Impact of exchange rate regime reform on asset returns in China

Employing monthly data over the period 1999–2010, this paper examines the impact of China's exchange rate regime reform in July 2005 on three major asset markets: house, land, and stocks. We test whether the reform, which switches from a fixed exchange rate regime to a managed floating one, has brought forward structural changes to asset return dynamics. The results suggest that the exchange rate regime switch exerted the most significant impact on house and land returns at the national level, in terms of both returns and their volatilities. In contrast, its impact on China's stock market was moderate, with no structural change being detected in its returns and only weak structural change being found in the dynamics of its volatility. We also find that in comparison with other popular explanatory variables, broad money supply and inflation have the largest explanatory power on housing and land returns in China after the policy reform.     

事实汇率制度选择、企业生产率与对外直接投资

企业“走出去”和汇率制度安排灵活化是中国参与全球经济的两大典型特征,本文从企业异质性视角讨论了双边事实汇率制度选择对企业对外直接投资的影响效应。理论层面上,本文将Gali and Monacelli(2005)的一般均衡框架拓展为两国模型,发现双边固定汇率制度降低了企业进入东道国开展OFDI活动的生产率阈值,提高了企业对外直接投资倾向。同时,尽管企业生产率的提升能够促进企业对外直接投资活动,但其促进力度明显不及双边事实固定汇率制度安排。实证层面上,本文采用了中国商务部公布的2000-2013年《境外投资企业(机构)名录》等微观企业数据,发现双边事实固定汇率制度能使企业进行OFDI概率平均提高0.8%~55.4%。考虑其他异质性因素及内生性问题后,本文主要结论依然稳健。     

Companies' Financial Decisions Under the Distributed Profit Taxation Regime of Estonia

This paper empirically analyzes companies' capital structure and dividend decisions under distributed profit taxation (DPT), Estonia's corporate taxation regime since 2000. The sample covers 26,000 observations of Estonian companies from 1995 to 2004. The results show that the DPT system has led companies to pay less in dividends and retain more profits. Simultaneously, the importance of external financing in companies' total capital has decreased. The undistributed profits appear to be partially retained as surplus cash, instead of being reinvested into long-term productive assets. DPT seems to support companies' liquidity and sustainability; however, the allocation of funds is potentially inefficient.     

汇率冲击、公司特质与外汇风险暴露——基于上证180样本股票的分析

开放经济条件下,汇率波动对上市公司价值的影响成为学者和业界广泛关注的重要课题。学者在研究外汇风险暴露的过程中发现,即使是同行业的公司,外汇风险暴露差异也很大,公司特异性因素对外汇风险暴露的水平有重要影响。2005年7月21日人民币汇率形成机制改革启动,人民币汇率波动幅度不断扩大,我国企业面临的外汇风险将不断增大。本文在对我国上市公司外汇风险暴露进行实证分析的基础上,采取两阶段回归方法,对影响上市公司外汇风险暴露公司特异性因素进行深入分析,认为36%的样本上市公司有显著的外汇风险暴露,这一比例高于发达国家的水平;外汇风险暴露与外部经济活动、负债状况和公司成长性密切相关。     

Exchange rate dynamics in anticipation of time-contingent regime switching: modelling the effects of a possible delay

The procedure of fixing a currently floating exchange rate at a given (and publicly announced) future date has a broad range of applications. Based on a (continuous-time) monetary exchange rate model with flexible prices, this paper analyzes exchange rate dynamics during the transition from floating to fixed rates in a situation in which market participants are uncertain about adherence to the fixing date and in which they take account of a possible delay in the regime switch. The closed-form solutions derived here allow us to quantify announcement effects as well as effects on the exchange rate variance caused by news that significantly changes the market's assessment of uncertainty.     

Currency boards, dollarized liabilities, and monetary policy credibility

The recent collapse of the Argentine currency board raises new questions about the desirability of formal fixed exchange rate regimes. This paper examines the relative performance of a currency board with costly abandonment in the presence of dollarized liabilities to a fully-discretionary regime. Our results demonstrate that neither regime necessarily dominates with only idiosyncratic firm shocks, but discretion unambiguously dominates with the addition of shocks to the dollar-euro rate. The relatively strong performance of the discretionary regime in this model stems from the benign impact of dollarized liabilities on the monetary authority’s time-inconsistency problem.     

Stock market integration between the UK and the US: Evidence over eight decades

This study investigates how the impact made on stock market integration by macroeconomic determinants such as various measures of convergence and financial volatility, as well as crisis episodes, varies over the period 1935–2015. We gauge how the level of integration between the UK and US stock markets changes across three monetary regimes during this period: pre–Bretton Woods (BW), the BW fixed exchange rate, and the post-BW flexible rates. Our empirical results suggest that integration was strongest under the post-BW regime and weakest under the BW regime. We further demonstrate that stock market integration between the two markets has been driven largely by macroeconomic convergence and financial volatility as well as by crises, especially since the demise of the BW system.     

Dividend valuation,trading and transactions costs: the 1997 partial abolition of dividend tax credit repayments

Although UK resident tax-exempt shareholders lost the right to repayment of tax credits on dividends paid by UK resident companies in July 1997, they could continue to receive tax credit repayments in respect of dividends received from Irish resident companies until December 1998. In July 1997 the rate of tax credit on Irish companies' dividends was 21%, and this was reduced to 11% in December 1997. We obtain insights into the incentives and behaviour of UK tax-exempt investors in response to these changes in the relative ‘tax attractiveness’ of investments in Irish resident companies. We find that only at its highest rate, 21%, was the level of dividend tax credit on Irish companies' dividends sufficient to induce changes in UK tax-exempt shareholders' investment strategies; and that the propensity for dividend capture by tax-exempt investors is heightened when the dividend tax credit yield is of the order of 0.8 or more and dividend yield is of the order of 2.6% or more.     

Expectations of Exchange Rates and Differential Inflation Rates: Further Evidence on Purchasing Power Parity in Efficient Markets

The paper tests the null hypothesis of ex ante purchasing power parity. The empirical evidence obtained is inconsistent with the null for major industrialized countries over the current floating exchange rate regime. Expected nominal exchange rate changes appear to deviate systematically from expected inflation rate differentials over the same holding period even though real exchange rate changes appear to be serially uncorrelated. This supports the presence of time-varying risk premia in foreign exchange markets and real determinants of exchange rate movements as suggested by equilibrium theories of international asset markets.     

Mining Sector Currency Risk Management Strategies: Responses to Foreign Currency Accounting Regulation

This study investigates the impact of Approved Accounting Standard ASRB 1012, Foreign Currency Translation, on the currency risk management strategies of firms in the Australian mining industry. ASRB 1012 increased the responsiveness of most mining companies' reported earnings to exchange rate movements, and it was predicted that firms would alter their capital structures in response to the increased accounting exposure. The results suggest that mining companies decreased their proportionate levels of long-term foreign debt and increased their share capital and/or reserves to mitigate the effects of the standard on their contracts. This information is useful to standard-setters seeking an awareness of the potential micro and macro-economic effects of their pronouncements.     

Behind the scenes of abandoning a fixed exchange rate regime

This paper explores the process of abandoning a fixed exchange rate regime during sudden stops in a small open economy. The Bank of Korea’s exchange rate policy reports during the East Asian crisis suggest that its fixed exchange rate regime was forced to collapse due to the depletion of usable foreign reserves, which resulted from the credit policy of the Korean central bank to support domestic banks in need of foreign currency liquidity. To capture the Korean crisis experience, I build a quantitative small open economy model in which, in response to the country risk premium shock, the foreign-currency credit policy of a central bank under fixed regime leads to the exhaustion of international reserves and consequent exchange rate regime shift. This model does well at replicating the observed contraction in Korean aggregate variables.     

Interest rate linkages within the EMS and bank credit supply

The exchange rates between the currencies of European Monetary System (EMS) members are essentially fixed between narrow bands mandated by the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). the intent of such a fixed rate regime is to enhance policy co-ordination within the EMS. However, it has instead led to German policy dominance within the system according to several recent studies. We examine the optimal dynamic credit policy of a bank in an EMS country that is subject to such German ‘dominance’. Our stochastic control model reveals conditions under which German monetary policies can influence domestic bank lending behaviour. It also suggests that banks may be able to hedge such risk exposure by increasing in size. the model offers ‘credit supply' based explanations for recent regulatory reforms in Europe towards unified banking and the attempts of several EMS members to de-link their policies from that of the German Bundesbank.     

The crowding-out effect of zombie companies on fixed asset investment: Evidence from China

This paper attempts to investigate the relationship between zombie companies and normal companies' fixed asset investment. Our empirical research finds that zombies will crowd out the fixed asset investment of normal companies, and this result remains stable under many robustness tests. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the crowding-out effect mainly exists in non-SOEs, companies with small tax contributions, and companies in light industries, while SOEs, companies with large tax contributions, and heavy industrial sectors are unaffected by zombies. It's also shown that zombie companies crowd out fixed asset investment by increasing financing constraints, raising financing costs and destroying the industry's competitive environment. We further find that improving the regional institutional environment can alleviate zombies' crowding-out effect. Overall, our paper enriches the research on zombie companies' negative impact on normal companies and emphasizes the importance of strengthening the construction of the institutional environment.     

The determinants of companies’ levels of integration: Does one size fit all?

This article extends current knowledge in the field of integrated thinking and reporting (ITR) by providing new empirical evidence on the nature and determinants of companies' levels of integration (i.e. ITR levels). Based on legitimacy theory and stakeholder theory, we empirically investigate companies' levels of integration and examine the drivers of different ITR levels. Our results suggest that companies' levels of ITR, namely Holistic, Integrated, Conservative, and Minimalist, are related to company characteristics and tend to remain consistent over time exhibiting routine and imitation. Companies with greater size, leverage, bigger board size and meetings, as well as companies operating in sensitive industries and with higher environmental performance are more likely to exhibit a Holistic or Integrated level of integration, while Minimalist and Conservative levels are driven by the same variables in opposite direction. Furthermore, at country level, economic growth, market performance, citizens freedom and lower environmental performance significantly contribute to higher integration. These results could drive companies' choices alongside policymakers’ initiatives, by identifying which levers should be pulled to achieve the desired level of integration, and suggest the need for a tailored approach rather than a one size fits all within the debate on the future developments of ITR.     

International transmission of inflation under alternative exchange rate regimes: Empirical evidence and its implications

This is a study of the transmission pattern of inflation under alternative exchange rate regimes, fixed and flexible, among the Group of Seven (G-7) countries and their subsets, including four members of the European Union (EU) and two countries from North America. Our key empirical findings are as follows. The price levels of several countries that we found move together as a cointegrated system, forming an equilibrium relationship under both fixed and flexible exchange regimes. Second, the speed of adjustment estimates show that the transmission of inflationary disturbances across countries is less pronounced under the flexible exchange rate regime than under the fixed exchange rate regime. Third, the US was found to be the main producer of inflationary innovations among G-7 countries, whereas the UK was found to be the main producer of inflationary innovations among the EU countries, regardless of exchange rate regime.     

International risk sharing and the choice of exchange-rate regime

This paper examines the argument that the fixed exchange-rate regime should be preferred to the flexible rate regime because the former allows risk sharing across countries while the latter does not. The analysis is performed in a two-country overlapping generations model, where markets are incomplete under all exchange regimes. It is shown that risks are pooled across countries when the equilibrium exchange rate is constant across states of nature, which arises under the fixed rate regime with or without capital restriction, and under the flexible rate regime without capital restriction. Risks are not pooled across countries when the equilibrium exchange rate is different across states of nature, which arises under the flexible rate regime with capital restriction. But in a model with incomplete markets, the ability to share risk across countries in the regimes with constant exchange rates does not necessarily lead to higher welfare than the inability to share risk in the regime with random exchange rates.     

Choice of exchange rate system and macroeconomic volatility of three Asian emerging economies

This study highlights the importance of choice of exchange rate system to macroeconomic stability of small-open emerging economies based on the outcomes of the recent exchange rate regime switches of three Asian countries – Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. These countries have high similarities in their economic structures, but have reacted very differently in mitigating the economic distortion of the 1997 financial crisis, in particular in the adoption of exchange rate system. The empirical results of this study show that the amplified instability of macro-variables in Thailand and Indonesia, which was due to the crisis, were not stabilized by switching the exchange rate system to a flexible regime. The volatilities, however, were effectively stabilized after the countries made the second switch – from the independent float to the managed float with no pre-announcement. For Malaysia, a switch from the managed float to the pegged system successfully reduced the volatilities. The exchange rate misalignments of the countries, except Indonesia, were also reduced when the countries switched from a flexible to a more fixed managed float system. These empirical findings thus strongly support central banks of small-open emerging economies to adopt a more fixed, rather than a more flexible system. However, the managed float system needs to couple with efficient management to ensure a smooth and stable regime.     

Assessing the Impact of Fair‐Value Accounting on Financial Statement Analysis: A Data Envelopment Analysis Approach

The historical‐cost and prudence principles have guided accounting for financial investments and tangible fixed assets in many jurisdictions around the globe. This situation might change as a consequence of the increasing number of countries adopting International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), which, to some extent, permit accounting on a fair‐value basis. It is unclear how such a change would affect the analysis of financial statements and to what extent it could modify analysts' perceptions of companies' condition and performance. This paper attempts to shed some light on this issue by restating the financial investments and tangible fixed assets of a sample of 85 Spanish insurance companies, applying fair value instead of historical‐cost‐based valuations and by simulating analyst perception of these companies' efficiency and profitability for both sets of data using data envelopment analysis (DEA). We find that the numbers on the face of the financial statements change considerably and observe that the magnitude of these changes varies between companies and classes of assets. However, only in a few cases does a change in the valuation basis lead to a relevant change in DEA scores; within our sample, the overall assessment of companies with regard to efficiency and profitability remains largely the same under both valuation bases. These findings seem to indicate that a change from historical‐cost to fair‐value accounting could alter analyst perceptions of a limited number of companies but likely will not have a major impact on the appraisal of the majority of them.     

Exchange Rate Exposure at the Firm and Industry Level

Previous work on the exposure of firms to exchange rate risk has primarily focused on U.S. firms and, surprisingly, found stock returns were not significantly affected by exchange‐rate fluctuations. The equity market premium for exposure to currency risk was also found to be insignificant. In this paper we examine the relation between Japanese stock returns and unanticipated exchange‐rate changes for 1,079 firms traded on the Tokyo stock exchange over the 1975–1995 period. Second, we investigate whether exchange‐rate risk is priced in the Japanese equity market using both unconditional and conditional multifactor asset pricing testing procedures. We find a significant relation between contemporaneous stock returns and unanticipated yen fluctuations. The exposure effect on multinationals and high‐exporting firms, however, is found to be greater in comparison to low‐exporting and domestic firms. Lagged‐exchange rate changes on firm value are found to be statistically insignificant implying that investors are able to assess the impact of exchange‐rate changes on firm value with no significant delay. The industry level analysis corroborates the cross‐sectional findings for Japanese firms in that they are sensitive to contemporaneous unexpected exchange‐rate fluctuations. The co‐movement between stock returns and changes in the foreign value of the yen is found to be positively associated with the degree of the firm's foreign economic involvement and inversely related to its size and debt to asset ratio. Asset pricing tests show that currency risk is priced. We find corroborating evidence in support of the view that currency exposure is time varying. Our results indicate that the foreign exchange‐rate risk premium is a significant component of Japanese stock returns. The combined evidence from the currency exposure and asset pricing analyses, suggests that currency risk is priced and, therefoe, has implications for corporate and portfolio managers.     

Sustainability of macroeconomic policies in selected MENA countries: Post financial and debt crises

In the wake of the recent financial and debt crises, the conduct of macroeconomic policies in the emerging MENA economies has recently become critical in determining those countries future economic situation, due to the accumulation since the early 1990s of a sizable level of external debt, and the pursuit by some countries of a fixed exchange rate regime. Using time series econometric models, this study assesses the sustainability of macroeconomic policies in a selected sample of 4 MENA countries. The empirical results point to sustainable fiscal and exchange rate policies in Tunisia and Morocco, and unsustainable external debt and exchange rate policies in Egypt and Jordan. While Egypt has recently moved to a flexible exchange rate regime, if Jordan still opts for maintaining a fixed exchange rate arrangement, it will have to implement crisis-prevention measures, namely by exercising fiscal discipline, and managing properly its external debt and foreign reserves.