Bounded interpersonal inferences and decision making

Summary. Individual decision making is based on predictions about other players' choices as well as on valuations of reactions to predictions. In this sense, a player has a prediction-decision criterion for decision making. We develop a theory of prediction-decision criteria, which enables us to capture new phenomena on individual decision making in games. The decision making situation is described in the epistemic logic GL of shallow depths. There, each player considers his and other players' decision making down to some shallow depths. It is a point of our theory to investigate inferential complexities of interpersonal introspections. In particular, we can discuss a minimal epistemic inferential structure for prediction-decision making. We will find parallel structures in decision making and prediction making, which is called an inner parallelism. The climax of the paper is the consideration of inner parallelisms of prediction-decision making. Received: August 31, 2000; revised version: April 9, 2001     

PowerPlay: Exploring decision making behaviors in energy efficiency markets

Computer models are widely used to analyze decisions about energy efficiency improvements in the residential and commercial sectors. Few models exist that can actually be run interactively by decision makers to play out alternative future scenarios. None are available that interactively capture the dynamics, subtleties and complexities of interdependent decisions by utilities, households and firms in an ever-changing technological and economic environment.This paper presents the features and experiences of PowerPlay, a computer-facilitated game which fills that gap and does more: it is a game to be played by at least a dozen player groups who interact with each other, make deals (or break them), plan for the future and revise decisions. The computer model functions like a game board to trace actions and offer choices. The observed behaviors can be analyzed to advance understanding of investment strategies and consumer choices; to generate experimentally-based data on energy efficiency changes; and to provide the basis for analyses that can substantiate or complement historical, time-series driven specifications of energy models.     

The stability of decision making in committees: The one-core

We study the stability of decision making in committees. A policy proposal introduced by a committee member is either adopted or abandoned in favor of a new proposal after deliberations. If a proposal is abandoned, it is in spite of the committee member who introduced it, who does not cooperate in any effort to defeat it. Shenoy (1980) proposes the one-core as a solution concept for this game, and shows that this solution may be empty. We provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a stable policy under the majority rule. This result highlights a trade-off between the size of a committee, the number of competing policy options, and the existence of a stable outcome. Our findings imply a tension between political stability and the existence of a large number of competing interests in democracies.     

Defining and classifying ecosystem services for decision making

The concept of ecosystems services has become an important model for linking the functioning of ecosystems to human welfare. Understanding this link is critical for a wide-range of decision-making contexts. While there have been several attempts to come up with a classification scheme for ecosystem services, there has not been an agreed upon, meaningful and consistent definition for ecosystem services. In this paper we offer a definition of ecosystem services that is likely to be operational for ecosystem service research and several classification schemes. We argue that any attempt at classifying ecosystem services should be based on both the characteristics of the ecosystems of interest and a decision context for which the concept of ecosystem services is being mobilized. Because of this there is not one classification scheme that will be adequate for the many contexts in which ecosystem service research may be utilized. We discuss several examples of how classification schemes will be a function of both ecosystem and ecosystem service characteristics and the decision-making context.     

Exploring group decision making in a power-to-take experiment

Most studies that compare individual and group behavior neglect the in-group decision making process. This paper explores the decision making process within groups in a strategic setting: a two player power-to-take experiment. Discussions preceding group decisions are video taped and analyzed. We find the following: (1) no impact of the group setting as such on individual behavior; (2) heterogeneity of individual types; (3) perceptions of fairness are hardly discussed and are prone to the self-serving bias; (4) groups ignore the decision rule of other groups and typically view them as if they were single agents. (5) We also show that to explain group outcomes two factors have to be taken into account that are often neglected: the distribution of individual types over groups and the decision rules that groups use to arrive at their decision. JEL Classification A12 · C72 · C91 · C92     

Financial distress,financial constraint and investment decision: Evidence from Brazil

This paper analyses the presence of financial constraint in the investment decisions of 367 Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using a Bayesian econometric model with group-varying parameters. The motivation for this paper is the use of clustering techniques to group firms in a totally endogenous form. In order to classify the firms we used a hybrid clustering method, that is, hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering techniques jointly. To estimate the parameters a Bayesian approach was considered. Prior distributions were assumed for the parameters, classifying the model in random or fixed effects. Ordinate predictive density criterion was used to select the model providing a better prediction. We tested thirty models and the better prediction considers the presence of 2 groups in the sample, assuming the fixed effect model with a Student t distribution with 20 degrees of freedom for the error. The results indicate robustness in the identification of financial constraint when the firms are classified by the clustering techniques.     

Reciprocity: theory and facts

The importance of reciprocity is not new in economics. Contractual market exchanges and long-run interactions are both situations based on self-interested reciprocal behaviour. However, reciprocity is not only a behaviour but also a motive that sometimes appears to be inconsistent with self-interest. This fact produces a tension between those who try to explain reciprocal behaviour within the standard framework and those who aim at enlarging it with the introduction of additional behavioural principles. This special issue collects a selection of papers presented at the International Conference “Reciprocity. Theory and facts” were the two perspectives were compared and discussed. In this Introduction note we provide first a broad view of the role of reciprocity in economics and then a quick introduction to each of the contributions enclosed in this special issue.     

Antecedents of creative decision making in organizational crisis: A team-based simulation

Although it has been claimed that the devastation and complexities that characterize an organizational crisis may be addressed most effectively with creative solutions, theoretical and empirical research examining this challenge is scarce. We developed a theoretical model concerning creative decision making during organizational crisis for crisis management teams. To test this theory, we collected data from 191 individuals in 37 teams who participated in multi-hour, multi-phased organizational crisis simulations in the United States and Canada. Using regression analysis, we found that crisis management teams generated a creative decision when they were familiar with solutions, trusted their team members, and had creative intentions. This study supports organizational efforts to leverage education, training and accountability to reinforce creativity in crisis decision making.     

基层财政解困:一个财政体制变迁的分析框架

基层财政困难已影响到部分地方经济发展与社会稳定,是迫切需要解决的问题.基层财政陷入困境的最直接根源是财政体制不规范,事权与财权高度不对称.解困的根本出路在于规范政府间财政关系,进行财政体制创新.但财政体制变迁不能局限于边际微调,须考虑政府财政级次问题.本文提出推行"省管县"体制与撤消乡镇级政府两项改革,将政府层级由五级简化为三级,对应形成三级财政.并以这三级财政为架构,重新设计财政体制,合理配置政府间事权财权,以推动基层财政彻底解困.     

A decision support system for financial and social investment

This article proposes a decision-making model that assesses the different aspects associated to Social Venture Capital (SVC) investment decisions. SVC companies buy shares of investee companies, valued according to financial and social aspects. The proposed model includes three main factors: the previous experience with the company (the past); its financial information and intangible assets (the present); and the proposed project, considering financial and social criteria (the future). The model has 26 criteria and 160 indicators, prioritized by means of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). AHP simplifies a complex problem using a hierarchical analysis methodology, which enables subjective judgements among different criteria. The model has been tested in a given SVC company. Its development is explained in this article.     

事业单位财务管理问题及对策分析

事业单位的财务管理是根据国家有关法律、法规、政策、方针和财务制度等的规定,统筹管理事业单位财务,对事业单位资金计划、管理和使用。规范事业单位财务管理,对财务活动进行全过程监督和控制,关系到事业单位各项经济活动的顺利进行,是实现社会主义市场经济的重要保障。     

Some aspects of decision making in the UK manufacturing sector

The links between price, output, labour services, inventories, backlog and expected values of input prices and income are considered in an adjustment framework. A five equation model is estimated by Ordinary Least Squares and a Two Step approximation to Generalized Least Squares using data from the U.K. manufacturing sector with expected values assumed to be generated by ARIMA processes. Simulation is used to discuss the model, and estimation method, while the stability of the links between the variables is considered.     

Early decision and financial aid competition among need-blind colleges and universities

This paper presents a stylized theoretical model of competition among need-blind colleges and universities that implement early decision admissions. Under need-blind admissions, an applicant's financial aid status cannot affect their likelihood of admission. In the model, a need-blind school can use early decision admissions as a screening mechanism to indirectly identify a student's ability-to-pay, while superficially maintaining a need-blind policy. As a result, in equilibrium, non-financial aid students are more likely to be admitted than financial aid students of comparable quality.     

Charter school quality and parental decision making with school choice

Charter schools have become a very popular instrument for reforming public schools, because they expand choices, facilitate local innovation, and provide incentives for the regular public schools while remaining under public control. Despite their conceptual appeal, analysis has been hindered by the selective nature of their student populations. This paper investigates the quality of charter schools in Texas in terms of mathematics and reading achievement and finds that average school quality in the charter sector is not significantly different from that in regular public schools after an initial start-up period but that there is considerable heterogeneity. Perhaps more important for policy, however, is the finding that the parental decision to exit a charter school is significantly related to school quality. The magnitude of this relationship is substantially larger than the relationship between the probability of exit and quality in the regular public school sector and consistent with the notion that the introduction of charter schools substantially reduces the transactions costs of switching schools.     

Constitutional choice in ancient Athens: the evolution of the frequency of decision making

Contrary to modern representative democracies where elections tend to take place years apart, in the direct democracy of ancient Athens the assembly of the citizens met to decide policy up to forty times per year. The paper explores a model of constitutional choice where self-interested citizens decide how long to wait until they vote by maximising the net gain from an uncertain voting outcome. It is found that the frequency of voting increases unambiguously when the probability of being a member of the winning majority increases, and decreases with the loss from being a member of the losing minority and the resource cost of the vote. Under some plausible conditions, the frequency also rises with increases in the utility gain from the vote, the discount rate, and the required majority to pass a policy motion. It is argued that those conditions were met in Athens.     

日本金融体制症结及对我国的启示

日本从满目疮痍的战败国崛起为世界经济强国,其经济发展的骄人业绩令世人瞩目,金融体制在其中所起的推波助澜作用功不可没。而上世纪80年代以来,尤其是进入90年代后,日本泡沫经济崩溃,金融危机全面爆发,经济陷入了难以自拔的长期萧条之中。90年代日本的金融困境固然是各种内外因素综合作用的结果,但日本金融体制中存在的结构性缺陷,与变化了的经济环境不相适应,是导致这场危机发生以及之后长达十年经济萧条的根本原因。金融危机的一般表象1.金融机构不良资产问题严重。许多日本银行在泡沫经济膨胀期滥放贷款,以致泡沫经济崩溃后,背上了沉重…     

Review and comments: Jerry R. Green and Jean-Jacques Laffont,Incentives in public decision making

This paper develops a procedure for testing the signalling hypothesis as advanced by Spence et al. The approach used is to examine directly the question of whether employers use education for purely informational purposes in their hiring decisions. An application of the method to a recruitment by the Swedish auto manufacturer Volvo is presented.