Buying real options - Valuing uncertainty in infrastructure planning

For the last two decades real options thinking has been heralded as a new approach for handling uncertainty in investment decisions. However, application of the approach in infrastructure investment decision-making is negligible thus far. In this contribution we address the question: what are the barriers for the implementation of the real option approach (ROA) in practice? We focus on the experiences in several infrastructure-bound sectors: spatial planning and transport, ports, and energy.We conclude that the ROA maturity levels of these different sectors are quite different, and we ascribe these differences to the political setting, the institutional setting and the organisational flexibility of the sectors and their stakeholders. We suggest that the same issues apply to other advanced, quantitative methods.     

The determinants of contractual choice for private involvement in infrastructure projects

Numerous studies have examined the determinants of private participation in infrastructure projects. We depart from this simple public/private dichotomy by empirically examining a rich set of contractual arrangements. Infrastructure characteristics, particularly those that reflect ‘stand alone’ versus network characteristics, are key factors influencing the extent of private participation. Fiscal variables as well as basic controls, such as population and locality of government, increase the degree of private participation. A greater tax burden reduces private participation.     

Evaluation of infrastructure planning approaches: An analogy with medicine

This paper discusses the evaluation of new infrastructure planning approaches. These new planning approaches have been put forward in response to the challenges of deep uncertainty about the future. These approaches emphasize the need for flexibility of the system in order to enable the plan to adapt to changing conditions. However, these adaptive approaches up till now have seen little real word applications. One important reason for this lack of application is that the efficacy of these approaches has not been established yet. In turn, this is largely due to the problem that there is no agreed upon method for proving the efficacy of a new planning approach. In this paper, we will draw an analogy to medical research and development in order to outline a methodology for establishing the efficacy of new planning approaches. We discuss how the well-established methodology for evaluation new medical treatments can be adapted to evaluating new planning approaches. We illustrate the resulting evaluation methodology by outlining an evaluation strategy for a specific new planning approach. It is concluded that the well-established methodology from medicine can successfully be used to inform the evaluation of infrastructure planning approaches.     

Understanding the motivations of long-term care insurance owners: the importance of retirement planning

This article is based on two recent reports by the American Council of Life Insurers (ACLI) that illuminate the reasons why individuals purchase private long-term care insurance in both the group and individual markets. This information suggests that a younger and more diverse group of individuals are becoming increasingly interested in private long-term care insurance and that workplace education linkage the purchase of long-term care insurance to retirement planning may promote coverage.     

Understanding the intergenerational transmission of cherished possessions: Insights for estate planning,trust officers and other end-of-life professionals

In order to survive in today's increasingly competitive marketplace, retail banks must focus on emphasising relationships and must personalise service interactions, differentiating their organisation. Trust departments have an opportunity to build credibility and gain a competitive advantage by expanding the scope of advice given, and in doing so can build intergenerational business with spouses, children and grandchildren. Recent research suggests that the conflicts resulting from estate settlements are on the increase and are commonly due to the disposition of possessions, not financial assets that can often be easily divided. In this paper the authors focus specifically on how professionals dealing with end of life issues can better understand the phenomena of cherished possessions. The managerial implications of this research can have a profound impact on financial service providers and their ability to build loyalty and to increase customer retention.     

Standards in transitions: Catalyzing infrastructure change

Infrastructures are difficult to change in response to new societal demands. They are entrenched, materially and socio-institutionally, and seem to be ‘locked-in’. Scholars have addressed this problem by, for example, devising strategies for de-entrenchment, alternative path creation and transition management that focus on the process of change (emphasis on ‘how’). In this paper, we take a novel and counterintuitive approach, and focus on standards as a starting point for change (emphasis on ‘what’). We analyze in what manner standards can play a catalyzing role in infrastructure transitions and which standards characteristics facilitate in doing so.Central to our framework are the concepts of gateway technology and compatibility. We analyze three cases, i.e., the modal shift in freight container transport; the transition from barcode to Radio Frequency Identifier (RFID); and the possibility of a Dutch energy transition from natural gas to hydrogen.The article concludes that standards can catalyze infrastructure transitions if, first, their content well-reflects relevant stakeholder interests; and, second, if standard specifications are simple and performance-oriented. Their impact is highest in stable markets and for expanding infrastructures. Under these conditions standards can exploit the forces of entrenchment and socio-technical lock-in to bring about change.     

金融行业关键信息基础设施发展趋势——基于数据中心机房基础设施建设的情况分析

随着我国经济的高速发展,金融行业对关键信息处理运作的数据中心数量也在急剧增长,规模日益庞大。从早期的单个机房,到如今多中心架构的大型、超大型数据中心,基础设施规模及数量呈爆发性增长。数据中心建设成本高、运行能耗高和管理难度大等问题亟待解决。金融数据中心需要不断寻求更新的技术、更好的架构和更佳的运营理念,在安全稳定运行的基础上,进一步追求“绿色节能”与“智能运维”,降低建设与运营成本,简化运维操作管理难度,快速响应业务需求。     

Student management consulting projects in the accounting curriculum

Management consulting projects can be used as the capstone educational experience to provide students with the opportunity to solve actual management problems. A management consulting project gives students the opportunity to develop and test their skills in identification of problem, development of a study methodology, gathering of data, communication of results, and in the management of a consulting project.Establishing a management consulting project course involves consideration of many different issues. The significant ones include selection of students and projects, characteristics of projects, and a seminar in consulting.     

Attracting private sector participation in infrastructure investment: the UK case

This article examines the potential for private sector organizations to contribute to public sector innovation. Specifically, the study explores how partnering with the private sector can go beyond delivery and extend to development of new services and new markets. The term ‘commercialization partnership’ is coined for such partnerships and the article describes an exploratory investigation of this emerging form of innovation.     

首批创业板项目状况如何

近期首批创业板项目是财经焦点，那么，首批创业板项目状况怎样？如：券商分布状况；企业性质及股权结构的分布有哪些特点？股本规模分布有哪些特点？营业规模状况如何？     

Understanding the financial crisis in Asia

The financial crisis of East Asia in 1997 was largely unanticipated and was characterized by sharp falls in asset prices and currency values in several countries simultaneously. Many empirical models have been developed to predict the occurrence of such crisis. However, the out-of-sample performance of these models is disappointing. Most theoretical explanations of the crisis emphasize the role of banking sector and revolve around models of moral hazard or self-fulfilling runs on liquidity. Empirical tests of the models are, however, rare. Much work remains to be done to explain the contagion, and the effects of equity capital flows.     

Understanding the changes in accounting thought

Financial accounting and reporting are in the midst of one of the most significant revolutionary changes in modern history. The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework that will contribute to the dialogue surrounding these developments. We use Kuhn’s [Kuhn, T. S. (1970). The structure of scientific revolutions. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press] framework on the theory of scientific revolution to describe how changes in the need for information, coupled with the lack of relevant accounting information, led to reporting anomalies that have spurred a revolutionary shift in accounting paradigms. We are moving from an accounting paradigm that existed in the age of an industrial economy to an accounting paradigm that fits the economy in an information age. This redirection has resulted in the following: a change in the conceptualization and application of relevance and reliability, an increased use of fair value versus historical cost measurements, a renewed emphasis on principles versus rules, and an evaluation of the composition of the basic financial statements.     

Delphi in the assessment of research and development projects

Used as a means of communication between specialists of different backgrounds concerned with the same r and d project, the Delphi technique allows one to establish the typology of the opinions of sub-groups within the panel; this is often more interesting than simply determining the consensus to which the method generally leads. Factorial analysis treatment of the results of a Delphi study undertaken in 1970–1971 about the prospects for artificial hearts gives an example of such a typology and leads to a definition of some of the less known characteristics of the method : the dynamic character of opinion interaction and not simply the convergence of dissenting viewpoints and the substitution of the individual's logical consistency and coherence by that of the group. As a means of dialogue between decision maker and research specialists, the method favours free circulation and focusing of opinions and motivations towards building the future in a certain way.     

Valuation in development projects: Enlarging the analytical framework

The analytical models adopted to guide decision making in many development agencies are inherently biased. In using market values to decide the worth of things, these approaches are systematically biased against the interests of the poor. In assuming that value can be assessed objectively, they are blind to the reality that different parties value the same things differently. Thus they have little use for broad participation in the construction of reality. Indeed, by failing to acknowledge and address conflict forthrightly, they deny politics. There are better ways of seeing things.     

Long-range planning in the public sector

This article discusses suitable frameworks for long-range planning in the public sector. Specific attention is devoted to defence planning, because of the impact planning methodology in defence has had on other government sectors. Operations research, programme budgeting, and scenario techniques are cases in point. A number of different planning approaches are outlined, but the difficulty of transferring planning systems between different fields of application is emphasised. Even if programme budgeting is thought of as a long-range planning system, additional components and approaches, such as various types of futures studies, may be needed.     

Understanding the Restatement Process

Much research examines investors' reactions to restatements and the effects of restatements on chief executive officer (CEO), chief financial officer (CFO), and auditor turnover; however, little research explores the process of restating financial reports. In this study, we investigate the process of issuing a restatement. We specifically focus on the interactions among the parties involved (e.g., CFO, board, audit committee, audit partner, and regulators) in determining and ultimately resolving a restatement, as well as the impact of the restatement on the relationships among these parties. We investigate the restatement process via semi‐structured interviews. We immersed ourselves in the restatement process by interviewing all parties typically involved, such as CFOs, auditors, and regulators. Given the findings in the auditor–client management negotiation area, which suggest that negotiation of accounting treatment and disclosure is frequent, our findings indicate that negotiations and/or difficult discussions take place among the parties involved when determining whether a restatement is necessary as well as in achieving the ultimate restatement outcome. Our findings (based on a small sample) suggest that the restatement process may influence or be influenced by such factors as the nature of the misstatement, the party that identified the misstatement, the reaction of the various parties to the misstatement, disagreement among the parties on whether to restate, communication with the regulator, the press release, client size, the personality of the CFO, audit committee strength, and the relationships among the parties subsequent to the restatement.     

Conflict variables in world simulations

World modellers have neglected social and political variables in their model building, basically because of problems of quantification. Instead they have treated these factors as exogenous, which has permitted a less rigorous approach to the relationship between their inputs and the real world. Here the author introduces two sociopolitical variables—conflict and centralisation—into Forrester's World 2 model, and Boyd's modified World 2, and compares the results of a series of computer runs with the results obtained from the original models. While the propositions linking these two variables to others in the World 2 model are largely hypothetical, the stability of the modified model suggests that these linkages are authentic—and that the study's findings concerning the effect of conflict upon the world system are valid.     

Understanding the inventory cycle

Careful examination of aggregate data from the U.S. and other OECD countries reveals that production and inventory behavior exhibit paradoxical features: (1) Inventory investment is strongly countercyclical at very high frequencies (e.g., 2-3 quarters per cycle); it is procyclical only at relatively low-cyclical frequencies such as the business-cycle frequencies (e.g., 8-40 quarters per cycle). (2) Production is less volatile than sales around the high frequencies; it is more volatile than sales only around business-cycle or lower frequencies. (3) Unlike capital investment or GDP, the bulk of the variance of inventory investment is concentrated around high frequencies rather than around business-cycle frequencies. These features of production and inventory behavior at the low and high frequencies provide a litmus test for inventory theories. This paper shows that the stockout-avoidance theory [Kahn, J., 1987. Inventories and the volatility of production. American Economic Review 77, 667-679.] has much better potential than other competing theories for explaining the seemingly paradoxical features of inventory fluctuations observed at different cyclical frequencies. My analysis suggests that demand shocks are the main source of the business cycle.     

The causal,linear and nonlinear nexus between sectoral FDI and infrastructure in Pakistan: Using a new global infrastructure index

This study explores the causal, linear, and nonlinear relationship between sectoral level foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and infrastructure (transport, telecommunication, financial, and energy sectors) of Pakistan. Granger causality and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration; suggest the presence of long-run bidirectional causality between infrastructure and FDI, while the nonlinear ARDL affirms the asymmetries in this connection. Results suggest that sectoral FDI inflows are important to enhance infrastructure in various sectors, both in the short and long-run. As improving infrastructure is vital to attracting FDI, results will be particularly useful to policymakers concerned about emerging markets.