Are Initial Returns and Underwriting Spreads in Equity Issues Complements or Substitutes?

The objective of this paper is to analyze the joint behavior of underwriting spreads and initial returns on equity issues for a large sample of issues over a 21-year period. Traditional empirical approaches to the determination of these direct and indirect issuing costs view them as independent. Using a three-stage least squares approach, we find these costs to be positively and significantly related. In the case of seasoned equity offerings, our results are robust to replacing initial returns with the offer price discount. We also find that low quality issuers are charged higher underwriting spreads and initial returns when compared to high quality issuers.     

Is Economic Growth Good for Investors?1

When measured over long periods of time, the correlation of countries' inflation‐adjusted per capita GDP growth and stock returns is negative. This result holds for both developed countries (for which the correlation coefficient is –0.39 using data from 1900–2011) and emerging markets (the correlation is –0.41 over the period 1988–2011). And this means that investors would have been better off investing in countries with lower per capita GDP growth than in countries experiencing the highest growth rates. This seems surprising since economic growth is generally assumed to be good for corporate profits. In attempting to explain this finding, the author begins by noting that economic growth can be achieved through increased inputs of capital and labor, which don't necessarily benefit the stockholders of existing companies. Growth also comes from technological advances, which do not necessarily lead to higher profits since competition among firms often results in the benefits accruing to consumers and workers. What's more, it's important to recognize that growth has both an expected and an unexpected component. And one explanation for the negative correlation between growth and stock returns is the tendency for investors to overpay for expected growth. But there is another—and in the author's view, a more important—part of the explanation. Along with the negative correlation between long‐run average stock returns and per capita growth rates, the author also reports a strong positive association between (per share) dividend growth rates and overall stock returns. Such an association is not surprising since unusual growth in dividends is a fairly reliable predictor of increases in future earnings. But another effect at work here is the role of dividends—and, in the U.S., stock repurchases too—in limiting what might be called the corporate “overinvestment problem,” the natural tendency of corporate managers to pursue growth, if necessary at the expense of profitability. One of the main messages of this article is that corporate growth adds value only when companies reinvest their earnings in projects that are expected to earn at least their cost of capital—while at the same time committing to return excess cash and capital to their shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks.     

Why Do Insiders Sell Shares Following IPO Lockups?

We examine long run returns subsequent to the lockup expiration of firms having gone public. We find that returns are negatively associated with abnormal selling by senior executives but unrelated to selling by other insiders. Our results suggest that even though lockup expirations provide an initial opportunity for insiders to diversify their holdings by selling a firm's shares, sales by senior executives are still motivated in part by private information. Sales by other insiders, on the other hand, are consistent with portfolio diversification.     

Who Makes the Choice on IPO Underwriting Methods? Issuers Versus Underwriters

Using unique Taiwanese initial public offering (IPO) features, we examine whether the underwriters control the issue method choice (the expected revenue collection hypothesis) or whether the issuers make the choice in the best interests of the pre‐IPO shareholders (the expected net wealth gain hypothesis). We find that the choice of issue method is consistent with maximizing pre‐IPO shareholders’ expected net wealth gains. The findings also suggest that most IPO issuers do not choose auctions. Though we offer insights into why IPO auctions have been declining, we note that this evidence cannot completely explain the total disappearance of auctions in many countries.     

Is Concentration a Good Idea? Evidence from Active Fund Management

In this paper, we examine whether mutual fund managers in Taiwan produce superior performance through concentrated investment strategy, and find that mutual funds with higher degree of concentration have higher investment performance and lower risk during the period 2001–2009. Moreover, when the degree of industry concentration of fund holdings is higher, there is less impact on stock market performance. However, the premium of the market portfolio has more impact on the performance of funds when there is lower degree of industry concentration. We also find that the stock-picking and market-timing abilities of mutual fund managers result in funds with high degree of industry concentration having more returns and lower risks than the funds with low degree of industry concentration.     

Is Germany a model for managers?

Most American managers have a hard time making sense of Germany. The country has a fraction of the resources and less than one-third the population of the United States. Labor costs are substantially higher, paid vacations are at least three times as long, and strong unions are deeply involved at all levels of business, from the local plant to the corporate boardroom. Yet German companies manage to produce internationally competitive products in key manufacturing sectors, making Germany the greatest competitive threat to the United States after Japan. The seemingly paradoxical nature of the German economy typically evokes one of two diametrically opposed responses. The first is to celebrate the German economy as a "model" worth emulating--indeed, as the answer to declining U.S. competitiveness. The alternative, more skeptical response is to question Germany's staying power in a new, more competitive global economy. According to Kirsten Wever and Christopher Allen, the problem with both points of view is that they miss the forest for the trees. Observers are so preoccupied with praising--or blaming--individual components of the German economy that they fail to see the dynamic logic that ties these components together into a coherent system. In their review of recent research on the German business system, Wever and Allen argue that managers can learn an important lesson from Germany. In the global economy, competition isn't just between companies but between entire socioeconomic systems. Germany's ability to design a cohesive economic and social system that adapts continuously to changing requirements goes a long way toward explaining that country's competitive success.     

Is Foreign Exchange Risk Priced in Bank Loan Spreads?

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This study investigates the effects of foreign exchange (FX) exposure on bank loan spreads. Private bank loans are a major form of corporate...     

Is a share buyback right for your company?

Contrary to popular wisdom, buybacks don't create value by raising earnings per share. But they do indeed create value, and in two very different ways. First, a buyback sends signals about the company's prospects to the market--hopefully, that prospects are so good that the best investment managers can make right now is in their own company. But investors won't see it that way if other, negative, signals are coming from the company, and it's rarely a good idea for companies in high-growth industries, where investors expect that money to be spent pursuing new opportunities. Second, when financed as a debt issue, a buyback is essentially an exchange of equity for debt, conferring the traditional benefits of leverage--a tax shield and a discipline for managers. For such a buyback to make sense, a company would need to have taxable profits in need of shielding, of course, and be able to predict its future cash flows fairly accurately. Justin Pettit has found that managers routinely underestimate how many shares they need to buy to send a credible signal to the markets, and he offers a way to calculate that number. He also goes through the iterative steps involved in working out how many shares must be purchased to reach a target level of debt. Then he takes a look at the advantages and disadvantages of the three most common ways that companies make the actual purchases--open-market purchases, fixed-price tender offers, and auction-based tender offers. When a company's performance is lagging, a share buyback can look attractive. Unfortunately, a buyback can backfire--unless executives understand why, when, and how to use this powerful and risky tool.     

Is Carl Icahn Good for Long-Term Shareholders? A Case Study in Shareholder Activism

The increase in activist campaigns by entrepreneurial investors and hedge funds in the past decade has raised considerable debate about their benefits for average shareholders. Although critics have longed charged that the proposals for change by such active investors typically do not increase the longer-run efficiency and values of the targeted companies, more recent studies have provided evidence of success, both in terms of increasing the market value of such companies and achieving at least some of the investors' expressed objectives. This article attempts to add to these findings by examining the case of a single well-known investor, Carl Icahn, whose career as a shareholder activist now spans at least three decades. The authors report, first of all, that Icahn's targets have included companies from a remarkable variety of industries, and that his stated objectives have varied with the industries of the targets. Although more of Icahn's targets appear to have been overleveraged than underleveraged, a significant minority have had payouts ratios that were judged to be too low and more cash than they needed. In terms of Icahn's effect on other shareholders, the authors report a significant positive stock price reaction—on the order of 10%—to the announcement of Icahn's taking a position in the target firm. When examining the subsequent performance of the target firms, the authors found a very large difference between those firms that were either taken private or acquired (within 18 months)—over a third of the target companies—and those that remained independent. The authors report that although the acquired group achieved significant positive stock market returns, the firms that remained independent suffered very negative (-60%) returns. Although Icahn's proposed changes could be responsible, as critics charge, for the performance of the latter group, the authors suggest that the success of many of these companies in fending off Icahn without enacting most of his proposed reforms is a more plausible explanation. At the same time, the authors report that Icahn was successful in achieving at least one of his stated objectives in well over half of the cases in which the target companies remained independent.     

The risk of financial crises: Is there a role for income inequality?

Could macroeconomic factors such as income inequality be the real root cause of financial crises? We explore a broad variety of financial and macroeconomic variables and employ a general-to-specific model selection process to find the most reliable predictors of financial crises in developed countries over a period of more than 100 years. Our in-sample results indicate that income inequality has predictive power beyond loan growth and several other financial variables. Out-of-sample forecasts for individual predictors show that their predictive power tends to vary considerably over time, but income inequality has predictive power in each forecasting period.     

Fair Lending Analysis of Mortgage Pricing: Does Underwriting Matter?

This paper evaluates the impact of underwriting decision on fair lending risk assessments of loan pricing. Using data from one national bank that contain a rich set of decisioning variables, we compare the estimation results from the single equation model with those from the sample selection type of models. Then we conduct three simulation studies to evaluate the sample selection bias and omitted variable bias under various scenarios. We demonstrate that the single equation approach could potentially generate biased estimates of pricing disparities when it fails to consider the impact of the underwriting decision.     

Is Financial Regulation Good or Bad for Real Estate Companies? – An Event Study

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - This study investigates how three regulatory reforms undertaken in the aftermath of the global financial crisis have affected returns of real...     

Is the Risk of Bankruptcy a Systematic Risk?

Several studies suggest that a firm distress risk factor could be behind the size and the book-to-market effects. A natural proxy for firm distress is bankruptcy risk. If bankruptcy risk is systematic, one would expect a positive association between bankruptcy risk and subsequent realized returns. However, results demonstrate that bankruptcy risk is not rewarded by higher returns. Thus, a distress factor is unlikely to account for the size and book-to-market effects. Surprisingly, firms with high bankruptcy risk earn lower than average returns since 1980. A risk-based explanation cannot fully explain the anomalous evidence.     

Is there a postnormal time? From the illusion of normality to the design for a new normality

Ziauddin Sardar's characterization of ‘postnormal times’ elegantly captures the mood of despair, uncertainty and insecurity in the West due to the multiple shocks of terrorism, economic recession and climate change. However, the prevailing mood in India, most of Asia and developing countries in general is confidence and optimism for the future. The label ‘postnormal times’ is inappropriate for resurgent Asia and other ‘emerging markets’. Similarly, these countries - as illustrated by examples from India - need more modernization and efficiency to save and improve the lives of their citizens. This paper argues that the seeming normality of twentieth century in the West was an illusion arising out of the ignorance and neglect of environmental and health consequences of unbridled industrial growth. The distorted assumptions of neoclassical economics are largely to blame for this. It is now time to pay back for those excesses. A new normality will emerge only by addressing these distortions and by creating democratic global institutions that can reflect the changed global balance of power of the 21st century. The intellectuals, opinion-makers and leaders of the world have to exercise their ethical responsibility and creative imagination to enable this new normality to emerge.     

Renewable Governance: Good for the Environment?

We conjecture that board renewal mechanisms—those substantive enough to renew the thinking of the board—are required before investors can address the mismatch between their preferences regarding environmental sustainability and what insiders at firms are actually doing. We identify the adoption of majority voting for directors and the introduction of a female director as two corporate governance mechanisms potentially strong enough to renew a board's thinking on sustainability. Using a sample of 3,293 firms from 41 countries, along with quasi-exogenous shocks to board renewal mechanisms in Canada and France, we find that both board renewal mechanisms are associated with significantly higher future environmental performance. Further tests provide suggestive evidence that board renewal is more strongly associated with environmental performance in settings with better institutions and more motivated institutional investors. These results suggest the importance of board renewal for alignment of firm policies with investor preferences around the world.     

Which Factors Affect Bond Underwriting Fees? The Role of Banking Relationships

The question of which factors are relevant in determining bond underwriting fees is empirically investigated by analysing 2,202 bond issues completed by European firms during the 1993 – 2003 period. Four major results emerge from the analysis. First, the introduction of the single currency in 1999 has generated an increase in competition among banks, and, as a result, a reduction in underwriting fees. Second, a strong relationship with the issuer's main bank reduces the level of underwriting fees. Third, new issuers are charged with lower underwriter fees relative to firms that have completed issues without building any strong relationship with a bank. Fourth, higher reputation banks charge lower underwriting fees. The implications of these findings are also discussed.     

Is gold a safe haven or a hedge for the US dollar? Implications for risk management

We assess the role of gold as a safe haven or hedge against the US dollar (USD) using copulas to characterize average and extreme market dependence between gold and the USD. For a wide set of currencies, our empirical evidence revealed (1) positive and significant average dependence between gold and USD depreciation, consistent with the fact that gold can act as hedge against USD rate movements, and (2) symmetric tail dependence between gold and USD exchange rates, indicating that gold can act as an effective safe haven against extreme USD rate movements. We evaluate the implications for mixed gold-currency portfolios, finding evidence of diversification benefits and downside risk reduction that confirms the usefulness of gold in currency portfolio risk management.     

Is Dual Agency in Real Estate a Cause for Concern?

We examine the effects of the regulation of dual agency in residential real estate transactions, for 10,888 transactions in Long Island, New York in 2004–2007. We find that dual agency has an overall null effect on sale price, but includes two opposing forces where buyer and seller interests might be compromised. The link between dual agency and timing of sales is less clear. These findings are robust to endogeneity bias. Although it appears dual agency does cause some market distortions, our analysis yields little evidence that prohibiting dual agency in real estate will increase welfare.     

Is There a Case for Industrial Policy? A Critical Survey

What are the underlying rationales for industrial policy? Doesempirical evidence support the use of industrial policy forcorrecting market failures that plague the process of industrialization?This article addresses these questions through a critical surveyof the analytical literature on industrial policy. It also reviewssome recent industry successes and argues that public interventionshave played only a limited role. Moreover, the recent ascendanceand dominance of international production networks in the sectorsin which developing countries once had considerable successimplies a further limitation on the potential role of industrialpolicies as traditionally understood. Overall, there appearsto be little empirical support for an activist government policyeven though market failures exist that can, in principle, justifythe use of industrial policy.