历史沉淀成本与经济转型的路径依赖及其超越

本文旨在突破新古典理性选择的经济转型研究方法,再次阐述计划经济体制下历史沉淀成本对经济转型的锁定效应。由新古典经济理论和规范决策理论可知,以前投资的历史或沉淀成本已经支付过了,因其不构成机会成本,所以不应该影响当前或未来的经济转型决策。然而,在经济转型时期,决策者并不能够根据经济转型的预期边际收益和边际成本进行理性决策,不仅需要考虑因资产专用性,以及由此产生的交易成本的阻碍影响,还需要考虑过去发生的历史沉淀成本的阻碍影响。因此,为了加快计划经济体制向市场经济体制转型的进程,制度或政策制定的基本原则应着眼于历史沉淀成本管理,从而切断路径依赖。     

The long term impact of economic development in developed countries on developing countries since 1820

The linkages between the economic development of developed and developing countries are analyzed historically. The analysis is divided into epochs, distinguished by global trade regimes and by common characteristics of long term economic growth. The break throughs in long distance transport technology which occured during the industrial revolution created a global economy in which the rythm of economic activity in developing economies became linked to that of developed economies. The major transmission mechanisms were international trade, international migration and international capital flows. Exports were the main engine of growth in developing countries. But the effects of export expansion varied across countries. The speed of transmission of the industrial revolution to developing countries depended on their institutional readiness; countries with most developed capitalist institutions in factor markets were the first to develop. The extent of diffusion of the benefits of growth from export expansion within developing countries also depended on the nature of their institutions, both economic and political. Finally, policies with respect to international trade, investment and agriculture were also critical to the speed and diffusion of economic development.The research underlying this paper is the result of a twentyfive year collaboration with Professor Cynthia Taft Morris. She is indebted to the World Bank for financing the research in this paper as part of the background studies for the World Development Report 1991. She is also indebted to Sherman Robinson for his comments.     

经济增长与中拉贸易合作

近年来，中国和拉关地区的贸易额迅速增长。本文介绍了中拉贸易现状及贸易基础，重点对经济增长和中拉贸易合作之间的关系进行了分析。     

国际经济形势新变化对我国出口贸易的影响与应对措施

2007年下半年以来,世界宏观经济形势发生了明显变化,我国作为贸易大国出现了出口额大幅减少、失业人数增加等问题,造成了企业资产缩水、经营危机等困难。我国出口贸易的发展、贸易出口的目的地、出口商品的结构、出口贸易环境都受到了很大的影响。本文通过分析国际经济形势变化对我国出口贸易的影响,提出一些应对措施。     

Quality heterogeneity and global economic growth

This paper develops a fully endogenous, variety-expansion growth model with firm-specific quality heterogeneity, limit pricing, and an endogenous distribution of markups. Firms with high-quality products engage in exporting, firms with intermediate-quality products serve the domestic market, and inefficient firms with low-quality products exit the market. Trade liberalization, measured by a reduction in trade costs or a decline in foreign market entry costs, generates a reallocation of resources from low-quality to high-quality products and exit of inefficient firms. However, it has ambiguous effects on the average global quality level, long-run growth, and welfare. An increase in the rate of population growth or in the intensity of trade-related knowledge spillovers accelerates economic growth. The laissez-faire equilibrium is inefficient, and this leaves room for welfare-improving government intervention.     

Local variety and innovation performance in the EU textile and clothing industry

ABSTRACT

A large body of the literature showed that related variety at local level is more relevant than unrelated variety for explaining the innovation performance of firms. Knowledge relatedness is usually measured by considering activities within the same industry (i.e. the same two-digit code) while activities in different industries are associated with unrelated variety. This approach is challenged by the increasing relevance of transversal technologies, i.e. technologies that are developed and applied in rather different sectors. As a result, between industry variety (i.e. unrelated variety) is expected to be more important than within industry variety (i.e. related variety). We test this hypothesis by examining the innovation activities of firms in the textile and clothing industry. The innovation model of these firms is characterized by low investment in R&D, little capabilities for autonomous innovation and dependence from knowledge suppliers belonging to different sectors. The empirical analysis, carried out over the 1996–2014 period at the EU NUTS2 level, shows that between industry variety has a greater impact than within industry variety for the innovative performance of firms.     

中国经济改革:背景、机制与挑战

经过三十余年的经济改革,中国的经济取得了巨大的进步,中国这条巨龙也正在逐渐回归到她在世界经济中应有的位置。这种经济改革是如何成功的?本文认为,承接于特定的历史经济背景,中国经济中三类主要的行为主体(中央、地方、民众)根据自身的条件进行了事实上的互动式的协调分工,各自对既有的约束条件进行突破,并在互动演进的发展过程中逐步建立了新的规则,这些规则所确立的激励与约束极大地调动了各参与主体的积极性,实现了从事必躬亲到各司其职的职能转换。正是在这些过程中,中国经济逐渐得到发展并获得前所未有的成就。但我们同时强调,在经济改革的过程中,也必须认清体制的不足,积极应对新的挑战。     

The role of the financial sector in economic development: the Malaysian case

In this paper, we empirically examine the finance-economic development relations for the case of Malaysia. Using a battery of time series econometric techniques, we document robust evidence suggesting favorable output effects of financial market development. Likewise, there are consistent results showing the adverse real effects of financial volatility. The results of the development of financial intermediaries, however, are fragile. Moreover, the development of the financial markets hinges crucially on macro-economic performance and financial stability of the country. However, the process of financial market development is likely to be accompanied by financial volatility, leaving Malaysia with the trade-off between financial development and financial volatility. Lastly, we obtain limited evidence indicating the complementarity between financial market and banking sector developments.

Educational choice, endogenous inequality and economic development

This paper investigates the mechanics through which wealth may, in the long run, trickle down from the rich to the poor. In the presence of indivisibilities in investment of human capital and impossibility of borrowing money, investment in education is financed through an intergenerational transfer. In an OLG model where aggregate production requires capital and both skilled and unskilled labor, it is shown that the long run equilibrium outcome depends on the values of few key parameters. A complete characterization of the steady state is provided. Under some configurations of the parameter values a unique invariant equilibrium exists where inequality vanishes asymptotically. Under others, multiple equilibria exist and the equilibrium outcome crucially depends on the initial conditions of the system. These equilibria are characterized by a negative relationship between inequality and economic development.     

Innovation and economic performance in services: a firm-level analysis

This paper explores the two-way relationship between innovationand economic performance in services using a longitudinal firm-leveldataset which matches data from the second Community InnovationSurvey, CIS II (1993–95), against a set of economic variablesprovided by the System of Enterprise Accounts (1993–98).The results presented show that innovation is positively affectedby past economic performance and that innovation activities(especially investments in ICTs) have a positive impact on bothgrowth and productivity. Furthermore, productivity and innovationact as a self-reinforcing mechanism, which further boosts economicperformance. These findings provide empirical support for theendogenous nature of innovation in services and the presencein this sector of competition models and selection mechanismsbased on innovation.     

Infrastructural change and secular economic development

Long-term economic development is determined by changes to the infrastructure, especially material and non-material infrastructural networks that link agents in different locations. The infrastructure consists of the slowly changing, collective arena that supports production, exchange, and consumption, such as the built environment, transport networks, and institutions. In the short run the infrastructure can be regarded as fixed. Changes to the infrastructure are under normal conditions small enough to be disregarded by producers and consumers. With the creation of a critical link of a network, there will however be a revolutionary restructuring of the arena. Critical links are here defined as additions to infrastructural networks that create opportunities for new information and transport flows between previously unconnected regions. Such a revolutionary restructuring of infrastructural networks has been called a logistical revolution. Certain institutional pre-conditions are necessary for a logistical revolution, while the creation of a critical link is both a necessary and a sufficient condition. This paper discusses the three logistical revolutions that occurred in the 13th century, around 1600, and in the 19th century, which each had crucial similarities with the current “information revolution.”     

Agriculture and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia

This paper is a comparative study of the role of agriculturein economic development in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Popularnotions of economic duality and agricultural squeeze in sub-SaharanAfrica are re-examined, and new explanations in terms of agrarianstructures and resource availabilities are put forward to accountfor the apparent economic duality in that continent. Comparisonwith surplus labour economies of Asia highlights the constraintsposed by the prevailing agrarian structures for capital accumulationand industrialisation in post-colonial sub-Saharan Africa. Policyconclusions from this new perspective are contrasted with theconventional policies focusing on price reform and market liberalisation.     

Real exchange rate levels and economic development: theoretical analysis and econometric evidence

According to the development approach to exchange rates, competitivecurrencies have been a key factor in most East and SoutheastAsian successful growth strategies. There is also today an importantempirical literature that relates overvaluations to low percapita growth rates. While the econometric literature on thisissue is relatively rich, theoretical analysis of channels throughwhich real exchange rate levels could affect economic developmentare very scarce. This paper intends to contribute to the debateby bringing more theoretical elements and providing new econometricevidence to the connections between real exchange rate levelsand development.     

利润最大化原则与经济可持续发展——一个经济学悖论

利润最大化原则与经济可持续发展目标是相背离的,主要表现在以下四个方面：第一,利润最大化原则导致弱成本约束,成本约束服从并服务于利润最大化目标,其有身只具有工具价值。第二、利润最大化原则引致四种类型的经济扩张,即规模经济扩张、范围经济扩张、地域经济扩张以及经济帝国主义。第三,利润最大化原则纵容个体非理性,致使整个社会普遍漠视或回避社会整体理性的缺失,第四,利润最大化原则侵蚀全球整体主义价值观,妨碍人类在处理与应对全球危机时进行真诚的合作。     

Frontiers and sustainable economic development

Exploiting new resource “frontiers,” such as agricultural land and mineral reserves, is a fundamental feature of economic development in poor economies. Yet frontier-based development is symptomatic of a pattern of economy-wide resource exploitation in developing economies that: (a) generates little additional economic rents, and (b) what rents are generated are not being reinvested in other sectors. Such development is inherently unsustainable. The following paper explains this phenomenon, and provides evidence that long-run expansion of agricultural land and oil and natural gas proved reserves across poor economies is associated with lower levels of real income per capita. The paper proposes a frontier expansion hypothesis to explain why the structural economic dependence of these economies on frontier land expansion and resource exploitation is not conducive to sustained long-run growth. The key to sustainable economic development in poor economies will be improving the economic integration between frontier and other sectors of the economy, targeting policies to improved resource management in frontier areas and overcoming problems of corruption and rent-seeking in resource sectors.      

经济制度安排、国际贸易与经济增长影响机理的经验研究

本文分析了经济制度安排和贸易流量之间的相互关系及其对该国经济增长以及影响经济增长的其他因素的影响。在九个经济制度安排变量中对一国贸易流量影响作用最大的经济制度安排变量是该国的贸易政策,对一国高技术产品出口影响最大的经济制度安排变量是该国的产权保护程度。从对影响经济增长的渠道分析发现,在所有的经济制度安排变量中,一国产权的保护程度对该国经济增长的影响作用最大;同时产权保护的程度和政府干预对技术进步和人力资本的影响最为显著。     

风电场运行经济性综合评价方法

由于风力发电行业本身的特点和风电场运行管理的特殊性，任何单一的评价指标都难以对风电场运行经济性进行全面、完整、综合、客观的反映。本文采用层次分析法提出了风电场运行经济性综合评价方法。运用这种方法可以对风电场的发电情况、无功耗用情况、运行费用及人员效率情况等几个风电场运行经济性评价应考查的主要方面进行综合评价。     

云南省七条经济走廊发展现状分析

从整体上说,云南省中心地带经济发展以昆明市和安宁市为主,而云南省其他地区没有出现能明显带动周边经济发展的县市。云南省七条经济走廊所经过的县市,是云南省经济发展的重要地区,GDP、人均GDP、GDP增长率都高于云南省平均水平,但与其他县市相比,其发展差距维持在相对稳定的状态下。云南省要形成七条经济走廊带动云南省经济发展的局面,凸显七条经济走廊的发展优势,需要政策的大力扶持,以及对沿线产业的布局进行进一步研究规划。     

Assessing the relationship between economic and ecological performance: Distinguishing system levels and the role of innovation

In this article we critically discuss the different perspectives that are currently in use for assessing the relationship between ecological and economic performance. Based on a review of the literature we propose that research up till now has made use of four distinct system boundaries: the firm, markets, production and consumption systems, and economic systems. Making these boundaries explicit is helpful in interpreting the mixed results that have been obtained. We describe the consequences of the choice for each of these system boundaries: and look at implications for innovation. We also argue that the production and consumption system boundary offers potential for further advances in the field and deserves more attention in future research.