信贷约束下的农户理论

传统的农户理论将农户作为一个生产和消费混合体来进行分析，农户在劳动力约束和技术约束下最大化其效用。假定其他市场完善的情况下，如果农户没有信贷约束，农户利用生产的收入来进行消费，而且生产行为独立于消费行为。如果面临信贷约束，二者不再独立。因此，本文首先将信贷约束引入传统农户模型，分析信贷约束下的农户经济行为。然后在一个跨期优化的理论框架下运用欧拉方程来检验农户的信贷约束状况。最后是对该领域实证研究方法的总结。     

规模化农户农业产业链组织参与对正规信贷约束的影响研究

规模化农户具有信贷需求额度较大且期限较长、市场参与度较高等特点，使其更易受正规信贷约束。然而，农业产业链组织融资可以通过降低信贷过程中的交易成本和提升农业投资积极性，为缓解农户正规信贷约束提供新视角。政府应加大对规模化农户、合作社、龙头企业等新型经营主体的扶持力度，鼓励特色农业产业链组织的建立和发展。农村金融机构应多样化发展并丰富创新金融产品，更好地促进农村地区正规金融与非正规金融部门协调发展。     

农业社会化服务对土地规模经营的影响——基于农户土地转入视角的实证分析

为了深入分析农业社会化服务对土地规模经营的影响,考察农业社会化服务能否有效缓解土地规模经营面临的约束,本文首先构建了考虑农业社会化服务要素及土地要素的农户生产模型,通过理论分析发现增加农业社会化服务要素投入,将促进农户增加土地要素投入,即农业社会化服务对土地规模经营有正向影响。其次,基于2016年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)的数据,考虑到农户购买农业社会化服务和转入土地的不同生产经营决策间存在相互影响的内生性问题,建立似不相关Biprobit联立模型,实证检验农业社会化服务对农户土地规模经营决策的影响。研究结果显示,农业社会化服务对农户土地转入决策有显著的正向影响,通过缓解农户的劳动力、技术等资源禀赋约束,农业社会化服务促进了土地规模经营的发展,因此应进一步发展农业社会化服务,以实现农业的规模化、现代化。     

信贷管制何以影响农户信贷可得性？——以林权抵押贷款制度为经验证据

为探究信贷管制的存在是否会抑制制度目标的实现,即信贷管制会影响农户的信贷可得性,文章以林权抵押贷款制度为例,检验了农村土地产权抵押贷款制度的信贷管制对农户信贷可得性的影响。在理论剖析了信贷管制对农户信贷可得性存在直接抑制效应、需求抑制效应以及价值抑制效应的基础上,运用集体林区6个重点林业县(市)林权抵押贷款政策文本与24个村465个样本农户调研数据,利用Ivprobit模型和中介效应模型分别对总效应和内在机制进行实证分析。结果表明,林权抵押贷款制度的信贷管制强度较高,且对农户信贷可得性呈现负向影响,未能缓解农户信贷约束问题。同时,内在机制检验结果发现直接抑制效应和价值抑制效应并存,但由于农户对林权抵押贷款制度不够熟悉,导致需求抑制效应未被证实。据此,文章认为应进一步完善农村土地产权流转服务体系,并在村级层面广泛宣传农村土地产权抵押贷款政策,多渠道增强农户信贷可得性。文章的研究结果不仅可为林权抵押贷款制度的具体改革提供理论依据与经验支撑,更能为提高农户收入水平、缩小收入差距及缓解贫困等"三农"问题的解决提供有益的政策参考。     

中国农村土地要素市场化改革探源

基于政府与市场关系,运用产权理论与新结构经济学理论,探讨农村土地要素市场化的政策史流变、经济学意涵和制度性创新。研究表明,第一,改革开放以来市场在土地资源配置中的作用经历了由辅助性到基础性再到决定性的历史转变,农村土地要素市场化也经历了改革探索期、改革发展期与改革深化期。第二,土地要素市场化的经济学本质是土地转让权的赋予,赋予农户充分、完整且有保障的土地转让权具有理论必要性和现实必然性。第三,未来的农村土地要素市场化改革,一方面要培育有效市场,以土地产权制度改革为主线,做好产权界定、产权配置和产权保护工作;另一方面要建设有为政府,以土地管理制度改革为依托,做好数量管控、用途管制和市场监管工作。     

数字化赋能：互联网使用对农户信贷的影响及其异质性研究——基于选择实验方法的检验和分析

“互联网+”能否赋能农村金融发展,进而缓解农户信贷约束,对激发农户发展的内生动力至关重要。本文基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014—2018年三期的面板数据,采用条件混合回归(CMP)考察互联网使用对农户信贷的影响。研究发现,总体上互联网使用能缓解农户信贷约束,使用互联网使农户获得信贷的概率和规模分别增加5.48%和31.18%。其中,互联网使用使农户获得正规信贷的概率和规模分别提高6.45%和43.22%,但对农户非正规信贷影响不显著,说明缓解农户信贷约束主要体现在正规信贷层面。进一步地,通过多维度的农户异质性分析发现,互联网使用缓解农户信贷约束在中等收入以上、有外出务工和中等经营规模以上农户群体内作用强度更大且更显著,表明互联网使用促进农户信贷上存在“精英俘获”现象,且在正规信贷和非正规信贷上具有差异。而且,在考虑样本自选择问题和变量设置偏差后,结果依然稳健。因此,发展并普及互联网对完善农村信贷市场、缓解农户信贷约束成效显著,应充分激发“互联网+”赋能农业的活力,但也要重视“非精英”农户尤其是贫困农户的共享发展问题。     

正规信贷约束对农户粮食生产的影响分析

金融支持对稳定农业生产、保障国家粮食安全意义重大。本文利用2015年四省粮食种植调查数据,采用内生转换回归模型,分析了现阶段农村地区粮食种植户受正规信贷约束的状况以及正规信贷约束对农户粮食生产的影响。结果表明,目前农村地区受正规信贷约束的农户比例约为30%,且以需求型信贷约束为主;尽管供给型信贷约束并非是制约农户贷款的主要类型,但两种信贷约束类型均会对农户粮食产出产生抑制效应;与需求型信贷约束相比,农户因受供给型信贷约束产生的生产损失更为严重;进一步地,如果农户的信贷需求能得到充分满足,粮食产出预计将提升14.6%。     

农村土地流转市场化发展的困境与出路

乡村振兴离不开现代农业的规模化生产经营,而农村土地流转市场的发展对于促进规模化经营具有至关重要的作用,因此,促进农村土地流转市场发展是乡村振兴战略实施的重要抓手。本文通过对上海市农村土地流转市场发展现状的分析,发现在政府主导推进农村土地流转时期,无论是土地流转规模、流转率抑或合同流转面积都逐年递增,流入主体日益多样化,并建立起土地流转服务仲裁体系,农村土地流转市场建设水平较高。但是随着农地流转市场的发展,政府"家长式"的管理模式抑制了劳动力要素和土地要素在全市范围内的自由流转,一定程度上阻碍了农村土地流转市场化发展。最后针对上海市农村土地流转市场化发展的困境提出以下建议:加快全市流转信息互通共享,加快政府职能转变,发展适度规模经营。     

产权抵押贷款下的农户信贷约束分析

本文基于2014年西部开展农村产权抵押贷款试点地区的581户农户数据,从农户经营类型视角切入,运用Heckman广义三阶段回归模型实证分析了不同经营类型农户的信贷需求及约束程度。分析发现,西部农村产权抵押贷款试点地区农户受信贷约束程度不太明显;农户在面临资金困难时,对正规金融机构的依赖性较强;信贷约束程度与农户经营类型呈现明显的反向关系,非农经营方式的农户由于缺乏土地抵押品导致受信贷约束的程度较大。因此,应建立合理有效的农村产权抵押贷款机制,加大对新型农业经营主体的金融支持,解决非农经营方式农户的信贷需求。     

担保品竞争：缓解林权抵押约束对农户信贷的影响

基于担保品竞争视角，本文使用国家林业和草原局发展研究中心固定观察点数据，运用多时点DID模型，考察了缓解林权抵押约束对农户信贷可得性和贷款条件的影响。研究发现：将林权纳入担保品后，总体上提升了农户信贷可得性，增加贷款规模，降低贷款利率，延长贷款期限。但在担保品竞争环境下，林权属于弱势担保品，信贷风险控制能力有限，因此缓解林权抵押约束对不同农户群体产生差异性影响，即对无信贷排斥群体有效，对信贷排斥群体无效。进一步分析表明，缓解林权抵押约束对其他资产抵押群体和保证贷款群体有效，佐证了以上结论。本文还发现，地区林木资源丰富、地方政府设立风险处置基金或林权收储机构，可以提升缓解林权抵押约束的政策效果。以上结论表明，在农村金融市场担保品多样化的现实背景下，开展各类担保制度试点和改革，需考虑和提升担保品相对竞争力。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

Underpayment of Small Producers of Coffee and Cocoa in Sierra Leone

Fieldwork shows that many Sierra Leonean producers do not receive the official producer price for their coffee and cocoa, due to the concentration of buying stations, credit relations, the small quantities offered for sale, and the lack of marketing knowledge of the numerous and unorganized farmers. To the traders underpayment may seem economically justifiable to a certain extent, but to the farmers it means poverty and debt. A new village marketing centre project aims at remedying this situation and has already led to higher prices. Although no longer allowed to take their "just" share from the producers, traders are still willing to deal with the new centres.     

Malaria incidence and agricultural efficiency in Uganda

The cost of accessing healthcare can be a major determinant of disease prevalence, which in turn has short‐ and long‐term welfare implications on poor households. In response, governments in developing countries often resort to subsidizing the cost of drugs, which, while perhaps easier to administer, may not always be the most effective way of addressing healthcare cost. In this regard, we analyze the impact of different types of household level health expenses on disease incidence and agricultural production efficiency. We use data from the 2006 Uganda National Household Survey, which covered approximately 7,400 households. The results suggest that a 10% increase in consultation, medicine, and hospitalization expenses would reduce malaria incidence respectively by 35.6%, 20.5%, and 21.3 %, which translates into a 1.1%, 0.6%, and 0.6 % decrease in agricultural inefficiency, respectively. The results indicate that helping poor households meet expenses for consultation through subsidies or eliminating consultation fees has a larger impact on malaria incidence and agricultural productivity among poor rural households than subsidizing the cost of medical drugs, the most common avenue chosen by developing country governments in the fight against the disease.