利率市场化、信贷歧视与中国经济发展——基于动态一般均衡模型的分析

通过引入"信贷系数"刻画了行业间可能存在的信贷歧视现象,拓展了中国动态一般均衡模型(Chinagem),模拟了中国利率市场化改革下整体利率水平提高、行业间利率歧视消除以及金融服务增效三条路径的动态经济效应.相对于基期而言,实际利率水平上升、行业间利率歧视消除将引起投资和实际GDP下降,但有利于优化行业资源配置,改善贸易条件;金融部门服务增效促进了投资和经济增长.此外,利率市场化有助于促进我国产业结构优化升级,推动国有企业改革.     

货币反替代及其影响的动态CGE研究

现阶段存在的人民币升值趋势出现了居民增持本币资产和抛售外币资产这一"货币反替代"问题。运用动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型—MCHUGE模型分析货币反替代对当前中国宏观经济的影响及不同货币反替代程度下的走势,其仿真结果表明:人民币的小幅度反替代可以在保持中国经济平稳运行的前提下释放人民币升值压力,同时可以改善中国的贸易条件,有利于出口竞争型企业的发展,但从事初级产品生产的产业将受到不同程度的负面冲击,产出水平和就业都有所衰退。     

不同碳排放达峰情景对产业结构的影响——基于动态CGE模型的分析

依据2017年投入产出表数据,运用可计算一般均衡理论,构建包括13个中间产业部门和5个能源产业部门的动态CGE模型,考量不同碳排放达峰情景对于产业结构的影响。结果显示:碳减排政策能促进产业结构优化,包括农业、轻工业和服务业等在内的低碳产业部门在总产出中占比增加,高耗能产业部门如非金属矿物加工业、金属加工业等在总产出中占比下降;对能源产出结构影响显著,高碳能源如煤炭、石油在能源产出比例下降,低碳能源如天然气在能源产出比例增加,其中可再生能源比例上升幅度最大。鉴此,应完善碳交易市场运行配套政策和环境,加大技术创新力度,促进产业结构和能源结构优化升级。     

Political Environment and Chinese OFDI Under RMB Appreciation: A Panel Data Analysis

We examine the role of political environment (PE) in determining Chinese multinational corporations’ (MNCs) investment decisions considering the RenMinBi (RMB) exchange rate (ER) movement. System generalized method of moments, feasible generalized least squares, and fixed effect estimations are employed to conduct a panel data analysis of 92 countries for the period of 2003–2015. Our empirical results reveal that Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) responds negatively to ER risk and political risks individually. After introducing the joint effect of PE and ER movement, the results suggest that Chinese OFDI’s risk preference to PE is reversed when RMB is appreciating. We argue that Chinese firms are still risk-avert when considering investing abroad. The empirical result shed light on better understating of Chinese OFDI patterns and motivations.     

Trade Liberalization and Exports Promotion: A Dynamic and Heterogeneous Analysis Under the Case of Chile

We develop a dynamic and heterogeneous firm model that embodies a firm’s joint decisions to export and innovate and allows both decisions to affect the firm’s production growth. We then calibrate the model with data obtained from Chilean manufacturing plants between 2005 and 2007 and simulate the impact of trade liberalization under different combinations of industry age and speed of trade liberalization. On the one hand, a quickly implemented trade liberalization policy significantly increases the exports intensity of a young industry newly opening up to the world. The increase in exports intensity is greater with quicker implementation of trade liberalization. On the other hand, trade liberalization for a mature industry does not lead to a significant impact on exports intensity.     

外商对华直接投资的经济增长效应分析

随着中国经济的平稳和快速增长,外商对华直接投资呈现出不断增长的趋势。就外商对华直接投资的经济效应而言,FDI与GDP的增长率高度吻合。FDI对我国宏观经济的多个变量都产生了深远的影响,并且FDI通过影响这些变量,进而增加了国民收入水平,促进了经济增长。     

金融危机及其应对政策对我国宏观经济的影响——基于金融CGE模型的模拟分析

本文通过构建中国金融CGE模型,编制中国金融SAM表,模拟了金融危机及其应对政策对中国宏观经济的影响,并对政策效果进行了后验式评价。研究结果表明,大规模投资对增加企业收入、促进GDP增长等效果明显,减税政策能明显改善居民福利,虽然调整利率同样可以促进经济的恢复但效果并不十分明显。当经济政策能够提高居民边际消费倾向时,经济升温的步伐将加快。但应对金融危机的刺激政策存在着引发通货膨胀、不能有效刺激出口等风险,所以需要相关后续配套政策对宏观经济进行进一步调整。     

Inward FDI and Financial Constraints in Central and East European Countries

This study examines whether domestically owned firms in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) confronted higher financial constraints in their investments than did foreign-owned enterprises, and whether the domestic enterprises' financial constraints were caused by incoming foreign direct investment (FDI). In theory, foreign investment may be needed to bring in capital only initially; the subsequent investment can be financed locally. On the other hand, foreign-owned companies may be more attractive borrowers, crowding out domestic firms from imperfect host-country capital markets. Both hypotheses, however, are rejected, as the results are not consistent across different dependent variables and verification methods. There is some evidence that FDI reduced foreign subsidiaries' constraints without increasing the constraints suffered by the domestic enterprises. Tests are performed with regressions based on two alternative firm-level models, a direct one using perception-based assessment of the constraints, and an indirect one with financial indicators.     

Absorptive Capabilities,FDI, and Economic Growth in Transition Economies

This article advances the literature on economic growth and Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in transition economies by incorporating data on “absorbtive capabilities” of the host economy including R&D indicators and by enhancing the quality of data on FDI. We explore whether countries with accumulated technological and innovative capabilities gain significantly more from FDI. We find that FDI exerts an exogenous positive impact on economic growth, while FDI tends to have a larger impact on economic growth when there is sufficient absorptive capacity and when occurring in technologically more advanced transition economies. The results are robust to different specifications and consideration of endogeneity.     

河南省外商直接投资的现状及对策分析

跨国公司对外直接投资（FDI）是海外对华投资的主要形式,对各地区经济的长期发展起了重要作用。地处内陆的河南省是我国经济大省,虽然近些年在引进外商直接投资方面取得较大进展,但依旧存在着诸如外资引进质量不高、管理不善、产业投向和地区分布不均衡等问题。河南省应该扬长避短,突破地域范围条件限制,狠抓投资环境,提高引资质量,并加大外资的产业导向,提高外资管理水平;借助当前＂中原经济区建设＂的有利时机,协调省内各地市引资状况,充分利用外商直接投资以促进本省域经济的持续快速发展。     

Taxation and Foreign Direct Investment: A Synthesis of Empirical Research

This paper reviews the empirical literature on the impact of company taxes on the allocation of foreign direct investment. We compare the outcomes of 25 empirical studies by computing the tax rate elasticity under a uniform definition. The median value of the tax rate elasticity in the literature is around –3.3 (i.e. a 1%-point reduction in the host-country tax rate raises foreign direct investment in that country by 3.3%). There exists substantial variation across studies, however. By performing a meta-analysis, the paper aims to explain this variation by the differences in characteristics of the underlying studies. Systematic differences between studies are found with respect to the type of foreign capital data used, and the type of tax rates adopted. We find no systematic differences in the responsiveness of investors from tax credit countries and tax exemption countries.     

人民币实际有效汇率、FDI与中国经济增长——兼论巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应在中国的适用性

本文在VAR模型的基础上,利用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应函数,研究了人民币实际有效汇率、FDI和中国经济增长的动态关系。结果表明,长期内人民币实际有效汇率贬值,促进了FDI流入;中国经济增长促进了人民币实际有效汇率的升值,证明了巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应的存在。     

Effects of Private Ownership,Trade, and Foreign Direct Investment on Labor Productivity Growth in Transition Economies: Evidence from the Croatian Manufacturing Industry

In this study, we investigate the determinants of labor productivity dynamics in transition economies using data from Croatian manufacturing industries. Capital intensity growth and human capital accumulation have been significant contributors to stronger productivity gains. Private-sector development has positively affected productivity growth—but mostly through the increasing role of new private companies. Still, unfinished privatization represents a significant obstacle to stronger productivity gains. The effect of increasing trade openness is significant but negative, most likely owing to weak export competitiveness of Croatian companies. Neither greenfield nor (predominant) brownfield foreign direct investment inflows have contributed to higher labor productivity growth. Further privatization and structural reforms seem to be the most promising policy measures that need to be undertaken in order to achieve higher productivity gains.     

Taxing multinationals in a world with portfolio flows and R&D: Is capital export neutrality obsolete?

This paper examines recent claims that capital export neutrality no longer serves as an effective principle for the taxation of income from foreign direct investment, due to the large and growing role played by portfolio capital in financing investment and to the recognition that R&D is an important determinant of international trade and investment. In our evaluation of these claims, we find capital export neutrality appears robust. Because both domestic and foreign activities may be financed with portfolio capital, and they both produce goods that compete in the world economy, there is no compelling reason to grant a lower tax to foreign income alone. Regarding the promotion of R&D or the entry of new competitors, cutting the tax on foreign income may be no more effective than cutting the tax on domestic income. A second focus of the paper is to calculate what the residual U.S. tax rate on active foreign income actually is. Based on 1990 data this rate is negative if foreign income is defined appropriately.     

Effects of Foreign Presence in a Transition Economy: Regional and Industrywide Investments and Firm-Level Exports in Ukrainian Manufacturing

We investigate the effects of regional and industrywide foreign presence and foreign direct investment (FDI) on the export volumes of Ukrainian manufacturing firms using unpublished panel data from 1996-2000. Foreign presence through FDI may have negative competition effects on domestic firms' performance; at the same time, domestic firms' productivity may be increased by technology transfer or training and demonstration effects. From a Cournot competition model that includes negative competition and positive technology spillover effects, we hypothesize that foreign presence and FDI might positively affect domestic firms' output and exports. Our estimation results support these hypotheses, suggesting in particular that large firms and durable goods producers benefit most from foreign presence and investments.     

Fiscal Stimulus in Times of High Debt: Reconsidering Multipliers and Twin Deficits

We investigate the impact of fiscal stimuli at different levels of the government debt‐to‐GDP ratio for a sample of 17 European countries from 1970 to 2010. This is implemented in an interacted panel VAR framework in which all coefficient parameters are allowed to change continuously with the debt‐to‐GDP ratio. We find that responses to government spending shocks exhibit strong nonlinear behavior. While the overall cumulative effect of a spending shock on real GDP is positive and significant at moderate debt‐to‐GDP ratios, this effect turns negative as the ratio increases. The total cumulative effect on the trade balance as a share of GDP is negative at first but switches sign at higher levels of debt. Consequently, depending on the degree of public indebtedness, our results accommodate long‐run fiscal multipliers that are greater and smaller than one or even negative as well as twin deficit and twin divergence behavior within one sample and time period. From a policy perspective, these results lend additional support to increased prudence at high public debt ratios because the effectiveness of fiscal stimuli to boost economic activity or resolve external imbalances may not be guaranteed.     

基于VECM模型的信贷约束、家庭债务与中国宏观经济波动分析

采用1997~2013年家庭债务、贷款价值比与 GDP 增长率等变量数据,在借鉴 Kim 的模型基础上,构建 VECM 模型,检验了信贷约束、家庭债务与中国宏观经济波动之间的关系。结果表明：短期内宽松的借贷约束促进了家庭债务的增加,从而推动经济增长,但从长期来看,宽松的借贷约束会导致家庭债务过高,阻碍长期经济增长;与居民消费率、家庭债务等变量相比,贷款价值比、利率对宏观经济波动的影响较大。因此,政府决策部门应制定合理的消费金融政策,居民应通过优化家庭资产组合,以实现家庭债务的可持续性增长,从而促进经济增长。     

我国区域利用外资的结构、问题与对策——以湖南省为例

2009-2018年湖南利用外资的产业结构、来源结构、地区分布结构、方式结构发生了积极的变化,同时也存在亟待改进的问题:产业结构中第一产业比重小,来源结构中过于倚重港台资金,地区分布集中于京广铁路线,独资企业占比太重等。为此,坚持不懈地推进统筹兼顾的引资战略,提升引资引技过程中自主创新的程度,注重疫情防控中引资环境的营造,以促进湖南外资工作持续快速长远发展。     

A Dynamic Model of the Firm: Structural Explanations of Key Empirical Findings

We derive a dynamic model of the firm in the spirit of the trade‐off theory of capital structure that explains firm behavior in terms of firm characteristics. We show our model is consistent with many important findings about the cross‐section of firms, including the negative relations between profitability and leverage, and between dividends and investment‐cash flow sensitivities. The model also explains the existence of zero‐debt firms and their observed characteristics. These results have been used to challenge the trade‐off theory and the assumption of perfect capital markets. We revisit these critiques and provide structural explanations for the regularities we replicate.     

内蒙古经济发展与工业污染关系的动态分析

本文结合内蒙古区情,对内蒙古经济发展和环境污染关系进行动态分析。首先,根据研究目的进行指标的选取。其次,构造经济发展综合指数,利用灰色预测模型对经济发展综合指数进行两期预测,进一步说明内蒙古经济发展情况。再次,运用单位根检验得出序列一阶差分后均平稳,属于同阶单整序列,满足协整检验的条件,由协整检验得出工业三废增速和经济增长率存在长期协整关系,通过用差分后的数据建立VAR模型进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析,得出经济发展和工业环境污染的双向作用机制：经济增长率与工业三废排放量增速互相有不同程度的正向冲击,工业三废之间作为有机整体互相影响从而加速工业环境的恶化。最后结合分析结果提出走新型工业化道路的对策。