Simulation model of the polish economy

This paper presents some results of the simulation model of the Polish economy in transition from the planned to market one. The simulation model is nonlinear and dynamic. It consists of 800 balance equations, 40 of which are difference state equations. The basic time unit is one quarter while the calculation horizon spans between three and 10 years. It was calibrated to the 1994–96 statistical data. The model contains the aggregates of production (divided between the state and private sectors and three production branches), households, public sector, banking system, and foreign trade. The simulation attempts to forecast chosen macroeconomic variables resulting from different scenarios. Sets of effective (Pareto-optimal) solutions and effective growth paths of economy were obtained. The simulation results help to better understand the macroeconomic process in the transition period and can be useful for central-level decisionmakers. This work was partially supported by grant No. 1 HO2B 023 09 from Komitet Badan Naukowych (Polish State Committee for Scientific Research).     

The federal reserve board MPS quarterly econometric model of the US economy

This paper describes the structure and properties of the Federal Reserve Board's (MPS) econometric model of the US economy. The theoretical underpinnings are developed using a small growth model that is a simplified version of the steady-state structure of the full model. Short-run dynamic properties, which are Keynesian, are discussed and quantified with simulation results. The largest part of the paper consists of a discussion of the theoretical basis and empirical properties of the key behavioural equations. A complete list of equations is included.     

An econometric model of Kuwait's non-oil GDP

A model covering the production part of the non-oil GDP in Kuwait is specified and estimated for the period 1972-93. The estimated model has passed the test of validation quite well. Therefore, the model has been used to experiment with a number of possible scenarios to depict a future path of all the endogenous variables of the model. The postulated scenarios are adopted from the various policy options of Kuwait's Ministry of Planning. The results have indicated that a quick reform policy will cause a substantial decline in non-oil production and consumption. A better policy option would be to choose a policy between minor and gradual reform.     

An econometric model of France during the 19th century

A model of the French economy in the 19th century is presented, first, to test the consistency of the national income series that are currently being developed and, second, to highlight the factors that account for the slowing down of the country's economic growth during the middle decades of that century. A few simulations of the model are also presented to give a clearer view of the structural change the economy experienced, and as an illustration of the general working of the model and its potential applications.     

转轨经济中内部人控制分析

在转轨经济(TransitionEcono-my)中出现的内部人控制(Insider'sControl)问题已经成为转轨经济国家国有企业公司治理中现实而且严峻的课题。本文基于对转轨经济国家企业公司治理中“内部人控制”的现实思考，旨在从理论和实践上深入分析和探讨“内部人控制”现象原因，并建立转轨经济中内部人控制模型，再提出一些避免严重“内部人控制”的建议。内部人控制现象在许多转轨经济中，内部人控制的现象正在变得越来越明显。根据斯坦福大学经济学家青木昌彦和钱颖一在其主编的《转轨经济中的公司治理结构》中给出的定义，内部人控制是指经理人员…     

An open-economy transition model

This paper presents an open-economy general equilibrium model illustrating an economy such as a small eastern European country prior to economic transition. The developed model illustrates some of the inefficiencies inherent in the pre-reform economies, including the price distortions that caused resource wasting queues, as well as government domination of the production process. The model specifically provides a dynamic, analytical framework for considering the impact of government policies in determining the size of the trade balance and pre- and post-reform domestic social welfare.The author sincerely appreciates the comments and suggestions on an earlier version of this paper provided by the participants in the Social Sciences Research Council Workshop on the Economics of Transition to Market Systems in St. Petersburg in July 1995, as well as at the 1996 AEA and CEA meetings. Gerhard Glomm, Michael Alexeev, Joe C. Davis, and Ashok Kotwal had many helpful suggestions. The author also thanks Josh Perryman for research assistance.     

A model of local labor market regulation of China in the transition period

With the establishment of labor market of China, market is playing a more and mare important role in allocation of human resources. However, with the transition of economy in China and industrial upgrading in recent years, many labor problems have occurred which do harm to the sustainable development of local economy. The paper researches on the labor market issues of China from the perspective of local labor market regulation. Firstly, it reviews the theories of local labor market regulation. And then the main components of local labor market regulation of China are identified and the evaluation index system is established. The results of analysis of the calculated output show that （1） the local labor market regulation of China has an obvious character of gradient distribution geographically and decreases gradually from east to west; （2） of all the regulations, the regulation of the development of human capital has the most significant impact on local economy currently which is followed by the regulation of labor relation and the regulation of market participation. As to the regulation of social security, it has no Significant impact on the development of local economy.     

A model of local labor market reguiation of Chin in the transition period

With the establishment of labor market of China,market is playing a more and more important role in allocation of human resources.However,with the transition of economy in China and industrial upgrading in recent years,many labor problems have occurred which do harm to the sustainable development of local economy.The paper researches on the labor market issues of China from the perspective of local labor market regulation,Firstly,reviews the theories of local labor market regulation.And then the main components of local labor market regulation of China are identified and the evaluation index system is established,The results of analysis of the calculated output show that (1) the local labor market regulation of China has an obvious character of gradient distribution geographically and decreases gradually from east to west;(2) of all the regulations,the regulation of the development of human capital has the most significant impact on local economy currently which is followed by the regulation of laborrelation and the regulation of market participation.As to the regulation of social security,it has no significant impact on the development of local economy.     

An econometric model of structural change: a case study of Canada

The study postulates that structural change in a resource-based economy can, in large part, be explained by the behaviour of the relative wages. Different wage responses in tradeable and non-tradeable sectors create, over the course of the business cycle, a ‘ratchet effect’ which gradually squeezes the tradeable sector relative to the non-tradeable sector. Although the analysis is undertaken mainly within the Dutch-disease framework, an econometric model incorporating key elements of various views on the subject is tested for Canada. The results are consistent with the predictions of the model.     

An econometric application of the theory of the farm-household

Employing a Cobb-Douglas specification for the production function and a modified linear expenditure system, the paper presents an econometric model of household production, consumption and labor supply behaviour for a semi-commercial farm with a competitive labor market. The model, estimated from primary, cross-sectional, Malaysian data, is used to analyse the impact of migration, output price intervention and technological change on the agricultural sector. In doing so, the wage-rate is treated as an endogenous variable to be determined by the interaction of aggregate labor demand and supply curves obtained from the estimated micro functions.     

An econometric model of production with endogenous improvement in energy efficiency, 1970-1995

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a modification of a standard four input production process where energy is used in an inefficient way due partly to unnecessary waste of energy. In this production process, R&D investment is an additional input in order to improve energy efficiency. It closes the gap between energy purchased and energy used effectively. The more is invested, the less is the waste of energy. With the cost and benefit of R&D investment incorporated in our model of the firm, we analyse the impact of an energy tax on R&D effort, on output and on the waste of energy. The model is implemented empirically by choosing a translog cost function and a set of first-order conditions, using data for the German chemical industry, 1970-1995. In a simulation study based on higher energy prices we found outsourcing as the consequent reaction of the firm- more material is used and less of energy, labour, and capital, given the unchanged output level. There is no indication of a double dividend in terms of environmental improvement as well as higher demand for labour on the industry level calling for a computable general equilibrium approach in order to answer this open question.     

基于动态计量模型的青海省域经济增长实证分析

青海作为西部大开发中增长相对较慢的省份,其经济增长的问题与切入点如何,文章运用Eviews5.0统计软件,根据协整理论将对拉动经济增长的消费、投资、进出口三大马车与青海省的经济增长进行了实证研究.结果表明加快与社会主义市场经济相适应的各种制度的改革,引导消费,扩大需求,继续加大投资是当前加快青海省经济增长的着眼点.     

An econometric model of tenure choice and demand for housing as a joint decision

This paper models a household's choice of tenure and demand for housing services as a joint decision imposing the restriction that both discrete and continuous decisions are derived from a single preference ordering. The utility index for households is the translog form of the reciprocal indirect utility function allowing for random preferences. Each household chooses between the two main tenures, the owner-occupied and subsidised rental sectors, but households may be rationed in either or both of these sectors and refused admission, in which case they are assumed to enter the third sector, uncontrolled rental. The model is estimated on UK data for 5895 households.     

An econometric analysis of skewed productivity outcomes

An econometric model is developed to help explain uncertain yields from processes that generate inherently skewed outcomes. The yield is modeled as the interaction of potential and effort functions, where potential represents maximum yield that would be observed if the effort was infinite. The potential function is determined by some endogenous factors, and the effort function is determined by an exogenous input and allows for increasing and decreasing marginal returns to effort. A non-linear model incorporating these features is theoretically derived and empirically tested using data on outcomes from sales-tax audits. The results document the superiority of this model in capturing the underlying relationships, and provide a better out-of-sample fit to the data compared to two OLS models. The proposed model can be applied in various business and non-business settings.