Promises in group decision making

We assess in the laboratory the effect of promises on group decision-making. The gift-exchange game provides the testing ground for our experiment. When the game is played between groups, inter-group cooperation and reciprocity represent a condition for increasing total earnings as a measure of social efficiency. Our findings show that promises have positive effect on aggregate payoffs and that effect is reinforced when a group member is randomly selected as proposer to set forth an effort/transfer level that other group members can approve or reject. Promises and proposers elicit social conformity leading groups to exhibit more desirable social behavior.     

Bounded interpersonal inferences and decision making

Summary. Individual decision making is based on predictions about other players' choices as well as on valuations of reactions to predictions. In this sense, a player has a prediction-decision criterion for decision making. We develop a theory of prediction-decision criteria, which enables us to capture new phenomena on individual decision making in games. The decision making situation is described in the epistemic logic GL of shallow depths. There, each player considers his and other players' decision making down to some shallow depths. It is a point of our theory to investigate inferential complexities of interpersonal introspections. In particular, we can discuss a minimal epistemic inferential structure for prediction-decision making. We will find parallel structures in decision making and prediction making, which is called an inner parallelism. The climax of the paper is the consideration of inner parallelisms of prediction-decision making. Received: August 31, 2000; revised version: April 9, 2001     

Participation, decision aggregation and internal information gathering in organizational decision making

This paper proposes a stylized theory that focuses on the determination of the structure of decision making within teams. This structure consists of two elements: the allocation of decisional power among the team members, and the degree of information acquisition on their quality. The suggested approach is applied in the special context of pairwise organizational choice for evaluating the performance of a class of decision rules, the value of participation in organizational decision making, the value of information on the quality of the available decision makers, and the efficiency loss associated with common restrictions on the design of the corporate's structure of decision making.     

PowerPlay: Exploring decision making behaviors in energy efficiency markets

Computer models are widely used to analyze decisions about energy efficiency improvements in the residential and commercial sectors. Few models exist that can actually be run interactively by decision makers to play out alternative future scenarios. None are available that interactively capture the dynamics, subtleties and complexities of interdependent decisions by utilities, households and firms in an ever-changing technological and economic environment.This paper presents the features and experiences of PowerPlay, a computer-facilitated game which fills that gap and does more: it is a game to be played by at least a dozen player groups who interact with each other, make deals (or break them), plan for the future and revise decisions. The computer model functions like a game board to trace actions and offer choices. The observed behaviors can be analyzed to advance understanding of investment strategies and consumer choices; to generate experimentally-based data on energy efficiency changes; and to provide the basis for analyses that can substantiate or complement historical, time-series driven specifications of energy models.     

The stability of decision making in committees: The one-core

We study the stability of decision making in committees. A policy proposal introduced by a committee member is either adopted or abandoned in favor of a new proposal after deliberations. If a proposal is abandoned, it is in spite of the committee member who introduced it, who does not cooperate in any effort to defeat it. Shenoy (1980) proposes the one-core as a solution concept for this game, and shows that this solution may be empty. We provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a stable policy under the majority rule. This result highlights a trade-off between the size of a committee, the number of competing policy options, and the existence of a stable outcome. Our findings imply a tension between political stability and the existence of a large number of competing interests in democracies.     

Armed conflicts and women's authority in intra-household decision making

This paper evaluates the extent to which armed conflicts alter women's intra-household decision making in 51 countries over the past three decades (1990–2018). Exploiting the variations both within and across districts in the timing of battles, we uncover adverse consequences of armed conflict on women's engagement in household decisions on both financial and non-financial aspects. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in the number of battles (equivalent to an increase of 5.1 battles) reduces the composite financial and non-financial decision indices of women by 2.32% and 1.34% relative to the sample averages. Breaking down the decision-making indices by looking at the underlying items, we further find that the declines in women's intra-household decision making come from reductions in all aspects of financial and non-financial domains.     

Predicting restaurant financial distress using decision tree and AdaBoosted decision tree models

The restaurant industry has been facing tough challenges because of the recent economic turmoil. Although different industries face different levels of competition and therefore the likelihood of financial distress can differ for firms in different industries, scant attention has been paid to predicting restaurant financial distress. The primary objective of this paper is to examine the key financial distress factors for publicly traded U.S. restaurants for the period from 1988 to 2010 using decision trees (DT) and AdaBoosted decision trees. The AdaBoosted DT model for the entire dataset revealed that financially distressed restaurants relied more heavily on debt; and showed lower rates of increase of assets, lower net profit margins, and lower current ratios than non-distressed restaurants. A larger proportion of debt in the capital structure ruined restaurants' financial structure and the inability to pay their drastically increased debt exposed restaurants to financial distress. Additionally, a lack of capital efficiency increased the possibility of financial distress. We recommend the use of the AdaBoosted DT model as an early warning system for restaurant distress prediction because the AdaBoosted DT model demonstrated the best prediction performance with the smallest error in overall and type I error rates. The results of two subset models for full-service and limited-service restaurants indicated that the segments had slightly different financial risk factors.     

Speed and quality of collective decision making: Imperfect information processing

This paper studies efficient programmed hierarchies as introduced by Radner [The organization of decentralized information processing, Econometrica 61(5) (1993) 1109-1146] in which agents cannot process information perfectly. A group of P identical managers has to make a choice between n alternatives. In order to learn which is the best option, the alternatives have to be compared. The evaluation of an alternative takes time and managers are only able to identify the better one of two alternatives with a positive probability. The skip-level reporting tree proposed by Radner is found to be efficient in terms of the dimensions decision cost, decision delay, and decision quality.     

Consumer decision making,E-commerce and perceived risks

This article studies how adoption and usage behaviour of the Internet and online shopping, respectively influence the preference to use electronic commerce to purchase different types of products. We empirically model the preference for electronic commerce when consumers have to buy different types of products and thus face different types of risks (Cox and Rich, 1964 Cox, D and Rich, S. 1964. Perceived risk and consumer decision making-the case of telephone survey. Journal of Marketing Research, 1: 32–9. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Unlike previous research, we find that consumers who have previously shopped online, display stronger preferences to buy products on the Internet irrespective of the perceived level of product-specific risks of online shopping. This article provides an interesting and novel insight into how both adoption and usage of electronic commerce impact on the attitude and risk perception of buying less predictable (more risky) products on the Internet.     

Exploring group decision making in a power-to-take experiment

Most studies that compare individual and group behavior neglect the in-group decision making process. This paper explores the decision making process within groups in a strategic setting: a two player power-to-take experiment. Discussions preceding group decisions are video taped and analyzed. We find the following: (1) no impact of the group setting as such on individual behavior; (2) heterogeneity of individual types; (3) perceptions of fairness are hardly discussed and are prone to the self-serving bias; (4) groups ignore the decision rule of other groups and typically view them as if they were single agents. (5) We also show that to explain group outcomes two factors have to be taken into account that are often neglected: the distribution of individual types over groups and the decision rules that groups use to arrive at their decision. JEL Classification A12 · C72 · C91 · C92     

Defining and classifying ecosystem services for decision making

The concept of ecosystems services has become an important model for linking the functioning of ecosystems to human welfare. Understanding this link is critical for a wide-range of decision-making contexts. While there have been several attempts to come up with a classification scheme for ecosystem services, there has not been an agreed upon, meaningful and consistent definition for ecosystem services. In this paper we offer a definition of ecosystem services that is likely to be operational for ecosystem service research and several classification schemes. We argue that any attempt at classifying ecosystem services should be based on both the characteristics of the ecosystems of interest and a decision context for which the concept of ecosystem services is being mobilized. Because of this there is not one classification scheme that will be adequate for the many contexts in which ecosystem service research may be utilized. We discuss several examples of how classification schemes will be a function of both ecosystem and ecosystem service characteristics and the decision-making context.     

Financial distress,financial constraint and investment decision: Evidence from Brazil

This paper analyses the presence of financial constraint in the investment decisions of 367 Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using a Bayesian econometric model with group-varying parameters. The motivation for this paper is the use of clustering techniques to group firms in a totally endogenous form. In order to classify the firms we used a hybrid clustering method, that is, hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering techniques jointly. To estimate the parameters a Bayesian approach was considered. Prior distributions were assumed for the parameters, classifying the model in random or fixed effects. Ordinate predictive density criterion was used to select the model providing a better prediction. We tested thirty models and the better prediction considers the presence of 2 groups in the sample, assuming the fixed effect model with a Student t distribution with 20 degrees of freedom for the error. The results indicate robustness in the identification of financial constraint when the firms are classified by the clustering techniques.     

Reciprocity: theory and facts

The importance of reciprocity is not new in economics. Contractual market exchanges and long-run interactions are both situations based on self-interested reciprocal behaviour. However, reciprocity is not only a behaviour but also a motive that sometimes appears to be inconsistent with self-interest. This fact produces a tension between those who try to explain reciprocal behaviour within the standard framework and those who aim at enlarging it with the introduction of additional behavioural principles. This special issue collects a selection of papers presented at the International Conference “Reciprocity. Theory and facts” were the two perspectives were compared and discussed. In this Introduction note we provide first a broad view of the role of reciprocity in economics and then a quick introduction to each of the contributions enclosed in this special issue.     

Antecedents of creative decision making in organizational crisis: A team-based simulation

Although it has been claimed that the devastation and complexities that characterize an organizational crisis may be addressed most effectively with creative solutions, theoretical and empirical research examining this challenge is scarce. We developed a theoretical model concerning creative decision making during organizational crisis for crisis management teams. To test this theory, we collected data from 191 individuals in 37 teams who participated in multi-hour, multi-phased organizational crisis simulations in the United States and Canada. Using regression analysis, we found that crisis management teams generated a creative decision when they were familiar with solutions, trusted their team members, and had creative intentions. This study supports organizational efforts to leverage education, training and accountability to reinforce creativity in crisis decision making.     

Environmental uncertainty,foresight and strategic decision making: An integrated study

This paper explores how the foresight practices and techniques that might be used for coping with environmental uncertainty are coordinated throughout large corporations and how their results are used for supporting strategic decision making. Based on an in-depth and multiple study of several companies, we analyse the main characteristics of environmental uncertainty - complexity and dynamism - that shape companies’ approaches to strategic foresight and uncertainty management. We explore the impact of growing complexity and dynamism on these approaches and the role of prediction and control in their design and implementation. We outline a conceptual framework for strategic foresight activities - and their relationships with decision making under uncertainty - as a planned learning process about the future which enables managers not to know opportunities and threats in advance, but to detect them more promptly and to react more effectively as soon as they start emerging.     

基层财政解困:一个财政体制变迁的分析框架

基层财政困难已影响到部分地方经济发展与社会稳定,是迫切需要解决的问题.基层财政陷入困境的最直接根源是财政体制不规范,事权与财权高度不对称.解困的根本出路在于规范政府间财政关系,进行财政体制创新.但财政体制变迁不能局限于边际微调,须考虑政府财政级次问题.本文提出推行"省管县"体制与撤消乡镇级政府两项改革,将政府层级由五级简化为三级,对应形成三级财政.并以这三级财政为架构,重新设计财政体制,合理配置政府间事权财权,以推动基层财政彻底解困.     

A decision support system for financial and social investment

This article proposes a decision-making model that assesses the different aspects associated to Social Venture Capital (SVC) investment decisions. SVC companies buy shares of investee companies, valued according to financial and social aspects. The proposed model includes three main factors: the previous experience with the company (the past); its financial information and intangible assets (the present); and the proposed project, considering financial and social criteria (the future). The model has 26 criteria and 160 indicators, prioritized by means of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). AHP simplifies a complex problem using a hierarchical analysis methodology, which enables subjective judgements among different criteria. The model has been tested in a given SVC company. Its development is explained in this article.