INVESTMENT SPIKES AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE PETROLEUM REFINING INDUSTRY*

This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on the investment decisions of petroleum refineries in the U.S. We construct uncertainty measures from the commodity futures market and use data on actual capacity changes to measure investment episodes. Since capacity changes in U.S. refineries occur infrequently, we empirically model the investment process using hazard models. An increase in uncertainty decreases the probability that a refinery might adjust its capacity. The results are robust to various investment thresholds. Our findings lend support to theories that emphasize the role of irreversibility in investment decisions.     

RELATIONSHIPS,COMPETITION AND THE STRUCTURE OF INVESTMENT BANKING MARKETS*

It is well known that competition can destroy incentives to invest in firm‐specific relationships. This paper examines how the tension between relationships and competition is resolved in the investment banking market, which for decades has been characterized by both relationships and competition. The model studies the impact on relationships of four different dimensions of competition: non‐exclusive relationships, competition from arm's‐length intermediaries, non‐price competition, and endogenous entry. The analysis shows how market equilibrium adjusts so that relationships are sustained in the face of such competition. Banks are shown to establish relationships without either local or aggregate monopoly power. The model rationalizes two distinct empirical regularities of market structure: the invariance of market concentration to market size; and a pyramidal market structure with an oligopoly comprising similar‐sized players at the top and a large number of small banks at the bottom. The analysis may also shed light on the industrial organization of other professional service industries.     

投资指南

山东华懋阻燃新材料产品生产项目一、项目名称:阻燃系列产品生产项目二、项目单位概况:山东华懋阻燃新材料科技有限公司成立于2004年2月。公司占地35亩,建筑面积7400平方米。现有职工35人,高中级专业技术人员15人。公司与国家防火建筑材料质量检验中心、北京理工大学、燕山石化公司等国内知名检测机构,科研机构、特大企业建立了紧密合作,形成了从产品开发、生产、检测一条龙服务相结合的科技开发和生产体系。该公司是国内首家获得国家防火建材质检中心颁发的<<燃烧性     

投资指南

汕头保税区纺织工业城；棉花深加工产业化建设项目；三万锭高档面料针织用纱生产项目；高档纺织面料生产；牡丹江市冠通纺织有限责任公司棉麻生产项目；高档细支服装面料项目；柞蚕丝、绢纱生产；寻求合资，合作扩建织造项目；高档砂磨异色针织成衣染整技术改造项目；广东省中山市民众镇民三工业区（B）区；引进染整设备、发展色织产品。     

INVESTMENT OPTIONS AND BARGAINING POWER: THE EURASIAN SUPPLY CHAIN FOR NATURAL GAS*

We use cooperative game theory to analyze the power structure in the pipeline network for Russian gas. If the assessment is narrowly focused on the abilities to obstruct flows in the existing system, the main transit countries, Belarus and Ukraine, appear to be strong. Once investment options are accounted for, Russia achieves clear dominance. Competition between transit countries is of little strategic relevance compared to Russia's direct access to its customers. Comparing our theoretical results with empirical evidence, we find that the Shapley value explains the power of major transit countries better than the core and the nucleolus.     

DOES ORGANIZATIONAL FORM AFFECT INVESTMENT DECISIONS?*

I investigate whether organizational changes affect investment decisions using evidence from the hospital industry in the United States. During the 1990s, hospitals and physicians have reorganized the way they trade with each other, vertically consolidating the provision of healthcare services. I provide empirical evidence that hospitals adopting the new organizational forms add more healthcare services over time than hospitals that are independent of their physicians. I also find that when the average percentage of county population covered by each HMO increases, the differences in investment behavior between vertically consolidated and independent hospitals become larger.     

BREAKING DOWN A LONG-RUN MARGINAL COST OF AN LP INVESTMENT MODEL INTO A MARGINAL OPERATING COST AND A MARGINAL EQUIVALENT INVESTMENT COST

In linear programming, a simple observation on duality allows us to break down a long-run marginal cost into a marginal operating cost and a marginal equivalent investment cost. This marginal equivalent investment cost is an acceptable means of allocating the equivalent investment cost to the different finished products (and similarly for the marginal operating cost). It is useful for determining the products on which a sales campaign should focus and for analyzing short-run marginal costs once an investment decision has been taken. As an example, we will examine a simplified investment model in the oil refining industry.     

输气管道阴极保护问题排查及思考

通过对输气管道阴极保护系统存在问题的排查分析,阐述了阴极保护施工、检验、测试的重要性,为以后阴保工程调试运行提供经验。     

INVESTMENT ANALYSIS FOR AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRONICS MANUFACTURING: A CASE STUDY

Investment opportunities for electronics manufacturing can create many challenging components within the standard context of economic analysis theory. First, most of these operations are dependent on significant capital investment with short analysis periods due to technological obsolescence. These problems are compounded with the reality of short product lives and fluctuating consumer demands. Perhaps the most challenging environment for electronics manufacturing is that of automotive electronics. These facilities are typically faced with similar manufacturing issues common in all electronics production but have the added difficulty in meeting very stringent quality and reliability requirements in a globally competitive market. This case study investigates the challenges in evaluating investment options in electronics manufacturing and pays specific attention to those issues that are most common to the automotive electronics market. In addition, the analysis investigates various sensitivity issues related to these investment opportunities and investigates an alternative investment option for a flexible manufacturing process.     

OPTIMAL PRICING AND QUALITY CHOICE WHEN INVESTMENT IN QUALITY IS IRREVERSIBLE

This paper examines the price and quality choice of a single product, risk-neutral monopolist who can delay irreversible investments required for market entry. It is shown that the price and quality she chooses at entry increase with uncertainty about the size of future demand. In a Stackelberg leader-follower game, the leader and follower pre-commit immediately up to a certain level of uncertainty. In this case the leader produces the higher quality good. When uncertainty is higher than this threshold, the follower will wait and enter the market later with a higher quality good.     

CUSTOMER POWER,STRATEGIC INVESTMENT,AND THE FAILURE OF LEADING FIRMS

Why might firms be regarded as astutely managed at one point, yet subsequently lose their positions of industry leadership when faced with technological change? We present a model, grounded in a study of the world disk drive industry, that charts the process through which the demands of a firm's customers shape the allocation of resources in technological innovation—a model that links theories of resource dependence and resource allocation. We show that established firms led the industry in developing technologies of every sort—even radical ones—whenever the technologies addressed existing customers' needs. The same firms failed to develop simpler technologies that initially were only useful in emerging markets, because impetus coalesces behind, and resources are allocated to, programs targeting powerful customers. Projects targeted at technologies for which no customers yet exist languish for lack of impetus and resources. Because the rate of technical progress can exceed the performance demanded in a market, technologies which initially can only be used in emerging markets later can invade mainstream ones, carrying entrant firms to victory over established companies.     

DETERMINATION OF ECONOMIC VALUE ADDED FOR A PROPOSED INVESTMENT IN NEW MANUFACTURING

This paper discusses a measure for estimating the wealth creation potential of capital investments in manufacturing. The measure, called “Economic Value Added,” has recently become popular in the United States and can be derived from an after-tax analysis of cash flows generated by a capital investment. A proposed investment in manufacturing capacity is analyzed to illustrate the after-tax cash flow calculations required to determine its EVA potential.     

环氧乙烷衍生物的投资效益分析

高级脂肪醇聚氧乙烯醚、烷基酚聚氧乙烯醚、乙醇胺和乙烯胺是环氧乙烷的重要衍生物,以它们为对象的投资项目有不同的经济效益。目前国内对乙醇胺／乙烯胺项目的投资,不仅可以填补国内空白,而且可获得良好的经济效益。     

A COMPARISON BETWEEN TWO MULTIATTRIBUTE DECISION METHODOLOGIES USED IN CAPITAL INVESTMENT DECISION ANALYSIS

Two multicriteria decision methodologies applied to evaluating capital investments are the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Non-Traditional Capital Investment Criteria (NCIC) model. In this paper we demonstrate that a mathematical relationship exists between these two models. In-particular, a data set obtained by one method can be mapped into an equivalent data set obtained using the other method. It is suggested that this offers an opportunity of empirically assessing decision makers judgmental capabilities under varying data collection methods. An example problem illustrates the manner in which such comparisons can be made.