区域金融发展与经济增长关系的经验分析——以深圳为例

利用深圳市金融发展与经济增长1979～2009年年度数据,实证研究表明金融相关比率与深圳人均实际经济增长存在明显葛兰杰因果关系;人均实际经济增长对金融相关比率促进作用并不明显;金融储蓄结构和金融中介效率分别与经济增长之间的葛兰杰因果关系并不显著。因此,要深化深圳金融业发展,应该提高金融业资金配置效率以及促进金融发展由＂供给主导＂向＂需求遵从＂转变。     

The response of real wages to unanticipated money growth

This paper investigates the response of real wages to unanticipated money growth in the light of equilibrium theories of the business cycle. These theories, in their main different versions, do not deliver a common and unambiguous hypothesis on this issue. While some models implu a countercyclical real wage response during monetary cycles, others yield the opposite result of a procyclical real wage. Econometric analysis of annual and quarterly U.S. data, reported in the paper, indicates that there is a weak negative real wage response to an unanticipated increase in money growth.     

真实经济周期理论评论

不同于凯恩斯等学派的货币产出关系论,真实经济周期理论认为是产出等真实经济决定货币变动而不是相反,货币只是纯粹的面纱。真实经济周期理论关于货币政策作用机制的论述代表了货币政策调控与经济周期关系研究的新进展。这种观点从一种全新的视角为我们打开了思路,对于我国在货币政策调控上应注重需求管理与供给管理政策相结合等颇具启发意义,但其假设前提及其政策无效论与现实不符。     

Do Stock Index Futures Affect Economic Growth? Evidence from 32 Countries

This article investigates the relationship between stock index futures markets development and economic growth using time-series methods for 32 developed and developing countries. Evidence of cointegration between stock index futures and real economy in 29 countries suggests the presence of co-movements among the variables, indicating long-run stationarity in those countries. Our findings show that there is Granger-causality from stock index futures markets development to economic growth for middle-income countries with relatively low real per capita GDP, and Granger-causality in the reverse direction for the countries with high real per capita GDP. Variance decomposition and impulse-response function (IRF) analyses results support the existence of a relationship between stock index futures and real economy.     

Money stock revisions and unanticipated money growth

An important ‘empirical regularity’ is the strong positive effect of money shocks on output and employment. One strand of business cycle theory relates this finding to temporary confusions between absolute and relative price changes. These models predict positive output effects of unperceived monetary movements, but the quantitative importance of unperceived shifts in nominal aggregates is subject to question. Another strand of theory, based on long-term nominal contracts and analogous price-setting institutions, generates output effects from unanticipated, but not necessarily contemporaneously unperceived, money shocks. However, the real effects of unpredicted, but contemporaneously understood, monetary changes are not obviously consistent with efficient institutional arrangements. The present paper provides some empirical evidence on the two types of theories by analyzing the output effects associated with revisions in the money stock data, where the revisions are interpreted as components of unperceived monetary movements. The revisions turn out to have no significant explanatory power for output. Previous findings that innovations from an estimated money growth equation have a significant output effect remain intact when the revisions are included as separate explanatory variables. Overall, the study provides a small amount of evidence against the special role of unperceived, as opposed to unanticipated, money movements as a determinant of business fluctuations.     

Common stock returns,real activity,money, and inflation: Some international evidence

This paper tests whether the negative relationship between real stock returns and inflation in the United States is in fact proxying for a positive relationship between stock returns and real activity variables in six major industrial countries over 1966–1979. Consistent with Fama's ‘proxy-effect’ hypothesis, we document a negative relationship between inflation and real activity and a positive one between real stock returns and real activity variables. Real activity variables dominate money growth rates and expected and unexpected inflation in explaining real stock returns. A puzzling result that still remains is the positive role of money and the negative role of expected inflation in explaining these real stock returns in all major industrial countries.     

The Influence of the Accountant on British Business Performance From the Late Nineteenth Century to the Present Day

Britain has more professionally qualified accountants per capita than any of her leading economic rivals and they play a major role as advisers to British companies and take a disproportionate share of the jobs in top management. Unfortunately for the accountants, business historians, other academics, commentators and even contemporary politicians have almost universally noted this to be a bad thing. This article discusses whether this reputation is justified by assessing the past performance of professional accountants as business advisers and managers. Stereotypical criticisms of accountants in terms of excessive caution, their support for the holding company form, or seeing problems in narrow financial terms are found to be unjustified. The promotion of accountants to the top jobs can be seen as rational profit-maximizing behaviour by British companies and a recent survey has demonstrated the performance of accountants in top management in recent years to be superior to other professions such as engineers.     

Inventories,rational expectations,and the business cycle

The simplest macroeconomic models in which markets clear instantaneously, and expectations are rational preclude the existence of ‘business cycles’, that is, of serially correlated deviations of output from trend. This paper studies one of several mechanisms that can be used to make these so-called ‘new-classical’ models produce business cycles; the mechanism is the gradual adjustment of inventory stocks. Two macroeconomic models of inventory holdings are formulated. Both imply, first, that current output should be a decreasing function of the stock of inventories and, second, that inventories, once perturbed from equilibrium levels, should adjust only gradually. These two features are then embedded into an otherwise standard macroeconomic model in which markets clear instantaneously and expectations are rational. Two principal conclusions are reached. First, disturbances such as unanticipated changes in money will set in motion serially correlated deviations of output from trend. Second, if desired inventories are sensitive to the real interest rate, then even fully anticipated changes in money can affect real variables.     

Real money balances as a productive input: Further evidence

Using a translog production function and data from the United States private sector over the period 1929–1972, this paper clarifies the theoretical debate which has occured on whether real money balances are an original factor input or a catalyst with a role similar to technological innovation. Real money balances are found to be an important factor input that cannot be treated as separable from the primary factor inputs capital and labor. Furthermore, the results indicate that real money balances are substitutes for capital but complements with labor while capital and labor are, in a relative sense complements.     

A Required Yield Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Treasury Yield Determination

Stock market valuation and Treasury yield determination are consistent with the Fisher effect (1896) as generalized by Darby (1975) and Feldstein (1976) . The U.S. stock market (S&P 500) is priced to yield ex-ante a real after-tax return directly related to real long-term GDP/capita growth (the required yield ). Elements of our theory show that: (1) real after-tax Treasury and S&P 500 forward earnings yields are stationary processes around positive means; (2) the stock market is indeed priced as the present value of expected dividends with the proviso that investors are expecting fast mean reversion of the S&P 500 nominal growth opportunities to zero. Moreover, (3) the equity premium is mostly due to business cycle risk and is a direct function of below trend expected productivity, where productivity is measured by the growth in book value of S&P 500 equity per-share. Inflation and fear-based risk premia only have a secondary impact on the premium. The premium is always positive or zero with respect to long-term Treasuries. It may be negative for short-term Treasuries when short-term productivity outpaces medium and long run trends. Consequently: (4) Treasury yields are mostly determined in reference to the required yield and the business cycle risk premium; (5) the yield spread is largely explained by the differential of long-term book value per share growth vs. near term growth, with possible yield curve inversions. Finally, (6) the Fed model is partially validated since both the S&P 500 forward earnings yield and the ten-year Treasury yield are determined by a common factor: the required yield.     

网络虚拟货币对货币供求的影响及效应分析

虚拟货币不是真正的货币。只要真实货币与虚拟货币处于两个不同的市场,虚拟货币就不可能引发现实的通货膨胀,虚拟货币的发行也不会对货币发行产生严重冲击。但是,目前虚拟货币已经不满足于"虚拟"世界,逐渐进入现实流通领域。我们应当正视虚拟货币对货币供求的负面影响。中央银行需要构建专门应用于网络虚拟货币的新型交易平台,建立网络消费者虚拟资金存款账户,保证中央银行调控网络虚拟货币的力度和弹性。     

代理行业务洗钱风险与反洗钱监控机制分析

银行开展代理行业务可能面临的严重洗钱风险因汇丰洗钱案再次引起全世界瞩目。本文主要从国家风险、客户风险两方面分析了代理行业务面临的洗钱风险,从FATF风险为本方法入手,分析了银行控制代理行业务洗钱风险的反洗钱监控措施。     

Habit formation and the persistence of monetary shocks

The dynamic effects and relative importance of monetary shocks in the US business cycle are studied using a sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with habit formation and capital adjustment costs. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood using data on output, real money balances, and the nominal interest rate. Econometric results indicate that the model has a strong internal propagation mechanism that can explain the persistent and hump-shaped response of US output and consumption to monetary shocks.     

多元城镇化、门槛效应与房地产库存：理论解释与实证检验

基于我国房地产和城镇化省际面板数据,构建面板模型和门槛效应模型,考量多元城镇化、门槛效应对房地产库存的影响.结果表明:人口城镇化、空间城镇化和产业城镇化对房地产库存具有显著抑制作用,资本城镇化对房地产库存具有显著促进作用,技术城镇化对房地产库存的影响存在门槛效应.随着技术城镇化跨越人均可支配收入相应门槛值,其对房地产库存的影响由显著到不显著再到非常显著,由促进作用转变为抑制作用,影响系数的绝对值也转变为较大.     

简析《商业银行资本管理办法（试行）对货币市场资金业务的影响

2013年起,《商业银行资本管理办法（试行）》正式实施。该办法提高了“对商业银行债权”的风险权重,将对商业银行货币市场场内外资金业务产生一定影响。文章从货币市场、商业银行经营行为以及资金业务特点等方面,简析新政策对货币市场业务的影响及商业银行所面临的机遇和挑战,并对商业银行货币市场资金业务的发展策略进行了探讨。     

银行代理保险业务的洗钱风险及防范对策

近几年来，我国银行代理保险业务发展迅猛，给我国的经济金融注入了新的活力，但由于对洗钱风险认识不足，业务人员反洗钱技能不高，内控制度不健全等，使得银行代理保险业务中存在较高的洗钱风险，应予以关注。     

浙商对长春民营经济的启示

浙江,特别是温州,以其人均资源全国倒数第三,而人均GDP却多年稳居全国第一的温州模式,成为全国民营经济的一面旗帜。它们所依靠的“民资、民智、民力”而形成的民营企业群给长春的民营经济发展以很好的启示:长春的民营经济要快速发展,必须在发展环境上做文章,为民营经济创造一个大展宏图的广阔天地。     

Divisia Monetary Aggregates,the Great Ratios,and Classical Money Demand Functions

King et al. ( 1991 ) evaluate the empirical relevance of a class of real business cycle models with permanent productivity shocks by analyzing the stochastic trend properties of postwar U.S. macroeconomic data. They find a common stochastic trend in a three‐variable system that includes output, consumption, and investment, but the explanatory power of the common trend drops significantly when they add money balances and the nominal interest rate. In this paper, we revisit the cointegration tests in the spirit of King et al., using improved monetary aggregates whose construction has been stimulated by the Barnett critique. We show that previous rejections of the balanced growth hypothesis and classical money demand functions can be attributed to mismeasurement of the monetary aggregates.     

劳动力转移对农户消费和投资水平的影响

劳动力转移会显著提高农户人均生活消费和人均居住支出水平,但对农户人均生产性固定资产购置支出没有产生显著影响。通过劳动力就地转移方式和异地转移方式的比较发现,就地转移会使农户人均生活消费和人均居住支出水平得以提高,但异地转移却对农户人均生活消费和人均居住支出没有产生显著影响,同时,两种转移方式对农户人均生产性固定资产购置支出均没有产生显著影响。     

Did the U.S. Treasury’s capital purchase program (CPP) help bank lending and business activity?

The 2008 financial crisis led the U.S. Treasury to implement the capital purchase program (CPP) to revive commercial bank lending and hence stimulate business activity. Employing dynamic panel techniques and methodologies from the bank lending channel literature we find that after controlling for asset size, bank capital, and macroeconomic variables (real GDP growth rate and interest rate spreads), the impact of the CPP program is statistically significant only for money center banks. However, over our sample period from 2008Q3 to 2009Q4 we find a very modest impact on lending by only the largest banks. Overall, our results suggest that CPP’s business objective to boost loan growth and hence business activity during the crisis remained unfulfilled.