The efficient markets hypothesis: The demise of the demon of chance?

Many commentators have suggested that economists in general and financial economists in particular have some responsibility for the recent global financial crisis. They were blinded by an irrational faith in a discredited Efficient Markets Hypothesis and failed to see the bubble in asset prices and to give due warning of its collapse. There is considerable confusion as to what this hypothesis is and what it says. The irony is that the strong implication of this hypothesis is that nobody, no practitioner, no academic and no regulator had the ability to foresee the collapse of this most recent bubble. While few economists believe it is literally true, this hypothesis is considered a useful benchmark with some important practical implications. Indeed, a case can be made that it was the failure to believe in the essential truth of this idea, which was a leading factor responsible for the global financial crisis .     

Are Stock‐for‐Stock Acquirers of Unlisted Targets Really Less Overvalued?

Extant studies assume that targets’ private ownership mitigates acquirers’ incentives and opportunities to finance acquisitions with inflated stocks. This view stems from the observation that, although the average stock‐for‐stock acquirer's merger announcement return is negative when the target is listed, it is positive when the target is unlisted. Accordingly, extant studies often suggest that announcements of stock‐for‐stock acquisitions of unlisted targets convey favorable private information about the acquirers. However, an analysis of stock‐for‐stock acquirers’ stock performance, abnormal accruals, net operating assets, and insider trading suggests the opposite. Acquirers of unlisted targets are generally more overvalued than acquirers of listed targets.     

The disciplinary process of the accounting profession: protecting the public or the profession? The Québec experience

The voluntary self-regulatory system of the accounting profession was criticized in recent years for its lack of effectiveness, of public representation, and the conflict between the profession's desire to protect its industry and its “role as self-regulator and protector of the public” (Coofee, Working Paper, Columbia Law School, 2001, p. 22 (available on SSRN Electronic Library at id=270944)). This study examines the role of disciplinary activities of the profession in protecting the public interest in the Canadian province of Québec, a jurisdiction where, although the profession is self-regulated, several rules are imposed by the government, including mandatory public participation and oversight by a regulatory agency.My results indicate that at the trial stage, which is heavily regulated and where public participation is high, public-interest violations predominate, are considered more serious than private-interest violations, and result in more severe sanctions. At the inquiry stage, which is characterized by a lower level of public involvement and a high degree of discretion, the results indicate that the decision of whether or not to prosecute a case depends on the cost of the disciplinary process, the notoriety of the case, and the risk that the case if prosecuted results in an acquittal. These findings suggest that the preponderance of the public interest over the private interest depends on the degree of regulation and public participation.     

Out of Site,Out of Mind? The Role of the Government-Appointed Corporate Monitor

We study the role of a relatively new type of external firm monitor, an on-site government-appointed Corporate Monitor, and assess whether such appointments reduce firms' propensity to violate laws. Using a sample of deferred and nonprosecution agreements, we first document the determinants of Monitor appointment. We find firms that voluntarily disclose wrongdoing and have more independent directors are less likely to have Corporate Monitors, whereas those with more severe infractions, mandated board changes, and increased cooperation requirements are more likely to have Monitors. We find such appointments are associated with an 18%–25% reduction in violations while the Monitor is on site, however, the effect does not persist after the Monitorship ends. Using a semisupervised machine learning method to measure changes in firms' ethics and compliance norms, we find that the reduction in violations is associated with changes in ethics and compliance that also do not persist. Finally, we document that firms under Monitorship experience a persistent reduction in innovation, highlighting a previously unexplored cost of these interventions. Overall, our results suggest that, although Corporate Monitors on site are associated with fewer violations, firms revert to previous levels of violations following Monitors' departure.     

Better than the original? The relative success of copycat funds

We construct hypothetical copycat funds to investigate the performance of free-riding strategies that duplicate the disclosed asset holdings of actively managed mutual funds. On average, copycat funds are able to generate performance that is comparable to their target mutual funds, taking into account transaction costs and expenses. However, their relative success increased significantly after 2004 when the SEC imposed quarterly disclosure regulations on all mutual funds. We also find substantial cross-sectional dispersion in the relative performance of copycat funds. Free-riding on the portfolios disclosed by past winning funds and funds that disclose representative holdings generates significantly better performance net of trading costs and expenses than the vast majority of mutual funds. The results indicate that free-riding on disclosed fund holdings is an attractive strategy and suggest that mutual funds can suffer from the information disclosure requirements.     

Are the best of the best better than the rest? The effect of multiple rankings on company value

In this paper, we explore the cumulative and interactive effects from being listed on one or more of four popular annual surveys (Fortune’s “Most Admired Companies” and “100 Best Companies to Work For,” Business Ethics “Best Corporate Citizens,” and Working Mother’s “100 Best Companies for Working Mothers.”) We find portfolios constructed of firms selected across these surveys add value to a portfolio, initially and over longer-holding periods, but the overall results are driven by the performance of those firms selected from the Most Admired Companies and Best Corporate Citizens rankings. We also discover that being listed in two or three different surveys on a yearly basis produces incremental value.     

Does linkage fuel the fire? The transmission of financial stress across the markets

This paper develops an indicator of financial stress transmission, called Financial Stress Spillover Index (FSSI), to monitor the condition of financial system and to identify periods of excessive spillover that may lead to financial instability. Specifically, using the “spillover index” approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), we modify and extend the financial stress indices proposed by Oet et al. (2011) to track both total and directional stress spillovers across the U.S. equity, debt, banking, and foreign exchange markets. Unlike other previous studies, the important linkages among these four major financial sectors in an interconnected world are directly taken into account by considering the average and time-varying connectedness of each individual market. The evidence suggests that there are important stress episodes and fluctuations across markets; the total cross-market stress spillovers were rather limited until the onsets of financial crises. As the crises intensified, so too did the financial stress spillovers; with significant stress carrying over from debt and equity markets to the others. In addition, our results indicate that FSSI has a significant predictive power for the economic activity and provides useful information for dating financial crisis.     

The market price of risk and the equity premium: A legacy of the Great Depression?

By positing learning and a pessimistic initial prior, we build a model that disconnects a representative consumer's subjective attitudes toward risk from the high price of risk that a rational-expectations econometrician would deduce from financial market data. We follow Friedman and Schwartz [1963. A Monetary History of the United States, 1857-1960. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ] in hypothesizing that the Great Depression heightened fears of economic instability. We use a robustness calculation to elicit a pessimistic prior for a representative consumer and let him update beliefs via Bayes’ law. Learning eventually erases pessimism, but while it persists, pessimism contributes a volatile multiplicative component to the stochastic discount factor that a rational-expectation econometrician would detect. With sufficient initial pessimism, the model generates substantial values for the market price of risk and equity premium and predicts high Sharpe ratios and forecastable excess stock returns.     

The Global Financial Crisis and the European Single Market: The end of integration?

Using various versions of the Feldstein-Horioka (FH) coefficient, we measure the time-varying degree of capital mobility and economic integration in the European Union. Prior research shows high correlation between domestic investment and savings implying low capital mobility. This surprising result has led to subsequent research on the ‘Feldstein-Horioka puzzle’. Our empirical findings show that the puzzle is less puzzling with a coefficient of 0.52 in the period 1990–1995 in EU countries approaching its minimum value of 0.02 in the period 2003–2008. This clearly indicates that the FH coefficient is time-varying signalling a deepening of economic integration in the European Union. Yet, with the advent of the Global Financial Crisis the FH coefficient has increased to 0.26 underlining worrying signs of disintegration.     

A leader of the world commodity futures markets in the making? The case of China's commodity futures

We use the daily data of 16 commodity futures contracts traded in China and corresponding foreign markets (the US, the UK, Japan, and Malaysia) to analyze the linkages between markets. Several findings are noteworthy. First, trading returns of foreign markets, such as the US, have significant impact on China's overnight (close-to-open) returns and vice-versa. Second, daytime (open-to-close) returns of many Chinese commodity futures contracts are not led by foreign daytime returns. Finally, the close-to-close returns analysis suggests that there are no significant lead-lag relationships between the Chinese and foreign markets. These results suggest that (1) the Chinese commodity futures markets are information-efficient, and (2) they are likely to be driven by local market dynamics occurring during the daytime trading session.     

What drives foreign expansion of the top 100 multinational banks? The role of the credit reporting system

This study explores how information costs, proxied by characteristics of credit reporting systems, affect the foreign expansion of the top 100 multinational banks. We find that banks prefer to expand operations in countries where private credit bureaus exist or where the credit reporting system is of better quality. This preference is particularly strong for banks’ branch decisions. Furthermore, banks prefer subsidiary entry only in countries where private credit bureaus exist with better credit information quality. Overall, our results indicate that banks are attracted to countries where the credit reporting system helps reduce banks’ information costs.     

Why Has Poland Avoided the Price Liberalization Trap? The Case of the Hog-Pork Sector

Price liberalization in the agrifood economy in the transitioneconomies is likely to slip into a trap: food prices rocketup, consumption declines, but food supply does not catch upand even contracts. However, during the transition period followingthe 1989 price liberalization, the Polish hog-pork sector succeededin avoiding this trap. By conducting market structure and econometricanalysis, this article looks for the reasons for this success. In the Polish hog-pork sector the restructuring of state-ownedenterprises and the emergence of private firms introduced aneffective price transmission mechanism between the processing-retailingand farm levels. This mechanism allowed farm supply to respondto changed demand and to take advantage of increased retailprices. Such a relatively efficient marketing system was madepossible by a relatively stable macroeconomic environment andlimited government intervention.     

Following the leader? The relevance of the Fed funds rate for inflation targeting countries

In a New-Keynesian model for a small open economy, we derive a CPI inflation-based Taylor rule that implements the flexible price allocation. We conclude that, in this rule, the natural rate of interest should be linked to the foreign interest rate and to domestic productivity shocks. This rule ensures that the CPI real rate moves in order to induce movements in consumption that are coherent with the flexible price allocation. The empirical evidence shows that inflation-targeting central banks respond to movements in the Fed funds rate, besides reacting to expected CPI inflation and to the domestic output gap. This is true for developed and emerging economies. Furthermore, we find that in emerging countries the response to foreign variables is not different from zero, as suggested by theory, when domestic inflation, rather than CPI inflation, is introduced in the policy rule.     

What’s in the news? The ambiguity of the information content of index reconstitutions in Germany

We analyze stock price behavior around reconstitutions of the German DAX index family from 1990 to 2013. The strong price run-up of added stocks in the 2 months preceding the announcement date remains robust until 2 months after the effective date (ED), and is fully reversed 5 months later. Conversely, stock prices of deleted firms are under pressure until 10 months after the ED. Unlike most previous studies, we find that outright entries and exits have temporary price effects, as do additions to and deletions from better-known indices; however, promotions and demotions related to lesser-known indices command permanent stock price responses. Rather surprisingly, deleted stocks consistently earn higher abnormal returns than added stocks in the 5-year post-event period. Specifically, the return differential levels out at 77.3%. We establish that this differential in permanent stock prices is attributable to differences in operating performance and media coverage. In practice, index reconstitutions do not appear to give unambiguous signals about the long-run investment appeal of affected firms. However, index fund managers not constrained by tracking error minimization would be better off holding deleted stocks for 5 years after the ED.     

Do birds of the same feather flock together?: The case of the Chinese states equity markets

We examine the equity market price interdependence between China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan based on the [Journal of Econometrics 66 (1995) 225] causality test which we bootstrap with leveraged adjustments. A new information criterion is used to choose the optimal lag order. We cover the period January 1, 1993–September 10, 2001 taking into account the Asian financial crisis in 1997. We find that before the Asian crisis, the only interaction among the Chinese markets was between Singapore and the markets of Taiwan and Hong Kong with the causality running from the former to the latter. However, after the Asian crisis, the Chinese equity markets became more interdependent among themselves although Hong Kong remained non-influential.