An economic model of the market for negotiable certificates of deposit

The model developed in this paper explains both the quantity of CDs and the rate of interest on this instrument. We demonstrate that the behavior of the market for this financial asset is characterized by a dichotomy which has been induced by the Federal Reserve's administration of Regulation Q ceilings on offering rates on CDs. During several time spans since 1961, Regulation Q had no impact on the CD market and we hypothesize that the behavior of the CD market reflected market forces of both demand and supply. However during several periods, the Regulation Q ceiling effectively bound offering rates on CDs which induced a runoff in the quantity of CDs while the secondary CD rate was bid up to the level of market interest rates. In modeling the behavior of the CD market, equations are developed for both the outstanding quantity of CDs and the interest rate on CDs, each of which consists of different sets of variables for normal and runoff periods in order to explain this dichotomy.     

An examination of IPO secondary market returns

IPO stock prices increased approximately 2.3% on the first day of secondary market trading over the period 1993 through 2003. While these aftermarket returns are accentuated during 1999 and 2000, they persist after the bubble burst and even increase as a percentage of total underpricing. We explore several non-mutually exclusive hypotheses to explain our findings including price support, laddering, retail sentiment, and information asymmetry. Our results are most consistent with the view that higher secondary market returns accrue to IPOs with more information asymmetries possibly due to price and aggregate demand uncertainty.     

An analysis of proxy statement leadership structure justification disclosures

The Dodd-Frank Act’s qualitative disclosure requirements have prompted a call in the accounting literature for greater qualitative disclosure scrutiny. In this paper, we investigate the informativeness of qualitative leadership justification disclosures required by Section 972 of the Dodd-Frank Act. The disclosures are divided between justifying combining the CEO and Chairman of the Board (CEO Duality) and splitting these two positions (split structure). We use content analysis in our investigation. We discover that the two types of justifications are very different. The split structure disclosures tend to be ‘boiler plate’ and lack informativeness. In contrast, our tests suggest that CEO Duality justifications are informative. Our tests suggest that disclosures’ intensities in CEO Duality firms are positively associated with an increasing volume of information that supports CEO Duality as the more appropriate leadership structure choice. Additionally, our test results show that leadership disclosures change users risk perception, but only for CEO Duality firms. This suggests that investors believe in and are using the disclosures when making their investment decisions.     

An economic analysis of leasebacks

Leaseback decisions by firms involve the simultaneous sale of an asset and a lease agreement with the new owner. Examination of 64 leaseback decisions made by firms during 1979–1987 reveals a significant negative announcement effect. We present a theoretical framework in which all firms prefer to leaseback when there is symmetric information. When there is asymmetry of information between the manager and the market, however, firms with favorable prospects prefer to own the asset. Firms with poor prospects choose to leaseback and capture the associated depreciation tax shield through the sale. Our empirical results indicate that, besides the significant negative announcement effect, firms proposing a leaseback earn negative returns in the three months prior to the announcement. We monitor the performance of these firms for five years after the leaseback decision and compare it to five years before the announcement. There is a significant drop in operating performance as indicated by several key variables such as operating earnings before depreciation and pretax earnings. This is consistent with the hypothesis that firms choose to leaseback when faced with unfavorable future prospects. I would like to thank S.P. Kothari, Cheng-few Lee, Scott Linn, Mike Rozeff, Ramasastry Ambarisha, and an anonymous referee for their comments and suggestions. The usual disclaimer applies.     

贫困经济学研究

贫困现象的存在是一个无法回避和难以消除的客观现实。贫困形成的原因是十分复杂的，既有人文资源的又有自然环境的，既有历史的又有现实的，．．，常常是几种原因交错，需要“外力”援助。这种“外力”即来自于政府－扶持贫困是政府的天职。     

股票市场与经济增长为何异动

作为国民经济晴雨表的股票市场与我国经济增长之间似乎关联并不大,这种股市走势与经济走势异动的原因何在     

证券市场开放的要害所在

关于证券市场有些朋友盼望证券市场早日开放,盼望外国券商早日到来.其心情之迫切,犹如盼望亲人解放军.视股市开放为云开日出,视股市开放为家家都把红旗挂.但开放后到底会出现什么情况,现在无人可以预料.     

中国财产保险市场分析

中国自1980年恢复国内财产保险业务以来,保费收入以年均25.3%的速度增长,分析中国财产保险市场状况,对完善我国财产市场,有着重要意义。目前我国财产保险市场在发育过程中还面临着较多的矛盾,应从财产保险市场主体、市场结构、产品体系、财产保险市场的空间布局、财产保险市场开放模式等多角度、多方面着手,完善我国财产保险市场体系。     

Endogenous market statistics and security pricing:: An empirical investigation

This study examines empirically the degree to which the history of daytime and overnight price changes and order flow affects estimates of traders' beliefs about future security price changes. Estimates indicate that forecasts of the permanent component of price changes occurring after the open of trading are significantly related to past price changes and order flow; but the same is not generally true for price changes occurring after the close. These results are consistent with models of technical analysis, and models in which the process of trading facilitates price discovery. The evidence also suggests that private information is an important determinant of price movements.     

An international analysis of the economic cost for countries located in crisis zones

We study the impact on a country’s economy of sharing a direct land border with a country experiencing conflict. Through analyzing sixty-three major episodes of regional instability during the period between 1990 and 2016 by using panel data methods applied to unrestricted error correction model, the opportunity cost of such regional conflict is examined. The resulting estimates of GDP loss are most profound for countries in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. Regional turmoil resulting from conflict has been found to have significantly reduced GDP growth in Angola, China, Kuwait, Mauritania, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Tanzania, with estimates ranging from over 3% to 7% average reductions in GDP growth rate using both pooled OLS and fixed effects estimations (with an international average of 0.95% and 1.18% respectively). This considerable opportunity costs of military expenditure raise an important and challenging question to the concerned governments about the economic and social rightfulness of this expenditure and whether their people ultimately pay the price for the government decisions of increasing military spending.     

现券市场做市报价点差的微观特征分析

交易机制与价格发现的关系一直是金融市场微观结构的重要研究方向,其目的是为了发现金融市场如何借由微观行为的不均衡实现市场层面的价格均衡过程。事实上,交易机制、交易习惯和市场均衡过程三者之间是相互影响的关系。分析和研究这三者的内在联系可以加深我们对市场的理解,并找到提高市场资源配置效率的途径。文章以做市报价收益率点差作为研究对象,详细分析了其时间分布、相关性、波动性及时间持续性等微观特征,为深入研究做市商报价和交易行为提供各种可能的切入点。     

A new paradigm for forecasting security returns in a market regulated by price limits

Numerous futures markets in the US and many stock markets around the world set a “limit” price before each trading session, based on the settlement price at the end of the previous trading day. Price limits are boundaries set by market regulators to restrict large daily fluctuations in the price of securities. Once the return limit is triggered, traders cannot observe the equilibrium return that would have prevailed in the absence of such regulation. We develop an innovative approach for forecasting security returns (and prices) in a market regulated by price limits. Our forecasting model allows for multiple limit-hits. The model is robust, straightforward and easy for practitioners to use. A few numerical predictions are provided for hypothetical securities, and for seven traded futures contracts.     

An economic analysis of lead paint laws

In this paper we develop a theoretical framework for determining whether laws designed to reduce lead paint risk are consistent with efficiency. We do this in the context of both owner-occupied and rental housing, and under different informational scenarios depending on who has knowledge about the risk. Our results suggest that efficient lead paint laws would impose on property owners and landlords a duty to notify buyers and tenants about known risks but would not impose on them a duty to inspect for or abate the risk. Our review of the existing law shows that common law standards are largely consistent with efficiency, but statutory law is not.     

Assessing the quality of a security market: a new approach to transaction-cost measurement

I discuss a new method for measuring the deviations betweenactual transaction prices and implicit efficient prices. Theapproach decomposes security transaction prices into random-walkand stationary components. The random-walk component may beidentified with the efficient price. The stationary component,the difference between the efficient price and the actual transactionprice, is termed the pricing error. Its dispersion is a naturalmeasure of market quality. I describe practical strategies forestimating these quantities. For a sample of NYSE stocks, theaverage pricing error standard deviation estimate is roughly0.33 percent of the stock price. If the pricing error is normallydistributed and if it is always a positive cost incurred bythe transaction initiators, the corresponding average transactioncost for these traders is 0.26 percent of the stock price. Thedispersion of the pricing error is also found to be elevatedat the beginning and end of the trading session.     

关于规范票据市场业务搭桥行为的思考球

为拓展业务渠道和盈利增长点,部分小型银行类金融机构会作为搭桥机构参与票据市场业务。这在助推市场流动性的同时,也可能会影响宏观经济调控效果。为此,需要将引导和规范相结合,从规范票据市场发展的相关制度与市场环境、稳妥促进信贷资产证券化及贷款转让市场发展等方面矫正票据市场搭桥行为。     

An economic analysis of competitive bidding for public sector audit engagements

This study presents and tests an equilibrium pricing model for a public sector audit engagement. The bidding model's predictive accuracy was evaluated by comparing its predictions to the actual bids for a public sector audit engagement and to the predictions of an OLS regression model. The results are that predicted bids exhibited considerable variability and that associated prediction errors were sensitive to the underlying cost parameters. While the bidding model provided reasonably accurate predictions for the entire group of firms, it systematically overestimated the winning (lowest) bid. Possible explanations for this result are advanced and empirical implications are discussed.     

Tax-induced clientele effects in the market for British government securities: Placing bounds on security values in an incomplete market

This paper develops a new methods for measuring tax effects in bond markets and presents empirical results for British Government Securities. The basic idea is to construct a least cost portfolio which, for investors in a given tax bracket, dominates a given bond. A portfolio is said to dominate a bond if it provides cash flows which are at least as great in every period, and has a lower price. In effect our method calculates an upper bound on the value of a bond to investors in a given tax bracket. The results demonstrate (i) the existence of clientele effects and (ii) the absence of an ‘effective tax rate’.     

An analysis of time-varying commodity market price discovery

We propose a model of time-varying price discovery based on a rolling-window error correction framework. We show that price discovery in nine commodities is dominated by the spot market, while, in only six commodities, price discovery is dominated by the futures market. Our findings, therefore, challenge the well-established view in commodity markets that it is the futures market which dominates the price discovery process. We also show the economic significance of price discovery through a portfolio construction and hedging strategy.