TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS AND POPULATION GROWTH: DO WE HAVE TOO FEW CHILDREN?

Do we have too few children? We intend to address this question. In developed countries, the fertility rate has declined since WWII. This may cause a slowdown in the growth of GDP in developed countries. However, important factors for the well‐being of individuals are per capita variables, like per capita growth and per capita consumption. In turn, the rate of technological progress determines the growth rates of per capita variables. If the population size is increasing, the labour inputs for R&D activity increase, and thus speed up technological progress. As individuals do not take account of this positive effect when deciding on the number of their own children, the number of children may become smaller than the socially optimal number of children. However, an increase in the number of children reduces the assets any one child owns: that is, there is a capital dilution effect. This works in the opposite direction. We examine this issue using an endogenous growth model where the head of a dynastic family decides the number of children.     

Research Subsidies, Population Control Policies, and Growth

Several R&D‐based growth models without scale effects claim that subsidies to R&D are not conductive for economic growth while a faster growing population is. Yet, in an effort to maintain high growth rates, most OECD countries continue to subsidize R&D, while several developing countries are trying to control the size of their population. Are these countries misguided? This study introduces an R&D‐based growth model that is characterized by complementarities between technology and human capital. The model is free of scale effects and consistent with the above‐mentioned policies. By applying the model to US data the study uncovers a possible explanation for the productivity slowdown.     

Population growth and economic and social development

This article sets forth 3 positions on population growth: 1) rapid population growth is a central development problem that implies lower living standards for the poor; 2) proposals for reducing population growth raise difficult questions about the proper domain of public policy, yet it is acceptable for governments to attempt to influence private decisions about family size; and 3) the experience in many developing countries shows that quick, effective measures can be taken to reduce fertility. Rapid population growth has slowed development because it exacerbates the difficult choice between higher consumption in the present and the investment needed to bring higher consumption in the future. As populations grow, larger investments are needed just to maintain current capital/person. It further threatens the balance between natural resources and people and creates severe economic and social problems in urban areas. Public policy must provide alternative ways for poor families to secure the benefits provided by large family size. That is, governments need to provide tangible evidence that it really is in the best interests of parents to have fewer children. Also required is greater infomation about and access to fertility control. When family planning services have been widespread and affordable, fertility has decline faster than social and economic progress alone would predict. There is a need for immediate action to improve women's status and to make education, family planning, and primary health care more available. Although economic and social progress help to slow population growth, rapid population growth hinders development. Thus, governments must act simultaneously on both fronts. Accumulating evidence on population growth in developing countries shows that is the combination of social development and family planning that reduces fertility.     

Population policy: do we need it? Prospects and problems

A 1983 report by the Whitsun Foundation called upon the Government of Zimbabwe to recognize the urgent nature of that country's population problem and to devise and implement a comprehensive population policy aimed at reducing morbidity and mortality among women and children, reducing the population growth rate, and reducing the fertility level. This article challenges the Whitsun Foundation's view that population pressure is the primary cause of poverty in Zimbabwe and that family planning is a feasible remedy. It is argued instead that poverty in Zimbabwe can be traced to capitalist development policies that have removed from rural people the means to produce their own subsistence. More important that large-scale birth control programs are radical structural and institutional changes aimed at achieving social and economic progress and directly attacking poverty, unemployment, and inequality. Those countries where marked declines in birth rates have been achieved have usually been those that spread the benefits of development throughout their populations. Moreover, the Whitsun report implies that there is no family planning program in Zimbabwe. In fact, in 1982, an estimated 200,000 people received contraception through the Child Spacing and Fertility Association of Zimbabwe's program. It is unlikely that an expanded birth control program and educational campaign to persuade the rural and urban poor to practice family planning will be effective. Policy makers will have to address the cynicism brought about by the colonial regimes' genocidal efforts in the 1960s and 1970s to introduce birth control measures.     

Income Tax, Property Tax, and Tariff in a Small Open Economy

Why do some countries enjoy high economic growth rates while some suffer in “low-growth traps”? Why are tax policies in different countries so different? Some suggest that it is exactly these differences in government policies which contribute to the difference in economic growth rates. This paper considers a small open economy which sustains its economic growth by adopting new technologies. When the value of initial wealth is “relatively small,” policies which promote growth most result in the highest welfare. In other cases, policies that discourage growth most may be welfare-maximizing.     

寻找阿基米德的"杠杆"-"出生季度"是个弱工具变量吗?

AK91用出生季度作工具变量估计教育回报率,在引起众多质疑的同时,也推动了微观经济计量学的一个活跃领域——探讨弱工具问题。本文使用2005年中国人口1%抽样调查数据,重新讨论了教育回报率的2SLS估计中,出生季度是否为弱工具变量问题:在发达国家,完成高中阶段教育者在队列人口中比例过高,导致出生季度对教育变异的影响很小,因此,出生季度可能是个弱工具变量;在发展中国家,能够进入高中阶段学习者,在队列人口中不到一半,出生季度对教育变异的影响很大,因此,是个强工具变量。重新估计的结果显示,2SLS估计及其改进形式得到的教育系数显著高于OLS估计值。除了数据质量,模型误设可能是AK91遭遇弱工具的另一个原因。     

Theoretical problems of demographic policy in the USSR

The recent emphasis in the USSR on long-range economic and social planning, as well as the country's current demographic situation, necessitates the adoption of demographic policies to create the type of population reproduction which is in the longterm interest of the society. Socioeconomic policies may have bothnegative and positive effects on demographic processes, and these effects may be delayed for 25 years or more. In the past, when economic and social plans covered only 5-year periods, the impact of these plans on demographic factors could be ignored. In longterm planning these consequences cannot be ignored. Population policies must address the longterm consequences of socioeconomic development, the regional variations in population parameters, and the complexities of the relationship between demographic and socioeconomic factors. As socialist societies evolve they eventually reach a stage where it is necessary to develop a theory and a methodolgy for managing demographic processes. The development of appropriate demographic goals and policies will require the cooperation of not only demographers, but of medical professionals, sociologists, and economists. The initial tasks of a goal oriented population program should be to stabilize the birth rate, to prevent further declines in fertility rates, to increase life expectancy to its biological limits, to reduce death rates, to equalize regional living standards, to control immigration, and to improve resettlement programs. Eventually policymakers must address the problem of developing an optimal and uniform level of reproduction for the nation as a whole. An organization structure, both at the national and regional level for developing and implementing the population program must be specified. Regional programs must be coordinated at the national level and developed in accordance with national goals.     

On Nations’ Size and Transportation Costs*

This paper develops a noncooperative Nash model in which a closed border is opened to trade between countries that differ in size and transportation costs. the paper suggests an explanation as to why economists have not convinced policymakers to lift all barriers to free trade. the questions we pose are: Who will gain as a result of opening the borders? Is free trade beneficial to the two parties involved? Do they both share equally in the fruits of free trade? Which country, large or small, benefits most? It is shown that free trade is not beneficial to both countries.     

中印承接国际服务外包的比较优势分析

现代服务业是人力资本密集型的行业,但为什么像中国与印度这样的发展中国家却承接了大量的国际服务外包,通过比较服务外包承接国的人力资本禀赋以及分析人力资本与国际服务外包的相关性,发现中国与印度在国际服务外包中的比较优势取决于该国熟练劳动力的绝对数量,而不是熟练劳动力在该国总劳动力数量中的相对比例.这也是印度与中国这样的人口大国能够成为主要服务外包承接国的原因之一.     

The efficiency of social public expenditure in European countries: a two-stage analysis

Do European countries differ in the efficiency of their welfare policies? And which factors can account for such variability? To address these questions, we perform a two-stage efficiency analysis. First, based on a composite output indicator for social protection expenditure, we measure efficiency by means of the Free Disposable Hull and Data Envelopment Analysis techniques. Second, we perform an econometric analysis to identify the factors that can be associated to cross-country differences. We find that countries scoring higher efficiency have higher education and GDP levels, a smaller population size, a lower degree of selectivity of their welfare systems and a lower corruption level.     

人口和计划生育利益导向政策研究:回顾与前瞻

人口和计划生育利益导向政策的发展经历了从最初简单的节育手术等节制生育的服务措施,到明确将利益导向政策上升到国家制度层面,再到全面建设和发展利益导向政策体系的几个重要阶段。随着计划生育政策目标由降低生育率向稳定低生育水平、统筹解决人口问题、实现人口长期均衡发展的转变,利益导向方法、手段与措施的不断丰富与拓展,人口和计划生育利益导向政策也面临着人口和计划生育利益导向政策的科学评估、普惠政策与利益导向政策协调机制的建立与完善、人口长期均衡发展背景下计划生育利益导向政策走向的明确等-系列新的研究课题。     

The role of institutions and immigrant networks in firms’ offshoring decisions

The offshoring of production by firms has expanded dramatically in recent decades, increasing their potential for economic growth. What determines the location of offshore production? How do countries’ policies and characteristics affect a firm's decision about where to offshore? Do firms choose specific countries because of the countries’ policies or because they know them better? In this paper, we use a rich dataset on Danish firms to analyze how decisions to offshore production depend on the institutional characteristics of the country and firm-specific bilateral networks. We find that institutions that reduce credit risk and corruption increase the probability that firms will offshore there, while those that increase regulation in the labour market decrease this probability. We also show that a firm's probability of offshoring increases with the share of its employees who are immigrants from that country of origin. Finally, our analysis reveals that the negative impact of institutions that hinder offshoring is attenuated by a strong bilateral network of foreign workers.     

Fiscal consolidations and electoral outcomes in emerging economies: Does the policy mix matter? Macro and micro level evidence from Latin America

Do voters punish governments that introduce fiscal “austerity” measures? If so, does voter response vary according to the composition of fiscal adjustments? The empirical literature on the political economy of fiscal adjustments, which is mostly OECD-based, argues that consolidations do not have significant electoral consequences. In contrast, we find that voters punish fiscal consolidations at the polls in Latin America. To explain this result, we focus on the way fiscal adjustments episodes are implemented, both in terms of their design (taxes vs. spending) and timing. Such episodes rely fundamentally on increasing tax rates and bases of indirect taxes (such as the VAT) that hit broad segments of the population. Moreover, these policies are often implemented when politicians have no choice but to consolidate, that is, under severe economic circumstances. These macro results are corroborated with micro evidence from an original survey experiment that measures voter’s fiscal policy preferences over the business cycle in seven countries across Latin America. The experimental evidence shows that respondents prefer expenditure cuts to tax increases during downturns, which is the opposite of the type of consolidations that countries typically pursue.     

Effect of social security on fertility and savings: an overlapping generations model

Old-age pension schemes do not exist in most developing countries, so adults bear children as security investments for the future. This phenomenon leads to unduly high rates of population growth. It has been hypothesized that introducing social security programs in such countries would increase savings rates and reduce the number of children born over the long term. The author studies the general equilibrium effects of some social security programs on rates of population growth and capital accumulation within an overlapping generations framework with endogenous fertility and savings. Specifically, Raul's overlapping generations growth model is extended to study the general equilibrium effects of payroll-tax-financed and child-tax-financed social security programs. It is shown that if the rate of intergenerational income transfers from young to old or child care cost is low, competitive equilibrium leads toward overpopulation and capital accumulation in a modified Pareto optimal sense; a social security program in such a case is therefore Pareto improving. A fully-funded system is not neutral when financed by child taxes. Finally, it is also shown that unlike in the case of exogenous fertility where competitive equilibrium attains steady state only asymptotically, fertility, when endogenous, may attain a unique globally steady state in finite time.     

The demographic transition revisited: lessons for foreign aid and U.S. immigration policy.

"The completed demographic transitions in industrialized countries inspired a model which underlies many well-meant policies affecting the Third World. However, the model's postulate--modernization and prosperity will lower fertility rates--has exacerbated rather than helped control worldwide population growth and the associated environmental degradation. Here we show that perceived economic opportunity leads to raising family size targets and to discarding elements of traditional cultures which formerly held fertility rates in check. Conversely, fertility rates fall when limits are recognized. These observations imply that a liberal immigration policy and large-scale foreign aid are counterproductive for restoring balance between population size and carrying capacity."     

The Sahel: A Malthusian Challenge?

The population of the least developed countries of the Sahel will more than triple from 100 million to 340 million by 2050, and new research projects that today’s extreme temperatures will become the norm by mid-century. The region is characterized by poverty, illiteracy, weak infrastructure, failed states, widespread conflict, and an abysmal status of women. Scenarios beyond 2050 demonstrate that, without urgent and significant action today, the Sahel could become the first part of planet earth that suffers large-scale starvation and escalating conflict as a growing human population outruns diminishing natural resources. National governments and the international community can do a great deal to ameliorate this unfolding disaster if they put in place immediate policies and investments to help communities adapt to climate change, make family planning realistically available, and improve the status of girls and women. Implementing evidence-based action now will be an order of magnitude more humane and cost-effective than confronting disaster later. However, action will challenge some long held development paradigms of economists, demographers, and humanitarian organizations. If the crisis unfolding in the Sahel can help bridge the current intellectual chasm between the economic commitment to seemingly endless growth and the threat seen by some biologists and ecologists that human activity is bringing about irreversible damage to the biosphere, then it may be possible also to begin to solve this same formidable problem at a global level.     

African elephants: the effect of property rights and political stability

African elephant populations have declined by more than 50% over the past 20 years. International outrage over the slaughter led to a worldwide ban on ivory sales beginning in 1989, despite the objections of many economists and scientists, and of several southern African countries that have established systems of property rights over elephants. Far from declining, elephant populations in many of these countries have increased to levels at or above the carrying capacity of the ecosystem. This article estimates the determinants of changes in elephant populations in 35 African countries over several time periods. The authors find that, controlling for other factors, countries with property rights systems of community wildlife programs have more rapid elephant population growth rates than do those countries that do not. Political instability and the absence of representative governments significantly lower elephant growth rates.     

An African Growth Trap: Production Technology and the Time-Consistency of Agricultural Taxation, R&D and Investment

Why do so many African governments consistently impose high tax rates and make little investment in productive public goods, when alternative policies could yield greater tax revenues and higher national income? The authors posit and test an intertemporal political economy model in which the government sets tax and R&D levels while investors respond with production. Equilibrium policy and growth rates depend on the initial cost structure. It is found that in many (but not all) African countries, low tax/high investment regimes would be time‐inconsistent, primarily because production technology requires relatively large sunk costs. For pro‐growth policies to become sustainable, new political commitment mechanisms or new production techniques would be needed.     

Why peg? The role of capital mobility and financial intermediation

Many economists argue that the growth of international capital mobility has made the maintenance of pegged exchange rates more costly, forcing developing states to choose alternative arrangements. But some states do not simply abandon pegged exchange rates as their exposure to capital mobility rises. Some states abandon pegs long before a crisis can erupt, while others maintain pegs until the speculative pressures became unbearable. Why, in an environment of growing capital mobility, do some states maintain pegs longer than others do? One reason is that the more that bank lending dominates investment in a country, the more likely that state is to hold on to a pegged exchange rate. When banks have accumulated significant amounts of foreign debt they lobby for exchange rate stability. In a bank‐dominated financial system, a concentrated banking sector can organize easily and use its crucial role in the economy to exert influence over economic policy. This article presents new evidence from statistical tests on 61 developing countries that confirm that states with deeper banking systems are more likely to peg their exchange rates, in spite of growing capital mobility.     

EQUITY AND EFFECTIVENESS OF POSSIBLE CO2 TREATY PROPOSALS

The Montreal Protocol on chlorofluorocarbon control established an important precedent for global environmental treaties that include both developing countries and industrial countries. This paper evaluates seven possible treaty proposals to control carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Growth-rate control proposals fail on effectiveness of control or on equity differences between developing countries and industrial countries. Complex proposals link policies in population growth, economic development, world energy taxation, and forestation. These complex proposals, which appear to be both effective and equitable, can defer or avoid CO2 doubling.