退耕还林：成本有效性、结构调整效应与经济可持续性——基于西部三省农户调查的实证分析

退耕还林工程是一项规模宏大的生态工程，其经济效率、预期效果和可持续性是全社会广为关注的问题。本使用中国科学院农业政策研究中心2003年对西部三省(陕西、甘肃和四川)退耕还林地区进行的农户抽样调查数据。对退耕还林工程的成本有效性和工程在经济上的可持续性进行了评估。我们发现退耕还林工程在实施过程中表现出较高的瞄准效率和较低的成本有效性(存在较大的成本节约空间)。计量分析发现工程在促进农民增收和结构调整方面作用甚微，因此其经济可持续性存在很大的疑问。另外，本还就退耕还林工程的操作程序、政策改善的方向等进行了讨论。     

退耕还林:成本有效性、结构调整效应与经济可持续性-基于西部三省农户调查的实证分析

退耕还林工程是一项规模宏大的生态工程,其经济效率、预期效果和可持续性是全社会广为关注的问题。本文使用中国科学院农业政策研究中心2003年对西部三省(陕西、甘肃和四川)退耕还林地区进行的农户抽样调查数据,对退耕还林工程的成本有效性和工程在经济上的可持续性进行了评估。我们发现退耕还林工程在实施过程中表现出较高的瞄准效率和较低的成本有效性(存在较大的成本节约空间)。计量分析发现工程在促进农民增收和结构调整方面作用甚微,因此其经济可持续性存在很大的疑问。另外,本文还就退耕还林工程的操作程序、政策改善的方向等进行了讨论。     

退耕还林:成本有效性、结构调整效应与经济可持续性-基于西部三省农户调查的实证分析

退耕还林工程是一项规模宏大的生态工程,其经济效率、预期效果和可持续性是全社会广为关注的问题.该文使用中国科学院农业政策研究中心2003年对西部三省(陕西、甘肃和四川)退耕还林地区进行的农户抽样调查数据,对退耕还林工程的成本有效性和工程在经济上的可持续性进行了评估.我们发现退耕还林工程在实施过程中表现出较高的瞄准效率和较低的成本有效性(存在较大的成本节约空间).计量分析发现工程在促进农民增收和结构调整方面作用甚微,因此其经济可持续性存在很大的疑问.另外,该文还就退耕还林工程的操作程序、政策改善的方向等进行了讨论.     

冀北山区生态建设对农户经济行为影响分析

冀北山区是我国环境脆弱与贫困并存的区域,在此地区进行的生态建设工程对区域内农户经济行为产生了一定的影响.本文以中日共建"21世纪中国首都圈环境保护示范基地"项目区为例,通过在项目区入户调查,分析生态建设对农户经济行为的影响,得出初步的结论:在生态建设项目区实施的退耕还林还草工程和禁牧等措施,限制了传统的种植业和畜牧业的发展,但是通过加大对项目区农户的技术扶持、资金扶持等,改变项目区的种植结构和养殖结构以及养殖方式,能够提高农户种植业和养殖业的收入;随着生态建设项目的实施,项目区农户的非农业就业收入、林业收入有所增加;生态补偿性收入在农户的收入中占据很大比重,生态补偿的可持续性是维护生态建设成果的重要因素之一.     

浅谈林业生态工程建设的重要性

从解放后，我国开始了林业生态工程建设，此工程的实施，为我国生态环境的改善、经济社会的发展做出了巨大的贡献。然而，从工程实施的过程与结果分析，目前，我国林业生态工程建设还存在诸多问题，面临着严峻的形势，为此，应加快实施林业生态工程步伐，进一步推动我国经济、生态、社会的可持续性发展。     

关于加快林业生态工程建设问题的探讨

从解放后，我国开始了林业生态工程建设，此工程的实施，为我国生态环境的改善、经济社会的发展做出了巨大的贡献。然而，从工程实施的过程与结果分析，目前，我国林业生态工程建设还存在诸多问题，面临着严峻的形势，为此，应加快实施林业生态工程步伐，进一步推动我国经济、生态、社会的可持续性发展。     

退耕还林:私人承包与政府规制

本文在一种委托—代理框架下研究了退耕还林工程在实施过程中所面临的激励不相容问题。文章首先探讨了退耕还林私人承包的社会理性。然后 ,文章给出了一个双重任务委托—代理模型 ,解释市场冲击如何会使农户的自利性经营行为偏离社会生态目标。接着 ,文章以陕西省退耕还林现状为研究背景对退耕还林工程实施中的激励不相容问题做出了进一步的经验分析。最后 ,文章从政府规制的角度提出了若干公共政策建议 ,以期提高退耕还林工程的实施效率。     

消费平滑、风险分担与完全保险——基于城镇家庭收支调查的实证研究

本文利用农户的面板数据评价京津风沙源治理工程的实施对当地农户收入的短期影响。分析了退耕还林强度、工程参与程度、村参与工程的时间对样本农户人均年收入的影响程度。分析结果表明:(1)工程参与对农户收入的影响为正向关系;(2)如果在村级早一年实施工程,则人均年收入提高17.37%;(3)实施退耕还林工程对消除贫困的影响尚考虑不足。本文利用农户的面板数据评价京津风沙源治理工程的实施对当地农户收入的短期影响。分析了退耕还林强度、工程参与程度、村参与工程的时间对样本农户人均年收入的影响程度。分析结果表明:(1)工程参与对农户收入的影响为正向关系;(2)如果在村级早一年实施工程,则人均年收入提高17.37%;(3)实施退耕还林工程对消除贫困的影响尚考虑不足。     

国内外退耕还林工程的研究与比较

退耕还林还草工程是一项涉及国家、地方、个人利益全面调整的综合系统工程,其政策实施的经济效率、预期效果和可持续性已日益成为全社会广为关注的问题。本文研究了国外退耕还林工程的背景、实施状况,并结合国内的退耕还林工程进行了对比研究,最终得出了国外退耕还林工程对我国退耕还林工程实施的启示。     

农户对农家店满意度的调查分析

基于农村消费市场的角度,以陕西省榆林,商洛、安康、宝鸡、渭南、汉中、咸阳等七个地区的农村政策实施区域为对象,运用因子分析法对陕西省＂万村千乡市场工程＂中的农家店的实施情况进行实证分析,结果发现商品情况是影响农户对农家店满意度的主要因素,同时农家店自身条件对其也有较大影响,通过对农家店的绩效进行分析评价,提出了改进的政策建议。     

环境扰动对创新活动中非知识协同行为和知识协同行为的影响

知识协同行为和非知识协同行为是知识管理领域新的研究主题,探讨其内在影响机理具有重要意义。通过数据调查,利用结构方程模型深入分析和探讨了环境扰动对知识协同行为和非知识协同行为的影响机理。实证研究表明：环境扰动正向影响非知识协同行为的产生,而环境扰动对知识协同行为的影响并不显著;良性非知识协同行为与企业创新绩效显著正相关,而恶性非知识协同行为对企业创新绩效有一定反向影响,知识协同行为对组织创新绩效有着显著正向影响;良性非知识协同行为对知识协同行为有较强的正向影响,而恶性非知识协同行为反向影响良性非知识协同行为的产生,这意味着恶性非知识协同行为可以通过良性非知识协同行为的中介效应对知识协同行为、创新绩效起反向作用。     

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY? ICT,INTANGIBLE INVESTMENT,AND BRITAIN'S PRODUCTIVITY RECORD REVISITED

Despite the apparent importance of the "knowledge economy," U.K. macroeconomic performance appears unaffected: investment rates are flat, and productivity has slowed. We investigate whether measurement issues might account for this puzzle. The standard National Accounts treatment of most spending on "knowledge" or "intangible" assets is as intermediate consumption. Thus they do not count as either GDP or investment. We ask how treating such spending as investment affects some key macro variables, namely, market sector gross value added (MGVA), business investment, capital and labor shares, growth in labor and total factor productivity (TFP), and capital deepening. We find: (a) MGVA was understated by about 6 percent in 1970 and 13 percent in 2004; (b) instead of the business investment/MGVA ratio falling since 1970 it has been rising; (c) instead of the labor share being flat since 1970 it has been falling; (d) growth in labor productivity and capital deepening has been understated and growth in TFP overstated; and (e) TFP growth has not slowed since 1990 but has been accelerating.     

Investment coordinates in the context of housing and stock markets nexus

This study examines the causal relationship between Chinese housing market (HM) and stock market (SM), using the bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test and subsample rolling-window estimation test. The results show that stock price (SP) has both positive and negative impacts on housing price (HP) in several sub-periods, and HP has the same effects on SP. The substitution effect drives their adverse consequences. Meanwhile, the positive effect indicates that SP has a wealth effect on HP, and HP has a credit-price effect on SP. Results provide information to Chinese financial institutions and individual investors for constructing investment portfolios within these asset markets.     

Do financial indicators have directional predictability for US home sales?

This study investigates the directional predictability of financial indicators for home sales across tranquil (1984–2005) and volatile (1972–1983 and 2006–2013) periods. We find that the mortgage rate has directional predictability for both existing and newly built home sales for up to 2005. The federal funds rate generally has directional predictability for existing (newly built) home sales in 1984–2005 (1972–1983). The term spread has directional predictability for home sales in 1972–1983 but generally not in the tranquil period of 1984–2005. Further, unlike mortgage and federal funds rates, the term spread has directional predictability for home sales in 2006–2013 and thus can help the Fed with useful information (assuming that this trend continues).     

Experimental economics under the microscope

Although experimental economics has been one of the most rapidlyexpanding fields in economics in recent years, it has so farattracted little sustained methodological discussion. This paperis intended as a step towards filling the gap, and providespreliminary answers to the following questions. (i) What aredistinctive characteristics of the experimental method in economics?(ii) To what extent are the results obtained in the laboratorytransferable to non-laboratory situations? (iii) What are thelimits of the experimental method in economics? (iv) Why isit that experimentation, which has been so successful in thenatural sciences, remains so controversial in the social sciences.     

金融危机后中国对外直接投资的海外利益研究

2000年以来,特别是金融危机以来,我国对境外的直接投资迅速增长,已成为中国海外利益的重要组成部分。本文对2008-2009年间我国对外直接投资和所包含的海外利益进行了分析,并依据对商务部《对外投资合作国别(地区)指南(2009版)》系列报告的文本解读,对中国非金融类对外直接投资的国家利益进行了分析。分析表明:(1)我国对外直接投资增长较快,但目前对国家利益贡献较少,且存在相当程度的脆弱性和高风险因素;(2)我国对外直接投资中的海外利益部分尚为弱小,且在目标产业分布上过于集中;(3)我国对外直接投资的损失率极高,外部因素明显。     

Choosing the two finalists

This paper studies a decision maker who for each choice set selects a subset of (at most) two alternatives. We axiomatize three types of procedures: (i) The top two: the decision maker has in mind an ordering and chooses the two maximal alternatives. (ii) The two extremes: the decision maker has in mind an ordering and chooses the maximal and the minimal alternatives. (iii) The top and the top: the decision maker has in mind two orderings and he chooses the maximal element from each.     

The limitations of negative incomes in the Gini coefficient decomposition by source

Lerman and Yitzhaki (1985) developed a decomposition of the Gini coefficient by income source that has been extensively used in the literature. This method has strong limitations in the presence of negative incomes, which were not discussed by the original authors and have been widely overlooked in successive studies. Through theoretical argumentation and practical examples, this article shows that, when using negative incomes, (1) the original decomposition formulae become inappropriate, (2) the marginal effects analysis may yield erroneous results and (3) the Pigou–Dalton ‘principle of transfers’ is not always met. This has critical implications for policy development, given that strategies based upon incorrect analyses could actually result in undesired greater income inequalities. The Gini source decomposition should be carefully applied by researchers and policymakers, especially in rural developing areas, where negative incomes are common due to financial losses from agricultural activities.     

Neoliberal growth models,monetary union and the Euro crisis. A post-Keynesian perspective

The paper offers an account of the Euro crisis based on post-Keynesian monetary theory and its typology of demand regimes. Neoliberalism has transformed social and financial relations in Europe but it has not given rise to a sustained profit-led growth process. Instead, growth has relied either on financial bubbles and rising household debt (‘debt-driven growth’) or on net exports (‘export-driven growth’). In Europe the financial crisis has been amplified by an economic policy architecture (the Stability and Growth Pact) that aimed at restricting the role of fiscal policy and monetary policy. This neoliberal economic policy regime in conjunction with the separation of monetary and fiscal spheres has turned the financial crisis of 2007 into a sovereign debt crisis in southern Europe.     

微型金融机构双重目标的冲突与治理:研究进展述评

微型金融机构要同时实现财务可持续(财务目标)与减缓贫困(社会目标)两大目标,然而,这两个目标间的冲突问题却长期困扰着其发展。本文系统整理了国内外有关微型金融机构双重目标冲突与治理领域的理论与实证文献,研究发现对微型金融机构双重目标是否冲突在理论和实证研究中均存在争议。伴随着微型金融商业化,目标偏离已成为双重目标冲突的新表现,但通过实施社会绩效管理,微型金融机构可以有效地降低双重目标间的冲突。虽然我国农村金融机构双重目标冲突问题已经显现,但相关研究并不多。因此,我国未来的研究应该集中在界定农村金融机构双重目标含义、构建评估体系、制定报告标准、探索双重目标约束下的可持续发展机制等方面。