A Survey of Emerging Derivatives Markets

This paper summarizes theoretical and empirical research on the roles and functions of emerging derivatives markets and the resulting implications on policy and regulations. Previous studies revealed that commodity derivatives markets offered an effective and welfare-improving method to deal with price volatility. Financial derivatives markets have helped to support capital inflows into emerging market economies. On the other hand, the use of financial derivatives has led to exacerbated volatility and accelerated capital outflow. There is a consensus that derivatives are seldom the cause of a financial crisis but they could amplify the negative effects of the crisis and accelerate contagion. Previous studies of derivatives markets have supported the hedging role of emerging derivatives markets. Empirical results from a few emerging countries suggest a price discovery function of emerging futures markets. The findings on the price stabilization function of emerging derivatives markets are mixed. Finally, recent research has documented that constructive development of derivatives markets in emerging market economies needs to be supported by sound macroeconomic fundamentals as well as updated financial policies and regulations.     

Derivatives Usage in Emerging Markets Following the GFC: Evidence from the GCC Countries

In this article, we avail of International Accounting Standards IFRS 7 to investigate the usage and motivation of hedging by firms in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates). The results of our panel and cross-sectional data logistic regressions indicate a focus on foreign exchange exposure, interest rates risk, and commodity risk in this region. We find that the use of hedging instruments in this region is also influenced positively by the firm’s size and, to a lesser degree, positively by the firm’s gearing ratio and negatively by its propensity to growth. The level of activity, nevertheless, remains lower than is the case for firms globally.     

The Impact of Institutional Differences on Derivatives Usage: a Comparative Study of US and Dutch Firms

This paper examines the influence of institutional differences on corporate risk management practices in the USA and the Netherlands. We compare results to surveys in each country using a strategy that corrects for differences over industry and size classes across the Dutch and US samples. We document several differences in the firms’ uses and attitudes towards derivatives and attempt to attribute them to the differences in the institutional environments between the USA and the Netherlands. We find that institutional differences appear to have an important impact on risk management practices and derivatives use across US and Dutch firms.     

IFRS Adoption in Emerging Markets: The Case of Jordan

The aim of this study is to research the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in Jordan, which was one of the first Middle Eastern emerging economies to adopt IFRS. The paper investigates the related factors that pressure and prevent such adoption over time, and illustrates the developmental aspects of such adoption. An interpretive methodology is employed, and perceptions of the study's participants are analysed regarding the adoption of IFRS in Jordan, which is an area that is under researched. Semi‐structured interviews were undertaken to collect Jordanian experts’ perceptions. Based on the empirical data analysis and prior theoretical and empirical literature, an adoption model was developed, which can serve future studies as well. The model illustrates the paradox of accounting changes in emerging economies, in which the actual conditions that pressure IFRS adoption are also the conditions that prevent full adoption. The model also provides an explanation of the implementation process of IFRS in emerging economies at both country and corporation levels. It combines practical features and related theories in an integrative model seeking to explain the phenomenon of IFRS as a new accounting regulation change.     

Taxation and Integrated Financial Markets: The Challenges of Derivatives and Other Financial Innovations

The past decade has witnessed the explosive growth of a multiplicity of new instruments which have altered the financial landscape. These transactions have highlighted many of the inconsistencies, asymmetries and shortcomings of current tax practices and challenged some basic tax principles. The ensuing uncertainties could over the long term place considerable strain on the tax system by increasing the opportunities for abuse and raising overall compliance costs. At the same time derivatives have provided a better understanding of the operation tax laws and from this standpoint have provided a positive input into policy design. This paper has three objectives: (a) to illustrate some of the weaknesses of the current tax system by focusing on several types of novel transaction; (b) to assess the validity of various types of adjustment proposed to tax code; (c) to draw out the implications of these developments for the ongoing debate over fundamental tax reforms and over source versus residence based taxes.     

The Market Quality of Dealer versus Hybrid Markets: The Case of Moderately Liquid Securities

Abstract:  Over the last decade, electronic limit-order trading systems have been sweeping securities exchanges around the world. This paper studies a transitional case, namely, the commencement of trading of a group of moderately liquid stocks on SETS of the London Stock Exchange. The evidence reveals that the liquidity of those stocks dropped substantially after the introduction of the limit order book and the removal of the market makers' obligations. This transition provides an example that a hybrid market with a limit order book and voluntary dealers may not perform as well as a dealership market with obligatory market makers.     

The Evolution of Private Equity in Emerging Markets: The Case of Poland

In the last ten years, there has been a pronounced shift toward emerging markets in institutional investor allocations of capital to private equity. While the lion's share of the allocations to emerging markets have gone to the “BRIC” nations, lesser‐known markets like Poland are threatening to steal the spotlight. Economic stabilization, development of the private sector, a favorable business outlook, and continuous improvement of the local institutional infrastructure (laws, accounting rules, and fiscal regimes) have all contributed to the development of a vibrant private equity industry in Poland. Most private equity firms in Poland structure their deals around five broad investment themes: technology; media; and telecommunications; manufacturing; consumer services; business services; and financial services. Local private equity firms have traditionally adopted two different strategies towards these sectors. The first group of private equity firms initially targeted manufacturing, with the conviction that, as the Polish economy developed, the satisfaction of consumer needs for basic products would be the largest source of market demand. The second group assumed that the market would require access to more services to accommodate the growing local economy. Both approaches have proved reasonably successful, as the leaders among these two groups of firms have continued to succeed in raising new funds while achieving high returns for their limited partners. And while the accomplishments of the private equity industry have been made possible by the extent of Poland's transformation from a socialist into a market economy, the industry itself continues to play an important role in this transformation by providing both outside capital and know‐how for local firms and managers.     

Determinants of Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: The Case of Turkey

This paper investigates possible determinants of currency crises in Turkey. We use three different techniques—namely, the signaling approach, structural model, and Markov switching model with monthly data for the period 1992-2004. The results show that money market pressure index, real-sector confidence index, and public-sector variables are significant in explaining currency crises. Hence, one can say that banking crises lead to currency crises. Central banks' real-sector confidence index may be a good leading indicator for currency crises.     

Discerning the Impact of Derivatives on Asset Risk: The Case of Canadian Banks

The Canadian banks have shown remarkable resilience to the financial crisis that intensified in the late 2008. The interesting question is whether this stability is due to their prudent lending practices to limit the original risk exposures or due to effective risk management through hedging by using financial derivatives. In this paper, we implement the option‐theoretic model of Merton to calculate the implied asset risk and discern the impact of these derivatives on the aggregate risk for Canadian banks over the period 1997–2008. An algorithm of iterative procedure is developed to impute asset value and risk from bank stock prices. Our estimates show that the risk for Canadian banks is low and even decreasing till the unfolding of the recent crises in 2008. Further analyses reveal that such low risks are not due to reliance on hedging, nor is it related to trading in derivatives, after disentangling the intertwined effects of hedging and trading. These results suggest that involvements in derivatives, in and of themselves, should not be blamed for causing the bank crises; rather, it is conservatism in controlling original risk exposures that remains fundamental for safeguarding a healthy financial system.     

Market Segmentation Effects in Corporate Credit Rating Changes: The Case of Emerging Markets

We examine stock market reactions to corporate credit rating changes in 26 emerging market countries included in the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Market Index. We hypothesize and test the notion that emerging market firms in the American Depository Receipts (ADRs) markets are more likely to purchase ratings from the Big Two (Moody’s and S&P), and that they react more strongly to the announcements of corporate rating changes by Moody’s or S&P than to those of raters in local markets. We compare the effect of credit rating changes of the Big Two in two emerging stock markets: local markets (local currencies) and ADR markets (U.S. dollars). We find significant price reactions in the ADR markets, and insignificant reactions in local markets, and conclude that there is capital market segmentation in ADR markets for credit rating changes of emerging market firms. We find evidence that investors react more strongly in the ADR markets than local markets because they require higher costs of capital for firms cross-listed both in the ADR markets and local markets due to greater expected bankruptcy costs and foreign exchange risks of those firms. We also report that stock markets react significantly, not only to rating downgrades, but also to upgrades in the ADR markets.

关于我国发展衍生品投资基金的思考

我国期货市场创建至今，经历了初创期、清理整顿期、规范发展期。时至今日，期货市场却依旧是散户主导的市场，基金等机构投资者只是旁观者。衍生品投资基金相对于其他投资产品具有明显优势，大力发展衍生品投资基金对于壮大我国期货等衍生品市场具有重要作用。在股指期货即将上市和国内外经济联系日益密切的背景下，急需推出衍生品投资基金以稳定市场，扩大市场规模和流动性，进而增强我国在国际商品市场上的定价权。     

金融衍生品对商业银行信贷风险控制的影响研究

近年来,许多中国企业从事金融衍生品交易受到重创并陷入财务困境,给相关银行带来巨大的信贷风险。本文从商业银行信贷风险控制的角度,首先探讨了企业利用金融衍生品进行套期保值的积极意义以及该业务一旦转化为投机给企业带来的巨大风险,发生这种转化的关键原因是其内部控制失效。商业银行不应对正常套期保值的企业惜贷,但必须对涉及金融衍生品交易的企业贷款提高风险意识,一方面要严格监控贷款企业的相关内部控制机制,另一方面也要建立银行自身与衍生品交易企业贷款有关的内部控制机制,这一机制包括事前防范、事中监控和事后处理三个方面。     

论新兴市场的潜在威胁(英文)

随着全球经济的发展,越来越多的跨国公司开始步入新兴市场。然而,事实上,大多数公司都没有取得他们理想中的成功。相反,在新兴市场中,他们将面临着更复杂的问题和风险。本文旨在分析新兴市场中存在的潜在威胁。     

Do Firms Use Derivatives to Reduce their Dependence on External Capital Markets?

This study investigates if the use of derivatives by corporations is likelyto affect their financing strategies. I find a strong positive relationbetween the minimum revenue guaranteed by hedging and investmentexpenditures. This result implies that hedging increases the likelihood thatinvestments can be financed internally. I also find that firms tend tofinance their investment expenditures externally rather than internally. Ifexternal capital is more costly than internal capital it would clearly be ina firm's interest to reduce its dependence on external capital. Consistentwith this result, I find that the median firm that does not hedge finances100% of its investment expenditures externally, while the median firm thathedges finances only 86% of investments externally.     

构筑我国金融衍生品市场安全网的若干思考

金融衍生品市场在为市场参与者提供有效风险管理工具的同时,又因其强大的杠杆特性也曾给金融衍生品市场带来了灾难性的损失。本文在客观阐述金融衍生品本质特征和主要风险表现的基础上,以中信泰富事件为线索,分析了导致衍生品交易重大亏损的主要原因,从立法、市场、内控和人才等方面提出如何构建我国金融衍生品市场安全网的建议。     

The Beta Dilemma in Emerging Markets

In principle, emerging markets analysts employ the same analytical framework when estimating the value of businesses as their counterparts in developed economies: they forecast future cash flows and discount those to the present with appropriate costs of capital that are estimated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) framework. But in practice, emerging market analysts have a more complicated job because the task of estimating costs of equity in emerging markets is more difficult. Whereas developed economies have an abundance of historical data on overall stock market movements, industry share price behavior, and many individual share price histories, emerging market economies often do not. There may be no comparable local firms that are publicly traded—or if there are, their CAPM betas may be unreliable. And if analysts instead use the beta of a U.S. competitor as a surrogate for the emerging market beta, they face the question of whether domestic betas are equivalent across borders. As a consequence, appraisers of emerging market companies confront a “beta dilemma.” Part of this is a data problem stemming from shorter share price histories in emerging markets and the absence of publicly traded companies in some industries. In such cases, analysts may be inclined to use industry betas calculated with U.S. share prices as a substitute. But this creates an equivalence problem—the possibility, as confirmed by the author's research, that domestic U.S. and emerging market betas are not statistically equivalent for most industries. The author proposes a solution to this problem that involves grouping emerging markets into a single, distinctive asset class that allows for reliable calculations of industry betas. He also suggests ways of testing emerging market industry betas to determine whether they are statistically comparable.     

Profit Possibilities in Currency Markets: Arbitrage, Hedging, and Speculation

This paper reviews and extends the existing literature on covered arbitrage, delineates the conditions for profitable arbitrage with the hedging instruments of forward and options contracts in the foreign exchange markets, and defines the maximum possible profits out of a given market environment. Next, the simple rules on speculation are articulated with and without transaction costs, and then we show how speculation can be covered with options and forwards. Finally, speculation is integrated with arbitrage and hedging, and further compounding of profit possibilities is illustrated.     

The Discount Rate in Emerging Markets: A Guide

There is considerable controversy about the correct discount (or "hurdle") rate to use when performing valuations of investments in real assets in emerging markets. The topic is particularly relevant because of the growing need to evaluate privatizations, direct private acquisitions, and greenfield investments in new productive facilities throughout the world.
This article argues that the traditional practitioners' approach of building a country risk premium into the discount rate is generally inappropriate, mainly because country risk is not the same for all projects nor is it totally systematic. Moreover, there is no reason for the discount rate to be closely related to the spread on the government bonds of the country concerned. The author also points out that, in determining the appropriate discount rate, what is important is not the segmentation of the market, but the extent to which the investor is locally or globally diversified. The article accordingly reviews a selected group of models for calculating discount rates for both segmented and integrated markets. Adjustments to the valuation procedure are also suggested for cases in which investors are not well diversified or the investment is illiquid.     

Testing for Mean-Variance Spanning with Short Sales Constraints and Transaction Costs: The Case of Emerging Markets

We propose regression-based tests for mean-variance spanning in the case where investors face market frictions such as short sales constraints and transaction costs. We test whether U.S. investors can extend their efficient set by investing in emerging markets when accounting for such frictions. For the period after the major liberalizations in the emerging markets, we find strong evidence for diversification benefits when market frictions are excluded, but this evidence disappears when investors face short sales constraints or small transaction costs. Although simulations suggest that there is a possible small-sample bias, this bias appears to be too small to affect our conclusions.