In Defence of Model-Based Seasonal Adjustment: An Illustration Using Australian Data

It is argued that the X-11 seasonal adjustment procedure suffers from severe drawbacks, and so it should be abandoned in favour of model-based seasonal adjustment. Furthermore, it is argued that Harvey's structural time series model is superior to the conventional seasonal ARIMA models for the purpose of model-based seasonal adjustment. It is shown, with the help of a large number of Australian time series, that the nature of seasonality differs from one series to another, and this is why model selection is crucial for seasonal adjustment. It is further shown that model-based seasonal adjustment could produce results that are significantly different from those obtained by applying the X-11 procedure. Since the X-11 procedure is not based on an explicit model and in view of its other serious drawbacks, it is concluded that the procedure should be abandoned in favour of model-based seasonal adjustment.     

Fiscal Illusion at the Local Level: An Empirical Test Using Australian Municipal Data

This paper seeks to extend the literature on the empirical analysis of fiscal illusion in two ways. First, it provides a simultaneous test of four specific hypotheses subsumed under fiscal illusion, namely the revenue-complexity, renter illusion, debt illusion and flypaper models. and second, it adds evidence drawn from the Australian institutional milieu to existing empirical work which has an overwhelming North American focus. Using 1991 data from 46 local government authorities in Tasmania, the results suggest significant support for revenue-complexity, debt illusion, and the degree of indirectness of the revenue system.     

Female Earnings and Divorce Rates: Some Australian Evidence

The purpose of this article is to examine whether female earnings have influenced divorce rates in Australia, using state‐level data for the past four decades. Following a recent study by Ressler and Waters (2000), which concludes from comparable US data that female earnings and divorce rates may be jointly endogenous, initial testing is performed to identify whether female earnings can be treated as exogenous. A Hausman specification error test finds no evidence of a simultaneous relationship in the Australian data, in contrast to the findings of Ressler and Waters. The test result supports the hypothesis that other underlying factors affect female earnings, of which higher divorce rates are merely another symptom. A divorce rate equation is estimated. In accordance with much of the literature, the rise in female earnings over the past four decades is found to have increased Australian divorce rates.     

Schooling, Informal Experience, and Formal Sector Earnings: A Study of Indian Workers

This paper estimates an earnings function for male workers belonging to the Indian corporate sector. The model allows for differential rates of return to schooling and distinguishes tenure from total labor market experience. The rate of return to schooling is found to be low up to the junior level, increases significantly at the secondary and undergraduate levels, but sharply declines at the masters level. Seniority and firm-specific factors are found to be important determinants of earnings. When years of unemployment and informal experience are incorporated, earnings of low-education workers appear to be driven entirely by formal-sector experience.     

盈余管理与审计意见关系的实证研究--基于非经营性收益的分析

文章研究了中国上市公司通过非经营性活动进行盈余管理是否会影响其收到非标准无保留意见(后称非标意见)的可能性.我们的假设是:盈余管理越高的公司,收到非标意见的可能性越大.我们选取1998～2001年3009家A股上市公司进行实证研究,结果与我们的预期一致,支持原假设.我们进一步还对非标意见进行了归类分析,发现公司盈余管理行为仅仅会增加收到"带说明段无保留意见"的可能性,而对其他类型非标意见的出具则无显著影响.     

中国环保投资对城镇化影响的实证研究——基于中国分区域省份数据的面板回归分析

利用中国30个省份2008~2012年的面板数据,针对环保投资与城镇化之间的影响关系进行实证研究。研究发现:三项环保投资在全国层面和东中西部三大区域层面的影响作用是不同的。其中,城市环境基础设施建设投资对中部地区和西部地区的正向促进作用明显,但是对东部地区无显著影响;工业污染源治理投资对各区域城镇化水平均呈现负的影响作用;建设项目三同时环保投资对于全国层面、东部地区和中部地区均有显著影响,其中对全国的城镇化水平影响为正,对于东部地区和中部地区的影响均为负。     

Independent Living and Home Ownership: An Analysis of Australian Youth

Abstract
This study extends economic models of the joint decisions of living arrangement and home ownership. The cost of shelter is an important factor in determining whether youth live independently (apart from parents and other non-related adults), and the cost of home ownership relative to renting is important to the tenure decision (choice of owning or renting). Simulations suggest that the post-1985 decline and eventual removal of the Australian subsidy for first-time home owners has lowered the home ownership rate among young households by 23 per cent, the equivalent of slowing the time to first ownership by two years.     

Earnings Dynamics and Profile Heterogeneity: Estimates from Japanese Panel Data

The recent empirical work on earnings processes using US panel data finds that ignoring heterogeneity in earnings profiles among individuals leads to an upward bias in the autoregressive parameter of earnings shocks. It then argues that the existing assumptions in incomplete markets and heterogeneous‐agent models, almost all of which require highly persistent earnings shocks and no individual‐specific and group‐specific differences in earnings growth rates, may be inappropriate. This paper investigates the applicability of this US data‐based debate to other developed countries by using a panel of Japanese male earnings. The results indicate that it is possible to corroborate the recent US arguments, despite some differences in the estimates.     

Measuring Efficiency in Higher Education: An Empirical Study Using a Bootstrapped Data Envelopment Analysis

This paper applies data envelopment analysis (DEA) to assess technical efficiency in a big public university. Particular attention has been paid to two main activities, teaching and research, and on two large groups, the Science and Technology (ST) sector and the Humanity and Social Science (HSS) sector. The findings, based to data from 2005 to 2009, suggest that the ST sector is more efficient in terms of quality of research than the HSS sector, that instead achieves higher efficiency in teaching activities. The efficiency estimates strongly depend on the output specification, given that the use of several quality proxies, such as three research and two student questionnaire-based teaching alternative indices, reduce performance and its differentials for both research and teaching activities. A bootstrap technique is also used to provide confidence intervals for efficiency scores and to obtain bias-corrected estimates. The Malmquist index is calculated to measure changes in productivity.     

中国企业利润质量与企业价值 -来自中国证券市场的经验证据

本文考察了我国证券市场1995～2002年企业利润质量与其市场价值的相关性后发现,首先,1994～2002年各年非经常性损益都在1％水平与股价呈显著正相关,说明我国投资者不重视利润质量。这与Collins and Maydew and Weiss（1997）在美国市场的发现明显不同。其次,2000～2002年伴随经营利润和非经常性损益定价乘数的下降,净资产与企业市价相关性显著提高,表明企业利润的价值相关性在下降,净资产的价值相关性在提高,这是我国新兴市场与西方成熟市场接轨的标志。     

Knowledge Capital and Venture Capital Investments: New Evidence from European Panel Data

Abstract. Countries with a high amount of knowledge capital are likely to have higher volumes of venture capital (VC) investments because more researchers come up with innovative business ideas that require venture capital finance. Using panel data techniques, the paper finds evidence that VC investments depend strongly on the countries' knowledge capital measured by the number of patents, or the number of R&D researchers, or gross domestic expenditures on R&D. In addition, the paper analyzes whether government-financed knowledge capital fulfills a special role for VC investments. It finds only weak evidence that VC investments depend, with a delay of several years, on government-financed knowledge capital.     

中国城市招商引资的经验与教训

本文在对世界银行2003年中国城市投资环境评价报告及台湾地区电机电子同业公会连续4年对大陆主要城市投资环境与投资风险评价报告进行分析对比的基础上,对国内主要城市近年来的招商引资现状进行分析和概括,并对几个典型城市在招商引资方面的经验与教训进行研究,为武汉市改善招商引资环境提供可借鉴的思路.     

中国上市公司盈利成长规律实证分析

西方的多数研究证实 ,个别企业的盈利变化过程大致可由随机游走过程来表述 ,这给后期的学者利用盈利数据进行实证研究提供了基础。中国的某些学者不加检验地引进了西方的研究成果 ,即假设企业的盈利遵循随机游走过程 ,甚至认为企业的盈利应该遵循带成长因素的随机游走过程。实际情况如何呢 ?本文以上海证券交易所 1 994年底之前上市的公司为样本 ,采用多种统计方法 ,分析了它们连续 6年的盈利报告 ,结果发现 :(1 )上市公司盈利额及总资产利润率并不遵循随机游走过程和带成长因素的随机游走过程。 (2 )从盈利增量呈强负自相关的两个样本组合的统计分析看 ,模型中加进盈利增量变量 ,较大地提高了模型拟合度。 (3)从多项统计指标的显著改善可以看出 ,模型Et=b1 Et- 1 +b2 ΔEt- 1 +εt 能更好地描述样本公司的盈利成长。     

农民合作经济组织产生的成本-收益分析

农民合作经济组织是市场经济发展到一定阶段的必然产物。作为一种农村微观经济组织创新,它所带来的收益主要来自节约交易成本的收益、规模经济收益、技术进步收益、一体化经营收益、减少不确定性及规避市场风险的收益和维护经济地位的收益,而其成本则包括融资成本和制度成本。只有当预期收益大于预期成本时,组织创新才会发生。因此,只有不断降低组织创新的预期成本,才能形成合作组织广泛产生和蓬勃发展的局面。