A model of technological breakthrough in the renewable energy sector

Models with induced technological change in the energy sector often predict a gradual expansion of renewable energies, and a substantial share of fossil fuels remaining in the energy mix through the end of our century. However, there are historical examples where new products or technologies expanded rapidly and achieved a high output in a relatively short period of time. This paper explores the possibility of a ‘technological breakthrough’ in the renewable energy sector, using a partial equilibrium model of energy generation with endogenous R&D. Our results indicate, that due to increasing returns-to-scale, a multiplicity of equilibria can arise. In the model, two stable states can coexist, one characterized by a lower and one by higher supply of renewable energy. The transition from the low-output to the high-output equilibrium is characterized by a discontinuous rise in R&D activity and capacity investments in the renewable energy sector. The transition can be triggered by a rise in world energy demand, by a drop in the supply of fossil fuels, or by policy intervention. Under market conditions, the transition occurs later than in the social optimum. Hence, we identify a market failure related to path-dependence and technological lock-in, that can justify a strong policy intervention initially. Paradoxically, well-intended energy-saving policies can actually lead to higher emissions, as they reduce the incentives to invest in renewable energies by having a cushioning effect on the energy price. Hence, these policies should be supplemented by other instruments that restore the incentives to invest in renewable energies. Finally, we discuss the influence of monopoly power in the market for innovations. We show that market power can alleviate the problem of technological lock-in, but creates a new market failure that reduces static efficiency.     

What’s powering wind? The effect of the U.S. state renewable energy policies on wind capacity (1994–2012)

As of 2012, 29 states had enacted a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), while 37 states had at least one utility offering Green Power Purchasing (GPP) to their customers. The goal of both policies is to promote the adoption of clean, renewable energy. This article examines the influence of these polices on wind capacity across the United States from 1994–2012, a period of significant expansion of the wind generation market. The analysis focuses on wind because as compared with other modern renewable energy sources, wind is the only renewable energy source to make significant inroads into the U.S. electricity generation market. My findings indicate that while there have been significant increases in commercial scale wind generation capacity, neither RPS nor GPP programmes had a significant influence on within state wind capacity additions.     

Do German renewable energy resources affect prices and mitigate market power in the French electricity market ?

Several empirical studies show that renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, typically supplied at low marginal cost, can cause electricity market prices to fall. Recent theoretical research and simulations also highlight the link between the integration of renewable energy and market performance in an oligopolistic energy market. This article looks at these dynamics in the context of cross-border effects between two highly interconnected electricity markets, France and Germany. Using a rich panel dataset for hourly data from November 2009 to July 2015, I estimate the impact of German wind and solar power production on both prices and market power in the French wholesale market. The findings highlight the importance of coordinating energy policies via joint renewable energy support schemes among interconnected European electricity markets.     

Global Expansion of Renewable Energy Generation: An Analysis of Policy Instruments

This study analyzes the degree to which renewable energy policies, in particular feed-in tariffs and renewable portfolio standards, facilitate renewable energy generation growth across a wide range of countries using an original cross-national dataset of 164 countries between 1990 and 2010. Results provide evidence that both policies are important predictors of renewable energy market growth. The dependent variable is operationalized first as the percentage of total electricity from renewable energy and second as the annual increase in total renewable energy generation in a country. Results are robust to several alternative model specifications including those that exclude hydroelectric generation in the construct of renewable energy. The degree to which feed-in tariffs are endogenous, however, is not conclusive. Besides the prominent role of these policies, results reveal that factors related to annual increases in renewable energy differ from those related to an overall transition toward greater reliance on renewable energy. This suggests that simply increasing renewable generation does not necessarily decrease reliance on fossil fuels or help countries make the shift to a clean energy economy.     

Renewable energy subsidies: Second-best policy or fatal aberration for mitigation?

This paper evaluates the consequences of renewable energy policies on welfare and energy prices in a world where carbon pricing is imperfect and the regulator seeks to limit emissions to a (cumulative) target. The imperfectness of the carbon price is motivated by political concerns regarding distributional effects of increased energy prices. Hence, carbon prices are considered to be temporarily or permanently absent or endogenously constrained by their effect on energy prices. We use a global general equilibrium model with an intertemporal fossil resource sector and calculate intertemporally optimal policies from a broad set of policy instruments including carbon taxes, renewable energy subsidies and feed-in-tariffs, among others. If carbon pricing is permanently missing, mitigation costs increase by a multiple (compared to the optimal carbon pricing policy) for a wide range of parameters describing extraction costs, renewable energy costs, substitution possibilities and normative attitudes. Furthermore, we show that small deviations from the second-best subsidy can lead to strong increases in emissions and consumption losses. This confirms the rising concerns about the occurrence of unintended side effects of climate policy – a new version of the green paradox. Smart combinations of carbon prices and renewable energy subsidies, however, can achieve ambitious mitigation targets at moderate additional costs without leading to high energy price increases.     

Do commercial real estate prices have predictive content for GDP?

Using a uniquely compiled database concerning rental prices of commercial real estates, which are property of the largest broker in the Netherlands, we examine whether these prices have predictive value for quarterly economic growth. In contrast to related studies, we document that the mean price contains no relevant information, whereas other properties of the price distributions have. We show that these distributions can be described by mixtures of two distributions, reflecting low-end and high-end price segments. Our main findings are that higher economic growth is predictable from more new buildings being rented, more variation in the price levels and a larger size of the low-price segment, while lower economic growth emerges when the differences in prices between high-end and low-end segments increase and when the average price level in the low-price segment increases.     

(Monopolistic) resource extraction and limit pricing: The market penetration of competitively produced synfuels

This paper analyzes the market penetration of a competitively produced synfuel, e.g., solar energy, in a market that is initially dominated by a resource extracting monopoly. The availability of the renewable substitute depends not only on the price/cost ratio but also on the installed capacities, which reflect historical investments. As a consequence, the resource monopoly faces a discontinuous residual demand schedule. The dynamic interactions between the resource cartel and the synfuel industry are modelled as a differential game; the (open loop) Nash equilibrium is applied to this game. It will be shown that the commodity price will exceed the production costs of the backstop and that the transition from the periods of resource dependence to the backstop technology will be gradual.     

The effects of wind generation capacity on electricity prices and generation costs: a Monte Carlo analysis

We use Monte Carlo analysis to examine the potential of increased renewable generation to provide a hedge against variability in energy prices and costs. Fuel costs, electricity demand and wind generation are allowed to vary and a unit commitment and economic dispatch algorithm is employed to produce cost-minimizing generation schedules under different levels of installed wind capacity. Increased wind capacity reduces the mean and the variance of production costs but only the variance of electricity prices. Wind generators see their market revenues increase while consumer payments and fossil generator profits do not considerably vary as wind capacity increases. Risk aversion is captured by considering the conditional value-at-risk for both consumers and producers. The optimal level of wind generation increases as risk aversion increases due to the potential of wind to act as a hedge against very high electricity prices in high fuel price scenarios.     

我国可再生能源发展的障碍分析及政策选择

充分利用可再生能源对我国实施可持续发展战略具有重要意义.回顾了我国可再生能源政策的发展历程,深入分析了我国发展可再生能源的障碍,最后从支持开发可再生能源市场,尤其是消费市场的视角来探讨我国可供选择的可再生能源政策.     

Energy,unemployment and trade

This article investigates the dynamic relationships among sectoral economic activities, macro expenditure patterns, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and unemployment in 41 countries from 1980 to 2014. The state of the art econometric techniques, both linear and non-linear panel and time series estimation techniques are used. The results show that industrialization, services sector, government expenditure and trade openness play a positive role in reducing unemployment, while agriculture and renewable energy consumption increase unemployment. This might be, in part, due to recent technological advancements and large capital intensive investments in agriculture and renewable energy sectors. Therefore, dedicated social and labour market policies need to be adopted to complement greening economic policies.     

Forecasting technological substitution: The logistic model of energy systems revisited

A simple logistic model of market substitution has been applied to situations where price and cost parameters vary in time. In such cases the market share does not necessarily evolve as a monotonous function of time. Although this particular feature of the model has not been validated against data from past experience, it can be applied heuristically to studying future trends in market penetration. As an example, possible competition patterns of coal and nuclear power as primary fuels for electricity production have been examined under various combinations of economical parameters. The illustrative results involve both cases where the nuclear contribution would be phased out as well as those where nuclear power could still maintain a strong position a few more decades to come.     

Fuel Efficiency Improvements: Feedback Mechanisms and Distributional Effects in the Oil Market

We study the interactions between fuel efficiency improvements in the transport sector and the oil market, where the efficiency improvements are policy-induced in certain regions of the world. We are especially interested in feedback mechanisms of fuel efficiency such as the rebound effect, carbon leakage and the “green paradox”, but also the distributional effects for oil producers. An intertemporal numerical model of the international oil market is introduced, where OPEC-Core producers have market power. We find that the rebound effect has a noticeable effect on the transport sector, with the magnitude depending on the oil demand elasticity. In the benchmark simulations, we calculate that almost half of the energy savings may be lost to a direct rebound effect and an additional 10% to oil price adjustments. In addition, there is substantial intersectoral leakage to other sectors through lower oil prices in the regions that introduce the policy. There is a small green paradox effect in the sense that oil consumption increases initially when the fuel efficiency measures are gradually implemented. Finally, international carbon leakage will be significant if policies are not implemented in all regions; we estimate leakage rates of 35% or higher when only major consuming regions implement fuel economy policies. Non-OPEC producers will to a larger degree than OPEC producers cut back on its oil supply as a response to fuel efficiency policies due to high production costs.     

Grid Parity and Cost Reduction Incentives for “Green Producers” in Electricity Markets

In an electricity market, a feed-in tariff promotes attainment of a so-called “green quota” through a system of subsidies designed to ensure renewable energy investors a “normal rate-of-return”. However, the subsidies should track technological advances closely with the expectation that they will be phased out when the renewable technology reaches an appropriate “maturity threshold” (i.e., grid parity). Grid parity is typically defined as the point where the levelized cost of electricity equals the price of purchasing electricity from the grid. However, it has been recognized that this definition of grid parity is flawed due to the intermittent nature of many renewable resources. We propose a definition which allows us to distinguish between grid parity and least-cost grid parity. We demonstrate that under a green quota and an emissions cap, welfare may be higher if the policy maker forgoes least-cost grid parity and phases out the feed-in system sooner rather than later. We show that while green producer cost reduction incentives under the feed-in tariff are perverse, they can be restored by offering a “menu” of values of the policy variables and allowing full discretion in terms of the decision to engage in cost-padding, pure waste, etc.     

可再生能源的技术创新障碍与激励政策建议

发展可再生能源具有重要的战略意义与现实的经济意义,但可再生能源在我国仍处于幼稚产业阶段,推进可再生能源的创新面临着诸多障碍。分析了这些障碍的类型,包括路径依赖障碍、市场门槛障碍和技术性障碍等,并从创新政策的角度提出改进的建议。     

Liberalizing the energy markets of Western Europe – a computable equilibrium model approach

Using a computable equilibrium model, the short-run effects of a radical liberalization of the West European natural gas and electricity markets are examined. In each model country, oil, gas, coal and electricity are produced, traded and consumed. There are world markets for oil and coal, and well-integrated competitive markets for gas and electricity in Western Europe. Gas and electricity are transported and traded across markets under the assumption of ideal third-party access regimes for transportation and limited capacities in the transportation networks. It is found that relative to the data year 1996, radical liberalization reduces the average end-user price of natural gas by around 20%, and the average end-user price of electricity by around 50%. The supply of electricity increases by around 20%, mainly due to increased coal power production. After such liberalization, coal power emerges with the largest market share of electricity production in Western Europe.     

Efficient indirect regulation under Protection for Sale

Regulatory intervention is necessary to overcome market failures. However, this kind of intervention may also create Protection for Sale conditions in the market—which might, in turn, lead to an inefficient resource allocation. This paper examines the effect of an indirect intervention on regulated market welfare under Optimal Regulation and Protection for Sale conditions. Although under Optimal Regulation conditions there is zero welfare-loss as it derives from Differential Price Policy (DPP), it seems that under substantial Protection for Sale conditions this price policy increases the welfare-loss, and therefore a Uniform Price Policy (UPP) might achieve a smaller welfare-loss—due to the “free-riding” effect. Furthermore, this paper suggests that in between these two price policies lays a third option, a Combined Price Policy, that can balance between the accurate resource allocation (DPP) and the political pressure reduction (UPP) in order to reduce the welfare-loss and to increase the market efficiency.     

对技术创新推动彩电产业结构调整的思考

彩电市场竞争中洋彩电采用“技术领先”策略占据技术制高点,国产彩电采用“技术适宜”策略占领了市场主体。国产彩电在品牌市场份额竞争的“价格大上呀”中展开库存调整,价格调整,生产调整,技术调整,应深入进行技术战略调整,把“技术适宜”策略调整为“技术创新”战略。通过观念创新,技术创新,管理创新推动彩电产业结的调整,获得彩电市场技术优势,提升国际市场竞争力。     

建筑节能市场交易定价模型研究

目前针对建筑节能实施的问题,各地提出了许多激励政策,如上海市拟建立的以市场交易为核心的建筑节能新机制主张将政策与市场结合推动建筑节能,但建筑节能产品市场交易的量化研究还较为缺乏。本文基于以市场交易为核心的建筑节能信用银行理论,运用制度经济学方法,解决了识别建筑节能交易市场定价的盲区问题,为建筑节能政策的制订提供了理论参考。     

Determinants of the premium in forward contracts

Whilst the benefits of forward contracting for goods and services have been extensively researched in terms of mitigating market power effects in spot markets, we analyse how the risk in spot price formation induces a counteracting premium in the contract prices. We consider and test a wide-ranging set of propositions, involving fundamental, behavioural, dynamic, market conduct and shock components, on a long data set from the most liquid of European electricity forward markets, the EEX. We show that part of what is conventionally regarded as the market price of risk in electricity is actually that of its underlying fuel commodity, gas; that market power has a double effect on prices, insofar as it increases spot prices and induces a forward premium; that oil price sentiment spills over and that the premium reacts to scarcity and the higher moments of spot price uncertainty. We observe that considerations of the scale and determinants of the forward premium are at least as important as the market power effects in spot market price formation when evaluating the efficiency of wholesale power trading.     

德国能源转型的经验、挑战及其启示

大力发展可再生能源,是世界各国应对气候变化、提高能源供应安全的共同选择。近年来,德国通过建设高度灵活的电力系统、推动电力与热力行业的深度融合、大力提高能效等方式,向低碳能源结构的转型取得了显著的成效。与此同时,德国能源转型也面临着成本高昂、市场体制机制不适应、整体政策不协调等挑战。我国正在实施从以煤为主到多元发展的能源结构调整,借鉴德国的经验和教训,在大力发展可再生能源过程中,应充分考虑社会承受能力,处理好清洁、经济、可靠三者的关系;加强制度设计,提升电力系统灵活性;在未来电力市场建设中,在保存能源市场的同时增添容量市场,为保证电力系统安全稳定运行提供必要的支撑服务。