A COMMENT ON MARKET FREE LUNCH AND FREE LUNCH

Frittelli (2004) introduced a market free lunch depending on the preferences of the agents in the market. He characterized no arbitrage and no free lunch with vanishing risk in terms of no market free lunch (the difference comes from the class of utility functions determining the market free lunch). In this note we complete the list of characterizations and show directly (using the theory of Orlicz spaces) that no free lunch is equivalent to the absence of market free lunch with respect to monotone concave utility functions.     

An Anticipating Calculus Approach to the Utility Maximization of an Insider

In this paper we consider a financial market with an insider that has, at time   t = 0  , some additional information of the whole developing of the market. We use the forward integral, which is an anticipating integral, and the techniques of the Malliavin calculus so that we can take advantage of the privileged information to maximize the expected logarithmic utility from terminal wealth.     

Martingale Measures For A Class of Right-Continuous Processes

The subject of the present paper is the following. Suppose that W is a class of adapted, right-continuous processes on the continuous time horizon [0, 1], and for every stopping time and W , () is bounded below. A necessary and sufficient condition will be given for the existence of a probability measure Q which is equivalent to the original measure and such that each process in W is a martingale under Q . If the processes in W represent the discounted prices of available securities, then the condition given here for the existence of a martingale measure can be interpreted as absence of "free lunch" in the securities market. This is a familiar kind of theorem from the finance literature; the novelty of this paper is that the security prices are not required to be in LP for some 1 p , nor are they assumed to be continuous. Also, the concept of free lunch is invariant under the substitution of the original probability measure by an equivalent probability measure. the assumption that () is bounded below for every W and stopping time is quite natural since prices are nonnegative.
We shall define a class of admissible subjective probability measures and assume that each agent in the economy has selected a subjective probability measure from (hat class. Subjective free lunch for an agent will be defined using his or her subjective probability measure. It will be shown that under an additional condition the existence of free lunch is equivalent to the existence of a common subjective free lunch simultaneously for all possible agents in the economy.     

John V. C. Nye. War, Wine, and Taxes: The Political Economy of Anglo-French Trade, 1689-1900

This is not a long book: an introduction and eight chaptersamounting to 120 pages with additional appendices. However,it eruditely covers and raises a wide variety of intriguingissues that give it far greater impact than the slim volumemight at first suggest. The book is fundamentally about challenging the assertion thatBritain was a free trader in the nineteenth century and wasa free trader when compared specifically with France. From theoutset, John Nye sets     

How much does an Illegal Insider Trade?

This paper examines the choice of trade size by an illegal insider. Previous literature (i.e. Meulbroek 1992) tends to focus on the price impact of such a trader. Using a unique data set hand‐collected from the litigation reports of the Securities and Exchange Commission and court cases, we provide evidence, which suggests that the size of an illegal insider's trade is a function of the value of his private information, the probability of detection and the expected penalty if detected. Our results have important implication for security market regulators.     

The ethics of insider trading

Despite the fact that a number of economists and philosophers of late defend insider trading both as a viable and useful practice in a free market and as not immoral, I shall question the value of insider trading both from a moral and an economic point of view. I shall argue that insider trading both in its present illegal form and as a legalized market mechanism undermines the efficient and proper functioning of a free market, thereby bringing into question its own raison d'etre. It does so and is economically inefficient for the very reason that it is immoral. Thus this practice cannot be justified either from an economic or a moral point of view.

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股市有免费午餐吗——一个基于随机过程的理论分析

关于股市是否存在免费午餐,理论存在着截然不同的观点。一些经济学家依据有效市场假说,认为天下没有免费的午餐。然而,近年来人们逐渐认识到,在有关金融市场的理论模型中,某些形式巧妙的免费午餐是可以得到的。这一结果与基本的经济学原理相冲突,一些经济学家对解释这一有趣的问题做出了努力。本文从股票回报率随机波动的假设出发,利用伊滕定理,在关于投资组合回报率大于政府债券回报率的概率计算基础上,推导出股市存在免费午餐的条件,并对每一因素进行了分析和概率计算。在此基础上,对投资者提出了理性投资建议。     

OPTIMAL HIGH‐FREQUENCY TRADING IN A PRO RATA MICROSTRUCTURE WITH PREDICTIVE INFORMATION

We propose a framework to study optimal trading policies in a one‐tick pro rata limit order book, as typically arises in short‐term interest rate futures contracts. The high‐frequency trader chooses to post either market orders or limit orders, which are represented, respectively, by impulse controls and regular controls. We discuss the consequences of the two main features of this microstructure: first, the limit orders are only partially executed, and therefore she has no control on the executed quantity. Second, the high‐frequency trader faces the overtrading risk, which is the risk of large variations in her inventory. The consequences of this risk are investigated in the context of optimal liquidation. The optimal trading problem is studied by stochastic control and dynamic programming methods, and we provide the associated numerical resolution procedure and prove its convergence. We propose dimension reduction techniques in several cases of practical interest. We also detail a high‐frequency trading strategy in the case where a (predictive) directional information on the price is available. Each of the resulting strategies is illustrated by numerical tests.     

News media and insider trading profitability: An emerging country perspective

We test news media's disciplining by dissemination role and predictive power in insider trading related issues with a large and novel dataset on Chinese firms between 2008 and 2017. We find that more media coverage is associated with significantly lower level of insider trading profitability, which confirms the disciplining by dissemination role of media documented in the developed market. However, as a new evidence to the media and insider trading literature, we also find that media's negative tone has a positive correlation with future insider trading profitability, which is consistent with the media predictive power argument. In addition, we find that media's predictive power is amplified by a firm's good governance structure and low level of information asymmetry. Our study shows news media's effectiveness in predicting opportunistic insider trading in China.     

On the Existence of Minimax Martingale Measures

Embedding asset pricing in a utility maximization framework leads naturally to the concept of minimax martingale measures. We consider a market model where the price process is assumed to be an ^d‐semimartingale X and the set of trading strategies consists of all predictable, X‐integrable, ^d‐valued processes H for which the stochastic integral (H.X) is uniformly bounded from below. When the market is free of arbitrage, we show that a sufficient condition for the existence of the minimax measure is that the utility function u : → is concave and nondecreasing. We also show the equivalence between the no free lunch with vanishing risk condition, the existence of a separating measure, and a properly defined notion of viability.     

MARTINGALE MEASURES FOR DISCRETE-TIME PROCESSES WITH INFINITE HORIZON

Let ( S_t ) _tεI be an R^d-valued adapted stochastic process on (Ω, , ( _t ) _tεI , P ). A basic problem occurring notably in the analysis of securities markets, is to decide whether there is a probability measure Q on  equivalent to P such that ( S_t ) _tεI is a martingale with respect to Q. It is known (see the fundamental papers of Harrison and Kreps 1979; Harrison and Pliska 1981; and Kreps 1981) that there is an intimate relation of this problem with the notions of "no arbitrage" and "no free lunch" in financial economics. We introduce the intermediate concept of "no free lunch with bounded risk." This is a somewhat more precise version of the notion of "no free lunch." It requires an absolute bound of the maximal loss occurring in the trading strategies considered in the definition of "no free lunch." We give an argument as to why the condition of "no free lunch with bounded risk" should be satisfied by a reasonable model of the price process ( S_t ) _tεI of a securities market. We can establish the equivalence of the condition of "no free lunch with bounded risk" with the existence of an equivalent martingale measure in the case when the index set I is discrete but (possibly) infinite. A similar theorem was recently obtained by Delbaen (1992) for continuous-time processes with continuous paths. We can combine these two theorems to get a similar result for the continuous-time case when the process ( S_t ) _{t εR+} is bounded and, roughly speaking, the jumps occur at predictable times. In the infinite horizon setting, the price process has to be "almost a martingale" in order to allow an equivalent martingale measure.     

Insider Trading 2.0? The Ethics of Information Sales

The sale of faster access to financial market data has recently generated public controversy. NY Attorney General Eric Schneiderman has referred to such fast data feeds as “Insider Trading 2.0”. For example, Thomson Reuters sold the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index to computerized trading firms 2 seconds before releasing its data to its other paying clients. This paper explores the ethical issues involved in the sale of such information. Is selling faster access ethically the same as traditional insider trading, which generally involves a breach of fiduciary duty or the use of misappropriated information? Such practices are extremely different from traditional insider trading as there is neither a breach of fiduciary duty nor misappropriation of inside information. The ethical issues are similar to other market segmentation and price discrimination issues, in which different prices are charged to different customers. The ability to price discriminate across segments can actually benefit large segments of the population who may receive lower prices because others, such as the high-speed traders, are paying more. The sale of faster access to information, especially by exchanges, raises additional ethical issues. There may be adverse effects on market quality that must be addressed. The moral distaste for the practice expressed by some stems from the seeming unfairness of a modern market structure that provides advantages to a small group of computerized traders.     

Ownership Structure and Insider Trading: Evidence from China

In this paper, we examine the information content of insider transactions in China and analyze how ownership structures shape market reaction to these transactions. We find that the cumulative abnormal return (CAR) to insider purchases is a convex function of the percentage of shares owned by the largest shareholder. Further, the CAR to insider purchases is lower when the largest shareholder is government-related, or when the control rights of the largest shareholder exceed its cash flow rights. We also find that the market reaction to insider purchases is more positive for firms audited by Big4 auditors. However, we do not find a significant relationship between an ownership structure and the market reaction to insider sales. Our results are remarkably robust to alternative model specifications, corporate insider identities, and recent corporate news releases on price-sensitive events. Finally, we show that market reaction to insider purchases is larger for firms with less severe expropriations, as captured by the use of other receivables.     

An Experiment Testing the Determinants of Non-Compliance with Insider Trading Laws

Recent stories of corporate insiders avoiding losses and, in some cases, generating enormous personal profits as their companies crumbled have led investors to question the integrity of American business and the fairness of the United States stock markets. The SEC tries to ensure the fairness of the stock markets by making and enforcing laws against unfair practices such as insider trading. In the United States, when insiders trade stock based on non-public information, they have broken the law and betrayed the trust that has been placed in them.This study used student subjects to test the relationship between the likelihood of trading based on insider information and subjective probabilities of deterrents and motivations for insider trading. Expected gain, guilt, cynicism, and fairness of laws were the determinants that had a significant relationship with the intent to trade based on insider information. This study also found support for prospect theory with regard to insider trading. The results indicate that subjects are more likely to trade based on insider information to avoid a loss than to achieve an abnormal gain. The study also finds evidence of social desirability response bias.Additional findings of the study were that subjects did not view the determinants for themselves in a manner consistent with how they viewed those same deterrents and motivations for other people. Also, a test of the effects of gender found that certainty and social stigma were significantly higher for female respondents than for male respondents.     

An analysis of the profiles and motivations of habitual commodity speculators

The focus of this study is the habitual speculator in commodity futures markets. The speculator's activity broadens a market, creates essential liquidity, and performs an irreplaceable pricing function. Working knowledge of the profiles and motivations of habitual speculators is essential to both market theorists and policy makers. Responses to a 73-question survey were collected directly from retail commodity brokers with offices in Alabama. Each questionnaire recorded information on an individual commodity client who had traded for an extended period of time. The typical trader studied is a married, white male, age 52. He is affluent and well educated. He is a self-employed business owner who can recover from financial setbacks. He is a politically right-wing conservative involved in the political process. He assumes a good deal of risk in most phases of his life. He is both an aggressive investor and an active gambler. This trader does not consider preservation of his commodity capital to be a very high trading priority. As a result, he rarely uses stop loss orders. He wins more frequently than he loses (over 51% of the time) but is an overall net loser in dollar terms. In spite of recurring trading losses, he has never made any substantial change in his basic trading style. To this trader, whether he won or lost on a particular trade is more important than the size of the win or loss. Thus he consistently cuts his profits short while letting his losses run. He also worries more about missing a move in the market by being on the sidelines than about losing by being on the wrong side of a market move; that is, being in the action is more important than the financial consequences. Participating brokers confirmed that for the majority of the speculators studied, the primary motivation for continuous trading is the recreational utility derived largely from having a market position. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 18:765–801, 1998     

外部投资者情绪会驱动内部人交易吗？--来自中国A股市场的经验证据

本文基于Probit和Tobit模型检验了投资者情绪是否是内部人交易的信息来源。结果显示：投资者情绪越高,内部人卖出倾向增加、卖出强度增大,内部人买入倾向降低、买入强度减小。投资者情绪对内部人卖出的影响大于其对内部人买入的影响效应。在控制投资者情绪后,公司未公开的季度业绩变化信息并未对内部人的卖出交易产生显著的影响,这一现象符合“前景理论”的“确定效应”。     

Two-stage models for the analysis of information content of equity-selling mechanisms choices

Extant research offers mixed empirical results on if private placement firms are undervalued. [Hertzel, Michael G., and Smith, L. (1993), “Market Discounts and Shareholder Gains for Placing Equity Privately,” J Finance 48, 459-485] suggest that private placements convey favorable information. On the other hand, [Hertzel, Michael G., Lemmon, M., Linck, J., and Rees, L. (2002), “Long-Run Performance following Private Placements of Equity,” J Finance 57, 2595-2617] show that, similar to public offering firms, private placement firms experience significant negative long-run post-announcement stock price performance. This paper develops the two-stage estimation models to explore the information content of equity-selling mechanism. This paper uses estimated residuals from insider trading regressions (proxy for abnormal insider trades) to measure private information. The result shows that the probability of making private placements increases with abnormal insider purchases and decreases with abnormal insider sales. This suggests that, relative to the public offering firms, private placement firms are undervalued.     

Parental perception of lunch schemes in Danish kindergartens: A cross-sectional survey

Children’s daily consumption of food in childcare institutions has an impact on their public health nutritional status. The collaboration of parents and employees of kindergartens is important to ensure healthy eating habits among the next generation. Consequently, evaluations of lunch schemes are important to provide a good foundation for enhancing communication between home and institutional settings. The aim of this article is to assess parental satisfaction and identify themes related to parental perceptions of lunch schemes in Danish kindergartens. A survey was developed and distributed in four kindergartens with lunch schemes. A combination of closed and open questions were used to evaluate satisfaction and identify positive and negative aspects of the lunch schemes. Parents of 93 children participated in the study and the response rate was 55%. Eighty-nine percent expressed satisfaction with their children’s lunch scheme. According to parents, the most positive aspects were that lunch schemes serve a variety of food, their ability to prevent neophobia, that children learn that eating is a social occasion, and that the arrangements offer convenience to parents. The negative aspects identified were the lack of communication between the kindergarten childcare institutions and the parents regarding the food. Overall, parents are very satisfied with their children’s lunch schemes; however, the information between institutions and parents could be improved.     

A Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing for Large Financial Markets

We formulate the notion of “asymptotic free lunch” which is closely related to the condition “free lunch” of Kreps (1981) and allows us to state and prove a fairly general version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing in the context of a large financial market as introduced by Kabanov and Kramkov (1994). In a large financial market one considers a sequence (Sⁿ)_n=1^∞ of stochastic stock price processes based on a sequence (Ωⁿ, Fⁿ, (F_tⁿ)_t∈In, Pⁿ)_n=1^∞ of filtered probability spaces. Under the assumption that for all n∈ N there exists an equivalent sigma‐martingale measure for Sⁿ, we prove that there exists a bicontiguous sequence of equivalent sigma‐martingale measures if and only if there is no asymptotic free lunch (Theorem 1.1). Moreover we present an example showing that it is not possible to improve Theorem 1.1 by replacing “no asymptotic free lunch” by some weaker condition such as “no asymptotic free lunch with bounded” or “vanishing risk.”     

The Impact of Fraudulent False Information on Equity Values

There are two types of stock price manipulation examined in the theoretical literature: (1) insider trading, which involves private information that is true and (2) the public spreading of fraudulent false information. While there is a large empirical literature on insider trading, this is the first empirical article to examine the impact of false, fraudulent public information on stock prices and trading volume. We find that such false information, even after being denied by a credible source such as the SEC, generates both abnormal returns and abnormal trading volume. We also find that the effects of the false information on security returns and volume can be persistent for at least 2 weeks. In addition, we show that perpetrators of false news attacks can make potentially large profits from such market manipulations.