“Local economic reviews: In need of a change in direction?”

Lancashire County Council, 1987: Lancashire 1987: An Economic Situation Report. Lancaster: Economic Intelligence Unit, County Planning Department, Lancashire County Council, no price stated.

Warrington Borough Council, 1987: Employment Issues Discussion Paper.

Warrington: Report of the Planning and Estates Officer, Warrington Borough Council, no price stated.

ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited, 1987: The Black Country Urban Development Corporation: A Strategy for Development. Birmingham: ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited, no price stated.

Townroe, P. M., 1987: Norwich: A Time of Opportunity. Norwich: University of East Anglia, Economics Research Centre, £20.     

Parents’ Use of Subsidiaries to “Push Down” Earnings Management: Evidence from Italy

We find evidence consistent with Italian nonlisted subsidiaries engaging in accrual and real earnings management, so that their listed parents can meet or beat benchmarks. Thus, the parent firm drives the earnings management of the subsidiaries. We identify parents that are more likely to have managed earnings as the ones that avoid a small loss or meet or beat analyst forecast by a few cents. Cross‐sectional analysis reveals that Big 4 auditors mitigate accrual earnings management at the subsidiary level and that family‐owned firms use earnings management through nonlisted subsidiaries mainly to avoid reporting losses. Finally, we find that parent firms communicate earnings management strategies to their subsidiaries using board proximity. Our evidence shows that business groups manage earnings differently from single firms, pushing earnings management down to subsidiaries. It also supports the monitoring role of Big 4 auditors in a business group setting and contributes to understanding financial reporting decisions in family‐owned firms.     

The “LIFO Reserve” and the Value of the Firm: Theory and Empirical Evidence*

Abstract. A valuation approach is used to examine the effect of the LIFO inventory method on the relation between the market value of a firm's stock and the book value of equity. The paper develops three competing hypotheses that have different predictions regarding the relation between the LIFO reserve and the market value of equity. Results indicate a significant negative relation between the LIFO reserve and the value of equity, inconsistent with the pricing of LIFO reserves as unbooked assets, but consistent with a model that views the LIFO reserve as a measure of the effect of increases in factor input prices on firm value. Résumé. Les auteurs ont recours à une évaluation pour examiner l'incidence de la méthode DEPS de détermination du coût des stocks sur la relation entre le cours de l'action d'une société et sa valeur comptable. Ils élaborent trois hypothèses concurrentes qui débouchent sur des prédictions différentes en ce qui a trait à la relation entre la réserve résultant de l'utilisation de la méthode DEPS et la valeur marchande de l'entreprise. Les résultats indiquent une relation négative significative entre cette réserve et la valeur comptable de l'entreprise, relation qui ne concorde pas avec le prix de ladite réserve que l'on voudrait assimiler à un actif non comptabilisé, mais qui cadre avec un modèle selon lequel la réserve résultant de l'utilisation de la méthode DEPS est considérée comme une mesure de l'incidence des hausses du prix des intrants sur la valeur de l'entreprise.     

A Multiperiod Model and Experimental Evidence of Independence and “Lowballing”*

Abstract. Auditors, regulators, and academics are interested in the pricing practice of “lowballing” and its relationship to auditor independence. Several analytical models have examined these issues. However, these theories have gone untested primarily due to a lack of field data concerning important environmental variables. In this study, a multiperiod model of lowballing and independence is developed and tested in laboratory markets via the experimental economics methodology. The study contributes to the literature in two respects. First, it represents one of the first studies providing empirical evidence and theory testing of the relationship between lowballing and independence. Second, the model presents a new rationale for low-ball pricing and its relationship to auditor independence. Lowballing and impairment of independence, occurring without exogenous transaction costs, are caused by positing cross-sectional variation in audit cost and quality and an informational advantage that accrues to an incumbent auditor-client pair regarding future variation in these audit dimensions. The model is operationalized in a multiperiod laboratory market consisting of multiple sellers and buyers. Sixteen markets are conducted to test price and reporting predictions of the model. The markets strongly exhibit lowballing behavior, but the exact price predictions are generally not supported. The markets also support reporting predictions, with sellers deviating from truthful reporting (impairing their independence) only when additional future profits are greater than the additional cost of misreporting. Data availability. The laboratory market data used in this paper are available from the authors upon request.     

The meaning of “social safety nets”

In Southeast Asia, the issue of “social safety nets” (SSNs) has emerged more prominently since the financial crisis. Despite the increased interest in social safety nets, there is still considerable confusion among scholars and national and international organizations regarding the use and meaning of the term. This article considers the different definitions of the term—particularly as it was used during the Asian Financial Crisis—and to attempt to clarify its meaning and proper use.The safety net analogy is drawn from high-wire walkers who are protected by a safety net if they fall. The safety net prevents any walker who falls—unexpectedly or not—from hitting the floor and incurring catastrophic injuries. Following this line of reasoning, it is not surprising to learn that some organizations and scholars use the term SSN such that it encompasses private and public mechanisms that assist individuals in maintaining a minimum level of consumption.The term “social safety net” (SSN) began to be used by Bretton Woods’ institutions in connection with structural adjustment programs related to their lending programs. Developing countries introduced SSNs to mitigate the social impact of structural adjustment measures on specific low-income groups. They were initially formulated to serve three objectives: poverty alleviation, to make adjustment programs more politically acceptable, and institutional reform. During the Asian Financial Crisis, there was a great deal of confusion regarding the content and consequent identification of SSN programs.Public SSN programs can be classified into formal and informal safety nets. Formal and informal safety nets are, generally, distinguished by law enforcement: formal safety nets are those which legally guarantee individuals access to economic or social support whereas informal safety nets provide likelihood of support to individuals to assure them of attaining or remaining above the designated minimum standard of living but with no legal guarantee.Informal SSNs can be divided into private and public ones. Examples of private informal SSNs include transfers from family members, friends, neighbors and community members and institutions, including NGOs, while those of public informal SSNs refer to the support which individuals can hope for from the government, through programs which generate assets or employment, transfer income, or provide basic social services, as a means of helping affected individuals from falling below the designated minimum standard of living. The difference between formal and informal public SSNs is whether there exists a formal legal support of the assistance.The article has provided more discussion on the definitions of SSN used by the World Bank, ESCAP, ILO and TDRI.In conclusion, the authors note that the tremendous variation in the use of the term invites confusion and makes it virtually useless as a technical concept. The very nature of the metaphor invokes a vision of a large net that encompass a number of different types of programs. In many cases it is not even possible to list specific programs that are included, as the particular forms of these programs could, of course, vary with place, time and circumstances. Complicating things further, the term is sometimes used in a very narrow sense. Given the low probability that usage of the term will ever be standardized, economists and national/international organizations might be well served by avoiding the term completely and instead using its component parts.     

Discussion of “The Effects of Vertical Pay Dispersion: Experimental Evidence in a Budget Setting”

Guo, Libby, and Liu (2017) (hereafter GLL), examine how pairs of experimental subjects interact in a game framed as a funding request from a privately informed subordinate to a superior. When the superior's pay is higher than the subordinate's, subordinates display more self‐serving dishonesty and superiors are more tolerant of it than when their pay is the same. In this discussion, I compare GLL's design with an ultimatum game, consider additional tensions that arise in pay‐level comparisons, address the applicability of their results, and suggest some extensions. I conclude by calling for new theory that regularizes GLL's surprising findings.     

Salience and the Disposition Effect: Evidence from the Introduction of “Cash‐Outs” in Betting Markets

The disposition effect describes the tendency of investors to sell assets that have increased in value since purchase, and hold those that have not. We analyze the introduction of betting market “Cash‐Outs,” which provide a continual update—and therefore increase the salience—of bettors' paper profits/losses on each bet. We find that the introduction of Cash‐Out increased the disposition effect in this market, as punters sold their profitable bets with greater frequency than before. We do not, however, find that the disposition effect has any impact on asset prices, either before or after this intervention.     

The roots of today's “women's jobs” and “men's jobs”: Using the index of dissimilarity to measure occupational segregation by gender

Looked at broadly, occupational distributions by sex in the United States have changed remarkably little since 1900; accordingly, researchers have found a slow rate of decline in the index of dissimilarity (a measure of occupational segregation by gender), estimates of which have so far been confined to the 20th century. This paper analyzes trends in the index over the latter part of the 19th century. The results indicate that during this period, industrialization and the associated changes in the nature of the business enterprise resulted in a rapid declinne in occupational segregation by gender, as measured by the index. This decline occurs earliest in cities experiencing early industrialization. Index estimates are presented for the United States and for selected midwestern cities, and changes in the index are decomposed into occupational mix effects and sex composition effects. Occupation-specific index changes are used to identify which occupations influenced changes in the overall index. The results indicate that the dynamic occupational shifts of the 19th century set the stage for the “men's jobs” and “women's jobs” that have been so persistently stable in the 20th century.     

The “flying geese” model of Asian economic development: origin, theoretical extensions, and regional policy implications

This paper presents a comprehensive review of the “flying geese” (FG) model, which recently has become well known as a way of explaining rapid economic growth in East Asia. Kaname Akamatsu’s 1930s work introduced the concept. Through statistical analysis of industrial development in pre-war Japan, this author followed Akamatsu in developing a theoretical model called Kojima Model I. Subsequent works produced Kojima Models II and III.The regional transmission of FG industrialization has been noted as an engine of Asian economic growth, due in part to Saburo Okita’s forceful presentation of the theme of the FG model in a 1985 lecture. It is hoped that this paper will help to advance a better understanding of the FG model, its historical origin, its theoretical extensions, and its relevancy, as well as its incompleteness as a model of economic development.     

The “hidden” side of the “flying-geese” catch-up model: Japan’s dirigiste institutional setup and a deepening financial morass

Akamatsu’s original “flying geese” (FG) growth model is often used as a frame of reference for both further conceptual elaborations and empirical explorations. So far, only the positive results of FG development have been focused on and emphasized in connection with Asia’s phenomenal growth in the precrisis period. The Japanese economy, supposedly Asia’s lead goose, is in the eleventh consecutive year of stagnation. How has such a once successful lead goose come to be stricken by financial woes? This paper points out that Japan’s once miraculous FG growth was made possible because it established an effective dirigiste catch-up regime in the early postwar period but that Japan’s present financial predicament is paradoxically a path-dependent outcome of this FG strategy. The institutional, especially financial, dimension of FG strategy needs to be taken into account to explain why such a strategy once proved effective but later culminated in a deepening financial morass. The FG model should encompass not only the industrial dimension of catch-up but also its institutional, particularly financial, dimension.     

Discussion of “Relating Product Prices to Long‐Run Marginal Cost: Evidence from Solar Photovoltaic Modules”

My discussion of Reichelstein and Sahoo (2018) is organized into three parts. First, what is the context for this work? That is, what are the energy and climate stakes? Second, what does the paper do? I will re‐work the equation defining the components of long‐run marginal cost to better reflect what is actually estimated and to better highlight some important choices about how the different components are modeled. Third, and most importantly, how do the results inform business decisions and policy choices regarding energy and climate? What more do we need?