The Matching Problem (and Inventories) in Private Negotiation

This study examines laboratory market outcomes under alternative matching risk scenarios and advance production. Limited access and/or asymmetry in the number of buyers and sellers cause a matching problem. When sellers hold inventory before sale and there is buyer concentration, prices are about 23% below the competitive level and close to the predicted monopsony price. The bargaining advantage shifts to buyers in this market environment. Sellers can benefit by creating alliances or cooperatives to increase their bargaining position for price and overcome poor access to buyers.     

Inventories and Public Information in Private Negotiation: A Laboratory Market Study

Using laboratory markets, this research investigates the impacts of reporting different kinds of aggregated trade information to buyers and sellers who conduct transactions through bilateral/private negotiation. There are a limited number of bargaining rounds or matches between buyer and seller pairs. Sellers hold a perishable inventory before negotiations begin. We find that knowledge of trades, along with price, improves the coordination and bargaining position of buyers. Trade prices are lower and buyer earnings are higher, relative to the no-information treatment or when just-past quantities or just-past prices are reported. Market efficiency declines as public information is reported.     

Futures Markets and Spot Price Volatility: A Case Study

Futures markets, where they exist, can play a crucial role in determining the storage decision in the underlying spot (physical) market. The futures market acts as a conduit for market information and is a gatherer of agents' expectations about the future prospects for the spot market. As such, it is able to provide both price insurance and price discovery roles, the latter of which generates information for spot market traders and allows them to make rational storage decisions. If this were to be the case, then the efficiency of storage is improved which can potentially lead to a reduction in the volatility of spot prices over the marketing season. The existing literature is ambiguous as to whether futures markets can help spot markets price more efficiently. This paper seeks to examine whether this is the case in the British maincrop potato market by evaluating the volatility of spot prices over the period 1969–96 in a “before-after” analysis of the impact of the introduction of futures trading in 1980. The results suggest that the introduction of the futures market has led to a reduction in price volatility, despite some problems in the operation of the futures market itself.     

The Role of Index Trading in Price Formation in the Grains and Oilseeds Markets

We use both Granger‐causality and instrumental variables (IV) methods to examine the impact of index fund positions on price returns for the main US grains and oilseed futures markets. Our analysis supports earlier conclusions that Granger‐causal impacts are generally not discernible. However, market microstructure theory suggests trading impacts should be instantaneous. IV‐based tests for contemporaneous causality provide stronger evidence of price impact. We find even stronger evidence that changes in index positions can help predict future changes in aggregate commodity price indices. This result suggests that changes in index investment are in part driven by information which predicts commodity price changes over the coming months.     

我国玉米期货市场发现价格功能的实证分析

本文利用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验以及Garbade-Silber模型等方法对我国玉米期货市场的发现价格功能进行了实证分析。结果表明：我国玉米期货价格与现货价格之间存在协整关系，期货价格具有良好的发现价格功能；仅存在从期货价格到现货价格的单向格兰杰引导关系，而现货价格对期货价格不具有格兰杰引导关系；玉米期货市场的发现价格功能中期货价格起着决定性的作用。     

从保护到经营:美国湿地保护交易制度及其启示

研究目的：分析美国为保护湿地而创设的湿地交易补偿制度,为中国湿地保护具体制度设计提供参考。研究方法：文献归纳法和比较分析法。研究结果：美国湿地保护交易制度是为缓解湿地流失而设立,由开发者购买替代湿地实现对开发活动带来的湿地生态损害的补偿,交易制度刺激了替代湿地的营建,保持了美国湿地数量动态的平衡。研究结论：中国可借鉴美国经验实施对湿地的生态补偿;交易手段在中国湿地保护中有发展的空间;湿地交易可以实现对湿地的保护和合理利用;中国湿地保护从长远看应该是政府和市场的结合。     

美元汇率对中国天然橡胶现货价格影响的实证

2009年以来天然橡胶价格的大涨大落无法用天然橡胶的基本供求解释;在2009年1月至2015年5月美元指数和中国全乳胶价格的周度数据,在单位根和协整检验基础上,构建向量自回归(VAR)模型,利用脉冲响应函数和Granger因果检验对全乳胶价格与美元指数之间的关系进行分析;结果表明:美元指数与全乳胶价格之间存在负相关关系,且在Granger意义上因果单向相关,即美元指数的变化会影响全乳胶价格,但全乳胶价格的变化不会影响美元指数;该结果能较好地解释2009年至今天然橡胶价格大涨大落现象。基于研究从微观和宏观提出政府应鼓励企业加强套期保值交易、利用关税、国家收储等政策应对美元汇率对中国天然橡胶市场的影响。     

Spot water markets and risk in water supply

Water availability patterns in semiarid regions are typically extremely variable. Even in basins with a highly developed infrastructure, users are subject to unreliable water supplies, incurring substantial economic losses during periods of scarcity. More flexible instruments, such as voluntary exchanges of water among users, can help users to reduce risk exposure. This article looks at the effects of spot water markets on the economic risk caused by water availability variations. Our theoretical and empirical risk analyses are based on the random profits of water users. Profit probability density functions are formally and graphically characterized for both water sellers and buyers under several possible market outcomes. We conclude from this analysis that, where water supply is stochastic, water markets unambiguously reduce both parties' risk exposure. The empirical study is conducted on an irrigation district in the Guadalquivir Valley (Southern Spain), where there is a high probability of periods of extreme water scarcity. Water demand functions for the district representative irrigators and a spatial equilibrium model are used to simulate market exchanges and equilibrium. This programming model is combined with statistical simulation techniques. We show that the profit probability distribution of a representative irrigator is modified if water exchanges are authorized, leading to risk reductions. Results also indicate that if the market were extended to several districts and users that are subject to varying hydrological risk exposure, extremely low‐profit events would be less likely to occur. In sum, we show that exchanging water in annual spot markets can reduce farmers' economic vulnerability caused by water supply variability across irrigation seasons. These results support the water policy reform carried out in Spain in 1999 to allow for voluntary water exchanges among right holders.     

新一轮农业谈判中的特殊保障机制问题及我国的立场

文章对WTO农业特殊保障机制(SSG)的主要内容、实施程序及各成员的使用状况、特点作了分析,并在阐述SSG之所以主要成为发达成员限制发展中成员农产品进入其国内市场工具的原因基础上,从使用资格、产品范围、触发机制、透明性和实施程序几个方面,对新一轮农业谈判中新的农产品特殊保障机制(SSM)可能的方案及中国在谈判中应持的立场进行了探讨。     

国外地价与房价关系及其启示

研究目的:介绍美国、英国、瑞典、韩国、日本以及新加坡等国家地价与房价的关系.研究方法:比较分析法.研究结果:国外地价与房价的关系可分成4类:一是地价低房价也低的国家(瑞典),二是地价低房价不低的国家(美国),三是地价高房价不高的国家(新加坡与英国),四是地价高房价也高的国家(韩国与日本).研究结论:中国应根据人多地少的基本国情,借鉴国外有关经验,协调好地价与房价的关系,促进房地产业的健康发展.     

Measurement and Testing for Equality of Foreign Price and Consumer Price Index Transmission in Russia

This paper tests for segmentation of retail meat markets in Russia before and after the financial crisis of 1998. Using monthly prices of pork and beef in 80 regions of Russia from 1994 to 1999, we measure the short-run response of regional prices to changes in foreign prices and domestic inflation. We find that changes in both foreign prices and domestic inflation have distinct impacts on the prices of these commodities in different Russian cities, indicating that the markets are segmented in the short run. An analysis of the effect of the financial crisis shows that the response to the crisis was mixed, with some regions showing more evidence of segmentation than others.     

房价与地价的因果关系研究—— 基于重庆的实证检验

研究目的：总结2015年国内外土地科学研究的重点进展,展望2016年中国土地科学的发展趋势以及《中国土地科学》重点关注方向。研究方法：文献调研法。研究结果：（1）2015年国内外土地科学研究共同关注土地市场与土地制度、土地管理、土地权属、土地政策与法律、土地资源保护、土地生态保护、土地利用/覆被变化,以及现代测量技术、土地信息技术和土地整治工程等方面的重点进展研究。（2）2015年国内外土地科学研究侧重点有所不同,国内研究更多关注土地市场结构、土地财政与税收、自然资源资产管理、用途管制、土地督察、规划体制改革、现代测量技术等方面问题;国外研究则侧重在土地产权边界、土地制度演化、土地利用冲突、土地管理方式及机构设置、土地利用规划政策属性与规划原则、土地测量方法优化与对比、土地信息获取技术优化等。研究结论：2015年土地科学问题研究在实践推动下,研究面有所拓宽,学科体系研究得到加强,2016年《中国土地科学》将重点关注土地科学学科体系与基础理论、土地经济关系与市场机制、土地制度改革与管理体制、土地政策体系与法律制度、国土空间规划与生态保护、土地工程与技术创新等方面的研究。     

农村环境产权重构及其交易初探

环境产权的“共有性”是导致农村环境问题的根本原因。目前,在我国农村地区还不具备应用“庇古手段”解决环境问题的基本条件。从制度上重构农村环境产权,引入市场交易机制,是解决农村环境问题的有效途径。文章探讨了以农户和村集体为主要权利的产权重构模式,以及农村环境产权的市场化配置,并结合安全,阐明了产权交易的发生机制。     

Price Cycles and Asymmetric Price Transmission in the U.S. Pork Market

Economists have proposed several plausible explanations for observed price transmission asymmetries in commodity markets. Unfortunately, the econometric methods commonly used in such studies cannot empirically distinguish pricing behavior under the competing theories. We argue that the theories may be classified by firm responses to high- and low-frequency price cycles and use Engle's band spectrum regression to test the symmetry of high- and low-frequency cycles in weekly pork prices. The findings indicate that changes in wholesale prices are asymmetrically transmitted to retail prices in relatively low-frequency cycles, which does not support search costs and other high-frequency explanations. Conversely, wholesale pork prices asymmetrically adjust to changes in farm prices at all frequencies.     

Information Exchange and Distributional Implications of Price Discrimination with Internet Marketing in Agriculture

A price discrimination model is proposed to explain why firms provide extraneous information on Internet sites selling agricultural inputs. Whether an informative site is offered depends on price discrimination potential, which depends on how much farmers reveal heterogeneity by Internet behavior. Price discrimination is greater if information benefits are negatively correlated with farm size (or other characteristics), explaining why extraneous (not product-related) information is offered on Internet sales sites. Price discrimination adversely affects some farmers but may be beneficial on average because it generates free information. Outcomes depend on whether Internet users are aware of price differentials on the basis of clickstream information.     

Compatibility of Government Guarantees with Flexibility in Canadian Wheat Price Pooling

Financial option theory is used to evaluate Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) price pooling and associated government guarantees. Price guarantees and final payments on the pool can be viewed as special financial derivative products. Financial models are used to evaluate alternative pricing flexibility alternatives within the constraints of the CWB price pooling system and at the same time to provide a measure of the CWB dollars at risk associated with offering these contracts. Flexible pricing alternatives are incompatible with a government price guarantee that is valuable. The CWB dollar risk associated with flexible pricing could be substantial.
Les auteurs recourent à la théorie des contrats d'option pour évaluer le système de fixation de prix communs par la Commission canadienne du blé (CCB) et les garanties connexes du gouvemement. On peut considérer les prix garantis et les paiements finals du pool comme un type particulier de produits dérivés. Des modéles financiers permettent d'évaluer d'autres méthodes qui autoriseraient la fluctuation des prix dans les contraintes du systéme de pool de la CCB, mais serviraient aussi à mesurer les risques financiers de la CCB associés à la proposition de contrats. Les autres méthodes de fixation des prix sont incompatibles avec une garantie valable du gouvemement au niveau des prix. La CCB courrait le risque de penes importantes si elle adoptait une politique de variation des prix.     

对民间资本投资农业的评析与思考

在国家财政、外商资本投资农业呈下降趋势的背景下 ,农业企业化所需的大量资金的来源最有可能是民间资本 ,包括民营农业企业和民营非农业企业的产业投资 ,以及民间资本通过证券市场投资农业等。本文分析认为 ,尽管 2 0 0 2年以来 ,民间资本已从始于 2 0 0 0年的农业投资短暂低迷中走出 ,呈现增长态势 ,但由于民营企业主体是中小企业 ,而中小企业创业和发展还面临诸多困难 ,加之农业类上市公司以国有企业为主 ,这些现实条件都阻碍着民间资本进入农业。因而 ,政策着力点是优化环境 ,让民营企业能够健康发育和成长起来。