World population growth and the role of annual energy use per capita

In the context of ongoing world population growth, no permanent growth in materials consumption can be sustained into the future. A sustainable future requires that the world's population stabilize. The author considers the possible coupling of the annual energy use per capita and the population growth rate for each region, and the consequences of such a connection if the world's population is to stabilize. Energy is used as a factor because it is a proactive agent in facilitating increases in the standard of living and changes in the social conditions thought to influence the fertility rate. Historical trends and near-term projections for energy use and population growth rate are used to indicate a possible future path for developing regions. Improvements in the efficiency of energy use and modest cultural changes are used in an example projection of coupled energy use and population growth. For each decade, the incremental increase in annual commercial energy use per capita and a corresponding decrease in population growth rate are chosen to continue the historical trends for developing regions of the world. This approach results in population changes which closely follow the projections of the World Bank for the period up to 2150. World energy use is projected to increase from about 9000 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) today to 15,000-21,000 Mtoe/a by the time the world's population has risen from 6 billion to about 12 billion in the 22nd century. The energy demands of each developing region are compared with potential, indigenous energy sources to determine whether each developing region may be able to cope with its increased energy demand without massive energy imports. The availability of readily moveable, cheap fuels will help the developing world make the transition to a more stable population with a decent standard of living.     

DOES GNP EXAGGERATE GROWTH IN “ACTUAL” OUTPUT? THE CASE OF THE UNITED STATES

Measures of national product can be misleading because there is nonmarket production. There are also distortions due to transactional activities, which are expenditures to support transactions, not actual output consumed. For 1950–89, this study recalculates output for the United States, adjusting for transactional activities and nonmarket production. Due to relatively rapid growth in transactional activities, GNP overstates output growth in the 1950s; because there was slow expansion of transactional activities in the early 1970s, GNP understates actual output. Since 1974, increases in transactional activities and shifts to market production lead GNP to exaggerate improvement of "actual" output per capita.     

Energy in America's future

Energy in America's Future, the book reported on in this article, assembled facts and performed analyses required for making informed energy choices. It reached broad conclusions on supply and demand prospects and on the environmental and other social aspects of policy choices. Although near-term constraints are severely binding, the nation's natural resource position is favorable for long-run supply expansion. Future technologies are also promising in cost terms. Although costs are bound to rise, a ceiling on long-run supply costs looks to be possible at real levels surprisingly close to current prices. Energy consumption in relationship to overall national output (GNP) will be growing at a slower rate than in recent decades. Consumers will use relatively less energy as a result of higher energy prices, conservation incentives, and new energy-using technology. Even so, overall energy use will grow. Major energy demand policy issues concern not just the likely rate of growth of consumption, but also the possible problems connected with optimizing energy efficiency at the expense of economic efficiency (i.e., output in relation to all inputs, particularly those of labor and capital). Environmental impacts and concerns about questions of human health and safety will continue to affect public acceptance of particular energy technologies. The public will need to be adequately informed on the comparative risks of energy supply technologies, and the technical and institutional means available for reducing these risks. The price system must be permitted to function to the maximum feasible extent. In addition, the task for political leadership is to forge a public consensus in support of achievable energy goals. This has been difficult because of conflicting public perceptions of the facts and clashes in social values among different groups. The future prospects for achieving a national energy consensus should be enhanced by the outlook for slower energy demand growth and favorable supply prospects along with potential improvements in the environmental side effects associated with new and improved supply technologies. As knowledge of these changing circumstances becomes more broadly disseminated, the ability to achieve broad public support of energy goals should grow stronger.     

中国未来经济增长及其国际经济地位展望

论文在分析国内外历史资料和经济增长因素的基础上 ,对中国和目前经济总量世界排名前五位国家的未来经济增长率、国内生产总值以及中国人均国内生产总值进行了预测 ,得出以下基本结论 :中国国内生产总值将于 2 0 0 5年超过法国 ,2 0 0 6年超过英国 ,2 0 1 2年超过德国 ,本世纪中叶 ,有可能超过日本 ,成为世界第二经济大国 ,但在本世纪内很难超过美国 ,成为世界第一经济大国 ;2 0 50年中国人均国内生产总值将达到中等发达国家 2 0 0 0年的水平。     

市场机制对中国人均能源消费调节作用的实证研究

目前研究中国能源问题大多集中在能源消费总量上，而常常忽视了入均能源消费量的问题。通过地图显示，可以初步判断中国人均能源消费主要与两个因素有关：经济因素和能源资源禀赋因素。通过加权最小二乘（WLS）基准模型发现，经济发展水平、能源资源禀赋、第二产业和第三产业比重与人均能源消费成正比关系；市场机制调节作用下的能源价格抑制了人均能源消耗。然后运用分位数回归方法，结果发现：经济欠发达地区、沿海能源资源匮乏地区；第二产业比重较低的地区的弹性系数较高；在25％-80％分位数段内，第三产业比重的弹性系数基本相同；虽然市场化通过能源价格起到了调节人均能源消费量的作用，但分位数回归的结果显示能源价格仍然是扭曲的。     

经济增长与能源消费内在依从关系的实证研究

学术界对经济增长与能源消费二者之间关系的研究,主要以线性关系假设为前提,并未对这一假设是否合理进行严格的经济计量学检验。本文率先将近年来发展的非线性STR模型技术具体应用于我国能源消费与经济增长之间内在结构依从关系的研究,揭示了二者之间复杂而微妙的变化规律,并得出如下几个结论:(1)我国经济增长对能源消费的影响具有非线性特征,并可以通过LSTR2模型来表达。(2)我国经济增长对能源消费的影响具有非对称性。当GDP增长绝对下降时,能源消费比GDP有更快的下降速度;当GDP增长率不超过18·04%时,经济增长对能源消费的影响具有相对稳定性,能源消费对经济增长的弹性为0·9592;当GDP增长率超过18·04%时,能源消费较GDP有更快的增长速度,经济增长完全以能源的高消耗为代价。因此,应尽可能地避免经济的负增长和超高速增长。(3)我国经济增长对能源消费的影响具有明显的阶段性特征。在1956—1976年间,呈现明显的非线性特征;在1977—2005年间,则呈现明显的线性特征。     

近20年来中国区域经济发展差异的测定与评价

选取人均GDP、人均社会消费零售总额社会经济指标,通过计算其变异系数、加权变异系数、威廉森系数、最大与最小系数,对中国1978-2002年的经济发展不平衡性进行了动态时序分析,定量评价,了近20年来中国区域社会经济发展的差异程度;采用经济区位酶指标分析了中国经济发展空间格局的动态演化过程。结果表明,1990年以前中国经济区域差异程度在减小,1990年以后经济区域差异程度扩大,社会消费水平总体上呈扩大趋势。在空间格局上,经济发达区由过去的东北地区扩展到东部沿海地区,1970-1980年代区域差异表现为经济发达区、经济发展区、经济落后区之间的差异,而到1990年代主要表现为经济发达区和经济落后区之间的差异,两极化趋势明显,区域差异程度加大。     

TESTING CATCHING‐UP BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: “GROWTH RESISTANCE” AND SOMETIMES “GROWTH TRAGEDY”

This paper provides empirical evidence that there is no convergence between the GDP per‐capita of the developing countries since 1950. Relying upon recent econometric methodologies (non‐stationary long‐memory models, wavelet models and time‐varying factor representation models), we show that the transition paths to long‐run growth (the catch‐up dynamics) are very persistent over time and non‐stationary, thereby yielding a variety of potential steady states (conditional convergence). Our findings do not support the idea according to which the developing countries share a common factor (such as technology) that eliminates per‐capita output divergence in the very long run. Instead, we conclude that growth is an idiosyncratic phenomenon that yields different forms of transitional economic performance: growth tragedy (some countries with an initial low level of per‐capita income diverge from the richest ones), growth resistance (with many countries experiencing a low speed of growth convergence), and rapid convergence.     

Socio-metabolic transitions in developing Asia

A possible sustainability transition in developing Asia needs to complement the ongoing transition from an agrarian to an industrial socio-ecological regime. As is known from other world regions, an agrarian-industrial transition involves a major increase in material and energy flows (corresponding to a 2-4 fold increase in the demand for raw materials and energy). The socio-metabolic profile of the South-East Asian region still shows relatively low material and energy consumption per capita, suggesting that major growth may follow. Infrastructures that are closely bound-up in bulk material flows (transport, energy and food sectors) will be critical to future developments. The paper illustrates the challenge and potential solutions from a number of case studies.     

投资清洁能源技术 促进经济绿色增长

当前,全球同时面临两个重大挑战：尽快走出经济危机和应对能源供应和气候变化安全,实现向低碳的过渡。全球向低碳的过渡将催生能源技术革命。为促进经济恢复,世界主要经济体都实施了经济刺激计划。清洁能源技术是刺激计划投资的重点之一。本文在已有公开文献的基础上,总结了能源技术革命的主要内容、清洁能源技术对促进经济绿色增长的作用和主要经济体刺激计划对清洁能源投资的重点。分析了金融和经济危机对清洁能源技术发展的影响,提出实施综合技术政策,以能源技术革命促经济绿色增长。试图回答如何将迎接能源技术革命和促进经济恢复结合起来的问题。     

A multi-factor efficiency perspective to the relationships among world GDP, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions

Most of the research articles on climate change study the relationships between economic growth, and, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission or energy consumption separately for analyzing the impacts of economic growth and energy consumption on global carbon dioxide emissions. In this paper, the linkages among CO₂ emissions, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and energy consumption are studied simultaneously using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The time period considered for the study is 1980-2001. The results show that world in the year 1980 was the most efficient in achieving the highest economic growth, emitting least carbon dioxide for a given level of energy consumption for that year. The efficiency index reduced in the next 8 years, fluctuated with a declining trend for the next 7 years, and began to rise from 1996 till 2001. The model is further extended in this paper for technology forecasting to identify the links between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions for achieving projected levels of GDP under two different assumptions on efficiency index. It has been identified using the forecasting model that, when the carbon dioxide emissions are restricted to the levels emitted in the year 1990 and when the efficiency index for the year 2025 is assumed to be at the level registered for the year 1980 (highest value), the non-fossil energy consumption needed to meet the GDP level projected for 2025 will be much smaller (35.46 quadrillion Btu for the reference GDP) than the values actually recorded in the year 1990 (44.59). However, the non-fossil energy consumption in 2025 (118.8) increases much more than the actual recorded in the year 1990 when the efficiency index in 2025 is assumed to be at the level registered for the year 1990.     

21世纪前期我国能源战略的若干问题

能源是制约我国经济发展的关键因素之一.当前我国在人均能耗水平、能源利用效率、能源消费方式等方面均大大落后于发达国家.今后应通过合理利用国内外两种资源,尽快改变迄今仍以煤为主的能源消费结构.在全国宏观调控下,各个大的地区应根据其区域经济发展与能源供需平衡的不平情况与特点,遵循市场经济规律,拟订有所区别的区域能源战略.本文在分析我国能源主要问题的基础上,阐述了优化能源结构的途径并提出了七个大区的能源战略要点.     

Composite indices of physical quality of life,basic needs fulfilment,and income: A ‘principal component’ representation

In the context of international comparisons, the multivariate method of ’principal components’ is suggested for computing composite indices of economic development that capture per capita income, basic needs fulfilment, and other possible indicators of well-being. The method is conceptually appealing, easy to apply, and seems promising in several directions. Two illustrative applications are given. One develops a composite index based on the three PQLI constituents and per capita GNP for 147 countries. In the other, a composite index of basic needs fulfilment is first computed for 82 countries, and then a more inclusive measure, that also takes account of per capita GNP, is derived.     

Development without energy? Assessing future scenarios of energy consumption in developing countries

We analyze the relationship between economic development and energy consumption in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation. The main contribution of this work is to compare estimates of energy thresholds in the form of minimum energy requirements to reach high levels of development with output projections of per capita final energy supply from a group of integrated assessment models (IAMs). Scenarios project that reductions of carbon emissions in developing countries will be achieved not only by means of decreasing the carbon intensity, but also by making a significant break with the historically observed relationship between energy use and economic growth. We discuss the feasibility of achieving, on time scales acceptable for developing countries, both decarbonization and the needed structural changes or efficiency improvements, concluding that the decreases in energy consumption implied in numerous mitigation scenarios are unlikely to be achieved without endangering sustainable development objectives. To underscore the importance of basic energy needs also in the future, the role of infrastructure is highlighted, using steel and cement as examples.     

1990—2010年中国人口预期寿命与人均GDP的相关关系及其变化特征

预期寿命是反映人口寿命水平的重要指标,人均GDP是反映经济发展的重要指标。采用相关分析和回归分析对中国1990—2010年市域、县域两个尺度的预期寿命与人均GDP的关系进行分析,结果表明:人均GDP对预期寿命具有显著正向影响,但累积影响强于即时影响;人均GDP超过3000~5000元后,其对预期寿命的影响开始出现边际递减效应;人均GDP对预期寿命的影响强度在空间分布上自东向西增强。由于经济相对发达的东部地区人均GDP对预期寿命的贡献率要小于经济相对落后的西部地区,因此,今后东部地区应通过完善社会保障、优化卫生资源配置、倡导健康生活方式等途径进一步提高预期寿命,西部地区则应大力发展区域经济,努力提高生活水平,以尽快缩小与东部地区预期寿命的差距。     

从“特里芬难题”看美元的扩张及其影响

随着世界经济贸易的不断扩展和国际货币需求的日益增加,美元对国外的供给将不断扩大,但如果美国国际收支持续出现顺差,则美元的供给就将减少,难以满足国际需求;如果美国国际收支持续出现逆差,则又不利于美元价值的稳定,就要导致美元的贬值,这一点,罗伯特·特星芬早在20世纪60年代就做出了准确的预测。发生在美国的金融危机与美国半个多世纪以来的周期性国际收支失衡和美元极度扩张密切相关,美元的不稳定使国际金融体系变得更加脆弱。美元扩张已经积累了巨大的全球金融体系的风险,使全球经济面临上世纪大萧条以来最为严重的金融和经济危机。     

能源消费对经济增长溢出效应的差异分析——以人均消费作为减排门限的实证检验

本文利用一个两部门的生产函数,建立了估计能源消费对经济增长溢出效应的计量模型。利用45个国家(地区)1980-2007年的数据,本文实证检验了当以人均消费水平作为门限变量时,能源消费溢出效应的国家(地区)差异。实证检验的结果证实了能源消费与经济增长之间存在非线性转换行为,具体来说两者有且只有一个门限值,当人均消费水平在门限值以内时,能源消费增长对经济增长具有显著的拉动作用;而当超过这一门限水平时,作用反向且不再显著。此外,本文发现超过门限值的主要是发达经济体。这意味着这些国家(地区)不仅从对消费者负责的角度应当实施节能减排,而且从减少对经济增长的负面影响看,也应当并且可以实施严格的能源政策。     

Energy, property, and the industrial revolution narrative

The Industrial Revolution (IR) story is the core of a mainstream economic history narrative of energy/development relationships, celebrating Modern Economic Growth (MEG) as the increase in per capita energy consumption in the last two centuries. Such a narrative emphasizes mineral technology and private property as the key elements of growth processes. I will criticize the above narrative, from a socio-environmental history perspective, for its inability to account for two crucial aspects of energy history: 1. the role of social power as key determinant in how energy sources are used and to what ends; 2. the socio-ecological costs associated with the increase of energy consumption. I will then review Environmental History studies on energy/industrialization and highlight possible future developments in the field. The article makes a strong point for the need to look at energy transitions as social processes, and to include the unequal distribution of environmental, health, and social costs of mineral energy into global history narratives.     

主要英语国家经济与非英语国家经济的比较分析

20世纪90年代以来,发达国家当中,美国、英国、加拿大和澳大利亚等主要英语国家经济增长普遍快于日本、德国、法国和意大利等主要非英语国家.无论从经济增长速度、人均GDP增长,还是失业率,或者劳动生产率来看,都是主要英语国家好于主要非英语国家.造成这种差距出现的原因是:主要非英语国家由于宏观经济政策出现了一些失误,错失了20世纪90年代新经济发展的机遇,产业没有及时转型以及一些有强大势力的"利益集团"的消极影响,因而其经济增长速度放缓;而主要英语国家由于积极推进经济改革,及时调整产业结构,注重技术创新和提高劳动生产率,充分利用英语语言工具在全球中的优势,因而加快了本国经济的发展.主要英语国家经济与非英语国家经济的增长差别,给其他国家发展本国经济提供了许多有益的启示.     

An empirical analysis of the relationship between economic development and population growth in China

China has experienced a dramatic demographic transition since the latter half of the twentieth century, and thus, assessing the global economic implications is an important issue. This article uses time-series data on China to estimate the determinants of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. According to the results of the presented co-integration analysis, population has a significantly negative impact on GDP per capita, while savings rate, total factor productivity and degree of industrialization have significantly positive impacts on GDP per capita. These results suggest that the share of the working-age population relative to the total population does not have a strong influence on GDP per capita. Therefore, the contribution of the working-age population to economic growth might not be as large as previously assumed. It is also possible that an increase in savings, remarkable industrialization and rapid technological progress have all stimulated economic growth in China greatly.