New insights into an old issue – examining the influence of tourism on economic growth: evidence from selected small island developing states

This paper uses relatively new heterogeneous panel autoregressive distributed lag cointegration methods to re-examine the long-run equilibrium and Granger causality relationship between tourism and economic growth for the small island developing states (SIDSs). In addition, the study incorporates energy consumption and foreign direct investment (FDI) as alternative growth determinants, during the period 1995–2014. After allowing for the heterogeneous country effect, a positive and statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship between tourism, energy consumption, FDI, and gross domestic product, with a moderate convergence rate towards the long-run path is confirmed. The panel Granger causality test as proposed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin [(2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450–1460.] shows bidirectional causality running from tourism to economic growth, from tourism to energy consumption and from energy consumption to economic growth, and unidirectional causality between FDI and tourism, between economic growth and FDI, and between FDI and energy consumption. Our empirical findings provide support for tourism-induced growth, tourism-induced energy consumption, tourism-induced investment, and the energy consumption-economic growth relationship in the case of SIDSs. Our empirical results resonate with the existing findings with major policy implications for the SIDSs.     

Is the tourism‐led growth hypothesis valid for malaysia? a view from disaggregated tourism markets

This research note attempts to re‐investigate the validity of tourism‐led growth hypothesis for Malaysia based on the data set of 12 different tourism markets from January 1995 to February 2009. The error‐correction modelling‐based cointegration test shows that economic growth and international tourist arrivals are cointegrated for all tourism markets. Nevertheless, the Granger causality results demonstrate that not all international tourism markets Granger‐cause economic growth. Therefore, identification of potential tourism markets is vital for implementing effective tourism marketing policies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Small sample evidence on the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Lebanon

This paper investigates the contribution of tourism to economic growth in Lebanon for the time period of 1995–2010. The presence of long-run and causal relationships is investigated applying the bounds testing approach to cointegration and Granger causality tests. Because of the small sample (T?=?16), econometric approaches and critical values used for testing receive special attention. Additionally, a number of diagnostic tests are utilised to ensure that the model is suitable and correct. Interestingly, our results reveal that tourism and economic growth are cointegrated. The Granger causality test indicates that the tourism-led growth hypothesis is valid for Lebanon. Therefore, policy initiatives promoting tourism ought to be further developed and implemented to stimulate economic growth and development for the economy of Lebanon.     

Tourism development and economic growth: a panel Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain

In this paper, we test the causal relationship between economic growth and tourism development in the 1995–2012 period using recently developed panel Granger causality tests that allow for country-level heterogeneity, thus leading to more accurate results for the 12 Mediterranean countries. Although results of the Dumitrescu and Hurlin [(2012) testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450–1460] panel Granger causality test show a unidirectional causality from tourism development to economic growth, results of the Croux and Reusens [(2013). Do stock prices contain predictive power for the future economic activity? A Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain. Journal of Macroeconomics, 35, 93–103] panel Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain show that there is a bidirectional temporary and permanent causality between tourism development and economic growth. The bidirectional causality relationship between tourism development and economic growth, which is the main finding of this study, suggests that in order to achieve high economic growth, policy-makers should focus on developing the tourism sector.     

International tourism and economic development in South Africa: a Granger causality test

One of the major objectives of macroeconomic policies in many developing countries is sustained economic growth, and South Africa has been striving to achieve and maintain this in various ways. One of these is through international tourism. Although international tourism contributes to the growth of many economies, it is in turn, impacted by growth in many developed countries. Real gross domestic product (GDP), international tourism earnings, real effective exchange rate and exports were analysed within a multivariate vector auto regressive model using annual data covering 1980–2005. The main focus of this study therefore was to demonstrate the direction of causality between international tourism earnings and long‐run economic growth of South Africa, among other variables, using Granger causality analysis. The result obtained showed a unidirectional causality running from international tourism earnings to real GDP, both in the short run and in the long run. The error correction mechanism carried out also supported this causality. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The causal relationship between air transport and economic growth: Empirical evidence from South Asia

This paper examines the causal relationship between air transport and economic growth in the South Asian context. Using panel data over a period of 42 years (1973–2014), we apply Pedroni/Johansen cointegration test methods, followed by Granger long-run and Wald short-run causality tests. To allow for spatial heterogeneity we then apply Time Series Cross Section (TSCS) Granger causality tests for each of the eight analysed countries separately. Our results confirm a long-run uni-directional Granger causality which runs from GDP to air passenger traffic and also to air freight volumes. Contrary to the existing literature we do not find a long-run bi-directional causality which confirms that spatial dimensions and context matter (i.e. low income and large populations). The absence of short-run causality and the identified time lags of 3–4 years should guide aviation firms and policy makers in the preparation of necessary infrastructure required to support the strong air transport growth potential.     

The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey

In the economic growth literature, the contribution of tourism to economic development has attracted great attention due to its significant roles as a source of foreign exchange earnings, creation of employment opportunities and an important source of public revenues in many countries. In this paper, we aim to analyse the empirical relationship between economic growth and tourism by employing different econometric techniques. First, we employed the Bound test approach developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001, Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326) in order to investigate the co-integration relationship between economic growth and tourism. Second, we used the Granger causality analysis for the 1998–2011 period and found evidence of a long-run uni-directional causality running from tourism to economic growth, but not vice versa. Our findings show that the Turkish case supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). Third, the autoregressive-distributed lag approach was employed in order to investigate the long-term and short-term static relationship between tourism and economic growth. The results show that tourism has a positive effect on gross domestic product and economic growth both in the long-term and short-term. Finally, the effect of tourism on economic growth was also investigated dynamically by employing the Kalman filter method. The findings of this method support the TLGH for Turkey.     

Domestic air passenger traffic and economic growth in China: Evidence from heterogeneous panel models

This paper applies recent panel methodology to examine the short-run dynamics, the long-run equilibrium relationships and the Granger causal relationship between economic growth and domestic air passenger traffic. It is based on the quarterly panel data of 29 provinces in China from the period of 2006Q1 to 2012Q3. Tests for panel unit roots, cointegration in heterogeneous panels and panel causality are employed in a bi-variate panel vector error correction model (PVECM), which is estimated by the system generalized moment method (SYS-GMM). The results show evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and domestic air passenger traffic. Specifically, 1% increase in the air passenger traffic is found to lead to an increase of 0.943% in real gross domestic product (GDP). A long-run and strong bi-directional Granger causal relationship is found between these two series. It is also found that there is a short-run uni-directional Granger causality running from the domestic air passenger traffic to the economic growth.     

Does tourism cause growth? Evidence from Turkey

This paper examines the impact of detailed tourism expenditure on the long-run economic growth by employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and causality test for data set of 2003:1 to 2012:4 in Turkey. The detailed tourism expenditure data are firstly employed for the causality of tourism expenditure on economic growth. The results of the bounds test show that there is a stable long-run relationship between accommodation expenses, transport expenditure, expenditure of sporting activities, sightseeing tour expenditure, clothing–footwear expenditure, gift expenditure and economic growth. The results of the causality test, on the other hand, show that there is a bidirectional causality between accommodation expenses, expenditure of sporting activities, gift expenditure and economic growth and a causal flow from transport expenditure to economic growth which is verified growth-led tourism hypothesis. Results reveal that sightseeing tour expenditure and expenditure of sporting activities are more successful on explaining the long-run growth in Turkey in terms of ARDL coefficients size. This result implies a policy that Turkey needs to invest tourism to gain more especially by focusing accommodation, sightseeing tours, sporting activities and transport infrastructure.     

Tourism,health and income in Singapore

This paper employs Granger causality test to investigate the long‐run and the short‐run dynamic interactions among tourism, economic development and health care development in Singapore. The test reveals that there is long‐run unidirectional Granger causality from health care development to economic development and from tourism to economic development. Both health care and tourism have positive effects on economic development in the long run. In the short run, there is a unidirectional Granger causality from economic development to health care development and a bidirectional causality between health care development and tourism. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Air cargo expansion and economic growth: Finding the empirical link

This paper applies Granger causality tests to examine the causal relationship between air cargo expansion and economic growth in Taiwan for the period 1974–2006. The results of cointegration tests show a long-run equilibrium and bi-directional relationship between air cargo expansion and economic growth in the case of Taiwan.     

Exploring the dynamic linkages between tourism growth and environmental pollution: new evidence from the Mediterranean countries

ABSTRACT

The present study explores the impact of tourism on environmental pollution using a comprehensive set of air pollutants, namely CO₂, CO, NO_x, SO₂, PM_2.5, and PM₁₀, in a multivariate framework under the context of the Mediterranean countries. The panel cointegration tests indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between environmental pollution, energy consumption, economic development and tourism growth. The tourism-induced EKC hypothesis is validated for four out of six air pollution indicators in the Southern Mediterranean countries, whereas in the Northern Mediterranean region we fail to document any evidence supporting the hypothesis. In addition, tourism growth has a differential impact on different air pollution indicators across regions. The major findings from the panel Granger causality tests show that bidirectional causality exists between four air pollutants (CO₂, NO_x, SO_2, and PM_2.5) and tourism and unidirectional causality runs from CO and PM₁₀ to tourism growth in the Northern Mediterranean. In contrast, there is a feedback relationship between environmental pollution (CO and NO_x) and tourism growth and one-way causality running from environmental pollution (CO₂, SO_2, PM_2.5, and PM₁₀) to tourism development in the Southern Mediterranean.     

The relationship between tourism receipts,real effective exchange rate and economic growth in Tunisia

The objective of this paper is to analyse the role of tourism in the Tunisian economic growth. We used a trivariate model of real gross domestic product (GDP), real international tourism receipts and real effective exchange rate to discuss the relationship between tourism and economic growth. By using annual data for Tunisia for the period of 1970–2007, our results reveal that there is a cointegrating relationship between tourism and economic growth. In addition, our results for the Granger causality test indicate that tourism has a positive impact on GDP growth unidirectionally. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The relationship between tourism,foreign direct investment and economic growth: evidence from Iran

Tourism is one of the world's largest industries and an increasingly important source of foreign currency that is used to finance economic growth. The purpose of this study is to examine the long-term and short-term relationships between tourism and economic growth in Iran, by using annual data covering the 1985–2013 period and autoregressive distributed lag and the Error Correction model to examine the relationships between variables. The findings showed that there is a positive relationship between tourism expenditure and economic growth in the long term and short term. The result indicate that there is also positive relationship between the real effective exchange rate (REER), foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth. The Granger causality test shows a bidirectional causality running between tourism expenditure and economic growth.     

Tourism development and economic growth in the Mediterranean countries: evidence from panel Granger causality tests

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between tourism development and economic growth in the Mediterranean countries using the newly developed panel Granger causality tests for the 1995–2010 period. It is concluded that while there is bidirectional causal nexus between tourism development and economic growth for Portugal, unidirectional causal nexus from economic growth to tourism development is found for Spain, Italy, Tunisia, Cyprus, Croatia, Bulgaria and Greece. Therefore, the growth-led tourism hypothesis is supported in case of these seven countries. On the other hand, there is no causal relation for Malta and Egypt. The study finds evidence to support the tourism-led growth hypothesis for a group of panel in Mediterranean countries. The results of the overall study suggest that governments of Mediterranean countries should focus on economic policies to promote tourism as a potential source of economic growth.     

Temporal Granger Causality and the Dynamics Relationship Between Real Tourism Receipts,Real Income and Real Exchange Rates in Malaysia

This study applies the bounds testing approach, error‐correction modelling and persistence profile to analyse the dynamic relationship between real tourism receipts, real income and real exchange rates in Malaysia. The present study covers the annual sample period from 1974 to 2009. The results reveal that a long‐run relationship exists between the variables. In the short run, this study finds no Granger causality between real tourism receipts and real income, whereas there is bidirectional causality in the long‐run. Moreover, we also find unidirectional causality running from real exchange rates to real tourism receipts and real income in both short‐ and long‐run. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tourism and Long‐run Economic Growth in Aruba

This study examines the long‐run relationship between tourism development and economic growth in a small island destination. Determining whether the nature of the relationship is unidirectional or bidirectional provides insightful information as to policies to be implemented. This information is crucial in a resource‐poor environment, such as a small island destination. The study employs an econometric methodology consisting of unit root testing, co‐integration analysis, vector error correction modeling and Granger causality testing. Results confirm the reciprocal hypothesis. The policy implication is that resource allocation supporting both the tourism and tourism‐related industries could benefit both tourism development and economic growth. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The interaction between tourism and FDI in real estate in OECD countries

The purpose of this article is to investigate the empirical link between foreign direct investment (FDI) in real estate sector (FDIRE) and international tourism (TOUR). Panel co-integration and panel Granger causality techniques are applied to analyse both long- and short-run relationships for the case study of selected OECD countries. Our empirical results show the existence of the long-run and a bi-directional causal relationship between FDIRE and TOUR. The results provide some implications for policy-makers.     

Inbound tourism and long-run economic growth

There is an upsurge of literature investigating the relationship between inbound tourism expansion and economic growth with special emphasis on developing countries. Some countries – such as Spain and Italy – can be taken as examples of demonstrating such a successful trajectory. This paper provides an empirical investigation of the evolution of the Spanish and Italian economies and their respective tourism sectors from the 1950s and 1960s, respectively. This research is theoretically based on the literature on demand-based growth and the methodology adopted is that of the integration, cointegration and multivariate Granger causality tests. The results show the influencing role of inbound tourism for both economies.     

A nonlinear approach to the tourism-led growth hypothesis: the case of the MERCOSUR

This paper analyses the tourism-led growth hypothesis for the four countries of the MERCOSUR regional trade block. By applying nonlinear techniques, we explore whether tourism activity leads – in the long run – to economic growth, or, alternatively, economic expansion drives tourism growth, or indeed a bidirectional relationship exists between the two variables. To this end, non-parametric cointegration and causality tests are applied to quarterly data for the period 1990–2011. We show the existence of a cointegrated relationship between real per capita gross domestic product and tourism expenditure for all countries. Moreover, the linearity of this relation is rejected for both Argentina and Brazil (economies with a relatively diversified structure). The non-parametric causality tests confirm in all cases the causality from tourism to growth. Meanwhile, only for Uruguay and Argentina causality also goes in the inverse direction (from growth to tourism). Finally, the paper compares the results of the nonlinear approach with those obtained by using the traditional linear methodology.