Economic Globalization and Financial Development in East Asia: A Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis

This study examines the role of economic globalization in financial development in eight East Asian economies. The heterogeneous panel cointegration test reveals that cointegration is present among economic globalization, institutions, financial development, real gross domestic product per capita, and financial reforms. The Granger causality test results indicate that economic globalization has a significant causal influence on institutional quality, and institutional reforms have in turn facilitated and supported financial development, in particular of the banking sector in East Asia. Economic globalization is also found to have a favorable causal impact on stock market development without going through the institutional quality channel.     

Institutional development and bank stability: Evidence from transition countries

This paper takes advantage of the dynamic nature of institutional reforms in transition economies and explores the causal effects of those reforms on bank risk. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we show that banks’ financial stability increases substantially after these countries reform their legal institutions, liberalize banking, and restructure corporate governance. We also find that the effects of legal and governance reforms on bank risk may critically depend on the progress of banking reforms. A further examination of alternative risk measures reveals that the increases in financial stability among banks mainly come from the reduction of asset risk. Banks tend to have lower ROA volatility and fewer nonperforming loans after reforming the institutional environment. Finally, we split our sample into foreign and domestic banks and find that the enhancement of financial stability is more pronounced for domestic banks.     

The Banking Sector,Government Bonds,and Financial Intermediation: The Case of Emerging Market Countries

This paper develops an analytical framework to explore how financial-sector characteristics shape the terms and the scale of public borrowing in emerging market economies. We find that the more competitive the banking sector and the more liquid and deeper the deposit market, the better are conditions in the public securities market. We also show that the greater the central bank independence, the higher the cost of public borrowing. Furthermore, our results suggest that, in countries where banks rely significantly on foreign currency financing, the greater the government's reliance on bank lending, the greater is its exposure to exchange rate risk.     

Finance and growth: Time series evidence on causality

This paper re-examines the empirical relationship between financial and economic development while (i) taking into account their dynamics and (ii) differentiating between stock market and banking sector development. We study the cointegration and causality between finance and growth for 22 advanced economies. Our time series analysis suggests that causality patterns depend on whether countries’ financial development stems from the stock market or the banking sector. We show that stock market development tends to cause economic development, while a reverse causality is mostly present between banking sector development and output growth. These findings indicate that the direction of causality between finance and growth is likely to be different at high levels of development.     

International compliance with new Basel Accord principles for risk governance

We assess international compliance with the Basel Committee's 2010 guidance on governance of banking organisations. Based on an extensive examination of regulatory documents in selected advanced economies, we find that reform is incomplete in jurisdictions most affected by the financial crisis, and with the largest financial centres. In contrast, other countries less affected by the financial crisis have enacted risk governance reforms as protection against potential future contagion. We provide insights for policy‐makers charged with improving governance at banks, and a richer understanding for international regulators as they revise the guidelines and aim for greater compliance at the national level.     

中国影子银行发展成因实证分析——基于2002~2012年月度数据

综合运用格兰杰因果检验和分位数回归技术对我国影子银行的各种影响因素进行实证分析。结论表明,我国影子银行是在金融二元结构和利率管制格局下,金融活动主体为规避监管、分散风险以及投机套利而进行金融创新的产物。利率管制是促成我国影子银行发展的根本原因,经济结构变迁、经济周期运行及宏观调控政策在总量与结构层面作用于金融资源供求关系,通过扩大或收缩监管套利空间,也对影子银行规模变动产生了重要影响。     

中国银行业竞争与非金融企业影子银行化

本文结合非金融企业影子银行化的形成机制以及中国金融市场发展的特征事实,从“供给侧”和“需求侧”双重视角探究银行竞争如何抑制非金融企业影子银行化。以2003—2019年中国非金融上市企业为研究样本,分析发现,银行竞争能够显著降低非金融企业影子银行化。进一步以放松中小商业银行分支机构市场准入为标志事件构造准自然实验,基于双重差分法的计量结果为识别银行竞争对非金融企业影子银行化的抑制效应提供了稳健的经验证据。机制分析发现,银行业竞争通过弱化“信贷扭曲”和“监管套利”两个维度的作用机制抑制非金融企业影子银行化。异质性分析表明,银行竞争对非金融企业影子银行化的抑制作用在融资约束较高和投资机会较少的样本中尤为明显。     

Financial development,institutions and banks

This paper presents a framework for understanding the interactions between political and legal institutions, property rights protection, and their implications for financial development. Whereas the literature has answered questions on why some countries lag behind in terms of financial and economic development, the current study suggests how to get around some institutional attributes to spearhead financial intermediation and economic growth through a set of institutional, information, and banking reforms. It finds little support that common law legal heritage is more suitable than French civil law for some key features of financial development. It concludes that types of institutional and market reforms are more relevant to financial intermediation than legal systems. It proposes some ways forward to increase financial intermediation; and expects, over the long run, the proposed approach to financial development to be beneficial for a number of developing countries.     

Banking Mergers: The Impact of Financial Liberalization on the Taiwanese Banking Industry

The objective of this paper is to examine the nature of the Taiwanese banking sector and to analyze the impact of financial liberalization on the Taiwanese banking industry. We present empirical evidence to show that the recent wave of bank mergers observed in other countries is also suitable for Taiwan. Based on empirical results for overall economies of scale and expansion path subadditivity, Taiwanese banks should obtain the benefit of scale economies by merging with other banks rather than expanding by opening more branches. Furthermore, we show that the Relative Market Power hypothesis—which postulates that greater market shares lead to higher profitability—finds empirical support in Taiwanese banking data after financial reforms were enacted.     

Does interest rate and its volatility affect banking sector development? Empirical evidence from emerging market economies

This study investigates the relationship between interest rate, interest rate volatility, and banking sector development in 12 emerging market economies located around the world. For this purpose, panel data analysis was conducted using annual data from 1980 to 2014. In parallel to the financial development literature, which asserts that banking sector development, as a broad and complex concept, cannot be measured by a single indicator, this study adopts a set of measures of banking sector development. The empirical results reveal that while interest rate has a positive impact on all banking sector indicators, this relationship weakens at higher interest levels, showing a concave relationship between interest rate and banking sector development. In addition, the empirical results provide evidence that interest rate fluctuations have a negative impact on most banking sector development (BSD) indicators, suggesting that the banking sectors of emerging countries are vulnerable to interest rate risks. Furthermore, all measures of the banking sector indicators are positively affected by economic growth rates, while this association weakens at higher levels of income, confirming a nonlinear relationship. Thus, the results have important implications for policymakers in improving the banking system and promoting the economic growth of these emerging economies.     

How successful are banking sector reforms in emerging market economies? Evidence from impact of monetary policy on levels and structures of firm debt in India

Many emerging markets have undertaken significant financial sector reforms, especially in their banking sectors, that are critical for both financial development and real economic activity. In this paper, we investigate the success of banking reforms in India where significant banking reforms were implemented during the 1990s. Using the argument that well-functioning credit markets would reflect a credit channel for monetary policy at work, we test whether a change in monetary policy has a predictable impact on borrowing behaviour of several types of firms, including business group affiliated, unaffiliated private firms, state-owned firms and foreign firms. The empirical results suggest that unaffiliated private firms have the most vulnerable to monetary policy stance during tight policy regimes. We also find that during tight monetary policy regimes, bank credit of smaller firms is more sensitive to changes in the interest rate than that of large firms. In an easy money regime, monetary policy and the associated change in interest rate does not affect change in bank credit, change in total debt and the proportion of bank credit in total debt for any of the firms. We discuss the policy implications of the findings.     

Finance and Macroeconomic Performance. Some Evidence for Emerging Markets

This paper examines whether financial-sector development in several emerging markets affects their real economic activity. Results from cointegration and error correction models suggest that financial deepening (alternatively measured) exerts a robust longterm stimulating effect on real economic activity (both overall and sectoral) in all countries examined. However, short-term effects of financial deepening prove generally nonexistent, or tenuous at best. The results suggest that improving the structure and operation of the financial sector in emerging markets does stimulate real growth, but only if such improvement persists over a prolonged period of time.     

Korean bank governance reform after the Asian financial crisis

We discuss corporate governance reforms in the Korean banking sector, which include reforms in board composition and executive compensation, implemented after the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and examine the stock market's response to the reforms. We find that the banking returns and volatilities became more Granger-causally prior to both KOSPI and finance sector returns after 1998. The announcements of banking governance reforms are generally associated with significant increases in banking sector stock returns. The KIF survey finds that board governance is considered essential in assessing the value of the firm. The participants in the McKinsey survey indicate that they are willing to pay a premium of 24% on average for firms with outstanding corporate governance systems.     

A Conference on Postcrisis Banking

This article provides an introduction to the special issue. We focus on four themes that are important for policymakers and researchers alike in view of the experiences of the global financial crisis of 2007–09 and the ensuing sovereign debt crisis in the euro area: the relevance of the banking sector for the real economy, the future structure and regulation of the banking sector, the efficacy of past and current regulatory reforms, and the impact of cross‐border banking on economic stability and financial development.     

Exploring the nexus between financial sector reforms and the emergence of digital banking culture – Evidences from a developing country

Several financial and banking sector reform programs were instituted in different countries over the last three decades. The underlining purpose of these reforms was largely to improve banking sector supervision and regulation, introduce bank privatization mechanism, introduce clearance and settlement systems, infuse competition and to stimulate financial innovation. The objectives of this study are to 1) review the relevant published literature and market survey reports on the financial & banking sector reforms undertaken in Pakistan and elsewhere, 2) analyze how these reform programs develop digital banking culture and increase financial inclusion in the country and 3) guide future research by putting forward a research agenda. The findings of the study suggest a link between the financial and banking sector reforms and the stimulation of financial innovation; the promotion of digital banking culture; and the infusion of financial inclusion in Pakistan. We discuss managerial/policy implications of the study, limitations and presents recommendations for future research.     

银行业支持经济发展转罂政策效果的实证研究

本文选取自2008年全球金融危机爆发至2012年底这一时间段,以山东经济转型和银行业发展为例,通过实证分析,探讨银行业对经济转型的推动效果、产生的不利影响以及探索银行业更好地支持经济发展转型的有效路径,具有较强的理论意义和现实意义。     

Banking structure and industrial growth: Evidence from China

The debate on the puzzling relationship between financial development and economic growth in China has remained inconclusive because the effects of banking ownership structure and size structure are highly intertwined in the existing studies. This paper addresses this problem by specifying an empirical model to disentangle the two structural effects. The analysis uses a data set that includes the banking sector and 28 manufacturing industries across 30 Chinese provinces over the period 1999–2007. In order to identify the channel through which banking structure affects industrial growth, two interactive variables are constructed to capture the interaction of the prevailing banking structure with labor intensity and the share of non-state-owned enterprises in each industry, respectively. The regression results are robust and make the case for the ongoing banking reforms to reduce state ownership and promote small banking institutions.     

Relationship Banking: What Do We Know?

This paper briefly reviews the contemporary literature on relationship banking. We start out with a discussion of the raison d'être of banks in the context of the financial intermediation literature. From there we discuss how relationship banking fits into the core economic services provided by banks and point at its costs and benefits. This leads to an examination of the interrelationship between the competitive environment and relationship banking as well as a discussion of the empirical evidence. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G20, G21, L10.     

“十二五”时期的中国银行业改革与发展

受本轮全球经济金融危机影响,"十二五"时期世界经济金融发展格局将发生重大变革,全球银行业也将发生结构调整。本文分析了"十二五"时期中国银行业面临的经济金融环境,并对这一时期中国银行业改革发展的基本定位及具体路径进行了探讨。     

影子银行体系监管改革的国际经验及其对中国的启示

全球金融危机过后,影子银行体系的监管改革问题前所未有地成为各国金融当局普遍关注的热点,以美国为代表的发达经济体掀起了一场旨在规范影子银行体系发展的金融监管体制改革。本文的研究表明,过度金融创新以及金融监管的缺失是刺激美国影子银行体系迅速发展的直接原因。然而,危机过后,美国并未简单地采取抑制金融创新的办法加强对影子银行体系的监管,而是通过金融监管机构改革以及提高微观金融数据的采集与分析的办法,规范和引导影子银行体系的健康发展。这种市场化的监管改革思路值得我们借鉴。从影子银行体系的运行机制以及发展来看,中国的影子银行体系与美国存在较大差异,但全面强化宏观审慎金融监管是我国金融监管体制改革的大势所趋。在此情况下,美国金融监管改革的经验值得我们认真总结和研究。最后,本文认为,中国应当继续深化金融体制改革;积极探索现行金融监管框架的改革;加强微观金融数据的收集与整合,完善宏观金融风险预警机制。