Remittances and Currency Crisis: The Case of Developing and Emerging Countries

Employing the first-generation currency crisis model of Flood and Garber (1984), I explore the financial effects of migrants' remittances on the economies of developing and emerging countries in a currency crisis. The model implies that remittances can contribute to a reduction in the likelihood of a currency crisis and appreciation in foreign exchange rates via the promotion of foreign exchange reserves. Panel estimation with twelve developing and emerging countries that previously experienced financial crises confirms the implications, suggesting that migrants' remittances can play a significant role in mitigating financial constraints and thus contribute to financial stability.     

Remittances and the Brain Drain: Do More Skilled Migrants Remit More?

In most destination countries, immigration policies are tiltedmore and more in favor of skilled individuals. Whether thisshift hurts economic prospects in sending countries, as arguedby the traditional brain drain literature, is somewhat controversial.The most recent literature focuses on the link between skilledoutmigration and educational achievements in the home country.This article emphasizes a different channel. It considers theargument that skilled migrants raise economic welfare at homeby sending a relatively larger flow of remittances. While skilledmigrants typically earn more, and so might be expected to remitmore, they are also likely to spend more time abroad and toreunite with their close family in the host country. These secondtwo factors should be associated with a smaller propensity toremit. Thus, the sign of the impact of the brain drain on totalremittances is an empirical question. A simple model has beendeveloped showing that skilled migrants may indeed have a lowerpropensity to remit from a given flow of earnings. An empiricalequation of remittances is estimated as a measure of the braindrain in developing countries using the Docquier and Marfouk (2004)data set. Evidence is found that the brain drain is associatedwith a smaller propensity to remit.     

Immigration,remittances and business cycles

Using data on border enforcement and macroeconomic indicators from the U.S. and Mexico, we estimate a two-country business cycle model of labor migration and remittances. The model matches the cyclical dynamics of unskilled migration, and documents the insurance role of remittances in consumption smoothing. Over the cycle, immigration increases with the expected stream of future wage gains, but it is dampened by a sunk emigration cost. Migration barriers slow the adjustment of the stock of immigrant labor, enhancing the volatility of unskilled wages and remittances. Changes in border enforcement have asymmetric welfare implications for the skilled and unskilled households.     

Use of migrants' remittances in labor-exporting countries

For many developing countries, migrant workers' remittances comprise a substantial proportion of foreign exchange earnings. The most important macroeconomic requisite for inducing remittances through official channels is a realistic single rate of exchange for the currency of the labor exporting country. Convenient facilities for holding remittances in approved foreign currency accounts with banks in the country of origin are another useful incentive for attracting migrants' funds. In addition, policies must be formulated to ensure the optimal use, sectoral and regional, of cash remittances. There is a choice between consumption, saving, and investment. Generally, remittances have contributed little to the longterm development potential of most labor exporting countries. This reflects the lack of a coherent policy to mobilize the savings from remittances into productive investment. The 1st priority, given the lack of financial and managerial skills in many migrant households, is the creation of a specialized institution or specialized units within existing banks for remittances. It is important as well to ensure that remittances are utilized to inculcate a savings psychology among recipients. This can be achieved through the creation of contractual savings schemes and the linkage of savings to credit facilities. Such measures are contingent upon an adequate spread of banking facilities in rural areas and the development of an appropriate intermediate financial technology in the labor exporting countries. Institutional banking will have to adapt lending procedures to the viability of projects rather than to the availability of collateral. Advantageous interest rates in rural areas are also necessary to redress the urban bias of the financial system in developing countries.     

Monetary policy,bank lending and corporate investment

The purpose of this study is to shed light on the chain of causality from macroeconomic financial policy to the microeconomic investment function. Concretely, we aim to provide an in-depth analysis of the relationships between the monetary policy of central banks, the loan policy of commercial banks, and the investment behavior of firms. We focus on countries that conduct their monetary policy under the inflation-targeting framework. Our empirical analysis with data from Germany, Switzerland and Thailand provides several new insights. First, after controlling for the US monetary policy, the monetary policy in Germany and Thailand appears to influence the banks' lending rate in the short run (i.e. within two months), whereas the monetary policy in Switzerland seems to be ineffective at influencing the banks' lending rate in the short run. Second, our results show that the banks' lending rate has a negative effect on their loans and that this negative effect is weakened by their growth opportunities. Third, we find that the supply of bank loans plays a more pivotal role in determining firms' investment than the lending rate. Last but not least, we document that neither the lending rate nor the loan-to-assets ratio moderates the sensitivity of the firms' investment to growth opportunities.     

Are Remittances Insurance? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in the Philippines

Do remittances sent by overseas migrants serve as insurancefor recipient households? In a study of how remittances fromoverseas respond to income shocks experienced by Philippinehouseholds, changes in income are found to lead to changes inremittances in the opposite direction, consistent with an insurancemotivation. Roughly 60 percent of declines in household incomeare replaced by remittance inflows from overseas. Because householdincome and remittances are jointly determined, rainfall shocksare used as instrumental variables for income changes. The hypothesiscannot be rejected that consumption in households with migrantmembers is unchanged in response to income shocks, whereas consumptionresponds strongly to income shocks in households without migrants.     

Accrual anomaly and mandatory adoption of IFRS: Evidence from Germany

This study examines the effect of mandatory adoption of IFRS on the accrual anomaly in Germany. Using the setting in Germany between 2002 and 2008, we find that the accrual anomaly occurs between 2002 and 2004 (pre-IFRS period) but disappears between 2006 and 2008 (post-IFRS period). Results are consistent after extending the test period to 2010 and controlling for analysts' cash forecasts. We also find that German firms with more significant improvements in analysts following, forecast accuracy, forecast dispersion, and earnings management following mandatory adoption of IFRS in 2005 have greater decline of the accrual anomaly between 2006 and 2008. Overall, our findings suggest that IFRS adoption together with improved reporting enforcement significantly reduces the accrual anomaly in Germany.     

Foreign shareholders,relative foreign policy uncertainty and corporate cash holdings

Studies have shown that foreign investors hedge risks stemming from economic and political uncertainty in the home country through outward investment. This paper studies how foreign investors' home country risk affects their overseas investment and the host country firms' corporate cash holdings. We find that relative foreign EPU, defined as the difference between foreign investors' home country EPU and the host country of investment EPU, negatively impacts the host country firms' cash holdings through their influences on managerial decision-making. This negative relationship arises from firms' precautionary and transaction motives as foreign investors perceive lower corporate risk and better investment opportunities in the host country firms. Good corporate governance is also instrumental in yielding this negative relationship. The reduction in cash holdings due to high relative foreign EPU is more pronounced if foreign investors' home country legal environment is weaker, the two countries are further apart, and there is little trade partnership between them.     

Continental European accounting model and accounting modernization in Germany

Classification techniques based on one or few dimensions are widely used in research studies and textbooks to explain and predict the development of accounting systems internationally. However, their usefulness in international accounting has been limited in today's globalized world. For example, in the context of the EU, IFRS are required for consolidated accounting, while national accounting systems continue to be the dominant system for unconsolidated accounting in many countries. Using Germany as a case study, the objective of this paper is to examine whether Germany can still be classified within the Continental European model of accounting following the Act to Modernize Accounting Law (Bilanzrechts-modernisierungsgesetz — BilMoG), which was promulgated on May 29, 2009. This Act introduced some major reforms to the German Commercial Code (Handelsgesetzbuch — HGB), such as removing the close connection to tax rules and introducing new recognition and valuation regulations, which changed traditional principles of orderly accounting (Grundsätze ordnungsmäßiger Buchführung). As a result, the current German approach of financial reporting separates Germany from the traditional Continental European model of accounting and moves it somewhere on a spectrum between the traditional Continental European model of accounting and the Anglo-American model of accounting.     

Determinants of the Savings and Fixed Asset Holdings of Turkish Migrants in Germany

This paper investigates the determinants of the bank savings and fixed assets of Turkish migrants residing in Germany. We find that migrants with firmer roots in Germany are more likely to hold savings and fixed assets in Germany, and those with stronger links to Turkey are more likely to hold savings and fixed assets in Turkey. As expected, income is a positive determinant of savings and fixed assets in both countries. Although age has a positive impact on savings and fixed assets in Turkey, it has a negative impact on savings in Germany. These results shed new light on Turkish migrants' short- and long-term savings in Turkey and Germany.     

Does Size Influence the Suitability of the IFRS for Small and Medium-Sized Entities? – Empirical Evidence from Germany

This study is set within the context of the IASB's initiative to develop an IFRS for small and medium-sized entities (SMEs). It is based on a questionnaire survey of small and medium-sized entities in Germany exploring the suitability of the IASB's proposed SME standard for entities of different size classes. Quantitative size criteria are used in many national jurisdictions to differentiate financial reporting requirements between entities. However, there is very little empirical evidence on the question whether the economic size of an entity has an impact on the economic issues that should be regulated by accounting rules and on management's preferences for specific accounting methods. This paper addresses these deficiencies by exploring to what extend an entity's economic size has an impact on its international exposure, the relevance of specific accounting issues and preparers’ perceptions on costs and benefits associated with the application of selected accounting methods. Our findings are ambiguous. Size effects are revealed with regard to the structure of entities, their international exposure and to a large extent to the relevance of particular accounting issues. Cost and benefit assessments of accounting methods also differ within and between the size clusters investigated, albeit a generalisation of size as a factor determining the cost-benefit considerations of firms with regard to particular accounting treatments and methods is not supported by the study's results.     

A logit model of retail investors' individual trading decisions and their relations to insider trades

Among the various external information sources that influence individual investors' trading decisions, no research has considered the important influence of insiders' transactions. Retail investors might copy the behavior demonstrated by insiders' trading; therefore, this study establishes an approach to estimate the buying probability for a certain stock by a certain investor at a certain point in time and analyzes whether insider trade reports influence this probability. Using a sample of more than 270,000 retail trades in Germany between 2008 and 2009, along with more than 3000 insider trades in the same period, we find evidence of copying of insiders' trades by retail investors. The basic mimicry hypothesis holds, even when we consider an information event hypothesis and an insider attention effect hypothesis as alternative explanations. A robustness test also supports the findings.     

Should remittances be taxed or subsidized?

This paper analyzes the optimal nonlinear schedule of taxes and subsidies on remittances from emigrants. The analysis identifies conditions under which emigrants remitting small amounts of income face positive average and marginal subsidies on their remittances, whereas emigrants remitting relatively large amounts of income face positive marginal taxes. In this way, the tax system improves the distribution of income by indirectly taxing the “brain drain,” while simultaneously encouraging remittances that tend to go to low-income residents.     

Common and country-specific components in national stock prices

Previous studies on cointegration among national stock markets show conflicting results. This paper designs a general state space model to investigate the importance of a common world-wide component and the existence of country-specific components in national stock market indices. For G7 countries, there exist country-specific permanent and transitory components. Based on a variance decomposition analysis, Germany, Italy, and Japan's country-specific permanent shocks account for about half of their total permanent shocks. Most of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom's transitory shocks are country-specific. G7 countries do not seem to cointegrate around one common stochastic trend, and potential long-run international diversification benefits still exist.     

政治冲突与国际贸易:韩国萨德事件对中韩贸易的影响分析

运用双重差分模型,依据中韩两国产品贸易数据,考量萨德事件对中韩贸易的影响。结果表明：萨德事件引发的中国消费者抵制运动使得韩国向中国的出口损失幅度达到近30%,受影响的产品主要集中在替代性较高的日常生活消费品领域,韩国对华电子产品贸易并未受到萨德事件冲突的影响,侧面说明了中国官方表现出相对理性与克制的态度,韩国向中国出口的后果更多地来自民间自发性消费抵制;冲突带来的进口替代效应使得第三方出口国如日本、美国、德国等国家从萨德事件中受益,这些国家扩大了对华出口,但是这种进口替代效应具有短期性,随着时间的推延逐渐消失。     

Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe

Foreign currency loans represent an important feature of recent financial developments in CEECs. This might pose a serious challenge for macroeconomic stability. Against this background, we study the determinants of foreign currency loans of households, using data on the behavior of households in nine CEECs. Our results reveal that foreign currency loans are driven by households’ lack of trust in the stability of the local currency and in domestic financial institutions. Moreover, special factors including remittances and expectations of euro adoption play an important role in selected regions. The financial crisis reduced foreign currency borrowing, but there is some indication this effect might be only temporary.     

Do Workers’ Remittances Promote Access to Finance? Evidence from Asia-Pacific Developing Countries

This study empirically analyzes the impact of remittance inflows on access to formal financial services using panel data on thirty-eight developing countries in Asia and Oceania between 2001 and 2012. Our results indicate that remittances help to enlarge the national branch network of commercial banks. These findings are robust to changes in the dependent variable, namely, the number of commercial bank branches per person or per area, as well as the estimation method. With regard to control variables, we find that income level and economic openness have positive impacts on the number of bank branches, whereas the inflation rate has a negative impact.     

Economic policy uncertainty and risk spillovers in the Eurozone

This paper focuses on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on risk spillovers within the Eurozone and contributes to these two growing literatures. To this end, we adapt the two-step procedure developed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (forthcoming) in the framework of financial systemic risk to the sovereign bond market. Accordingly, we attempt (i) to measure the extent to which distress affecting one given country's sovereign spreads can affect the Eurozone's bond market as a whole and then (ii) to identify the determinants of risk spillovers by estimating a panel data model with macroeconomic state variables and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices introduced by Baker et al. (2013) as regressors. EPU indices considered concern the four largest Eurozone countries, i.e. Germany, France, Italy and Spain, as well as the United States. The model is estimated with quarterly data for ten countries representing the bulk of debt issuances within the Eurozone over a period ranging from Q4/2008 to Q2/2013, which is characterized by historically high dispersion of sovereign bond spreads either across time or across countries. Our results support the idea that economic policy uncertainty in the core economies of the Eurozone, i.e. Germany and France, as well as in the largest periphery countries, i.e. Italy and Spain, can create an environment likely to exacerbate the transmission of risk arising from abnormal developments of individual countries' sovereign spreads to the Eurozone bond market as a whole. In this respect, our results plead for larger effort of Eurozone “leaders” to reduce the uncertainty surrounding their economic policy in periods of crisis not only to avoid adverse effects on their own economies but also to reduce the risk of a destabilization of the Eurozone sovereign bond market as a whole.     

Sub-nationals' risk premia in fiscal federations: Fiscal performance and institutional design

The recent debt crisis in Europe highlighted the importance of institutional design and, in particular, bail-out clauses in determining States' risk premia in fiscal or quasi-fiscal federations. This paper examines the determinants of sub-national governments' risk premia in fiscal federations using secondary market data for the USA, Canada, Australia and Germany. It finds that, as for central governments, fiscal fundamentals matter in the pricing of risk, and sub-national governments with higher public debt and larger deficits pay higher premia. However, this relationship is not uniform across federations and it differs with institutional arrangements. In particular, market pricing mechanisms are less effective in presence of explicit or implicit guarantees from the central government. We show that when sub-national governments depend on high transfers from the central government (i.e., when there is some form of implicit guarantee from the center), markets are less responsive to sub-national governments' fiscal fundamentals. Using primary market data, the paper also shows that high transfer dependency lowers the probability of sub-national governments to borrow on capital markets.     

Assessing the impact of an EU financial transactions tax on asset volatility: An event study

Under the context of EMU debt and financial crisis, we assess the impact of EMU's announcement of a Financial Transactions tax (FTT) on bond and equity volatilities for seven countries, namely Germany, France (core EMU), Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain (periphery EMU). In the absence of historical data on volume and volatility of transactions of such a tax, we utilize the event study methodology. The selected event date considering the FTT announcement was found significant for core EMU's equity portfolio and periphery EMU's bond portfolio. Moreover, under GARCH models, we found that the announcement effect of FTT increases the volatility of both core EMU's equity portfolio as well as periphery EMU's bond portfolio.