The war on terror and its impact on the long-term volatility of financial markets

In this article, we analyze how the U.S.' declaration of the war on terror and the subsequent invasion of Iraq has impacted long-term volatility of stock markets around the world. In doing so, we utilize two statistical techniques: wavelet-based variance analysis and a semi-parametric fractional autoregressive (SEMIFARIMA) model. Our sample comprises stock and commodity indices worldwide for the sample period January 2000-June 2006. Specifically, we consider four geographic regions: the Americas, Africa/Middle East, Europe, and Asia/Pacific. We conclude that political instability in the Middle East had its greatest impact on the volatility of financial markets around the beginning of the Iraq war, and it mostly hit developed markets (e.g., United States, United Kingdom, and Japan). Thereafter, for most sampled indices, volatility has exhibited a decreasing trend to reach eventually levels even lower than that observed at the beginning of our sample. An exception is Egypt's CMA and the Dow Jones AIG all commodities. We think that the latest political conflicts in the Middle East and their impact on the price of oil may be the most likely driving force of such volatility in those two indices. Specifically, among Egypt's main export products are petroleum and petroleum products.     

Modeling Time-Varying Volatility and Expected Returns: Evidence from the GCC and MENA Regions

The aim of this study is to investigate empirically the underlying nexus of stock market returns and volatility in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by using the GARCH-M model. We find that volatility is time-varying in all countries, which indicates substantial variation in the degree of risk across time. However, we do not find empirical support that this time-varying volatility significantly explains expected returns, except in the case of Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and the MENA region portfolio. Our findings show that stock return volatility is negatively correlated with stock returns in these three markets under the assumption of investor risk aversion. This lends some support to the hypothesis of a volatility-driven negative relationship in the literature. The policy implications of our results are discussed.     

Stock returns and volatility following the September 11 attacks: Evidence from 53 equity markets

September 11 attacks matter, and why not? Given that globalization has integrated financial markets, the magnitudes of the effect of the September 11 attacks on global markets are expected to be pervasive. We used data from 53 equity markets to investigate the short term impact of the September 11 attacks on markets' returns and volatility. Our empirical findings indicate that the impact of the attacks resulted in significant increases in volatility across regions and over the study period. However, stock returns experienced significant negative returns in the short-run but recovered quickly afterwards. Nevertheless, we find that the impact of the attacks on financial markets varied across regions. The implication here is that the less integrated regions (e.g., Middle East and North Africa) are with the international economy, the less exposed they are to shocks.     

Dynamic linkages among equity markets in the Middle East and North African countries

The relaxation of security laws and regulations in emerging markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) provides abundant opportunities for foreign investors. These markets exhibit high-expected returns and substantial volatility. In this paper, we investigate the lead/lag relationship between the MENA countries and regions. We find no market causality or spillover from one country to another in the North Africa region. Our results for the Levant region reveal that there are linkages between stock markets in this region. The results for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region show that there is more interaction and linkage in the GCC region than in the North Africa and Levant regions. An unexpected result is that UAE's stock market leads all the markets in this region. Finally, we investigate linkages among the three regions. We find that GCC influences the other two regions.     

Empirical Analysis of Stock Returns and Volatility: Evidence from Seven Asian Stock Markets Based on TAR-GARCH Model

This paper investigates the time-series behavior of stock returns for seven Asian stock markets. In most cases, higher average returns appear to be associated with a higher level of volatility. Testing the relationship between stock returns and unexpected volatility, the evidence shows that four out of seven Asian stock markets have significant results. Further analyzing the relationship between stock returns and time-varying volatility by using Threshold Autoregressive GARCH(1,1)-in-mean specification indicates that the null hypothesis of no asymmetric effect on the conditional volatility is rejected for the daily data. However, the null cannot be rejected for the monthly data.     

The determination and international transmission of stock market volatility

This paper extends the literature on low-frequency analysis of the causes and transmission of stock market volatility. It uses end-monthly data on stock market returns, interest rates, exchange rates, inflation, and industrial production for five countries (Britain, France, Germany, Japan, and the US) from July 1973 to December 1994. Efficient portfolios of world, European, and Japanese/US equity are first constructed, the existence of multivariate cointegrating relationships between them is demonstrated, and the transmission of conditional volatility between them is described. The transmission of conditional volatility from world equity markets and national business cycle variables to national stock markets is then modeled. Among the main findings are: first, world equity market volatility is caused mostly by volatility in Japanese/US markets and transmitted to European markets, and second, changes in the volatility of inflation are associated with changes of the opposite sign in stock market volatility in all markets where a significant effect is found to exist. To the extent that the volatility of inflation is positively related to its level, this implies that low inflation tends to be associated with high stock market volatility.     

Trading volume,time-varying conditional volatility,and asymmetric volatility spillover in the Saudi stock market

Despite the well known importance of volatility–volume relationship, there is a paucity of research on this topic in emerging markets. We attempt to partially fill this gap by investigating volatility–volume relationship in the most important exchange market in the Middle East. We test the effect of trading volume on the persistence of the time-varying conditional volatility of returns in the Saudi stock market. Overall our results support the mixture of distribution hypothesis at the firm level. We also use two different proxies for information arrival, intra-day volatility, and overnight indicators. We find that these are good proxies for information and are important as contemporaneous volume in explaining conditional volatility. We also test for the volatility spillover direction between large- and small-cap portfolios. Our results show that the spillover effect is larger and statistically significant from large to small companies.     

Realizing stock market crashes: stochastic cusp catastrophe model of returns under time-varying volatility

This paper develops a two-step estimation methodology that allows us to apply catastrophe theory to stock market returns with time-varying volatility and to model stock market crashes. In the first step, we utilize high-frequency data to estimate daily realized volatility from returns. Then, we use stochastic cusp catastrophe theory on data normalized by the estimated volatility in the second step to study possible discontinuities in the markets. We support our methodology through simulations in which we discuss the importance of stochastic noise and volatility in a deterministic cusp catastrophe model. The methodology is empirically tested on nearly 27 years of US stock market returns covering several important recessions and crisis periods. While we find that the stock markets showed signs of bifurcation in the first half of the period, catastrophe theory was not able to confirm this behaviour in the second half. Translating the results, we find that the US stock market’s downturns were more likely to be driven by the endogenous market forces during the first half of the studied period, while during the second half of the period, exogenous forces seem to be driving the market’s instability. The results suggest that the proposed methodology provides an important shift in the application of catastrophe theory to stock markets.     

Does institutional ownership increase stock return volatility? Evidence from Vietnam

The literature on institutional ownership and stock return volatility often ignores small emerging countries. However, this issue is more profound, due to the large size of institutional investors and small stock market size, in emerging equity markets. This paper examines the effects of the institutional ownership on the firm-level volatility of stock returns in Vietnam. Our data cover most of non-financial firms listed on the Ho Chi Minh City stock exchange for the period 2006–2012. Employing different analysis techniques for panel data and controlling for possible endogeneity problems, our empirical results suggest that institutional investors stabilize the stock return volatility. Moreover, we document that: i) the stabilizing effect of institutional investor ownership is higher in dividend paying firms, and ii) if firms are paying out more dividends, this stabilizing effect is greater. Our results outline the important role of institutional investors in maintaining the stability in emerging stock markets.     

Stock return volatility,operating performance and stock returns: International evidence on drivers of the ‘low volatility’ anomaly

This study highlights the link between stock return volatility, operating performance, and stock returns. Prior studies suggest that there is a ‘low volatility’ anomaly, where firms with a low stock return volatility out-perform firms with a high stock return volatility. This paper confirms that low volatility stocks earn higher returns than high volatility stocks in emerging markets and developed markets outside of North America. We also show that low volatility stocks have higher operating returns and this might explain why low volatility stocks earn higher stock returns. These results provide a partial explanation for the ‘low volatility effect’ that is independent from the existence of market anomalies or per se inefficiencies that might otherwise drive a low volatility effect. We emphasize the importance of controlling for stock return volatility when analyzing operating performance and stock performance.     

Does Trading Volume Contain Information to Predict Stock Returns? Evidence from China's Stock Markets

This paper examines empirical contemporaneous and causal relationships between trading volume, stock returns and return volatility in China's four stock exchanges and across these markets. We find that trading volume does not Granger-cause stock market returns on each of the markets. As for the cross-market causal relationship in China's stock markets, there is evidence of a feedback relationship in returns between Shanghai A and Shenzhen B stocks, and between Shanghai B and Shenzhen B stocks. Shanghai B return helps predict the return of Shenzhen A stocks. Shanghai A volume Granger-causes return of Shenzhen B. Shenzhen B volume helps predict the return of Shanghai B stocks. This paper also investigates the causal relationship among these three variables between China's stock markets and the US stock market and between China and Hong Kong. We find that US return helps predict returns of Shanghai A and Shanghai B stocks. US and Hong Kong volumes do not Granger-cause either return or volatility in China's stock markets. In short, information contained in returns, volatility, and volume from financial markets in the US and Hong Kong has very weak predictive power for Chinese financial market variables.     

Idiosyncratic return volatility and the role of firm fundamentals: A cross-country analysis

We investigate the relation between fundamental idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns idiosyncratic volatility using data from 56 countries. We find a strong positive relation between fundamental idiosyncratic volatility and idiosyncratic volatility of returns. This association, however, seems to be entirely concentrated in the developed economies, and we find no effect in the emerging markets. Specifically, fundamental idiosyncratic volatility does not lead to more idiosyncratic return volatility in countries with poor legal institutions and weak shareholder protection laws.     

Terrorism,country attributes,and the volatility of stock returns

This study investigates the interplay between terrorism and finance, focusing on the stock return volatility of American firms targeted by terrorist attacks. We find terrorism risk is an important factor in explaining the volatility of stock returns, which should be taken into account when modelling volatility. Using a volatility event-study approach and a new bootstrapping technique, we find volatility increases on the day of the attack and remain significant for at least fifteen days following the day of the attack. Cross-sectional analysis of the abnormal volatility indicates that the impact of terrorist attacks differs according to the country characteristics in which the incident occurred. We find that firms operating in wealthier, or more democratic countries, face greater volatility in stock returns relative to firms operating in developing countries. Firm exposure varies with the nature of country location, with country wealth and level of democracy playing an important role in explaining the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Our results show that despite significant terrorist events this past decade, stock markets in developed countries have not taken terrorist risk into sufficient consideration.     

Correlation in price changes and volatility of major Latin American stock markets

This paper seeks to investigate the short-run dynamics between five major Latin American stock markets (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico). Unlike previous research on these markets, the joint distribution of stock returns is estimated as a vector autoregression (VAR) with innovations following an exponential GARCH process. Our study is carried out using closing stock market prices covering the period 25 May 1992 to 16 May 1997. The results revealed that these countries have significant first and second moment time dependencies. In general, the markets of these countries exhibit stronger volatility than mean spillovers. Further, our results indicate that these markets exhibit stronger volatility spillovers than other regions of the world. In view of these dependencies, the conditional correlations between these markets are different from their conventional simple counterparts. Since the correlation is the catalyst in portfolio diversification and an essential parameter in the calculation of the cost of capital, we anticipate that international investors and corporate managers will find our results very interesting.     

Causal and Dynamic Relationships among Stock Returns,Return Volatility and Trading Volume: Evidence from Emerging markets in South-East Asia

This paper examines the causal and dynamic relationships among stock returns, return volatility and trading volume for five emerging markets in South-East Asia—Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. We find strong evidence of asymmetry in the relationship between the stock returns and trading volume; returns are important in predicting their future dynamics as well as those of the trading volume, but trading volume has a very limited impact on the future dynamics of stock returns. However, the trading volume of some markets seems to contain information that is useful in predicting future dynamics of return volatility.     

Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Changes: International Evidence

We investigate interdependencies between stock returns and exchange rate changes for six industrialised countries, namely the US, the UK, Japan, Germany, France and Canada, by testing for volatility spillovers using a bivariate EGARCH model. Volatility spillovers from stock returns to exchange rate changes are found for all countries except Germany. These spillovers are symmetric in nature. No evidence is found of volatility spillovers from exchange rate changes to stock returns for any country. Spillovers from stock returns to exchange rate changes have increased since October 1987. This finding is consistent with the notion that international financial markets have become increasingly integrated.     

Characteristics of permanent and transitory returns in oil-sensitive emerging stock markets: The case of GCC countries

The estimates suggest that for both return components there exists a statistically significant high volatility regime for all the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets and the oil market. On the other hand, the results for the low volatility state of both components are mixed. The individual GCC markets vary in terms of sensitivity to volatility and its duration; with Saudi Arabia and Oman having the highest overall return volatility. All the GCC markets are much less volatile than that of the more open, crisis-ridden, oil-exporting Mexico. All GCC returns move in the same direction, whether in terms of total return, fundamentals or fads under both volatility regimes. The correlations between themselves and with Mexico, the oil price and the Morgan Stanley Capital International Index (MSCI) returns are weak compared to the correlations among stock returns of Germany, Japan UK and the US [Bhar, R., Hamori, S., 2004. Empirical characteristics of the permanent and transitory components of stock returns: analysis in a Markov-switching heteroscedasticity framework. Economics Letters 82, 157–165]. Mexico has considerably higher correlation with both MSCI and the oil price than all the GCC countries.     

Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Changes: International Evidence

We investigate interdependencies between stock returns and exchange rate changes for six industrialised countries, namely the US, the UK, Japan, Germany, France and Canada, by testing for volatility spillovers using a bivariate EGARCH model. Volatility spillovers from stock returns to exchange rate changes are found for all countries except Germany. These spillovers are symmetric in nature. No evidence is found of volatility spillovers from exchange rate changes to stock returns for any country. Spillovers from stock returns to exchange rate changes have increased since October 1987. This finding is consistent with the notion that international financial markets have become increasingly integrated.     

MEAN AND VOLATILITY SPILLOVERS ACROSS MAJOR NATIONAL STOCK MARKETS: FURTHER EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

This paper provides additional insight into the nature and degree of interdependence of stock markets of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Germany, and it reports the extent to which volatility in these markets influences expected returns. The analysis uses the multivariate GARCH-M model. Although they are considered weak, statistically significant mean spillovers radiate from stock markets of the U.S. to the U.K., Canada, and Germany, and then from the stock markets of Japan to Germany. No relation is found between conditional market volatility and expected returns. Strong time-varying conditional volatility exists in the return series of all markets. The own-volatility spillovers in the U.K. and Canadian markets are insignificant, supporting the view that conditional volatility of returns in these markets is “imported” from abroad, specifically from the U.S. Significant volatility spillovers radiate from the U.S. stock market to all four stock markets, from the U.K. stock market to the Canadian stock market, and from the German stock market to the Japanese stock market. The results are robust and no changes occur in the correlation structure of returns over time.     

Spillover and Cojumps Between the U.S. and Chinese Stock Markets

There is an urgent need to understand the spillover and cojump effects between the U.S. and Chinese stock markets. The paper finds that since July 2005, the U.S. stock market has caused short-run spillover effects on returns on the Chinese stock market. More specifically, price changes in the United States can be used to predict both closing-to-opening and closing-to-closing returns on the Chinese stock market on the next day. However, there is no significant volatility spillover between the two markets. Both markets have shown stronger cojump behavior since the subprime crisis. The return relationships between the two stock markets are robust.