Revisiting FDI-led growth hypothesis: the role of sector characteristics

Does foreign direct investment (FDI) lead to higher growth? What type of FDI really works? In this paper, we disaggregate FDIs based on their technological characteristics and investigate which kind of FDI leads to output growth. The results for the sample of OECD countries during the period 1985–2012 indicate that FDI inflows to Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) using and producing manufacturing and service sectors (ICT-based), non-ICT using and producing manufacturing and service sectors (non-ICT-based) and other sectors (non-ICT-other) play no role in contributing to economic growth. However, we provide evidence that absorptive capacities of host countries work through ICT-based FDI inflows. Only if the host countries have sufficient level of human capital, financial resources and technological infrastructure, ICT-based FDI will foster economic growth. The results are robust to controlling missing values, studying the subsample of emerging market economies and consideration of endogeneity.     

Determinants of FDI inflows to Arab economies

The paper studies location determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) to 16 Arab economies over the period from 1984 to 2012, by employing Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond linear dynamic panel data estimation. We find that market size, trade openness, preferential trade agreements and financial development have significant positive impact on FDI inflows to Arab economies. FDI in Arab economies appears to be resource seeking since the total oil supply variable is positive and significant. The paper finds that better institutions and educated labour force may play a key role in attracting FDI inflows. We suggest that Arab economies should sequence their economic policy measures with the institutional ones, beginning with a focus on privatization and trade liberalization, and subsequently shift to improvement in economic growth.     

De-industrialisation,comparative economic performance and FDI inflows in emerging economies

We address calls to incorporate comparative political economy considerations into IB scholarship. In particular, we conceptualise and test empirically the hitherto unexplored relationship between de-industrialisation and relative performance of groups of countries, and FDI inflows in emerging economies. Using a panel dataset over the period 1996–2004 and employing conceptual and methodological innovations (not least the use of comparative independent variables), we find support for the ideas that relative de-industrialisation of developed economies will increase FDI inflows into emerging economies, while the relative under-performance of developed countries will reduce it. We also find that divergence in business cycles-de-coupling between the two groups of countries fosters FDI inflows in emerging economies. These help explain and predict recent changes in the global business landscape and inform public policy and managerial practice.     

External Asymmetries in the Euro Area and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment

Soon after the introduction of the common currency, a divide emerged between two groups in the Euro area: one comprised of the North European countries achieving external surpluses and the other of the South European countries with large external deficits. This paper shows that different patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows across the Euro area countries contributed to this divergence. Our theoretical framework shows that if the economy is relatively capital‐intensive in the production of traded (non‐traded) output, FDI will be channelled in greater proportions to the traded (non‐traded) sector, thus improving (deteriorating) the trade balance. Focusing on ten Euro area countries over the period 1980 to 2009, we establish a positive (negative) long‐run effect of FDI inflows on the trade balance in the North (South). In the North, the positive effect stems from the traded sector FDI inflows that were significantly higher in comparison with the South, both before and after the EMU. In contrast, in the South, the increased FDI inflows in the post‐EMU era were dominated by investments in the non‐traded sector. When industry‐level data are employed, a positive (negative) long‐run effect of manufacturing (non‐manufacturing) FDI inflows on the trade balance in the North (South) is further established.     

Trade openness,foreign direct investment,and finance-growth nexus in the Eurozone countries

The paper investigates causal relationships between trade openness, foreign direct investment, financial development, and economic growth in 19 Eurozone countries over the period 1988–2013. Using a panel vector error-correction model (VECM), the empirical results show that these variables are cointegrated. The study shows that a combination of opening the Eurozone countries for trade and fostering their financial and economic development have elevated inflows of foreign direct investment into the region in the long run. At the same time, increasing inflows of foreign direct investment in the short run have propelled economic growth, which in return has strengthened the role of financial development and international trade to sustain economic growth in the region through feedback effects. The empirical results have important policy implications for countries in the Eurozone, especially those who face challenges as a result of lack of confidence in their financial system and those who face a sovereign debt crisis.     

Economic growth,trade and capital flows: A causal analysis of post-liberalised South Africa

Development Finance and EconometricsThis paper investigates the causal relationships between trade, capital inflows and economic growth in post-liberalised South Africa over the period from 1995 to 2011. The results show that economic growth in South Africa is driven primarily by trade and fixed investment rather than by capital inflows. However, the relationship between economic growth and imports is bidirectional, and thus economic growth in South Africa is associated to a greater extent with the export-led growth hypothesis than the import-led growth hypothesis. In addition, the results find in favour of growth-led FDI rather than FDI-led growth, and that portfolio inflows rather than FDI are integrated into the country's trade-led growth dynamics.     

Foreign direct investment and wages: a cross-country analysis

While globalization has led to overall economic growth in a number of countries, questions abound on its distributional effects, especially on rising wage inequality across nations. The main objective of this study is to investigate empirically the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on wages in a cross-country setting. We investigate the general equilibrium propositions that capital inflows (outflows) increase (lower) wages in host (home) countries due to the change in relative factor endowments. We also explore whether capital inflows have differential impacts on skilled and unskilled wages in developing economies. Time-series data on 26 countries, 15 developed and 11 developing, are used to fit the labour share equation derived from a translog GNP function with net FDI stock as one of its arguments. Results confirm that capital movement brings about a cross-country convergence of wages. However, there is some evidence that inward FDI flows increase the wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers in developing countries.     

Effects of cultural institutes on bilateral trade and FDI flows: Cultural diplomacy or economic altruism?

The number of cultural institutes from major developed and developing countries increased significantly in the last twenty years. In this paper, using cross-sectional and panel data analysis on bilateral trade in goods and services, and FDI inflows and outflows, we examine the economic effects of 1,266 cultural institutes from China, France, Germany, Japan, Portugal, Spain, Turkey and UK for the period of 1990–2015. The empirical results suggest that cultural institutes have significantly positive trade and FDI enhancing effects, which are persistent over time. However, these effects are most robust only with goods exports and FDI outflows. Furthermore, the economic effects of cultural institutes are not homogenous across destinations and are the strongest for developed rather than developing host countries. There is also significant heterogeneity among cultural institutes with significant differences in their economic effects on different types of bilateral trade and FDI flows.     

FDI,Growth and the Asian Financial Crisis: The Experience of Selected Asian Countries

This paper studies the trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into selected South‐East Asian and East Asian economies after the Asian crisis. Empirical evidence indicates that South‐East and East Asian economies are recovering from the Asian crisis with strong output growth driven largely by export growth. However, output growth in the post‐crisis period is also accompanied by rising unemployment rates, growing government deficits, and declining FDI inflows into the South‐East Asian region. The declining FDI inflows into South‐East Asia after the crisis is of concern, as our empirical results show that FDI is important for output growth in the region. Our results also suggest that there might have been structural changes in the regional economies that could have led to a downward shift in the output growth of Asian economies in the post‐crisis period. This raises the issue of the sustainability of their output growth in the post‐crisis period.     

Asymmetric effects of cultural institutes on trade and foreign direct investment

The purpose of a cultural institute is to improve international relations with other countries by promoting language familiarity and cultural awareness. In addition, cultural institutes can provide additional business opportunities that lead to positive economic side effects such as increases in trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). In this study, gravity models were used to analyse the data for the Goethe Institut (Germany), the Cervantes Institute (Spain) and the Confucius Institute (China) to identify any stylised international patterns of the documented economic effects. The study finds significant positive effects on bilateral trade and FDI outflows for all three programmes, along with two important (i) the effects are stronger for non‐advanced economies and (ii) the effects are substantially larger on FDI than on trade. These results suggest that cultural institutes can be an effective policy tool in promoting FDI outflows, with the strongest effect realised when a home country locates its cultural institutes in host countries with developing economies. Importantly, results also suggest that the Chinese government's approach to extend its soft power through rapid expansion of Confucius Institutes worldwide has not been as successful as the efforts by the German Goethe Institut in increasing trade and FDI.     

区域贸易协定、FDI与内生经济增长——中国-东盟FTA的经验证据

本文以内生增长理论为基础,通过一个联立方程组回归模型实证分析了中国-东盟FTA(CAFTA)成员经济增长的影响及其对成员吸引FDI流入的效应。结果显示,CAFTA对促进区域整体的FDI流入具有积极影响,但对区域内不同成员的FDI流入促进效应并不均等,即国内市场规模大、经济发展水平高的成员更能吸引FDI的流入,投资效应更加显著。在增长效应方面,FDI对CAFTA整体的增长效应为正且具有显著性。但FDI的溢出渠道在不同成员间存在一定差异。CAFTA的建设中应注意成员间利益的均衡分配问题以维持CAFTA的稳定性和可持续性。     

International R&D spillovers in emerging markets: The impact of trade and foreign direct investment

While economic theory predicts that growth in developing countries will gain significantly from technology spillovers, the empirical evidence on this issue remains relatively scarce. The present study focuses on a panel of 27 transition and 20 developed countries between 1990 and 2006 and uses the latest developments in panel unit root and cointegration techniques to disentangle the effects of international spillovers via inflows of trade and FDI on total factor productivity (TFP). The findings show that imports remain the main channel of diffusion for both sets of countries, while FDI, although statistically significant, has a lower impact on productivity of the recipients. The domestic R&D capital stock plays an active role in Western Europe while in the Eastern part it is less significant owing to lower levels, transitional disinvestment and relative obsolescence. Human capital affects TFP directly as a factor of production as well as indirectly by enhancing a country's absorptive capacity. In aggregate, the results show that transition countries from Eastern Europe and Central Asia seem to enjoy bigger productivity gains from the international diffusion process than their Western counterparts.     

Introduction to the Special Issue: Management in Africa in the Global Context 1

ABSTRACT

The primary focus of this introductory article is to provide a synoptic peek into the challenges and opportunities facing the countries of Africa in today's global economy and in their attempts to develop their national economies to achieve what is commonly termed the Millennium Development Goals. While foreign direct investment (FDI) is seen as a way to attain these goals, FDI flows to African countries remain extremely low. If Africa is to attract diversified FDI inflows, not just those focused on extractive/natural resources, African countries need to develop a system of management that is effective and efficient, internationally oriented and nationally focused, culturally inclusive and institutionally supportive and reliable, and one that promotes business growth and economic development with a sense of social responsibility.     

Causality nexus of exports,FDI and economic growth of the ASEAN5 economies: evidence from panel data analysis

This paper analyzes the causal relationships between exports, FDI and economic growth among the ASEAN5 countries. We have used a three-stage procedure based on unit root, co-integration and causality tests applied to the panel data from 1981 to 2013. The results reveal that there is a bi-directional causal relationship between FDI and growth in the long run, while there is a unidirectional causal relationship from FDI to exports in the short run. Our results also confirm that the export-led growth (ELG) and FDI-led growth hypotheses hold true in the long and short run. To reinforce the FDI inflows, authorities should continue the progressive reduction of barriers, and increase the sophistication of quality exports to compete in the global market. This paper is the first of its kind to analyze the role of both FDI and exports in the ASEAN5 economies using panel analysis.     

Place,space, and foreign direct investment into peripheral cities

Perspectives drawn from the economic geography literature are increasingly used to generate insights into locational issues in international business. In this paper, we seek to integrate these literatures further by investigating the locational determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) into peripheral cities within an emerging economy. Peripheral cities in emerging economies are attracting a growing proportion of global FDI flows, but the international business literature lacks a framework for understanding subnational determinants of FDI, particularly into non-core locations. We draw on the core-periphery model to build and test theory on how spatial interdependencies between subnational locations impact on the distribution of FDI inflows into a large and heterogeneous country China. Our results show that whilst peripheral cities tend to have a negative effect on FDI, this effect is positively moderated by proximity to core cities. The results highlight the importance of considering interactions between place and space when investigating locational issues in international business.     

Prospects for the Greek Economy in the Post‐enlargement Era

This paper examines the consequences for Greece of the EU enlargement eastwards. The analysis is based on an evaluation of the Greek economy competitiveness relative to the economies of the acceding and candidate countries during the last decade. Using data disaggregated up to the third digit, the magnitude of Greek inter‐ and intra‐industry trade with the above countries is determined and contrasted to the corresponding trade with the EU. Other issues examined are the effects from factor movements such as the FDI flows and migration, and the macroeconomic effects from the reallocation of EU funds. Enlargement is expected to exert positive trade and FDI effects on the Greek economy, a negative effect on future economic growth as a result of budgetary reductions and an uncertain effect on labour markets from migration. A non‐exploited trade potential of Greece with the Balkan countries creates further opportunities for regional development.     

Economic and Political Determinants of the Effects of FDI on Growth in Transition and Developing Countries

This study investigates the role of human capital and political development in determining the magnitude of the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth for a panel of 61 transition and developing countries for the period 1989 to 2013. A baseline growth model incorporating these variables is tested and then extended to include FDI interaction effects with human capital (measured using secondary school enrollment data) and political development (based on Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index scores). These growth interaction effects between FDI and human capital vary according to regime type. Political development in conjunction with FDI appears to suppress the effects of FDI on growth in authoritarian countries while enhancing them in hybrid democracies. For more democratic countries, domestic investment is a more important driver of growth. The effects of FDI on growth in the ten transition economies included in the sample data set are found to be insignificant. Although this result might seem to differ from a priori expectations, it is in line with the findings of most earlier studies that cover the period up to 2004. The paper also provides no strong evidence that a critical threshold of human capital is required to generate beneficial spillover growth effects from inflows of FDI. The paper provides new and more detailed insights into the effects of FDI on growth with particular respect to human capital and political regime covering a large number of transition and developing countries based on an up‐to‐date data set covering a 25‐year period to 2013. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Capital flows to central and Eastern Europe

We examine the evolution of the external position in CEE countries over the past decade, with a strong emphasis on the composition of the international balance sheet. We assess the extent of their international financial integration, in comparison to the advanced economies and other emerging markets, and highlight the most salient features of their external capital structure in terms of the relative importance of FDI, portfolio equity, and external debt. In addition, we briefly describe the bilateral and currency composition of their external liabilities. Finally, we explore the implications of the accumulated stock of external liabilities for future trade and current account balances.     

Do All Foreign Direct Investment Inflows Benefit the Local Economy?

The present study measures the impact of FDI inflows on the local economies of the US states that receive most of the FDI inflows in the country. It appears that FDI inflows in manufacturing have rather weak effects on local employment and wages in most of the states in the sample. However, these results are primarily due to the industry composition of the FDI. FDI inflows in Printing and Publishing, Transportation Equipment and Instruments have positive effects on local employment and wages, while FDI inflows in Leather and Stone/Clay/Glass have detrimental effects on local labour markets in most of the states in the sample. These findings indicate the importance of industry characteristics in evaluating the effects of FDI inflows on local communities. Also, they emphasise the need for US states to selectively target and attract FDI inflows in specific industries.     

Global Fiscal Adjustment and Trade Rebalancing

The emergence of substantial fiscal deficits and a large build up of government debt in major advanced economies will inevitably lead to a period of fiscal consolidation in coming years. In an earlier paper, Asian Economic Papers, 9, 2010 and 54, explored the effects of this fiscal adjustment in advanced economies on the global economic outlook. This paper focuses on the differences between the impacts of fiscal policy in advanced versus emerging economies. In particular, the need for more fiscal spending on infrastructure in emerging economies and the need for fiscal consolidation in advanced economies leads naturally to the question of what this asymmetric fiscal adjustment might do to global trade balances as well as global economic growth over the coming decades. The adjustment needed in both regions is substantial, and the asymmetry of the adjustment implies important consequences for trade and capital flows between regions as well as asset price adjustments within and between regions.