Effect of exchange rate volatility on industry trade flows between Malaysia and China

This paper investigates the impact of ringgit/yuan volatility on Malaysian trade with her largest trading partner, China. The short- and long-run impacts are estimated using bounds testing approach to cointegration analysis and disaggregated bilateral trade data by industry over the period of 1985–2010. Specifically, we considered a total of 151 importing and 24 exporting industries in Malaysia that traded with China. Our finding indicates that cointegration existed in 94 Malaysian import industry models and 16 Malaysian export industry models. Among these cases, exchange rate volatility has short-run effects on majority of the models. However, the short-run effects shift into the long-run effects in 46 out of 69 industries in import models and 5 out of 10 industries in export models. Results indicate that the exchange rate uncertainty has positive effects on majority of these industries.     

Shocks to Malaysia's Exports: Temporary or Permanent?

ABSTRACT

The export sector has been the primary source of growth and development in the Malaysian economy. However, a high degree of openness as well as dependence on a few product categories have rendered Malaysia vulnerable to external export shocks. In this paper, we use unit root testing to demonstrate that exogenous export shocks can have either a temporary or a permanent effect on the Malaysian domestic economy depending on their country of origin. The resulting merits of country-specific export policies are discussed.     

The Effects of Currency Depreciation on Industry Trade Flows between Malaysia and China

ABSTRACT

This article investigates the impact of real depreciation of ringgit/yuan on Malaysian bilateral trade with her largest trading partner, China, over the period of 1987 to 2013. Using disaggregated import and export data from 39 industries, the results from the bounds testing approach to co-integration and error-correction model reveal that the real bilateral exchange rate has short- and long-run effects in the majority of the industries. However, the short-run effects shift into the long run in nine out of 20 import industries and in 13 out of 20 export industries. Most of these are small industries producing intermediate goods.     

THE CASUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR OF THE UNITED STATES

The impact of US trade barriers and demand factors on import prices of Canadian softwood lumber is examined using time series analysis of quarterly data from 1989–2006. The results suggest that the previous quarter import price of softwood lumber, US producer price, and US housing starts, and the current quarter US producer price of softwood lumber have significant impacts on the import price of Canadian softwood lumber with 0.69, 1.92, 0.10 and ?1.64 as respective elasticities. Among trade barriers examined, a softwood quota raises the import price but a high tariff lowers it.     

Banks' Efficiency and Stock Prices in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Malaysia

ABSTRACT

This paper empirically investigates the X-efficiency and P-efficiencies of Malaysian banks listed in the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) during 2002–2003 by applying a non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method. We find that during the period of study, the X-efficiency of Malaysian listed banks was on average significantly higher compared to the P-efficiencies. The P-inefficiency was largely due to inefficient production of profits rather than the wrong scale of operations. Our results also suggest that the large banking groups were on average more X-efficient whereas the smaller banking groups were found to be more P-efficient. We further link the X-efficiency and P-efficiency to the respective banks' share prices and find that the stock prices of Malaysian banks react more towards the improvements in P-efficiency rather than the improvements in X-efficiency.     

Price equivalent tariffs and quotas under a domestic monopoly

Price-equivalent import tariffs and quotas are compared when domestic production is controlled by a monopolist, say an agricultural marketing board with the power to restrict domestic supply, under endogenous terms of trade. Welfare comparisons boil down to sourcing costs comparisons. Quotas tend to dominate at high domestic prices, ad valorem tariffs at intermediate prices and specific tariffs at low domestic prices. Welfare maxima are achieved with more restrictive policies than under perfect competition. These results rationalize separate negotiations for sensitive products in the Doha Round and the setting of tariff-rate quotas that mimic import quotas for these products. Finally, in ascertaining the robustness of our policy ranking to the choice of variable anchoring the comparisons, we found that specific tariffs unambiguously dominate ad valorem tariffs and quotas when government revenue or imports anchor the comparisons. However, some quota revenues and import levels cannot be achieved with tariffs.     

Demand Analysis of Meat in Malaysia

One distinct change in Malaysians' food consumption behavior has been the preference toward meat products. Thus it is meaningful to gain insight of meat consumption patterns. As the market becomes increasingly market-led, information on current meat consumption patterns is required to assess how they are likely to change as prices and incomes change. This study attempts to provide a better understanding of demand for meat products in Malaysia. By utilizing data from Household Expenditure Survey 2004/2005, Engel curve analysis was conducted to derive income elasticities of meat products from QUAIDS model. The estimated income elasticities show that current food consumption patterns are showing signs of convergence toward a Western diet, exhibiting tendency for preference toward red meats (mutton and beef) over white meats (poultry and pork). The estimated elastic own-price elasticities indicate that Malaysian consumers are sensitive to the change in prices of the meat products, with other things remain constant.     

Social Marketing of a Fortified Staple Food at Scale: Generating Demand for Fortified Rice in Brazil

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the social marketing strategy implemented by PATH and GAIN to create a sustainable market for rice fortification in Brazil and develop a replicable model relevant to other geographies. It draws on market research on consumer attitudes and practices, as well as key demand and consumer metrics before and after execution of the social marketing campaign in Brazil. This marketing endeavor succeeded in establishing the viability of introducing fortified rice in a country through a purely market-based approach. Whereas social marketing is vital to the introduction and scale-up of fortified staple foods through commercial markets, it is not sufficient to achieve meaningful scale and sustainability. Engagement from the public and social sectors, clear governance, and other factors are critical to substantial and long-term impact. Lessons from this first attempt to introduce a fortified staple food through a market-based approach are relevant to similar initiatives elsewhere.     

Food Labels’ Impact Assessment on Consumer Purchasing Behavior in Malaysia

The purpose of this study is to validate the impact of food labels among Malaysian consumers using an extended theory of planned behavior model (TPB). In doing so, the study assessed the direct and indirect effect of food labeling on consumer intention to purchase or otherwise the food products of interest. A stratified random sampling technique was adopted in selecting 2,014 consumers in Klang Valley, Malaysia. The results of structural equation modeling supported the adequacy of the proposed model. This study contributes to and extends the understanding of food labeling and purchasing behavior, identifying the rationales for purchasing of food products with labels that contains information such as halal logo, ingredients, and nutritive value.     

Food security and government interventions: A study of Indian grain markets

Abstract

This study examines the future of Indian food security in light of possible liberalization of its agriculture sector. Demand for major food grains such as wheat and rice is projected after taking into account possible dietary changes due to income growth, urbanization and other demographic changes. Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) indicators are constructed to predict changes in supply patterns in the case of reduced government intervention. The projected demand growth suggests faster increases in per capita wheat consumption due to strong income growth and urbanization whereas per capita rice consumption is projected to level off in the next few years and then will likely decline steadily for the remainder of the projection period. This indicates that Indian wheat production may need to grow at a much faster rate than rice production in order to remain self-sufficient in the future. Based on the PAM ranking, this may be possible under reduced or no government interventions because of the comparative advantage of wheat over rice in the major growing regions.     

进口贸易视域下国际粮价对国内粮价的传导路径--来自玉米和大豆的证据

基于玉米和大豆等粮食国际、国内价格历史数据,运用协整及误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数等方法,揭示国际粮价对国内粮价的传导作用及影响路径。理论分析表明,国际粮价通过进口直接路径、进口产品成本路径和进口替代路径等三个子路径传导至国内粮价。实证检验发现,国际大豆价格进口直接路径和进口产品成本路径传导均比较充分,即国际大豆价格会影响大豆进口价格,进而影响国内大豆价格,最终影响国内豆油价格;国际玉米价格进口直接路径和进口产品成本路径传导则不充分,国际玉米价格会影响玉米进口价格,但是对国内玉米价格和国内玉米淀粉价格影响程度较低;而在进口替代路径中,玉米和大豆的国际价格传导均不充分。我国应继续推进以提质增效为目标的农业供给侧结构性改革,加大粮食生产科技投入力度,调动农民种粮积极性,集中力量提高粮食供给质量和效率;坚持粮食进口仅为调剂国内供求余缺的方针,把握粮食安全的主动权;建立健全粮食市场的价格调控体系及风险防控体系,规避国际粮食市场剧烈波动对国内粮食市场的影响。     

Import Demand Elasticity and Exporter Response to Anti-Dumping Duties

ABSTRACT

This article investigates exporting firms’ behavior following the imposition of anti-dumping (AD) duties. AD duties tend to increase the prices of imported goods via a mechanism different from any other trade barrier because the AD duty size is endogenously dependent on import prices. Our model accounts for this feature and demonstrates that exporters are more likely to adjust their price upward when they face a less elastic demand. The theoretical predictions are supported empirically by relating product-level U.S. import demand elasticities and exporting firms’ reactions to duties inferred from a dataset on U.S. AD investigations from 1980 to 1995.     

Supplier-Retailer Relationships in Grocery Distribution in Malaysia: Indications of Dominance,Conflict, and Cooperation

ABSTRACT

This exploratory study sets out to assess the presence of dominance, conflict and cooperation in channel relationships between grocery suppliers and retailers in Malaysia. There have been extensive studies on these channel issues in markets of developed countries but very little is known in markets of developing countries such as Malaysia. The initial assessment identifies traces of dominance, conflict and cooperation in the Malaysian channel environment. The findings suggest that the retailers perceive the suppliers as being more in control of the grocery distribution channels as indicated by the extent of influence they exert on channel functioning. The suppliers also acknowledged their roles in channel functioning as they felt that most channel issues are within their control. There also appears to be evidence of relationship characteristics identical to aspects of relationship marketing.     

The Life Cycle Model as a Framework for Understanding Barriers to SME Growth in Hong Kong

There is limited research on turnaround in the Asian context, particularly from a contextual perspective. This article reports the findings of an exploratory study of turnaround strategies and management at the level of the firm in Malaysia using a case study approach. The contextual impact along dimensions such as different ethnic/cultural background, ownership types and role of government has been examined in seven case studies of Malaysian firms. The findings reveal some differences among the firms, as well as turnaround characteristics similar to those reported in recent literature on East Asian versus western turnaround. These findings are discussed and propositions for future research made.     

追加配额后棉花进口对我国棉花产业的影响及规律——以华北地区为例

文章主要从棉花价格、棉农收益和棉花收购企业三方面分析追加棉花进口配额对我国棉花产业的影响,进而得出其形成的规律:配额发放两个月后,国内市场价格开始下降;追加配额的时间和数量决定价格下降幅度;滑准税率下,关税配额的管理方法更能起到保护国棉的作用.针对影响及规律,提出在WTO框架下,采取积极措施应对棉花进口对国内棉花产业造成的冲击.     

Transmission of Rice Prices from Thailand into West African Markets: The Case of Benin,Mali, and Senegal

ABSTRACT

The integration of West African rice market to the world market is assessed in order to derive the implication for food security. To this end, the transmission of rice price changes on the world market to selected markets in West Africa was examined to test for the presence of transaction costs. Using the two-regime threshold cointegration procedure on monthly price data, evidence in support of the hypothesis of asymmetric price transmission was found between Thailand and some West African markets. Price increases on the world market were more quickly transmitted to domestic price than were price decreases in Benin and Mali, suggesting short-run dynamic inefficiencies and the presence of transaction costs. In Senegal, the adjustment was linear, suggesting greater integration with the world rice market. The results suggest that West African governments should design and implement adequate policies to develop the domestic rice sector, improve market infrastructures in order to reduce their country dependency to international markets and ensure food security.     

Simulating Economic Development in Transformation Economies

Abstract

The purpose of the game described in this paper is to help students understand the impact of various strategies of government intervention on the dynamic free-market processes stimulating economic development. The game simulates three developing economies. Within the economies, each of the students represents an independent economic entity, able to contribute labor, consume goods, and acquire wealth. The game is played in periods, with each one representing a cycle of production and consumption. In one economy, students are free to act independently, or to collaborate, to invest or save money, to innovate or produce conventional products. In the other two, their activities are constrained by “government” regulations, simulating contrasting strategies of import substitution and export promotion. In the end, students are evaluated according to the wealth they create. The three simulated economies provide experiential evidence as a basis for discussing the relative merits of unfettered free enterprise, import substitution, and export promotion as contrasting strategies of economic development.     

Cash Management of Malaysian Banks

ABSTRACT

This study aims to identify seasonal variations in the form of day of the week, month of the year, and time of the month effects on the demand and supply of cash based on daily cash data obtained from a sample of banks in Malaysia. This information would increase the efficiency of vault cash management policies of banks, which would in turn increase the profitability of banks since the degree to which banks optimize their vault cash holding has revenue and cost implications. These seasonal effects have been tested using the one-way ANOVA technique, and the findings revealed that the demand for general cash among Malaysian banks has been on the decline throughout the years due to the introduction of new channels of delivery. There was also sufficient statistical evidence, though to varying extent, that indicates the presence of month of the year and time of the month effects on bank's demand for and supply of cash.     

Effects of Export Duty Structure on the Performance of the Malaysian Palm Oil Industry

This study examines the impact of the abatement of the export duty on the Malaysian palm oil industry performance. The simulation results show that the impact of reductions in the export duty rates and the impact of increases in the threshold prices on the Malaysian palm oil industry have the same impact but with different magnitudes. Even the simulated results indicate that the policy of further reductions in the Malaysian export duty will promote its positive effects on the local palm oil industry; however, the impact is shown to not be significant. The further reduction of the export tax is very constrained and believed to no longer be the most effective policy in enhancing the competitiveness of local palm oil industry in the future. Hence, policymakers have to be aware of the possibility that the reduction of the export tax may no longer be an effective sustainable approach in facilitating the development of Malaysian palm oil industry.     

Political economy of the US–Mexican tomato trade agreement

We develop a political economy model to analyse the US–Mexican tomato trade agreement by treating the minimum import price as a negotiated settlement. We incorporate the special characteristics of the US–Mexican tomato dispute, namely trade among large countries, the role of competing fresh and processed tomato lobbies, quota revenues accruing to Mexican producers, bargaining for a minimum import price rather than a tariff, and the role of the Canadian tomato market. We show the importance of the size of the lobby group's supply, the weight elected officials' place on national welfare, and the elasticities of export supply and import demand in determining the optimal price wedge. For the United States, larger fresh tomato or cherry–grape tomato supply intensifies the degree of protection awarded to US growers, while US processors work to mitigate this effect. From Mexico's perspective, larger Mexican fresh or cherry–grape output induces a push towards free trade due to the agreement's depressing effect on Mexican prices, while Mexican processors and quota revenues exacerbate the price wedge.