中印利用FDI特点探析

印度自实施经济改革后,利用外商直接投资（FDI）总量虽逐年上升,与中国相比仍不具有任何可比性.但通过本文的比较可以看出,印度在吸收FDI的来源地结构、行业结构、人力资源构成以及法制建设等方面,较中国具有一定的优势,即相比而言中国的宏观经济指标占优,而印度的部分微观经济指标则占优.借鉴印度的经验,笔者提出我国在FDI引入中应注重目标定位、加强高新技术产业投资、制定符合WTO规则的法律和法规等.     

企业并购长期市场绩效与绩效推断假说——来自中国股票市场的经验证据

对企业并购长期市场绩效与影响因素的研究是目前理论界关注的焦点。以中国上市公司1998~2004年发生并购的公司为样本,研究并购公司在并购后三年的市场绩效,结果表明:并购后三年内并购公司的市场绩效都小于对照组的市场绩效;虽然管理者有高估自己能力的可能,但是对绩效推断假说的检验表明,无法用管理者是否过度自信解释价值型公司和成长型公司在并购后长期市场绩效的差异。     

我国银行业的市场结构与绩效研究

本文吸收、借鉴和利用现有的关于银行业绩效的研究成果，选择产业组织学的经验研究方法，引入产权结构这个重要因素作为对SCP框架的扩展，从市场结构和产权结构的二维空间中讨论银行效率和绩效，力图揭示银行业市场化特征的变化对银行企业绩效的影响和作用机理，从而发现改善我国银行业绩效的方案应该是双管齐下，一方面改进市场结构，另一方面改革产权，两者协调配套、相互促进。     

中国期货市场套期保值绩效实证研究

为了研究中国期货市场的套期保值绩效，本文利用确定套期保值比率的OLS、B-VAR、ECHM和EC—GARCH四个模型和套期保值绩效的衡量指标，对中国期货的小麦、大豆、铜和铝的套期保值比率和绩效进行了实证研究，使用1998～2004年中国期货与现货价格的周数据来进行单位根和协整检验等计量分析。研究显示，金属期货品种的套期保值比率和绩效比农产品期货品种的套期保值比率和绩效都要高。考虑了协整关系的ECHM和EC—GARCH模型的套期保值比率和绩效比没有考虑协整关系的OLS和B—VAR模型高，样本区间外的套期保值绩效优于样本区间内的绩效。本文认为采用ECMH和EC—GARCH模型进行套朔保值是最佳的策略。     

中国银行业税负比较、绩效影响与对策选择

本文通过历史比较与国际比较,指出中国银行业虽然综合税负不断下降,但仍较国外偏重,进而运用面板数据模型论证了相对过重的税收负担对中国银行业经营绩效产生负效应,最后,提出降低我国银行业税负的若干政策建议,以应对经济全球化和国际金融危机的双重挑战,提高中国银行业在开放金融体系中的竞争力。     

人民币实际有效汇率、FDI与中国经济增长——兼论巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应在中国的适用性

本文在VAR模型的基础上,利用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应函数,研究了人民币实际有效汇率、FDI和中国经济增长的动态关系.结果表明,长期内人民币实际有效汇率贬值,促进了FDI流入;中国经济增长促进了人民币实际有效汇率的升值,证明了巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应的存在.     

不同市场结构下农村信用社经营绩效研究

本文对陕西省85家农村信用社市场份额与经营绩效的关系进行分析。整体来讲,农村信用社贷款市场份额与其经营绩效呈负相关。进一步分析不同市场集中度情况,贷款占比50%以上的农村信用社市场份额与经营绩效负相关,而贷款占比50%以下的农村信用社两指标正相关。这就表明应建立适度竞争的县域农村金融市场,以提高农信社经营效率,充分发挥其主力军作用,从而尽快构建现代农村金融体系。     

我国对外贸易的FDI与国内银行信贷促进效应的比较分析

关于对外贸易与FDI之间关系的研究有很多,但对于FDI与国内金融部门特别是国内银行信贷在对外贸易的不同影响这个问题上却很少有人作出比较,而本文就是以这个作为研究主题,尝试解决以下几个问题:改革开放以来我国FDI流入与国内银行信贷对对外贸易的作用有何不同?在不同时期内,两者又具有怎么样的不同关系?等等.     

我国银行业市场结构与市场绩效的实证研究

本文运用非参数的数据包络分析法计算我国银行业的X-效率和规模效率,在此基础上对市场结构与市场绩效间的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明在我国银行业市场中"结构-行为-绩效"假说和"有效结构"假说均不成立;作者还进一步从动态的角度,考察了我国银行业市场结构的变化对整体经营绩效的影响,发现"银行内效应"决定了我国银行业绩效变化的方向;但包括市场份额效应、交叉效应和进入效应在内的再配置效应也很重要,特别是行业绩效下降的时期,正的"再配置效应"改善了我国银行业经营的整体业绩,遏制了整体业绩的进一步下降.     

人民币汇率形成机制改革对我国FDI产业选择的影响研究

2005年7月,人民币汇率形成机制进行重大改革,对中国经济特别是涉外经济产生了深远影响。本文运用Logistic模型研究了汇率形成机制改革对我国外商直接投资(FDI)产业选择的影响。实证结果显示,人民币汇率机制改革使FDI在中国的产业布局发生改变的概率提高了38.24%。从FDI产业变动的数据来看,汇率形成机制改革后,FDI出现了向第三产业集聚的现象,而且从第三产业内各行业来看,FDI重点加大了对批发零售、科学研究、技术服务和居民服务等行业的投资力度。因而,本文认为,人民币汇率形成机制改革在一定程度上有利于我国产业结构的优化升级。     

Employee Downsizing Strategies: Market Reaction and Post Announcement Financial Performance

Empirical studies have generally reported insignificant market reactions to employee downsizing. In an effort to reconcile ongoing layoffs with inconclusive empirical results, we segregated our sample by downsizing strategy and examined employee layoff announcements made by Fortune 500 firms during the 1993–1995 period. Unlike previous studies, we find a positive market reaction for layoff announcements related to revenue refocusing. Market reaction with respect to layoff announcements involving cost cutting was insignificant while weak evidence was found for a negative market reaction to layoffs related to plant closings. Consistent with the market reaction, post announcement analysis revealed that downsizing in conjunction with revenue refocusing (plant closing) improved (reduced) firm financial performance and that revenue refocusing firms significantly outperformed cost cutting and plant closing firms over the three–year post announcement period.     

Entry Mode Choice and Performance: Evidence from Taiwanese FDI in China

This paper examines entry mode choices between wholly owned subsidiaries (WOSs) and joint ventures (JVs) and the impact on performance for Taiwanese foreign direct investment in China. Taiwan and China share common cultural traits, so Taiwanese investors inherently prefer WOSs because these investors are acquainted with local conditions in China. This paper shows that even if WOSs are a natural choice, transaction cost theory is applicable in explaining the adoption of JVs by Taiwanese firms when investing in China. Firms that choose WOSs generally have higher sales growth and superior profitability. However, the smaller the subsidiary and the less experienced the firm, the more likely that JVs will have better performance.     

奶业资源与市场背离问题分析

奶业将逐步发展成为中国现代农业的中心产业之一。由奶制品的特殊性决定,市场发育与资源配置的协调是奶业发展的必要条件。目前我国奶业市场规模小,但扩容空间大,地区间发展不平衡,市场的重心在东南地区;我国奶资源规模、容量处在发展的初级阶段,区域布局和资源配置表现出不平衡性,资源重心在“三北”地区,而且产业化程度和商品化程度都不高;随着奶业市场的不断扩大,市场与资源分布的矛盾将日益突出。要保证我国奶业的健康发展,就必须正视并协调解决这一问题。     

Boards of Directors, Market Discipline and Firm Performance

Abstract:   The board of directors is generally seen as an important internal governance structure. However, the empirical evidence on the board‐performance relationship is not conclusive. On the other hand, a growing literature suggests that different control mechanisms, either internal or external to the firm, can interact with each other and affect performance. One such important factor is product market competition. The objective of the study is to investigate further the board‐performance relationship taking into consideration the potential effect of market competition. More precisely, the study analyzes the combined effect of boards of directors' characteristics, and market discipline on firm performance. Overall, the results suggest that competition has a positive and significant impact on firm profitability and productivity. Moreover, this determinant factor creates the conditions for which the board‐performance relationship is supported. In other words, for boards to be effective, firms should be exposed to a competitive environment.     

Seasonality, Market Timing and Performance Amongst Benchmarks and Mutual Fund Evaluation

Abstract:  Mutual fund performance is normally measured by comparing results of active management with those obtained by one or several benchmarks that should represent the fund's investment. In this context, this paper examines the effect on mutual fund assessment if a relevant benchmark is omitted. This effect is analysed in three elements of active management: stock selection, market timing, and seasonality. The latter is defined as fund management at specific moments of time with the objective of achieving positive abnormal returns to improve performance. For a sample of Spanish mutual funds, we find that the omission of style benchmarks, particularly that corresponding to small-cap stocks, leads to greater evidence of negative market timing and positive seasonality at year beginning. However, the positive abnormal returns of the seasonality at year end, month end and especially at the beginning of July hold regardless of benchmark omission. The paper therefore also analyses the relation between performance and seasonality, finding that positive seasonality at year beginning and at July beginning improves performance; however, at other moments it implies a possible window dressing strategy in mutual fund management.     

异地贷款的目标市场与农村信用社跨县经营的边界设置

异地贷款在促进区域经济发展的同时,极大地拓展了银行盈利空间,分散了信贷风险,降低了营运成本。异地贷款对于银行绩效的改进对于地方性金融机构业务发展具有重要启示意义。目前,山东省农村信用社经营范围普遍局限于本地区,应该鼓励其积极发展异地业务,实现资金跨区域流动。鉴于农村信用社与股份制银行存在诸多差异,因此异地业务模式也应有所区别,主要表现在异地业务首先在本市之内跨县经营,目标客户锁定县域优质中小企业,以银团贷款作为组织方式,根据客户风险制定贷款利率。     

中美信用评级市场发展比较与启示

本文结合中美信用评级市场发展脉络,从评级机构、收费模式、监管模式等方面分析两国信用评级市场发展过程中的不同特征,认为美国信用评级市场健康发展的原因在于评级机构重视市场声誉以及监管机构注重加强引导与监管。借鉴美国经验,我国的信用评级机构应该注重加强信用评级机构的内部治理,提高信用评级机构的国内外影响力;同时加强外部环境建设和信息披露制度建设,建立科学统一的外部评级机构管理制度。     

信贷市场、资本市场与我国的储蓄投资转化率

储蓄向投资转化是金融体系最基本的功能。本文首先从理论上论证信贷市场、资本市场在储蓄投资转化过程中是竞争又合作的动态互补关系，接着以灰色关联度的数量方法论证我国目前正处于金融体系历史演变阶段中的弱市场导向阶段，信贷市场仍然在储蓄向投资转化的过程中占主体地位，以股市为代表的资本市场对储蓄投资转化率的影响较小，但已呈现出向上发展的态势。我国应在加大银行部门发展的基础上大力发展资本市场，并从法律政策、政府监管等方面进行完善，充分发挥资本市场的作用，建立适合中国自身特点的金融结构。     

信贷市场、资本市场与我国的储蓄投资转化率

储蓄向投资转化是金融体系最基本的功能.本文首先从理论上论证信贷市场、资本市场在储蓄投资转化过程中是竞争又合作的动态互补关系,接着以灰色关联度的数量方法论证我国目前正处于金融体系历史演变阶段中的弱市场导向阶段,信贷市场仍然在储蓄向投资转化的过程中占主体地位,以股市为代表的资本市场对储蓄投资转化率的影响较小,但已呈现出向上发展的态势.我国应在加大银行部门发展的基础上大力发展资本市场,并从法律政策、政府监管等方面进行完善,充分发挥资本市场的作用,建立适合中国自身特点的金融结构.     

Preliminary Evidence on Takeover Target Returns in Spain: A Note

This paper measures the share price returns to Spanish takeover targets over the period 1990 to 1994. Using several estimation and testing methods, we show that target shareholders gain significant abnormal returns in the announcement period. In the first part of the year before the announcement period, firms that become targets do not show significant abnormal returns, though there is some significant upturn in the two months before the bid.