2015年后国际发展议程谈判评析

发展问题是联合国大会的核心议题之一。随着落实联合国千年发展目标最后期限的临近,如何制定2015年后国际发展议程越来越受到世界各方的关注。从目前来看,千年发展目标的实施进展喜中有忧,这对2015年后国际发展议程谈判中各方产生很大的影响。虽然2015年后国际发展议程谈判尚处于预备性谈判阶段,但发达国家、发展中国家和市民社会等主要参与方的立场已逐渐成型,未来谈判的一些基本态势已经显现。     

Do Donors Target Aid in Line with the Millennium Development Goals? A Sector Perspective of Aid Allocation

We analyze the aid portfolio of various bilateral and multilateral donors, testing whether they have prioritized aid in line with the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Employing Tobit models that combine sectorally disaggregated aid data with various indicators reflecting the situation of recipient countries regarding the MDGs, we show that donors differ in the extent to which their sectoral aid allocation is conducive to achieving major MDGs. Some MDGs, notably the fight against HIV/AIDS, have shaped the allocation of aid. However, with respect to other MDGs such as primary education, there is a considerable gap between donor rhetoric and actual aid allocation. This invites the conclusion that the current focus on substantially increasing aid is unlikely to have the desired effects unless the targeting of aid is improved. JEL no. F35, O11, O19     

Macroeconomic policies and their impact on health in Zimbabwe in the 1980s and 1990s: An analysis of the prevalence of diarrhoea,malnutrition, maternal mortality and access to health services

The main objective of this article is to examine how the changes in macroeconomic policies have shaped health outcomes, particularly with regard to diarrhoea, malnutrition, maternal mortality and access to health services, and how these health outcomes vary by income, geographical location and gender. Macroeconomic policies in Zimbabwe have tended to shape health outcomes and they have also had an impact on trends in household income levels and access to health facilities. During the 1980s, the government's health policy 'Equity in health' led to increased access to health facilities. The policy of free health for low-income households made it possible for poorer groups to access health facilities more easily. However, the introduction of economic reform programmes popularly known as the Economic Structural Adjustment Programmes in Zimbabwe, has witnessed a massive shift in macropolicies. These policy changes have tended to affect the health sector in a negative manner. The introduction of user fees as a cost recovery measure and the rollback on government expenditure on social sectors, health included, have led to a reduction in the population able to access health facilities. Results of studies have shown a positive relationship between the prevalence of diarrhoea, malnutrition and access to health facilities with income levels, rural/urban location and gender.     

Understanding the nexus between energy and water: A basis for human survival in South Africa

Despite the fact that the South African economy is highly diversified, the sustainability of its economic growth depends on the availability of two critical resources: water and energy. The national energy grid is mostly based on coal combustion, with very few viable alternative resources. Large amounts of water are needed to produce energy from coal and, in most places where coal reserves are located, there is evidence of water scarcity. The sustainable management of both sectors is essential, since research has shown that access to potable water and energy will lead to a better quality of life for people and help alleviate poverty. This paper will focus on the interlinkages and understanding of the trade-offs between water and energy and its implications for sustainable development in South Africa. The simultaneous implementation of selected Sustainable Development Goals targets could help reduce the trade-off between the two sectors.     

Kenya's focus on urban vulnerability and resilience in the midst of urban transitions in Nairobi

ABSTRACT

Addressing urban vulnerability requires an understanding of the underlying determinants of resilience for individuals, households, communities and institutions – to withstand shocks, to adapt and to change. Analysing urban resilience utilises the results of five rounds of the Indicator Development for Surveillance of Urban Emergencies surveys conducted in three informal settlements of Nairobi. Results show a significant deterioration in food security and household hunger in marginalised urban populations, with other deprivations including insecurity, negative coping behaviour and inadequate access to water and sanitation. Within slum populations, there was a significant variation in income and expenditure (p?<?0.05) with lowest income quintiles spending over 100% of their income on food. Significant gender disparities have been shown in lowest income quintiles, with female breadwinners earning 62% compared with male breadwinners (p?<?0.05). Recommendations from this analysis include establishing thresholds for vulnerability and concrete dimensions for measuring resilience that can initiate and guide related interventions.     

Does Aid Improve Public Service Delivery?

The expected increase in aid to Africa will put a big challenge for public service delivery. This paper provides an analysis of the effects of the volume and volatility of aid on education, health, water and sanitation outcomes, taking also into account the institutions related to public service delivery, including freedom of press, corruption, and decentralization, using a simultaneous equation model. Overall the share of Official Development Assistance (ODA) that is provided for education and health seems to have a positive impact on outcomes in these sectors, whereas total aid seems to be negatively associated. Aid volatility is associated with better outcomes in sanitation, water, and infant mortality, contrary to expectations. JEL no. H4, H5, H7, I1, I2, L9, O2     

CAN VIETNAM ACHIEVE THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOAL ON POVERTY REDUCTION IN HIGH INFLATION AND ECONOMIC STAGNATION?

An important aspect of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to which Vietnam is committed is to reduce overall and food poverty. Although Vietnam has achieved remarkable reductions in poverty during recent years, Vietnam may not achieve its MDGs on poverty reduction because of high inflation and economic stagnation. This paper uses three recent Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys (VHLSSs), in 2002, 2004, and 2006, to forecast poverty in 2008 and 2010 to examine whether Vietnam can achieve its MDGs on poverty reduction. The forecast takes into account high inflation in 2008 and economic stagnation during 2008–09. It is found that Vietnam may be able to achieve its MDGs on reduction of overall poverty; however, the MDGs on food poverty reduction may not be achieved.     

THE EFFECT OF ACCESS TO IMPROVED WATER SOURCES AND SANITATION ON ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY: THE CASE OF SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES

This paper evaluates the effect of access to improved water sources and sanitation on 41 sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries' economic efficiency and growth. For this reason data envelopment analysis (DEA), bootstrap techniques and probabilistic approaches are used. The empirical results indicate that SSA countries' economic efficiency is positively influenced by the access of population both on improved water sources and sanitation. Finally, when the provision of access to improved water sources is provided to more than 50% of the population, the positive effect on countries' economic efficiency is much greater compared with the effect of providing sustainable access to improved sanitation to the same proportion of population.     

Children in Zimbabwe after the long crisis: Situation analysis and policy issues

Children in Zimbabwe suffered badly during the long crisis from circa 1990 to 2008 as the economy and social services collapsed, under-five mortality, maternal mortality and malnutrition rose, the number of orphans increased 20-fold and thousands of children experienced psychosocial trauma. Recent household surveys in Zimbabwe show that most indicators of child welfare remain at or below where they were 25 years ago. Many effects of the crisis on children are long term, even permanent, including prenatal and early childhood malnutrition, orphanhood, traumas from witnessing or being victims of violence, and disrupted education. This article analyses the Government of Zimbabwe's two most recent national development plans in relation to children's needs and rights as expressed in major international declarations. Suggestions are made for focusing on re-establishing basic services to break the cycle of harm to children, build children's capacities and deal with past traumas.     

A qualitative assessment of disability friendly water and sanitation facilities in primary schools,Rumphi, Malawi

Students with disabilities commonly face barriers when accessing water and using sanitation and hygiene facilities at school. International frameworks have prompted governments to enact local policies that enshrine these rights, guarantee equitable access to education and mandate inclusive infrastructure. This research was designed to explore whether Malawi has translated good policies into practice. Data were gathered in Rumphi district, Malawi, through structured field observations in ten schools and interviews with students with a disability (n?=?23), teachers (n?=?11) and government stakeholders (n?=?2). No school had facilities that fully meet the needs of students with disabilities, and private schools were not necessarily better. The cost of bringing existing infrastructure up to standard was on average MK54 000 (US$78). However, proactive consultation with children with a disability is likely to generate alternative low-cost short-term solutions. Increased government support, budgeting and enforcement is necessary to ensure international standards and national policies are met.     

Broiler production in an urban and peri-urban area of Zimbabwe

ABSTRACT

Broiler chicken production is an important livelihood option for urban households in Zimbabwe. A study was carried out to document the technical, demographic and socio-economic parameters characterising the production of broilers in an urban area of Zimbabwe. Findings showed that producers have quite diverse livelihoods and broiler production is not restricted to a survival strategy for the urban poor with no livelihood alternatives, but mostly involved the more privileged. Access to start-up capital and property ownership were pre-requisites for the business. Broiler units were small-scale, informal, backyard businesses dominated by women. Flock sizes averaged 398 (range 25–3500) birds per cycle. However, 79% of the producers kept at most 200 birds per cycle. The mean stocking density was 9.5?birds/m² and reported mortality averaged 7.4%. Respondents have ad hoc marketing arrangements, and face constraints with regard to lack of sectoral support, shortage of capital, prohibitive council by-laws, market access and disease. Poultry production is therefore an important livelihood and business option in the urban and peri-urban area studied.     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN ZIMBABWE: THE ROLE OF INSTITUTIONAL AND MACROECONOMIC FACTORS

The purpose of our research is to examine the impact of property rights on foreign direct investment (FDI) in Zimbabwe for the period 1964‐2005. While the macroeconomic determinants of FDI have been analysed to a considerable extent in past empirical work, the role of institutional factors such as the protection of property rights and the efficiency of the legal system has been underexplored. Using a multivariate cointegration framework, we use a newly constructed de jure property rights index for Zimbabwe to determine the impact of property rights on FDI. The empirical evidence shows that property rights are consistently an important explanatory variable of FDI in Zimbabwe, even after controlling for periods when there are no significant new foreign capital inflows. Other significant explanatory variables of FDI in Zimbabwe are the real gross domestic product (GDP), capital intensity, the external debt to GDP ratio, political instability as well as the educational levels.     

The impact of cash transfers on household welfare in Namibia

Namibia has a long history of providing a universal and non-contributory old age pension, child grants using means testing and quasi-conditionalities, and other cash transfers. Multivariate analysis presented in this paper confirms that these transfers play an important role in alleviating poverty, especially for the very poor. The poverty-reducing effects of the child grants are likely to increase further as access is being rapidly expanded. However, the impact in terms of reducing Namibia's extremely high inequality is limited. The targeting of the cash transfers towards the poorest groups takes place through two main channels. For the child grant, targeting occurs as a result of the orphan status eligibility criteria, as orphans are over-represented in lower-income households. For the universal social pension, it appears that some of the relatively less poor do not receive it even if they are eligible. Means testing of child grants appears ineffective, even without considering administrative costs.     

Access to Improved Water Sources and Rural Productivity: Analytical Framework and Cross‐country Evidence

Abstract: In this study we address the issue of access to drinking water in rural areas related to agricultural productivity performance. Considering an agricultural household model as our basic conceptual framework, we analyze the theoretical aspects of increasing the access rate to drinking water on agricultural productivity. First, we show that the increased access rate to drinking water is conducive to agricultural productivity due to increased intrinsic productivity of individuals and additional gain in time for agricultural production. Second, it transpires that the constraints on the access to drinking water may be costly in terms of decreased productivity and well‐being of rural people. Furthermore, based on a sample of 27 African countries over the period 1990–2010, estimation results do not reject the assumption that increasing access to drinking water has a positive effect on rural productivity growth. This positive effect is reinforced by the presence of a better sanitation system, even after controlling for country‐specific effects and for the characteristics of rural areas.     

Debt Relief and Social Services Expenditure: The African Experience, 1989–2003

Abstract: In June 2005 the G8 proposed the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) with the goal of canceling all International Development Association (IDA), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and African Development Fund (ADF) debt claims on countries that have reached, or will eventually reach, the completion point under the enhanced Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative. The objective is to help HIPC make progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. The G8 initiative is worth $40 billion and would benefit 14 African countries immediately. It has the potential of freeing more resources than any past debt relief program. Between the 1988 Paris Club debt relief program up to 2003, Africa earned debt relief worth $65 billion. We take a critical look at the chances that the G8 initiative will reach its goals by empirically investigating the extent to which past debt relief granted to African countries did translate into a larger share of resources being allocated to social services expenditure. Our estimates indicate that debt relief provided to Africa between 1989 and 2003 had a positive impact on the share of a country's resources allocated either to public education or health in countries which have improved their institutions. Consequently, donors must address the need for institutional change as they grant debt relief to HIPC if the latter are to channel the freed‐up resources to the social sector.     

国际河流纠纷的国家责任问题

当今淡水资源日趋紧张、国际河流水资源的合理利用与管理已成为国际社会广泛关注的重要问题。笔者结合盖巴斯科夫——拉基玛洛大坝案,通过对该案的分析与总结基础上,认为：一方面,应将可持续发展原则、风险预防原则等特殊的环境法原则提升到国际法的基本原则范畴。在国家责任方面不能仅以对环境造成损害后果来作为追究责任的前提,也应该考虑对防止损害费用的补偿;另一方面,针对中国国际河流水资源的开发和利用,也提出了几点建议,以冀更好地推动我国水资源的环境保护。     

Global Public Finance and Funding the Millennium Development Goals

Summary The members of the United Nations have agreed to the Millennium Development Goals, but there remains a major challenge of funding these ambitions. This paper examines alternative sources of development funding: global taxes, new Special Drawing Rights, the International Finance Facility, a global lottery, and increased private transfers. The paper suggests that “global public finance” can contribute to the public debate about these alternatives. It indicates how progress can be made without unanimity, that subsidiarity can increase national acceptance, and draws attention to the implications of the changing world distribution of income.Based on the Fourth Jelle Zijlstra Lecture given at the Free University, Amsterdam, on 12 December 2005. I am most grateful to Antony Burgmans, the discussant, and other members of the audience, for their comments.     

Road crashes in Namibia: Challenges and opportunities for sustainable development

ABSTRACT

Within a broad framework for comprehensive advancement, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) directly address the importance of safe transport to human development. We analysed some 29 000 crashes recorded in Namibia between 2012 and 2015 to identify connections between road safety and sustainable development there and, by extension, throughout Sub-Saharan Africa and other developing countries. The results indicate that the heavy reliance on transport services for basic mobility, especially in rural areas, contributes to negative development outcomes in terms of significant burden of injuries and death, many of which affect younger people of prime working age. The results also suggest that development pressures such as increased commercial traffic and more private vehicles increase the burden of roadway crashes. Many of the underlying factors contributing to these crashes are attributable to driving behaviours and safety cultures that must be addressed as part of programmatic socioeconomic development in order to mitigate the negative effects of transportation and more fully realise its potential to support sustainable development. We document additional ways in which the provision of safe transport is interrelated to successful attainment of the broader SDGs including those not explicitly addressing safe transport such as 4, 5, 8, 9, 16, and 17.     

A decade's story of childhood malnutrition inequality in China: Where you live does matter

A concentration index methodology to analyze the inequality in childhood malnutrition in China is outlined. Height-for-age z-score is used as a measure of childhood malnutrition. Using household survey data from nine Chinese provinces, we found that per capita household income, household head's education, urban residence and access to a bus stop are associated with lower malnutrition. Child's age has a nonlinear relationship with the malnutrition status. Income growth and access to public transportation are associated with less severe inequality, while rural–urban gap, provincial differentials, and unequal distribution of household head's education are associated with higher levels of inequality in childhood malnutrition. Gender is not relevant for either malnutrition status or inequality. Investments in infrastructure and welfare programs are recommended to ameliorate the inequality in childhood malnutrition.