当前中国吸收外国直接投资面临的形势分析

<正> 一、当前我国吸收FDI的有利因素 首先,中国已于1999年11月15日与美国达成双边协议,加入WTO的最大障碍已经排除,普遍预计将于2000年底加入世界贸易组织。这是我国吸收FDI最大的有利因素。我国加入WTO后,服务业等投资领域的开放,市场准入程度的提高将使外国投资者获得更多的投资机会。同时我国承诺遵守WTO规则,与国际规则接轨,法制化、规范化程度将会提高,可使外商打消对我国政策多变、随意、不透明的疑虑,对在华投资能够做出预测,产生良     

FDI、金融结构与福利分析

通过构建一个古诺竞争的扩展模型,分析FDI对国内金融结构的反射作用机制,并运用动态GMM估计方法实证检验了FDI作用于国内金融结构对社会福利的影响。结果表明,FDI对金融结构存在弥补作用,但不存在优化作用;FDI作用于金融结构对社会福利的影响是不确定的,此取决于国内金融融资和FDI两种手段的融资成本等多种外部因素。     

国有经济参与跨国并购的困境与思考

1994年之后,全球并购投资超过了绿地投资,成为FDI流动的最主要方式。全球FDI的这种变化趋势也影响到中国,目前,中国吸引外资方式面临着历史性的转折点,中国资本参与全球并购市场的前景广阔。     

金融市场、FDI技术溢出与经济增长

本文对国外有关金融市场影响FDI溢出效应进而影响经济增长的理论文献进行了综述,提出要使金融市场对FDI的技术溢出产生正效应进而促进经济增长,中国就必须继续加大金融改革的步伐,在促进金融市场对外开放的同时,大力促进金融市场的对内开放、切实改善中小企业的金融环境、成立科技开发银行、大力完善中国的资本市场。     

资本市场融资、经济增长与产业结构升级——基于中国省际面板数据的检验

本文利用扩展柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,分析我国金融深化的背景下,利用多层次资本市场的不同渠道资本融资、经济增长以及产业结构升级之间的动态关系。文章利用29个省、市、自治区2006~2010年的面板数据,实证结果发现:多层次资本市场融资对经济增长具有显著的促进效应,但债券市场与FDI对经济增长的作用较弱。总量促进经济增长的背后,不同的融资渠道之间的相互作用不尽相同:银行信贷与债券对股票市场筹资存在显著的"溢出效应",FDI对股票市场筹资存在显著的"挤出效应",说明股票市场融资可以替代FDI在实体经济中的作用。随后对多层次资本市场与产业结构转型关系的数据进行实证。研究发现:股票融资、债券融资在一定程度上推动了中国的经济结构转型,但FDI与结构转型负相关,银行信贷与经济转型的关系不显著。     

China Semiconductor Hot Sectorto Invest

China semiconductor indus try is a hot area for investment. Since 2000, the sec tor has attracted foreign direct investment up to $20 billion. The broad electronics sector has accounted about 50% of total FDI. According to IC Insight data, China became the world largest IC market in 2005, with21% of the world market share.     

越南的金融困局及对中国的警示

2008年5月,越南主要经济指标均超过了安全警戒线,金融市场急剧动荡。越南片面追求经济增长的经济政策导向难辞其咎:政府巨额的投资导致财政赤字;大规模的设备进口导致贸易赤字;过于迷信外资作用,金融开放过快;货币政策过于宽松;对资产价格泡沫危害认识不足;在出现通胀苗头时犹犹豫豫,错失最好的调控时机。越南金融动荡对中国的影响有限。借鉴越南教训,中国应严防通胀,防止境外热钱流入境内兴风作浪,对人民币升值采取谨慎态度,防止股市大起大落。     

新中国70年对外直接投资:发展历程、理论逻辑与政策体系

通过梳理新中国成立70年以来中国对外直接投资的五个阶段,即艰难探索、尝试发展、调整发展、快速发展和全面发展的历程及其政策演变发现：动因变迁深刻影响区位与行业变迁、制度创新是中国对外直接投资特有的驱动因素、中国对外直接投资必将成功应对“逆全球化”挑战。同时,根据实践历程与理论探讨构建了对外直接投资政策体系结构图并进行分析,认为我国应加强对外直接投资法律体系建设、强化对外直接投资扶持政策、支持民营企业对外投资、提高国有企业对外投资绩效、增强政府与企业参与国际规则制定的能力。     

区域金融规模、效率及其对FDI溢出效应的影响研究——来自长江三角洲经济圈的实证分析和检验

FDI促进经济增长的能力与一个国家或地区的金融发展水平（规模、效率）联系紧密。我国现有研究较多关注的是全国状况或者一个省区状况,本文则将研究视角定位于＂经济圈＂,选择我国FDI集中流入的长三角经济圈作为研究对象,将金融发展分解为＂量＂和＂质＂两个维度,对长三角经济圈的金融规模、效率对FDI溢出效应影响进行了系统研究。论文实证分析和检验的结果发现：长三角经济圈金融信贷规模的扩大反而抑制了FDI技术溢出的吸收,而金融市场效率的改进所产生的效果则刚好相反,即能够显著放大FDI对区域经济的正贡献率。     

Migration, Trade, and Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico

Part of the rationale for the North American Free Trade Agreementwas that it would increase trade and foreign direct investment(FDI) flows, creating jobs and reducing migration to the UnitedStates. Since poor data on illegal migration to the United Statesmake direct measurement difficult, data on migration withinMexico, where census data permit careful analysis, are usedinstead to evaluate the mechanism behind predictions on migrationto the United States. Specifications are provided for migrationwithin Mexico, incorporating measures of cost of living, amenities,and networks. Contrary to much of the literature, labor marketvariables enter very significantly and as predicted once possiblecredit constraint effects are controlled for. Greater exposureto FDI and trade deters outmigration, with the effects workingpartly through the labor market. Finally, some tentative inferencesare presented about the impact of increased FDI on Mexico–U.S.migration. On average, a doubling of FDI inflows leads to a1.5–2 percent drop in migration.     

Foreign direct investment and forward hedging

This paper examines the behavior of a risk-averse multinational firm (MNF) making investment in a foreign country under exchange rate uncertainty. To hedge the exchange rate risk, the MNF has access to an unbiased currency forward market. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is irreversible and sequential in that the MNF can acquire additional capital after the exchange rate uncertainty is completely resolved. The MNF as such possesses a real (call) option that is rationally exercised whenever the foreign currency has been substantially appreciated relative to the domestic currency. We show that the MNF's optimal initial level of sequential FDI is always lower than that of lumpy FDI, while the expected optimal aggregate level of sequential FDI can be higher or lower than that of lumpy FDI. We further show that the presence of the currency forward market improves the MNF's incentives to make FDI, both ex-ante and ex-post.     

Financing Renewable Energy Projects in Major Emerging Market Economies: Evidence in the Perspective of Sustainable Economic Development

This research paper aims to explore the role of FDI inflows and stock market development on the promotion of renewable energy consumption. Furthermore, study investigates the effect of renewable energy consumption on CO₂ emissions and economic output across a panel of Brazil, China, India, and South Africa. Study utilizes annual data from 1990 to 2012 and employs various robust panel econometric techniques. The findings confirm that both FDI inflows and stock market development play an important role in promoting renewable energy consumption. The results also reveal that renewable energy consumption helps to mitigate the growth of CO₂ emissions and promotes economic development.     

外资进入与国内价值链地位提升

近年来,国际经济形势日趋复杂严峻,全球价值链纵向分工趋于缩短或转移至新地点,构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局是我国当前经济转型和未来可持续发展的关键。本文利用中国30个省份区域间投入产出表,结合探索性空间数据分析方法和静态、动态多种空间权重矩阵,系统考察了外资进入对我国区域国内价值链地位提升的影响。研究发现,外资进入对国内价值链地位提升具有显著的促进作用;FDI进入地区不仅可以获得直接的技术溢出,而且对相邻地区产生“非自愿”的溢出效应,但省份内FDI溢出效应作用更为明显。在改变计量模型、变量测算形式后,上述结论仍然成立,且不同分组样本(不同技术水平、外资进入程度以及是否沿海地区)对应的检验结果存在异质性。市场化程度强化了外资进入对国内价值链地位提升的促进作用。进一步地,外资进入通过提高国内价值链地位对我国产业结构升级产生正向影响,且直接效应比间接效应更为显著。     

基于市场分割的地方政府补贴对地区贸易出口的影响

选取2002年到2015年14年间中国30个省（直辖市、自治区）数据,采用系统GMM模型,考量中国地方政府补贴对中国地方贸易出口量的影响。结果发现：地方政府补贴对地区贸易出口的影响主要是通过市场分割实现,但FDI会弱化地方政府补贴对地区贸易出口的正向效应。     

拉丁美洲、中东欧及东亚新兴市场国家金融部门外国直接投资研究

20世纪90年代中期以后,新兴市场国家金融部门吸收的FDI数量迅速增长。本文认为,从FSFDI迅速兴起的直接原因与主要特征来看,拉丁美洲国家与东亚新兴市场国家的FSFDI属于"冲击诱导型"或"危机导向型",而中东欧转轨国家的FSFDI则属于"改革推进型";从FSFDI的来源与布局结构上看,新兴市场国家FSFDI的来源国在区域上相对固定但集中程度不尽相同。中国金融部门在引进FDI的过程中应注意避免外资来源国过于集中,应在银行部门构建外资、民资与国资共存的股权结构,积极引导本土银行对外投资,并加强审慎有效的金融监管。     

Bilateral investment treaties and foreign direct investment: Evidence from emerging market firms

Bilateral investment treaties (BITs) help developing countries attract foreign direct investment (FDI) from developed countries. However, whether BITs matter for emerging market firms’ (EMFs) FDI is unclear. This paper investigates how BITs affect EMFs’ FDI locations using conditional logit models with firm-level panel data from 2003 to 2015. The results show that BITs can help host countries attract FDI from emerging market countries. BITs work alongside good institutions to increase the attractiveness of FDI, irrespective of a host country being developed or not.     

Does FDI Increase Industrial Energy Consumption of China? Based on the Empirical Analysis of Chinese Provinces Industrial Panel Data

The article builds the simultaneous equations model of the total effect of FDI influencing China’s industrial energy consumption, Chinese provinces industrial panel data as the study sample, uses 2SLS and GMM methods to empirically estimate the equations model, and elastic analysis to calculate the magnitude and direction of the different effects at the path of FDI. The results show that the total effect of FDI influencing China’s industrial energy consumption is negative, the entry of foreign capital increases by 1%, the total effect is to make China’s industrial energy consumption increase by 0.19%, the negative FDI scale effect (0.15%) and FDI composition effect (0.21%) overwhelm the positive FDI technique effect (0.17%).     

An Information-Based Model of Foreign Direct Investment: The Gains from Trade Revisited

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is observed to be a predominant form of capital flows to emerging economies, especially when they are liquidity-constrained internationally during a global financial crisis. The financial aspects of FDI are the focus of this paper. We analyze the problem of channelling domestic savings into productive investment in the presence of asymmetric information between the managing owners of firms and other portfolio stakeholders. We explore the role played by FDI in reviving equity-financed capital investment for economies plagued by such information problems. In the presence of information asymmetry, the paper identifies, however, how FDI gives rise to foreign overinvestment as well as domestic undersaving. The gains from trade argument (applied to intertemporal trade) is re-examined in this case of informational-asymmetry-driven FDI. We show that the gains could be sizable when the domestic credit market is either under-developed or failing as a result of a financial crisis. But with a well-functioning domestic credit market, the gains turn into losses. Surprisingly, capital may flow into the country even when the autarkic marginal productivity of capital in the domestic economy falls short of the world rate of interest. In such a situation, capital should have efficiently flown out rather than in, and FDI is a social loss-generating phenomenon.     

Cross-border banking,bank market structures and market power: Theory and cross-country evidence

Patterns in cross-border banking have changed since the global financial crisis. This may affect domestic bank market structures and macroeconomic stability in the longer term. In this study, I theoretically and empirically analyze how different modes of cross-border banking impact bank concentration and market power. I use a two-country general equilibrium model with heterogeneous banks developed by DeBlas and Russ (2010a) to grasp the effect of cross-border lending and foreign direct investment in the banking sector on bank market structures. The model suggests that both cross-border lending and bank FDI mitigate concentration. Empirical evidence from a panel dataset of 18 OECD countries supports the theoretical predictions: higher volumes of bank FDI and of cross-border lending coincide with lower Herfindahl-indexes in bank credit markets.     

外资银行进入中国市场的时机选择研究

本文运用生存模型,实证检验了外资银行进入中国市场的时机确定及其影响因素,结果发现,规模越大、资本量越充足及对中国市场的经验越丰富的外资银行越早进入中国市场;同时外资银行母国对中国的投资规模越大、与中国的双边贸易额越高,外资银行越早进入中国市场。另外,研究还发现亚洲地区的银行业进入中国市场并没有明显的先行优势。