The changing pattern of international trade in manufactures: A logit analysis

Zusammenfassung Ver?nderungen im Welthandel mit Industriegütern: Eine LogitAnalyse. — Dieser Aufsatz berichtet über die Ergebnisse einer empirischen Untersuchung, in der die güterm?\ige Zusammensetzung des internationalen Handels mit Industrieerzeugnissen im Wandel der Zeit geprüft wird. Die Hypothesen für eine Analyse des Konzepts der „revealed comparative advantages“ für eine L?nderquerschnittsanalyse mit vielen Gütern werden in “schwacher” Form aufgestellt und mit Hilfe des Logit-Verfahrens getestet. Die Ergebnisse unterstreichen, daβ die statische Handelsstruktur ma\geblich von den Proportionen zwischen Humankapital und dem Faktor Arbeit bestimmt wird. Nicht gestützt wird die Faktorproportionenhypothese auf der Grundlage des Verh?ltnisses zwischen physischem Kapital und Arbeit. Au\erdem zeigt sich, da\ sowohl das technologische Alter der Erzeugnisse als auch wiederum die Humankapitalintensit?t wichtige Bestimmungsgründe für die Dynamik der Handelsstruktur im Sinne des Produktzyklus sind.

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Résumé La structure changeante du commerce international des produits manufacturés: une analyse logit. — Cet article rapporte les résultats d’une investigation empirique sur la composition par produit du commerce en biens manufacturiers et sur ses changements au cours du temps. L’auteur formule des hypothèses du type ?faible? et les teste en se servirant de la méthode logit et une analyse trans-pays et multi-biens de l’avantage comparatif révélé. Les résultats soulignent la dominance des proportions entre le capital humain et la main d’oeuvre comme déterminants des structures statiques du commerce, mais ne supportent pas une hypothèse des proportions de facteur basée sur le capital physique et la main-d’∄uvre. De plus, les résultats montrent que l’age technologique du produit et encore une fois l’intensité au capital humain sont des déterminants importants de la dynamique de la structure commerciale du type du cycle de bien.

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Resumen La estructura cambiante del comercio internacional en manufacturas: un análisis del tipo ?logit?. — Este artículo informa sobre los resultados de una investigación empírica de la composición de productos del comercio de manufacturas y sus cambios a través del tiempo. Para un análisis multi-productos a través de países de ventajas comparativas reveladas, se establecen hipótesis en forma ?débil? y se someten a prueba a través de un análisis de tipo ?logit?. Los resultados subrayan el dominio de proporciones capital humanomano de obra como déterminantes de las estructuras de comercio estatico, pero no sustentan una hipótesis de proporciones de factures basada en capital físico versus trabajo. Más aún, ellos sugieren la edad tecnológica del producto y de nuevo la intensidad de capital humano como los mayores determinantes de la dinámica de la estructura de comercio del tipo ciclo productivo.

     

The scholarly output of economists: A description of publishing patterns

This paper analyzes the research productivity of a cohort of economists over the 15 years following receipt of their doctorate degrees, contrasting their results in publishing articles, books, and textbooks after controlling for the individual characteristics of the economists in the sample. Specifically, this paper considers the quality of graduate school, the type of employment, the general area of dissertation research, and the gender of each individual in the cohort. Primary conclusions indicate that scholarly journals are the most important research outlet, and that book production is a complementary activity to output in scholarly journals. Moreover, publishing success is closely related to the quality of the graduate school attended as well as the type of employer. According to this research, women do not face a statistically significant disadvantage to publishing. Finally, the analysis documents that midway through the 15-year time span covered by this study, output begins to decline, reflecting the post-tenure drop-off in research productivity.     

超时加班与就业困难——1991-2005年中国经济就业弹性下降分析

本文通过考察和分析改革开放后劳动力市场特点和劳动者就业环境的变化，提出劳动法治的失效、就业者工作时间的不断延长，是导致20世纪90年代以后中国经济就业弹性持续下降的主要因素之一。非公经济中的超时加班现象，一方面使就业者的工作强度加大，受剥削程度越来越深，另一方面严重抵消了经济增长所创造的就业供给，从而造成就业人数增加缓慢，就业弹性不断下降。分析后不难发现，“高增长、低就业”的模式，并非是经济发展的正常现象。而是20世纪90年代以来“重资轻劳”政策的必然结果。     

The analysis and prediction of employment in the Russian federation by types of economic activity

This article is devoted to analyzing and forecasting the number of the employed in Russia by types of economic activity. The dependence of the main labor market indicators on macroeconomic factors and industrial production characteristics is considered. The impact of demographic trends is also taken into account. The research on the industry employment is carried out within the framework of a quarterly macroeconomic model QUMMIR.     

The Role of Teaching and Teacher Training in the Hiring and Promotion of Ph.D. Economists

Surveys suggest that a majority of graduate students seek academic positions after completing their degree. We survey groups involved in the job market to determine the roles of teaching and research in hiring and the subsequent success of new faculty. We find that while characteristics that signal research potential are highly valued by both graduate directors and department chairs, there are significant discrepancies in the extent that teaching is valued in the hiring process across institution types. Furthermore, although new faculty devote half of their time to teaching, only half of them agree that graduate school prepared them to teach.     

The market perception of banking industry risk: A multifactor analysis

This paper analyzes the market perception of the risk of the banking industry during the 1969–89 period by using two methodologies simultaneously. The market factor and economic and industry factors (proxied by interest rate variables) of a multifactor regression model are examined in relation to industry, intra-industry, and bank-specific factors extracted using principal component analysis of bank holding company stock returns. The results provide additional insights into the market perception of bank risk beyond those provided by the market and interest rate risk models of previous studies.Work on this paper was undertaken while the authors were at Temple University.     

Putting trained labour power to work: the dilemma of education and employment

Demographic factors and educational changes are producing, in many less developed countries, a "pushdown effect" in which recent graduates are forced to take jobs that would earlier have been filled by those with less education. In Indonesia, for example, 1990 senior high school graduates will have to take jobs that were filled by junior high school graduates in 1980 as a result of increases in the supply of educated manpower. While the increase in employment positions in Indonesia is under 5%/year, the number of graduates from junior high school, senior high school, and universities is exceeding this increase. Each year, there is an excess of 2.60 junior high school graduates and 3.83 senior high school graduates/1000 labor force in terms of availability of the types of jobs filled by people with these educational qualifications in 1980. The pushdown effect has further resulted in a fall in the educational differential of income. Between 1976-86, earnings for employees with less than a primary school education quintupled while those for employees with college degrees did not even triple. The presence of large numbers of disillusioned, overqualified workers in the labor force is a potential source of social unrest and there is a need for serious attention to the changing relationship of job and educational status. Possible solutions to this discrepancy include: expansion of the economy; restructuring of economic workers; reorientation of the educational system to enhance the productivity of graduates; raising the status of employment in agriculture and rural small industry; and acceptance by the labor force that the pushdown effect is an inevitable stage of the development process.     

Output and employment changes in a “trade sensitive” sector: Adjustment in the U. S. footwear industry

Zusammenfassung Ver?nderungen von Produktion und Besch?ftigung in einem ?au\enhandelsempfindlichen? Sektor: Der Anpassungsproze\ in der Schuh-industrie der Vereinigten Staaten. — In diesem Aufsatz wurde die amerikanische Schuhindustrie untersucht und gezeigt, wie sie in der vergangenen Dekade unter der steigenden Importkonkurrenz gelitten hat. Produktion, Firmenzahl und Besch?fti-gung sind in diesem Industriezweig zurückgegangen, w?hrend die Importe einen immer h?heren Marktanteil erlangt haben. Quantifiziert werden dann einige m?gliche zukünftige Ver?nderungen dieser Industrie, indem verschiedene internationale ?ko-nomische Variable in ein dynamisches Modell für die Produktion und Besch?ftigung dieser Branche eingebaut werden. Mit dem Modell k?nnen verschiedene Szenarien bei alternativen Annahmen über die Handelspolitik und internationalen Variablen dargestellt werden. Die Sch?tzungen lassen vermuten, da\ die Schuhindustrie keiner gl?nzenden Zukunft entgegengeht. Sogar unter der Annahme von Staatseingriffen ist langfristig ein Rückgang von Produktion und Besch?ftigung zu erwarten. Die von der International Trade Commission vorgeschlagene Quoten- und Zollpolitik ist nur eine Zwischenl?sung, die das Anpassungsproblem lediglich vertagt, aber nicht direkt anpackt.

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Résumé Les changements en production et emploi dans un secteur ?sensitif au commerce extérieur?: L’ajustement dans l’industrie de la chaussure des Etats-Unis. — Dans cet article nous avons examiné la structure de l’industrie de la chaus-sure non-caoutchouc des Etats-Unis et démontré comment elle a souffert de la con-currence importatrice accroissante pendant la décade dernière. L’industrie s’est réduite concernant la production, le nombre des entreprises et l’emploi pendant que les importations ont gagné une part croissante du marché. Puis nous quantifions quelques changements possibles à l’avenir dans cette industrie en incorporant quel-ques variables économiques internationales dans un modèle dynamique de la pro-duction industrielle et d’emploi. A l’aide de ce modèle des différents scénarios qui incluent une politique commerciale alternative aussi bien que des changements projetés des variables internationales peuvent être dessinés. Nos estimations sug-gèrent que l’industrie de la chaussure n’aura pas un avenir brillant. Même avec l’intervention du gouvernement nous trouvons une réduction de la production industrielle et de l’emploi à long terme. La politique proposée de contingent-tarif de la Commission Internationale de Commerce n’est qu’une solution temporaire qui simplement remet le problème d’ajustement à plus tard au lieu de l’adresser directement.

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Resumen Cambios en el producto y en el empleo en un sector sensible al comercio: Ajustes en la industria del calzado de los EE.UU. — En este artículo hemos examinado la estructura de la industria del calzado de cuero de los EE.UU., mostrando como ha sido afectada por la creciente competencia de importatión en la reciente década. La industria ha declinado en términos de producto, número de firmas y empleados, mientras que las importaciones han capturado un porcentaje creciente del mercado. Se cuantifican entonces algunos posibles cambios futuros en la industria incorporando distintas variables economicas internationales en un modelo dinámico del producto industrial y el empleo. Usando el modelo se pueden hacer distintos escenarios incorporando políticas comerciales alternativas y cambios proyectados en las variables internacionales. Nuestras estimaciones sugieren que la industria del calzado no enfrentará un futuro brillante. Incluso con interventión del gobierno vislumbramos una declinatión de largo plazo en la productión industrial y el empleo. La propuesta política de cuotas y tarifas de la International Trade Commission es meramente una solutión temporal que simplemente pospone el problema de ajuste en vez de enfrentarlo directamente.

     

The Great Depression and the rise of female employment: A new hypothesis

The life-cycle labor supply of women born at the turn of the 20th century diverged sharply from previous cohorts. Although they had similar participation rates in early adulthood, younger cohorts were significantly more likely to work at middle age. This paper documents a link between these changing patterns of female labor supply and the Great Depression. We find that the onset of the Great Depression led to an increase in young women's employment in 1930 via an added-worker effect. Cohorts induced into the workforce in the early 1930s had significantly higher employment rates through the 1940s and 1950s of up to 3 percentage points, suggesting a permanent impact of the Great Depression on women's lifecycle labor supply.     

The effect of transitional employment on search duration: A selectivity approach

This paper presents an analysis of the impact of transitional employment (employment fully contained within a search spell) on search duration. Log-linear duration equations, which are derived from an accelerated time-life specification, are estimated separately for those who take and do not take a transitional job. Selectivity terms are included as additional regressors in the specification in order to control for the endogeneity of the decision to take a transitional job. The presence of right-censored search spells is controlled for and the standard errors are corrected to account for the inclusion of generated regressors. A searcher who takes a transitional job can expect to be searching for permanent employment almost eight months longer and has a substantially different escape pattern than a searcher who does not take a transitional job.The author has benefitted from discussions with and comments from many colleagues. Special thanks are extended to Insan Tunali for making his error-correction formulas available. Support from the Research Council of the College of Business Administration, Georgia State University, is gratefully acknowledged.     

Eastern Germany and the conflict between wage adjustment,investment, and employment: A numerical analysis

Eastern Germany and the Conflict between Wage Adjustment, Investment, and Employment: A Numerical Analysis. — In this paper, some light is shed on the dynamics of the adjustment process in eastern Germany by studying the linkages between the dynamics of wage adjustment, investment, and employment. An extended dynamic investment model, which includes adjustment costs for capital and revision costs for investment, is presented. This model is specified according to the east German economy and analyzed numerically by an optimization method based on direct collocation. Results are obtained for the time horizon of adjustment and for the implications of different wage strategies on the path of investment and employment.     

“入世”对温州民营企业的影响及对策

目前 ,下岗职工再就业问题已成为全社会关注的热点问题。本文以淄博市为例 ,对就业中存在的问题进行了分析 ,并针对这些问题提出了相应的对策建议。     

关于解决当前淄博市就业问题的分析与建议

目前,下岗职工再就业问题已成为全社会关注的热点问题.本文以淄博市为例,对就业中存在的问题进行了分析,并针对这些问题提出了相应的对策建议.