Emigration and wages: The EU enlargement experiment

The enlargement of the European Union provides a unique opportunity to study the impact of the lifting of migration restrictions on the migrant sending countries. With EU enlargement in 2004, 1.2 million workers from Eastern Europe emigrated to the UK and Ireland. I use this emigration wave to show that emigration significantly changed the wage distribution in the sending country, in particular between young and old workers. Using a novel dataset from Lithuania, the UK and Ireland for the calibration of a structural model of labor demand, I find that over the period of five years emigration increased the wages of young workers by 6%, while it had no effect on the wages of old workers. Contrary to the immigration literature, there is no significant effect of emigration on the wage distribution between high-skilled and low-skilled workers.     

Factor rewards and the international migration of unskilled labor: a model with capital mobility

"Conventional economic wisdom holds that the migration of unskilled labor from less developed countries to neighboring developed countries should be expected to narrow the wage gap between those countries, and thereby reduce the incentive for further migration. [The authors suggest that] if capital is mobile internationally this reasoning may be inappropriate. Instead, emigration of unskilled labor out of the less developed country provides an incentive for capital to leave the country, too. As a consequence, wage rates move in the same direction in each country, and the gap between wage rates across countries even may increase."     

The Economies of the Baltic Sea Region: Growth Patterns and Foreign Trade Now and in the Future

The article studies the economic growth patterns of the Baltic Sea Region countries, describes their gross domestic product trends, and predicts the future developments. As foreign trade is one characteristic of interrelationships between the countries, the geographical pattern of foreign trade is analyzed, especially emphasizing the linkages between the countries in the Baltic Sea Region. The article pays attention also to the perspectives in the 2025 time framework and ends with some comments regarding the conditions for future development.     

Trade,migration costs and asymmetric migration patterns

Increase in trade has an asymmetric impact on emigration by skill types for a developing country. Cost of migration is a dynamic function of the type of emigration, and it determines a complementary relation between emigration of skilled workers and expansion of trade. Emigration of unskilled workers is a substitute, however, and these outcomes coexist with endogenously determined emigration rates that depend crucially on wage responses among the own skill types at the source. Additionally, asymmetric emigration patterns increase wage inequality.     

Liquefied Natural Gas in the Baltic Sea Region

This study analyzes the liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal plans and their impact on gas supply in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR). Although the realized capacity of the planned terminals will be smaller than the planned one, these LNG terminals are strategic investments, as they will introduce competition that has a lowering impact on the price, and moreover, the terminals will improve the security of gas supply, though the BSR cannot build its gas supply on the LNG deliveries alone. In other words, the terminals will not replace Russia's deliveries but rather allow the countries in the eastern BSR to diversify a proportion of their gas supply.     

Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte im Euroraum

The internal imbalances in the euro area are often cited as one of the main reasons for the crisis there. The surpluses, especially those of Germany, correspond to the deficits in the euro area problem countries — Greece, Italy, Ireland, Spain and Portugal. An analysis of the trade and services balances of the problem countries, however, shows that this was only true up to 2004. Since 2005 their deficits with the rest of the world have been bigger, especially with China. Now the imbalances with China, not Germany, are the main concern for euro area problem countries. The reasons for this development were the strong appreciation of the euro and the structure of the economies of the euro area problem countries, which brought them into direct competition with China. Revaluation of other currencies, especially the renminbi, would enable the euro area crisis countries to pursue growth-friendly fiscal consolidation in which stronger external demand replaces internal demand. This was how Germany consolidated its budget — lower fiscal deficits were compensated by external demand contributions. The problem countries could simultaneously shrink both their fiscal and external deficits. Internal devaluation through wage moderation, however, dampens domestic demand and is recessionary in the short term.     

Innovations in the Baltic Rim Region until 2025: Challenges and Prospects

This article examines the role of different actors (European Union [EU] structures, governmental institutions of the member-states, and regional companies with global outreach) in development of the innovation strategy in the Baltic Sea Rim. We identify three sub-regions, which are now in the stage of gradual convergence (“old” and “new” member-states of the EU as well as Russia), and focus on the main challenge to the region today, which is the ability of its countries to secure and strengthen the liberal nature of their socioeconomic systems. This research is based on the findings of the studies undertaken by authors as well as on our personal experience in the development of the Russian innovative ecosystem. It concludes that to avoid technological lagging behind other regions, governments of the Baltic Sea countries should complement the EU policies by implementing a set of proactive measures aimed at promotion of national innovations and intraregional cooperation.     

中间产品贸易、技术溢出与发展中国家的工资差距:一个理论框架

中间产品贸易的技术溢出是国际贸易影响熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力之间工资差距的一个重要机制。本文构建了一个理论框架,从中间产品贸易及其技术溢出效应的角度解释发展中国家相对工资差距不断扩大的现实。发展中国家从技术前沿的发达国家进口资本和技术密集型的中间产品,一方面可以使发展中国家间接地分享国际先进的R&D资本;另一方面给发展中国家带来了技术学习和模仿的机会。由于资本与技能的互补性和技术学习的技能偏向性,中间产品进口使发展中国家增加了对熟练劳动力的相对需求,从而扩大了熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力之间的工资差距。     

Group Action in the Baltic States

The article is based on a study which aimed at examining the existence and use of group actions in consumer issues in the Baltic states. It was part of a larger research project in which the same questions were studied in all Central and Eastern European countries. Besides group actions in courts, administrative group actions were also studied.A starting point for the study was an overview of substantive consumer protection legislation in the Baltic states. In spite of the fact that there has been a rapid development in this field during recent years, the main finding was that many substantive law elements of consumers' collective interests, which in the EU Member States are often protected by different kinds of group actions, are as yet not regulated at all in the Baltic states or not regulated in a sufficiently detailed way in the Baltic states.The study showed that several kinds of group action exist in these countries. Firstly, there are administrative group actions for injunction. They are applied mainly in cases concerning product information, product safety, and unfair competition. Secondly, a group action by a consumer organisation for injunction in a court is, in principle, possible in Estonia and Lithuania, but not in Latvia. So far, no case law exists, however. A genuine group action for compensation is not possible in the Baltic countries, but a consumer organization may represent an individual consumer or a specified group of consumers in a court and may claim compensation on their behalf. The study showed that administrative group actions are a functioning part of the present consumer protection system in these countries, whereas court actions so far exist only on paper. It also showed that in the Baltic states, procedural means are in some matters better developed than substantive consumer law, whereas in many western countries, the exact opposite is the case. The article concludes with some recommendations as to how the Baltic states could develop their consumer protection legislation.     

Health and Life Sciences as Drivers for Regional Development and Prosperity in the Baltic Sea Region

This article describes the role of health and life sciences as drivers for regional development and prosperity in the Baltic Sea Region. The rapid development of new technologies in combination with steadily increasing data mining capabilities revolutionizes prediction, prevention, and treatment of illnesses. Together with the demographic change, this will challenge the sustainability of regional and national health systems across the BSR. Furthermore, globalization potentially leads to major threats to the health of citizens by pandemic incidents. Due to their dimension and the fragmentation of health care systems and markets, these challenges can be met only with new, multidimensional, cross-sectoral, and innovative approaches involving a broad range of actors and stakeholders. Furthermore, there is a growing need to incorporate health concerns and innovation issues into all policy levels. For the Baltic Sea Region this is both a challenge and an economic opportunity.     

劳动禀赋结构和技术效应结构——贸易与工资差距研究范式新探

在回顾文献基础上,本文梳理出贸易影响工资差距的机制,认为在劳动供给结构不变的前提下,工资差距决定于劳动需求结构变动,而劳动禀赋结构和技术效应结构是研究两者关系的重要范式。劳动禀赋结构模型是在两国生产两种产品且技术水平相同的框架下,贸易品由于劳动禀赋结构不同,导致单位成本产出水平变动,进而影响劳动需求结构和工资差距;而技术效应结构模型则是在两国生产一种产品且技术水平不同的框架下,贸易品由于技术效应结构不同,导致相对工资和劳动需求关系曲线变动,进而影响劳动需求结构和工资差距,而且直接效应和间接效应的传导机制有很大差别。     

Skill classification does matter: estimating the relationship between trade flows and wage inequality

Empirical work must pay careful attention to how it measures the relative skill abundance of countries and the relative skill intensity embodied in trade flows. This paper compiles a new data set, using income levels, average education, manufacturing wages, and an index of these three variables, to classify countries and trade flows as relatively high skill or low skill. Then, in order to show the importance of skill classification, it uses a reduced-form fixed-effects model to estimate the relationship between trade flows and wage inequality. This specification not only controls for any time-invariant omitted variables, but also permits the inclusion of a large number of diverse countries. When more accurate skill rankings are utilized, results suggest that, in high-skill abundant countries, increased trade with lower-skill countries is correlated with an increase in wage inequality. This relationship is significant and highly robust and is driven by the negative relationship between trade and low-skill wages (instead of a positive relationship between trade and high-skill wages.) Results, however, are highly dependent on the skill classification utilized.     

The Baltic Model for the Settlement of Individual Consumer Disputes

The aim of this study is to assess the possibilities consumers in the Baltic countries have to fulfil their rights in individual consumer disputes by using different forms of alternative dispute resolution. Special attention will be paid to the relation between the existing alternative dispute resolution (ADR) systems and the European Commission's Recommendation 1998 on ADR. The main finding is that in all three countries individual disputes are settled by the same consumer authorities which are also protecting consumers' collective interests. The system resembles in many respects the Nordic model but there are some significant differences. These differences give good reason to speak about the "Baltic model," which differs from all systems existing in the EC Member States. The most remarkable difference is the right to impose administrative sanctions if a trader refuses to comply with a decision which a consumer authority has made with respect to an individual consumer dispute. The basic structure of the Baltic model does not clash with the principles of the EC Recommendation on ADR adopted in 1998. On the contrary, in practice the Baltic model gives better guarantees for consumer access to justice in individual disputes than many systems used in the Member States.     

International Migration,the Brain Drain and Poverty: A Cross‐country Analysis

The aim of the paper is threefold. First, it empirically investigates the effect of international migration on poverty in origin countries, using data from a cross‐country analysis. Second, it explores the specific part of the income distribution from which migrants are drawn, by comparing the effect of international migration on different income quintiles of the population. Finally, given that the selection of migrants depends not only on the income level of their households, but also on the skill levels of movers, the paper casts some light on the implications of the emigration of skilled workers on poverty. This article shows that the stock of international migrants have a positive effect on the income of the poor while it does not have a significant impact on the income of the middle and top quintiles of the population. In particular, a 10 per cent increase in the per capita stock of migrants resident in OECD nations augments the income of the poor by 1 per cent, on average and ceteris paribus. Finally, the poverty‐reducing effect of migration holds even when the emigration process selects the best and the brightest.     

Global Value Chains,the Rise of the Robots and Human Capital

This essay examines whether robots will lead to the reshoring of activity from low-wage countries to rich countries, leading to a revival of manufacturing in rich countries. I argue that reshoring will not lead to an employment boom in rich countries, because the brilliant robots are a capital-biased technology, and as such, they potentially replace smart people. As a result, the skill premium – the wage discrepancy between a university graduate and a high school graduate – is declining in Europe. I argue further that the expansion of higher education has been too aggressive in light of the capital bias of digital technology.     

从人才流失到人才环流:一个理论模型

在全球化浪潮下,跨国移民由之前的单向流动(即发展中国家向发达国家流动)越来越多地呈现出双向甚至是多向流动,因此移民也由简单的“人才流失”变成了复杂的“人才流动”。本文通过设计一个跨期工作搜寻模型,解释了复杂的跨国人才流动行为,并且从理论上论证了移民输出国也可能会由于移民的跨期流动而获益,也就是说,我们不应将移民看成是对移民输出国有损的“人才流失”。     

GROWTH,COMMODITY PRICES,INFLATION AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME

A primary commodity price boom is underway. Given the role of internationally traded primary commodities as inputs into the productive process in the industrialized world, an important question arises: namely what effects will this price‐boom exert upon wage and price inflation in industrialized countries? In order to address this question, we specify and estimate a system of equations in which the key dependent variables are world commodity prices, the domestic inflation rate for finished goods and the rate of domestic industrial wage inflation. This model is estimated against data for each of three major industrialized countries: Japan, the UK and the USA and the implications of the results thus obtained are explored.     

贸易增长与工资差距(1990～2009)——基于劳动禀赋结构和技术效应结构的经验研究

文章从劳动禀赋结构和技术效应结构视角建立模型,研究中国近20年贸易增长与工资差距的关系。回归、Granger检验和Chow突变点分析发现:工资差距主要受与人均GNI更高国家之间贸易占贸易总额比率的影响,两者呈负相关关系;与低技能劳动密集型产品的产值占GDP比重关系密切;同时也和加工贸易、高新技术产品贸易的增长有显著的负的线性相关关系;事实表面上有悖于实际却佐证了要素价格均等化理论和S-S定理,而被广为引用的中间产品贸易模型和贸易的科技进步效应理论在某个角度上却缺乏经验支持;全球化与"赶超"式发展必然导致工资差距进一步扩大。     

Mind the Gender Wage Gap – the Impact of Trade and Competition on Sectoral Wage Differences

This paper examines differences between women’s and men’s wages in 18 selected OECD countries in the period 1970 to 2005. The study is based on 12 manufacturing sector‐ and skill‐specific sets of panel data on the gender wage gap. We apply a system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator to the extended version of the conditional gender wage gap convergence equation, controlling for sector concentration and industry‐specific measures of openness using a difference‐in‐difference approach: trade‐affected concentrated sectors versus trade‐affected competitive sectors. The results indicate that: (i) an increase in sector concentration is associated with wage gap growth; (ii) both import and export penetration are associated with a reduction of the high‐skill gender wage gap growth in concentrated industries; (iii) there is evidence of a widening impact of trade on the medium and low‐skill occupational gender wage gap growth in less competitive industries; (iv) institutional regulations of the labour market have an impact on the development of the gender wage gap: for highly‐skilled labour an increase in labour market regulation raises the growth of the gender wage gap, while for medium‐ and low‐skilled workers, it lowers it.     

关中—天水经济区人类发展水平空间差异分析

以人类发展指数(HDI)为测度指标,利用HDI计算公式及ESDA方法,对关中-天水经济区65个区县的人类发展水平进行空间差异分析及空间关联分类。关中-天水经济区人类发展水平大多数处于中下水平,且区域差异明显,呈现由市辖区向周边区县递减的分布特点;构成人类发展指数的三个指标中预期寿命指数和教育指数的区域差异较小,而GDP指数区域差异大;关中-天水各区县的人类发展指数存在较强的正的空间相关性,西安市的雁塔区、未央区、莲湖区、碑林区等9个区县成为高-高聚集型区县的显著性聚集区,而天水市的张家川、清水县、秦安县和宝鸡市的陇县等6个区县成为低-低聚集型的最显著区域。针对关中-天水经济区人类发展水平的区域差异,提出相应的政策建议。