is true for domestic alliance partners. Further, our results suggest that firm size moderates the relationship between location-specific factors and capital inflows from foreign alliance partners such that larger firms benefit more when located in technologically munificent environments.     

外资依赖问题--从经济增长角度的分析

从经济增长的角度分析外资依赖问题。首先通过一个经济模型,分析了东道国经济增长对外资产生依赖的内在机理,陷入外资依赖恶性循环的条件以及影响因素。然后通过拉美国家利用外资情况加以经验实证,并得到4点启示。     

Capital-flow management measures: What are they good for?

Are capital controls and macroprudential measures related to international exposures successful in achieving their objectives? Assessing their effectiveness is complicated by selection bias; countries which change their capital-flow management measures (CFMs) often share specific characteristics and are responding to changes in variables that the CFMs are intended to influence. This paper addresses these challenges by using a propensity-score matching methodology. We also create a new database with detailed information on weekly changes in controls on capital inflows, capital outflows, and macroprudential measures related to international transactions from 2009 to 2011 for 60 countries. Results show that these macroprudential measures can significantly reduce some measures of financial fragility. Most CFMs do not significantly affect other key targets, however, such as exchange rates, capital flows, interest-rate differentials, inflation, equity indices, and different volatilities. One exception is that removing controls on capital outflows may reduce real exchange rate appreciation. Therefore, certain CFMs can be effective in accomplishing specific goals—but most popular measures are not “good for” accomplishing their stated aims.     

Tapering talk: The impact of expectations of reduced Federal Reserve security purchases on emerging markets

In May 2013, Federal Reserve officials first began to talk of the possibility of tapering their security purchases. This “tapering talk” had a large negative impact on the exchange rate and financial markets in emerging markets. In this paper, we analyze who was hit and why. We find that countries with larger and more liquid markets and larger inflows of capital in prior years experienced more pressure on their exchange rate, foreign reserves, and equity prices. We interpret this as investors being able to rebalance their portfolios more easily when the target country has a large and liquid financial market.     

Economic informality and the venture funding impact of migrant remittances to developing countries

In developing countries, weak institutional capacity to observe and regulate the economy discourages foreign capital inflows vital to venture investment. This informality effect may differ for migrant remittances, inflows less reliant on formal arrangements. We use institutional and transaction cost theories to propose that informality shifts migrant remittances toward venture funding. Analyses in 48 developing countries observed from 2001 to 2009 support our proposition. When the informal sector exceeds approximately 46% of GDP, remittances increase venture funding availability. Migrants and their remittances are vital to funding new businesses and entrepreneurially-led economic growth in developing countries where substantial informality deters other foreign investors.     

The democratic method of obtaining capital—culture,governmentality and ethics of mass investment

The past thirty years have witnessed a range of complex changes in global and national political–economic landscapes. One of the most dramatic aspects of these changes is the “globalization” of finance capital. “Finance” is often said to be at the center of a new and globalizing set of financial spaces in which “everyday” actors are increasingly asked to participate. However, these developments are often depicted in the critical literature in epochal terms as political–economic configurations arising out of macro‐structural episodes of change. In contrast to these approaches, this paper argues for a “cultural economy” for finance as a way of both situating recent developments in a more specific and historically subtle manner and underscoring the ways in which “finance” is lived and constituted at a “minor” or everyday level. By assessing the advertising initiatives of three campaigns of “mass investment” from earlier moments of the twentieth century, this paper foregrounds some of the contexts out of and against which neo‐liberal modes of globalized finance arise, concluding that more historically‐situated accounts could lead to more contingent, and hence, contestable analyses of “global finance”.     

New forms of foreign investment in developing countries

To a growing extent, since the early 1970s “new forms” of foreign investment have developed which constitute a departure from full ownership of the capital by the foreign investor and the practice of “packaged” management services. What view is to be taken of these new forms of investment from the development policy aspect?     

Venture capital reputation: a blessing or a curse for entrepreneurial firm innovation—a contingent effect of industrial distance

This study investigates whether venture capital reputation is a blessing or a curse for entrepreneurial firm innovation by using data from 1553 observations of venture capital investments on entrepreneurial firms in China’s New Over-the-Counter (OTC) Market. Advantages that venture capital brings to entrepreneurial firms have been widely acknowledged in extant research. However, our research emphasizes the potential resource outflows rather than inflows when firms are embedded in a shared reputable venture capital, and finds that the curse effect of venture capital reputation on entrepreneurial firms is manifested. Furthermore, we develop the concept of venture capital “intra-industrial reputation” and “extra-industrial reputation” to give a contingent answer to the “blessing or curse” question. The conclusions are drawn indicating that the curse effect is contingent on industrial distance. Venture capital intra-industrial reputation is positively linked to entrepreneurial firm innovation, whereas extra-industrial reputation exerts a strong negative impact, which is responsible for the curse effect.     

What drives long-term capital flows? A theoretical and empirical investigation

What drives capital inflows in the long run? This paper illustrates how capital movements conform surprisingly well to the predictions of a neoclassical model with credit constraints. The most intriguing prediction of this class of models is that, contrary to a pure neoclassical model, domestic saving should act as a complement rather than a substitute to capital inflows. Nevertheless, this class of models keeps the neoclassical prediction that capital should flow to countries where it is most scarce. Using foreign debt data from 1970 to 1998, I find qualitative and quantitative evidence that supports these predictions.     

Figures from State Administration of Foreign Exchange——Delivered by Sun Lujun,Vice Director General from Capital Department of State Administration of Foreign Exchange

The foreign exchange receipt and disbursement since 2009
Since 2009,influenced by the international and domestic economic and financial situation,especially with the impact of the ongoing financial crisis,some changes appeared in the foreign exchange receipt and disbursement,and the slowdown of foreign capital＇s flow-in is a major one.     

„Rettungsprogramme“ für Krisenländer verschärften die Krise — eine Replik

In his reply, Niemeier accuses Boysen Hogrefe and Stolzenburg of erroneously ascribing the failing of the Greek programme to insufficient “ownership”, whereas the true cause is — in his view — an inadequate austerity policy. The alleged success of this policy in Portugal and Ireland refers solely to GDP growth and ignores the continuing high levels of unemployment in those countries. Boysen- Hogrefe and Stolzenburg insist that the “success” of a rescue programme actually implies that the respective country is able to return to capital markets. The Greek crisis was structural rather than cyclical, so a temporary stabilisation of domestic demand (financed by additional foreign debt) would not have solved the issue.     

外国资本流入对国内储蓄的动态效应研究

本文基于国际资本流动视角分析了外国资本流对我国国内储蓄的影响。通过实证分析,认为在短期内外国资本流对国内储蓄具有“挤入效应”,而长期则具有“挤出效应”。同时,结合我国储蓄与外国资本流入关系的动态变化,认为我国在引入外资过程中,更应注重对外资的利用效率,从而实现跨期资本流入的最优调整。     

Revisiting FDI-led growth hypothesis: the role of sector characteristics

Does foreign direct investment (FDI) lead to higher growth? What type of FDI really works? In this paper, we disaggregate FDIs based on their technological characteristics and investigate which kind of FDI leads to output growth. The results for the sample of OECD countries during the period 1985–2012 indicate that FDI inflows to Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) using and producing manufacturing and service sectors (ICT-based), non-ICT using and producing manufacturing and service sectors (non-ICT-based) and other sectors (non-ICT-other) play no role in contributing to economic growth. However, we provide evidence that absorptive capacities of host countries work through ICT-based FDI inflows. Only if the host countries have sufficient level of human capital, financial resources and technological infrastructure, ICT-based FDI will foster economic growth. The results are robust to controlling missing values, studying the subsample of emerging market economies and consideration of endogeneity.