The industry origins of Japanese economic growth

This paper presents new data on the sources of growth for the Japanese economy over the period 1960–2000. The principal innovation is the incorporation of detailed information for individual industries, including those involved in the production of computers, communications equipment, and electronic components as information technology equipment. We show that economic growth is dominated by investments and productivity growth in information technology, both for individual industries and the economy as a whole. We also show that the revival of total factor productivity growth accounts for the modest resurgence of the Japanese economy since 1995. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (4) (2005) 482–542.     

技术创新效率的内生性与随机变动效应研究——要素投入中知识资本与人力资本的差异化影响

知识资本投入和人力资本投入能够推动效率变革,从而促进生产要素的集约利用,提高技术创新效率和全要素生产率,同时也将对技术创新效率的随机变动产生差异化影响。文章采用马尔可夫链模型研究了技术创新效率的内生性与随机波动效应,讨论了知识资本投入和人力资本投入对技术创新效率变动趋势的差异化影响与异质性特征。研究发现,知识资本投入中技术创新效率具有内生性且随机变动效应明显,知识积累对技术进步产生负向冲击效应,加剧技术创新效率不确定性变化和随机波动;人力资本投入能够缓和阶段性技术进步对技术创新效率的负面冲击,使技术创新效率随机变动趋向平缓;知识资本投入比人力资本投入为技术创新效率变动带来更多不确定因素,技术创新效率不确定性和非线性趋势主要是由知识资本投入与技术进步不同步引起的。在理论分析的基础上,运用广义矩估计方法量化分析了技术创新效率的变动趋势和随机波动效应,检验了技术创新效率随机变动不确定程度、技术创新效率的内生性和非线性变动趋势。建立和健全知识资本等创新要素的市场配置和运行机制,深化科技体制改革,保护知识产权,能够提高全要素生产率和技术创新效率。     

论技术、技术扩散与经济增长

本文从经济学意义的角度,从效率及效率的提高出发给“技术”明确的概念界定,进而引入“技术存量”和“技术流量”的概念。从而将“技术”、“技术进步”、“技术创新”和“技术扩散”串连成递进的有内在联系的有机整体。以一个全新的角度对影响经济增长的因素进行分析。     

循环经济技术范式的生态化转型

传统工业经济时代的技术范式在其内在逻辑、科学基础以及目标实现三个方面具有的逆生态性带来了环境污染和资源耗竭的问题,这些问题在旧的技术范式下无法得到根本解决。循环经济在本质上是一次技术范式的革命,其革命性在于其技术范式的生态化转轨型。     

The roles of electricity and ICT in economic growth: Case Finland

A quantitative look is taken at electricity and ICT as the engines of economic growth in Finland which was one of the leading countries in the electrification of mechanical drive in industry and which today is one of the leading information societies. It is shown that ICT’s contribution to GDP growth in 1990-2004 was three times as large as electricity’s contribution in 1920-1938. The improvement of multi-factor productivity in production accounted for 60% of ICT’s contribution but only one third of electricity’s. Electricity’s growth contribution was smaller but ICT’s larger than in the United States.     

信息產業的可持續發展對安徽經濟增長的效益分析

本文采用定量和定性相結合的分析方法,在較為全面分析信息產業的可持續發展對經濟增長影響路徑的基礎上,利用貢獻率和拉動率兩個指標就安徽省信息工業對工業的影響和信息產業對GDP的影響效應進行了測定,揭示了安徽省信息產業可持續發展中存在的問題和原因,提出了加快安徽省信息產業可持續發展的對策建議。     

技术和制度内生条件下的中国经济增长

当前,我国经济增长面临的新问题主要表现为自然资源的约束全面强化;流动性过剩,造成国内物价上涨压力增大;人民币不断升值和美国经济下滑,导致内外需双重不足。仅依靠传统的经济增长理论指导,采用粗放型、投资主导型、政府主导型、欠发展型的增长模式,不能解决当前经济增长中的诸多现实问题,必须借鉴新经济增长理论的技术内生对经济增长贡献的研究成果,并且不断进行制度创新才能推动我国经济持续稳定健康发展。     

The saving–investment correlation and origins of productivity shocks

This paper shows how savings and investment can be positively correlated despite capital being perfectly mobile across countries. The saving-investment (SI) correlation depends on the origin and the volatility of macroeconomic (productivity) shocks, the persistence of these shocks and country-size. Simulating a two-country Real Business Cycle (RBC) model we show that as the variance of common shocks increases (relative to country-specific shocks), as the persistence of these shocks decreases and as country-size increases, the SI correlation increases. Using annual data from 1960 to 2002, productivity changes in 11 OECD countries are decomposed into common and country-specific shocks (from which foreign shocks are also constructed). The empirical findings show that the 11 countries share a statistically significant common component in productivity changes and common shocks generally account for at least half of the variations in the countries’ productivity changes. We then use the estimated variances of the shocks, in addition to each country's size, in the RBC model to compute the predicted SI correlation for each country, under the assumption that capital is perfectly mobile. The predicted SI correlation is then compared to the actual correlation to assess the relative degree of capital mobility in the 11 countries. The findings indicate that Norway, the Netherlands and the US have the highest degree of capital mobility whereas in Canada, Sweden, Belgium and Japan capital mobility has been the lowest.     

新疆固定资产投资的回顾与展望

投资不仅是新疆经济增长的第一推动力,也极大地促进了地方财政收入的增长、经济结构的转变及经济运行质量的提高。本文对改革开放30年来新疆固定资产投资进行了较为全面地梳理和回顾,并提出了在新的历史时期新疆固定资产投资应关注的领域和方向。     

信息技术与二十一世纪企业管理

本文系统阐述了在信息时代企业管理所面临的“八化”变革 ,提出了实现企业管理心智模式改变是迎合新经济社会的首要任务 ,以信息技术为基石的管理变革将是深刻的、全方位的 ,它将是二十一世纪企业管理的主流方向。     

Heterogeneity and the FDI versus export decision of Japanese manufacturers

We investigate whether productivity differences explain why some manufacturers sell only to the domestic market while others serve foreign markets through exports and/or FDI. When overseas production offers no cost advantages, our model predicts that investors should be more productive than exporters. An extension allowing for low-cost foreign production can reverse this prediction. Data for 1070 large Japanese firms reveal that firms that invest abroad and export are more productive than firms that just export. Among overseas investors, more productive firms span a wider range of host-country income levels. J. Japanese Int. Economies 17 (4) (2003) 448–467.     

Great Moderation in the Japanese economy

This paper investigates the contribution of technology and nontechnology shocks to the changing volatility of output and labor growth in the postwar Japanese economy. A time-varying vector autoregression (VAR) with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatilities is modeled and long-run restriction is used to identify technology shocks in line with Galí (1999) and Galí and Gambetti (2009). We find that technology shocks are responsible for significant changes in the output volatility throughout the total sample period while the volatility of labor input is largely attributed to nontechnology shocks. The driving force behind these results is the negative correlation between labor input and productivity, which holds significantly and persistently over the postwar period.     

中国区域经济发展差异及其原因分析

本文在梳理和总结我国地区经济发展进程中所表现出的特征基础上,运用方差分析方法探讨地区经济发展模式。结果表明,我国区域经济增长模式呈现出由粗放型向集约型的转变特征,造成我国各省之间收入差距扩大的原因主要是集约性因素。国际贸易通过传染效应、干中学效应、演示和培训效应以及竞争效应可以提高生产效率和技术能力,优化产业结构,进而促进经济增长。     

技术进步对发展我国循环经济的作用探讨

循环经济是解决我国经济可持续健康发展的根本途径,发展我国循环经济,需要必要的技术保障条件,需要依靠技术创新和技术进步。本文在阐述技术进步涵义的基础上,简要论述了技术进步对发展我国循环经济的重要作用。     

劳动力供给、生产率与外商直接投资工资外溢效应

本文利用中国1999-2007年441个四位码工业行业数据,考察外商直接投资在产业内部和产业之间,通过直接影响劳动力市场供给方式和间接生产率外溢方式对中国内资行业的工资外溢效应。研究结果表明:(1)外商直接投资(FDI)通过直接和间接方式对中国内资行业工资在产业内部和产业之间都产生了显著的正向外溢效应;(2)国有行业比重提高会显著促进FDI通过劳动力供给方式对内资行业产生工资外溢效应,但同样会显著阻碍FDI通过间接的生产率外溢方式对内资行业产生工资外溢效应;(3)FDI对内资劳动密集型行业的工资外溢效应显著高于资本密集型行业,FDI进入显著缩小了中国不同劳动生产率工业部门的工资收入差距。     

产业集群对技术创新的外部经济效应分析

本文从产业集群的创新载体效应、创新激励效应两方面分析了产业集群对技术创新的外部经济效应。产业集群创新载体效应主要从政府扶植效应和创新平台效应两方面进行阐述;产业集群创新激励效应主要从成本效应、风险规避效应、"企业衍生"效应三方面进行阐述。     

Can older workers stay productive? The role of ICT skills and training

This paper quantitatively examines the effects of aging on labor productivity using individual worker data in Korea. We find that information and communications technology (ICT) skills and participation in job-related training can help older workers stay productive. The estimation results present that ICT skills, a measure incorporating an individual’s proficiency in ICT skills and their utilization in the workplace, has a positive effect on the wages of the older workers aged 50–64 with a high level of education or in a skill-intensive occupation. Job training also has a significant positive effect on the wages of older workers. These results imply that compared to younger workers, well-educated older workers can obtain greater productivity increase through ICT skill attainment and their adequate use, and job-training. The evidence suggests that a productivity decrease in line with the aging process can be mitigated by training aging workers to equip themselves with ICT skills.     

Call For Papers: The Eighth International Convention of the East Asian Economic Association

This paper provides empirical estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) trends in a sample of 17 APEC countries over the period 1975 to 1996. TFP growth is an important measure of an economy's performance and if measured correctly it can provide valuable guidance on issues related to the assessment of sustainable growth trends. We use the Malmquist index to measure TFP growth and decompose it into an efficiency change and a technical change component. This decomposition provides extra insight on assessing sustainable growth trends. The measurement technique itself is regarded as a significant improvement over previous conventional measures of TFP growth. The results are very interesting. Japan, Thailand and primarily Indonesia and Malaysia are identified as countries exhibiting on average negative TFP growth rates in the 1975-1990 period. In all these countries as well as in South Korea and Taiwan the main cause of low TFP growth is a poor (negative) efficiency record. The average TFP growth rate for Japan and Malaysia is positive in the 1975-1996 period but the efficiency change component remains negative. In all these countries the main contributor to labour productivity growth is capital accumulation. Unlike previous studies we find no evidence of a poor TFP growth performance for Singapore. Furthermore, we estimate that most of Singapore's labour productivity growth is driven by efficiency change. Estimates of rates of convergence towards the frontier economy that is estimated (not assumed as in other studies) to be the US, are also reported.