The Eisner Puzzle,the Unemployment Threshold and the Range of Equilibria

Using a two-regime model of the inflation-unemployment process for US data 1960:2 to 2000:2, this paper finds strong evidence to support the Eisner puzzle, which occurs when the short-run Phillips curve (SRPC) is flatter at low rates of unemployment than at higher rates. The puzzling aspect of this pattern is the expectation of excess demand to become apparent at very low rates of unemployment causing the SRPC to be steep rather than fairly flat. We show the puzzle can be resolved by estimating a three-regime model which reveals a steep SRPC at very low rates of unemployment. The estimates of the three regime model also reveal a horizontal SRPC at intermediate rates of unemployment, implying the existence of a range of equilibrium rates of unemployment at those intermediate rates.

An Evaluation of Unemployment Policy in Australia Using the Range of Equilibria

The major failures of macroeconomic policy in the last 40 years are the huge increases in unemployment and inflation in the 1970s and the persistence for 25 years of the former. This article uses econometric estimates of a model of the range of equilibria for Australia for the period 1965:4 to 2003:3 to evaluate the role of macroeconomic policies in these failures. Our analysis distinguishes the roles of aggregate supply policies and aggregate demand policies. We conclude from our analysis that macroeconomic outcomes would have been better over this period had monetary policy been guided by a hierarchical inflation target, which is to be set so as to achieve the highest level of activity subject to satisfying the inflation target.     

技术创新、间断平衡和经济长波

令人信服的长波技术原因论不仅需要证明技术创新(速度)决定投资(速度)进而决定经济长波,还需要证明创新本身为何以集群方式周期性出现.通过间断平衡理论的生物学隐喻研究方法,从技术路径依赖、重大技术突破的联动效应和宏观环境的积极作用角度阐述了技术创新集群性和周期性的原因,具有一定的理论解释力和说服力,也为后续研究提供了一个有益的思路和视角.     

Altruism and Determinacy of Equilibria in Overlapping Generations Models with Externalities

This paper deals with an OLG model with production and a single commodity, in which agents are assumed altruistic and the aggregate production function contains external effects. I prove that, if the technology satisfies a minor assumption, which encompasses positive and negative externalities, some curvature conditions on the utility function ensure local determinacy of stationary and period 2 equilibria. I prove that non-separable, strictly concave preferences are a fundamental ingredient for the occurrence of indeterminate equilibria. Finally, considering the case of unbounded growth, I establish that for any utility and production functions a unique balanced growth path is globally determinate.
JEL Classification Numbers: C62, E32     

Existence of Equilibria in Matching Models of Money: A New Technique

This paper develops a new technique for proving the existence and indeterminacy of monetary equilibria in money search models with divisible money. Our technique is substantially simpler than standard constructive proofs in the literature. This paper is based on the second half of Kamiya and Shimizu (2002). We are very grateful to the associate editor and an anonymous referee of this journal for their very detailed suggestions and comments. This research is financially supported by Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research from JSPS and MEXT. The second author also acknowledges the financial support by Zengin Foundation for studies on Economics and Finance.     

旅游产业链的两种模式及未来趋势

本文运用系统方法把旅游产业链划分为中介模式和无中介模式,详细分析了这两种模式的运行特点。随着信息技术和网络技术的发展,两种旅游产业链模式将会不断融合,从而形成虚拟一体化与知识联盟的模式。     

本轮经济周期特点及未来走势判断

与1997年以来历次周期波动调整相比较,本轮经济周期调整幅度深、速度快,并具有很强的政策性,工业收缩幅度最大,先行指数触底回升时也没有出现以往几次调整中的全面复苏迹象。本次经济周期调整,库存调整周期加长,房地产调整尚未结束,一致指数和先行指数的构成指标显示中国未来经济增长动力不足,回升基础并不稳固,很有可能出现反复。     

Real Business Cycle Models: An Introduction

In this article we present a simple real business cycle (RBC) model, in order to show that these models capture many of the features of business cycles in the real economy. While these models are very abstract, we argue that they are a useful way of thinking about the macro-economy. RBC models have also been influential in refocusing attention on supply issues in macroeconomics, after a long postwar focus on aggregate demand management in Australia and most other western economies. Policies such as structural reform and labour market reform are clearly aimed at influencing the supply side of the economy and productivity, and can be understood within the framework of RBC theory. RBC models have developed rapidly recently, yet there remains a good deal of misunderstanding about the methods and aims of these models. In this article we present a review of the literature and examine a simple model, using graphical techniques, to clarify some issues. We also argue that these models, while having limitations, have caused a fruitful re-examination of supply issues in economics, after the almost exclusive focus on aggregate demand in macroeconomics until the late 1970s.     

从周期性分析看我国证券市场的发展趋势—论经济周期、政策周期与股市周期的辩证关系

我国的证券市场从20世纪90年代初期建立后取得了长足的发展.那么,在新的21世纪,我国的证券市场将会如何运行、如何发展呢?要分析这些问题,就必须对我国的经济周期、政策周期与股市周期的辩证关系进行深入系统的研究分析.     

The Equivalence of Wage and Price Staggering in Monetary Business Cycle Models

This paper considers the persistence puzzle documented by V. Chari, P. Kehoe, and E. McGratten (2000, Econometrica68, 1151–1179). Specifically, it addresses a claim by T. Andersen (1998, European Economic Review42, 593–603) and K. Huang and Z. Liu (1999, “Staggered Contracts and Business Cycle, Persistence,” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Discussion Paper 127) that staggered-wage models are better able to generate persistent real responses to monetary shocks than are staggered-price models. The paper argues that this result hinges on the assumption of homogeneous factor markets and shows that by assuming firm-specific factor inputs the staggered-price model is as capable as the staggered-wage model is of generating persistent real responses to monetary shocks. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E24, E31, E32     

中国经济周期波动新态势与经济增长趋势

随着2008年美国金融危机的爆发,中国第三季度GDP增长率出现了明显的下滑,最近一轮经济周期波动出现了新的态势.随着中国政府最近出台的一系列促进经济增长和扩大内需的措施,房地产过度扩张之后遇到的资源和需求约束将不复存在,因此未来一段时期内中国经济增长不会出现大幅波动.     

Contestability and the Indeterminacy of Free-Entry Equilibria

A general notion of market perfect contestability is introduced. It coincides with the definition given by Baumol et al . under Bertrand competition, but is compatible with Cournot competition as well as monopolistic competition. Using this notion, we illustrate the fact that the number of active firms in free-entry equilibrium may be largely indeterminate and different levels of positive profits may in many cases be sustained. This is shown to be true, in spite of market perfect contestability, under either Cournot competition or product differentiation. Examples are given for both cases. Appropriate conditions of increasing returns are required.
JEL Classification Numbers: D5, D43.     

欧盟五种经济模式的比较与发展趋势

欧盟经济并不存在单一的"社会模式",而是应该划分为五种经济模式,即西欧模式、南欧模式、英爱模式、北欧模式和东欧模式.每一种模式的特点各有千秋,并在经济增长率、通货膨胀率、劳动生产率及政府支出等方面表现出很大的差异,显示出各自的优势和劣势.未来欧盟五种经济模式发展的趋向将是相互取长补短、互相靠近,在取得社会公平与追求经济效率之间实现均衡.     

我国经济增长的地区趋同性及其路径分析--基于扩展的积累增长模型实证研究

文章在分析传统的积累增长模型的基础上,引入了边干边学、受教育水平、技术水平、后发能力等非价格因素的变量,提出了一个扩展的积累增长模型的分析方法,对我国经济增长的地区性、趋同性及路径进行了实证分析.主要结论为:我国东、中、西部地区内部各省份的经济增长存在明显的趋同性,而全国各省份也存在趋同性;三个地区与全国各省份的经济增长趋同路径的相似之处在于,劳动力受教育程度、投资对经济增长的拉动作用;而不同之处在于,实际产出的积累、进出口价格指数、居民收入等因素的作用方向与程度不尽相同.     

Non-Additive Beliefs and Strategic Equilibria

This paper studies n-player games where players' beliefs about their opponents' behaviour are modelled as non-additive probabilities. The concept of an “equilibrium under uncertainty” which is introduced in this paper extends the equilibrium notion of Dow and Werlang (1994, J. Econom. Theory64, 305–324) to n-player games in strategic form. Existence of such an equilibrium is demonstrated under usual conditions. For low degrees of ambiguity, equilibria under uncertainty approximate Nash equilibria. At the other extreme, with a low degree of confidence, maximin equilibria appear. Finally, robustness against a lack of confidence may be viewed as a refinement for Nash equilibria. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, D81.     

Asynchronous Choice and Markov Equilibria

We provide a theoretical foundation for the use of Markov strategies in repeated games with asynchronous moves. If admissible strategies must display finite (arbitrarily long) memory and each player incurs a “complexity cost” which depends on the memory length required by her strategy, then every Nash equilibrium must be in Markovian strategies. If, in addition, admissible strategies have uniformly bounded memory, every rationalizable strategy must be Markovian. These results are robust to considerations of perfection and also yield interesting implications for equilibrium selection in simple contexts. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, C73.     

Nash Equilibria in Pure Strategies

We consider an n ‐person non‐zero‐sum non‐cooperative game in normal form, where the strategy sets are some closed intervals of the real line. It is shown that if the pay‐off functions are continuous on the whole space and if for each pay‐off function the smallest local maximum in the strategy variable is a global maximum, then the game possesses a pure strategy Nash equilibrium.