世界林产品贸易主要影响因素的实证分析

为了考察各种因素对世界林产品贸易格局的影响程度,本文检验了基于要素禀赋的比较优势理论在世界林产品贸易中的适用性。结果表明：林产品总体、原木、其他原材、锯材、人造板以及木浆和回收纸均按照比较优势参与国际贸易。在此基础上,本文采用产业内贸易模型对影响世界纸和纸板贸易的主要因素进行了实证分析,研究发现,世界上夫部分纸和纸板贸易以产业内贸易的方式进行。     

中美木质林产品贸易的竞争性与合作性分析

基于2014-2018年中美木质林产品贸易数据,通过测算显示性比较优势指数、贸易互补性指数、贸易结合度指数三个指标综合分析贸易战对中美木质林产品贸易的影响。研究结果表明中国和美国间木质林产品贸易合作性大于竞争性,在贸易战的影响下两国木质林产品产业竞争力均显著下降。总体来说,贸易战对中国木质林产品行业的现状及发展影响更大。     

中国林产品比较优势的动态演变：1992～2017

文章基于1992～2017年联合国商品贸易数据库(UN Comtrade)的产品贸易面板数据,采用显示性相对贸易比较优势指数测度中国林产品比较优势,在分析中国林产品比较优势时序演变的基础上,运用核密度估计方法和马尔可夫链模型,从时间分布特性演变与状态流动趋势视角,创新性地分析中国林产品比较优势的动态演变特征。研究发现:(1)中国林产品比较优势总体水平不高,但呈现波动上升态势,林产品比较优势的提升是一个循序渐进的过程,存在一定的"马太效应";(2)人造板、木制品和木家具等劳动密集型林产品呈现比较优势收敛趋势,而资源和资本技术密集型林产品的比较优势则分别呈现恶化和增强趋势;(3)加入WTO与经济危机对中国林产品比较优势分别产生正向和负向的影响。因此,提出4点政策启示:(1)密切关注国际贸易环境,防范化解林产品贸易风险;(2)重视原材料供给保障,改善资源密集型林产品比较劣势;(3)继续保持已有比较优势,缓解劳动密集型林产品比较优势下降趋势;(4)进一步优化林业产业结构,提升资本技术密集型林产品比较优势。该研究以期为中国企业参与林产品国际贸易竞争提供参考,为中国政府制定林业产业发展政策与林产品贸易政策提供决策依据,对于提高中国林产品国际竞争力、促进林产品贸易高质量发展具有重要意义。     

中国-东盟木质林产品贸易竞争性与互补性研究

基于UNcomtrade数据库整理的数据,分析中国与东盟木质林产品贸易状况,并利用显示性比较优势指数与贸易互补性指数分析中国与东盟木质林产品贸易的竞争性与互补性。结果表明,中国与东盟木质林产品进出口贸易总体呈增长趋势,贸易竞争性与互补性并存,木质家具、单板、人造板、木制品等劳动密集型木质林产品的竞争性大于互补性,原木、其他原材、锯材等资源密集型木质林产品互补性大于竞争性,软木及回收纸等木质林产品竞争性与互补性均不强。     

世界主要林产品贸易国林产品比较优势动态演变

采用显示性相对贸易比较优势指数测算世界主要林产品贸易国的林产品比较优势并运用马尔可夫链方法分析其动态演变特征。结果表明:世界主要林产品贸易国整体林产品比较优势的演变较为稳定,呈现收敛趋势;资源密集型林产品比较优势演变程度较高,以向弱比较优势演变为主;劳动密集型林产品比较优势演变程度最高,以比较优势减弱的趋势为主;资本技术密集型林产品比较优势演变程度最低,以比较优势增强的趋势为主。中国劳动密集型林产品具有比较优势,资源和资本技术密集型林产品不具有比较优势,但整体林产品比较优势呈现增强趋势。因此,中国提出培育林产品比较优势;提高林产品国际竞争力;促进林产品贸易高质量发展的建议。     

中美木质林产品贸易研究

总体来看，中美木质林产品贸易额不断提高。然而，2018年后由于中美贸易摩擦及其他阻碍，两国间的木质林产品贸易发展受到较大负面影响。在贸易往来中，中国主要向美国出口木家具、纸和纸制品、木制品，进口则以纸和纸制品、木浆、锯材为主。在中美木质林产品贸易中存在着出口市场过度集中、中美经贸摩擦、技术性贸易壁垒等问题。因此，中国应多元化出口市场、推动部分产业链外迁，并建立与国际接轨的木材合法性认定制度体系，推动木质林产品产业高质量发展。     

贸易伙伴国数字新基建对中国林产品出口贸易成本的影响研究

贸易成本研究一直是新开放宏观经济学研究领域的热点,且大多数学者主要关注贸易关税壁垒、地理距离、贸易协定等传统因素的影响,很少有研究关注数字新基建发展水平对贸易成本的影响。文章从贸易国视角出发,利用中国15个林产品贸易伙伴国2003-2021年的面板数据,基于熵值法和贸易成本测度公式,分别对贸易国数字新基建发展水平和中国林产品出口贸易成本进行测度,构建固定效应模型探究两者之间的关系。研究发现：（1）在样本区间内,15个贸易伙伴国数字新基建发展水平均有大幅提升,中国林产品出口贸易成本呈现整体下降趋势。（2）数字新基建发展水平能够显著降低中国林产品出口贸易成本,且对中国四种不同林产品的出口贸易成本降低均存在显著性。（3）综合来看,相对发展中国家,发达国家的数字新基建对中国林产品出口贸易成本影响效应更显著。为实现中国林产品贸易便利化,进而推动中国林业产业高质量发展,文章提出共商共建林产品进出口数字贸易平台、严格执行林产品国际认证标准和牵头构建农林类贸易协定组织等政策启示。     

中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易波动原因分析

基于联合国贸易数据库林产品数据,应用恒定市场份额模型,探究1998—2018年造成中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易波动现象的影响因素。结果表明:1998—2018年,中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易集中于资源密集型和需求增长较快的产品,且贸易波动呈现出明显的阶段性;中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品总额波动现象受产品结构、市场规模、竞争力等多种因素影响,其中中国进口结构和国内市场需求是贸易波动的主要因素;此外,中俄林产品贸易还受到世界经济环境的影响。因此,中国应寻找其他进口渠道,减少对俄罗斯供给的依赖,保障中国木质林产品产业安全,密切关注两国经济政策变化,及时调整进口贸易策略,促进中俄木质林产品贸易的健康稳定发展。     

世界蔬菜贸易竞争力与产业内贸易分析

本文对世界蔬菜贸易及中国在世界蔬菜贸易中的地位进行了分析，并分别运用比较优势系数和产业内贸易指标，对世界主要蔬菜出口国的蔬菜产品竞争力和产业内贸易分别进行了测算和分析。本文的结论是：世界和中国的蔬菜出口贸易规模均在不断扩大，中国调理加工蔬菜、保鲜蔬菜和脱水蔬菜的国际比较优势也在不断提升，而且欧美发达国家普遍存在的蔬菜产品的产业内贸易为中国蔬菜产品出口提供了机遇。     

中国木质林产品国际竞争力的实证分析

选取15个主要木质林产品大国(地区)2003～2007年的数据,运用国际市场占有率、贸易竞争指数、显示性比较优势指数、出口增长优势指数、出口依存度、出口贡献率、净出口7个国际竞争力评价指标,采用主成分分析法对木质林产品的国际竞争力进行比较分析,得出结论:中国排在加拿大、印尼、马来西亚、俄罗斯、德国之后;中国木质林产品对外贸易规模不断增加,在世界木质林产品贸易中的地位越来越重要。同时,提出提升竞争力的对策。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

土地学科的建设和发展——"土地学科发展规划研讨会"综述

中国土地科学学科发展已取得很大成就,表现为专业教育和人才培养成绩突出、初步形成学科体系、取得大批研究成果.而存在的问题主要是基础理论研究欠缺、独特的土地科学研究方法体系尚未形成、研究角度单一、学术交流质量不高和学科带头人的影响力不足.土地科学学科发展目前面临着巨大的机遇和挑战,应明确土地科学学科发展的基本思路、发展目标及2010-2020年的主要建设任务和保障措施.     

Underpayment of Small Producers of Coffee and Cocoa in Sierra Leone

Fieldwork shows that many Sierra Leonean producers do not receive the official producer price for their coffee and cocoa, due to the concentration of buying stations, credit relations, the small quantities offered for sale, and the lack of marketing knowledge of the numerous and unorganized farmers. To the traders underpayment may seem economically justifiable to a certain extent, but to the farmers it means poverty and debt. A new village marketing centre project aims at remedying this situation and has already led to higher prices. Although no longer allowed to take their "just" share from the producers, traders are still willing to deal with the new centres.