Marginal economic impacts of inbound tourism to Taiwan and policy evaluation†

This paper presents the economic impact estimation for international visitors to Taiwan using an Input–Output Model to demonstrate the differences of economic contribution by market segments. Economic impacts are compared based on visitor segments by country of residence and travel purpose. The results indicated that high spenders contributed two to three times more expenses in Taiwan than low spenders. In 2000–2001, excluding airfares, business visitors from North America (US$1,360), Japanese sightseers (US$1,323) and Singapore/Malaysia sightseers (US$1098) were the top three segments in terms of per person per trip expenditure, whereas tourists from Korea with a purpose of visiting friends and relatives spent approximately US$314 per party per trip. Type I multipliers on sales, personal income and value added were similar across all visitor segments. Type I jobs to sales multiplier, however, had stronger variation by segments, depending on the relative composition of different items/services that visitors consumed during the trip. Policy implications are proposed for the Taiwan national tourism policy, “Doubling Tourist Arrivals Plan”, which aimed to increase inbound tourism from 2.7 million person visits in 2002 to 5 million person visits by 2008. It is suggested that multiple indicators, such as length of stay, segment shares, and daily spending by individual visitor segments, should be concurrently incorporated in the policy formulation and evaluation process. Relying on one measurement objective, such as 5 million yearly visits, is inadequate in determining the overall achievement and efficiency of tourism policies.     

Micro-mobility patterns and service blueprints as foundations for visitor management planning

This paper proposes the use of micro-mobility patterns and service blueprints in visitor management planning. It argues that such planning approaches can improve management outcomes as well as visitor experiences whilst adding efficiency to the relevant management processes. The paper is based on the findings of visitor research on visitor flows and perceptions of visitor management in a nature-based tourism attraction in Wellington, New Zealand. These findings are used to adapt a service blueprint for the overall attraction to separately reflect visitor experiences of international visitors and New Zealanders. The paper posits that it is thus possible to identify and subsequently address the visitor management requirements of different visitor groups. Implications are discussed at three levels; first, for the case study attraction; second, for tourism attractions more broadly; third, conceptual implications for visitor management research are considered. Specific findings include the differences in micro-mobilities found across different market sectors, the need to improve signposting to offer distance and time guidance, the importance of topography, the potential to spread usage pressures across sites and the future potential to use mobile GPS units to obtain more detailed information.     

Sustaining the Physical and Social Dimensions of Wilderness Tourism: The Perceptual Approach to Wilderness Management in New Zealand

The dynamics of the tourism industry are well illustrated by the case of New Zealand's tourism development over the last decade. The number of international tourists visiting New Zealand has doubled in the last ten years to approximately 1.5 million annual visitors. Associated with this growth has been a significant shift in patterns of tourist demand. No longer do most tourists simply comply with established tourist routes linking the high profile scenic attractions. Rather tourists have demonstrated a preference for more independent and dispersed patterns of travel, including an increase in demand for settings that offer subjective qualities of wilderness experience. This poses a complex but intriguing management challenge. If wilderness recreation involves pristine natural settings in the complete absence of facility development and visitor management, then these resources are more prone to degradation so than any other natural tourism resources. This paper suggests that an understanding of tourist perceptions of wilderness is crucial to the management of wilderness tourism, and considers the application of the perceptual approach to wilderness tourism as a means of sustaining wilderness values while promoting the satisfaction of visitor expectations.     

Analysing International Tourist Flows to Estimate Energy Use Associated with Air Travel

Tourism is a major global industry and air travel is an increasingly vital component of international tourism. This paper examines the neglected relationship between tourism and aviation with regard to global environmental impacts, including energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Based on visitor arrival data collected by Statistics New Zealand, it estimates a total energy use of 27.8 PJ resulting from international passenger air travel to New Zealand, which would increase national energy use by 6% if international air travel were included in national inventories. This energy use translates into additional carbon dioxide emissions of 1.9 million tonnes. These estimates are discussed in terms of a tourist's 'energy bill', national and international climate change policies, and with regard to the concept of sustainable tourism development.     

Forecasting tourism demand with ARMA-based methods

The forecast of tourism volume in the form of arrivals is of special importance for tourism and other hospitality industries because it is an indicator of future demand, thereby providing basic information for subsequent planning and policy making. In this paper, three univariate ARMA-based models are applied to tourism demand, as represented by the number of world-wide visitors to Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Australia and New Zealand. The study employs both monthly and quarterly time series generated from nine principal tourist destinations in Asian-Pacific region in the forecasting exercise to ensure the reliability of the forecasting evaluation. Forecasting performance based on disaggregated arrival series in a particular destination is examined as well. The general impression is that the ARMA-based models perform very well and in some cases the magnitude of mean absolute percentage error is lower than 2% level.     

Visitation of tourism attractions and tourist expenditure patterns ‐ repeat versus first‐time visitors

Marketing wisdom suggests that it is less expensive to reattract previous customers than to acquire new ones. Yet, few tourism destinations are actively trying to understand their current visitors in order to more effectively market to them. The present study analyzes international repeat and first‐time visitors to Rotorua, New Zealand, in order to gain insights into their respective visitation patterns of tourist attractions in the area, as well as their trip and expenditure patterns. The results of this study indicate that there are significant differences with regards to trip characteristics, and it offers a few insightful differences with respect to the attractions frequented.     

The Impact of Sports Events on Inbound Tourism in New Zealand

Sports events are an instrument of destination marketing for host countries. Over the past 40 years, New Zealand has held sports events such as the Commonwealth Games and the America's Cup and many international tourists have visited New Zealand during these events. While past studies have examined the economic value of such tourism at a generic level, the impact of mega sports events at more specific levels is unknown. Thus, this study examines not only the impact of eight mega sports events upon New Zealand's international tourist arrivals over the 1983–2005 period at the overall level, but also the number of tourist arrivals from participating countries for each event. Results suggest that the 1990 Commonwealth Games, the 2000 America's Cup (yachting) and the 2005 British and Irish Lions Tour (rugby) had a significant impact on tourist arrivals overall and on arrivals from each participating country.     

Tourism life cycle and sustainability analysis: Profit-focused strategies for mature destinations

Tourist destinations tend to follow similar development patterns. Eventually, all destinations enter the market maturity stage leading to a decline in visitors. To prevent visitor decline, tourism managers and policy makers try to reposition their destinations appealing to more tourist segments. A multi-segment strategy is expensive and may create a fuzzy destination image, further accelerating the decline. An alternative strategy extends Zeithaml, Rust, and Lemon’s (2001) customer pyramid theory. This paper applies customer pyramid theory to Turkey’s tourism industry. Precise targeting of the most loyal visitors (Platinum tourists) creates a less costly and more focused marketing strategy leading to a sustainable tourism industry. Loyal Platinum tourists tend to be less price sensitive than other visitors. The discussion includes strategies to convert Gold and Iron category tourists to Platinum providing additional growth opportunities.     

Chinese and international visitor perceptions of interpretation at Beijing built heritage sites

Research exploring visitor perceptions of heritage sites indicates that a site may hold different meanings for visitors depending on their cultural backgrounds. Little research has, however, identified visitor cultural preferences and so informed the development, delivery and management of on-site heritage interpretive experiences. This paper addresses this need by identifying cultural differences and similarities between Chinese and international visitors in relation to their interpretive motives, preferences and perceptions. Questionnaires were completed by 277 domestic Chinese visitors and 94 international visitors at five key Beijing built heritage sites. Differences between Chinese and international visitors’ conceptions of heritage; ratings of importance of facilities, services and interpretive content; and perceptions of the visitor experience are identified. Amongst many findings, Chinese respondents were more likely than international respondents to state that heritage sites should be an important part of the country's national heritage, convey the country's power and be famous. They sought built heritage sites visited by someone famous and that feature in well-known Chinese paintings and poetry. International visitors were more likely than Chinese visitors to state that heritage sites should have authentically old buildings and be relevant to contemporary life. Implications for interpretive and management practice at Chinese heritage sites are discussed.     

Forecasting tourism revisited

This article examines the accuracy and efficiency of forecasting techniques by applying time series regression to forecasting visitor arrivals. Past studies have shown that simpler time series techniques perform as well or better than complex forecasting models. An assessment of visitor forecasts developed at regional, destination and individual market levels suggests that time series regression performs well in producing annual forecasts of visitors which can also serve as a baseline for evaluating the net returns from applying more complex techniques. Tourism managers should appreciate the usefulness of simpler formal methods in developing forecasts of visitors.     

Tourism in PR China: Market trends and changing policies

This article analyses market trends in visitor arrivals for PR China, and the effects of recent policy changes upon the country's future tourism growth. Trends covering 1978–1984 reveal that growth in foreign visitor numbers is levelling off. Slower growth is also being accompanied by shorter length of stays which offsets increases in visitor volume. Recent policy changes encourage maximum growth in arrivals. To achieve increased volume, PR China must compete for the mass tourist market. This may put PR China in the position of having expensive modern facilities to attract lower spending visitors.     

旅游者中位年龄的几个市场指示意义

年龄是旅游市场细分理论中一个重要的社会—人口学变量,不同的年龄结构对细分市场的旅游行为有着重要的影响。然而,在刻画旅游者年龄结构时,无论是在业界实践还是学界研究中,被普遍采用但标准各异的旅游者年龄"上中下"分组模式却不可避免地制约了相关研究成果之间纵向或横向的比较与验证,需要发展一条可以沟通联系的纽带。文章试图将中位年龄作为这种可能的纽带引入我国旅游市场研究领域,基于国家旅游局公开发布的旅游者年龄统计数据,提出了旅游市场类型的中位年龄划分标准,并在此基础上进一步探讨了旅游者中位年龄在指示市场结构类型、市场环境波动和市场发展分化方面的后效价值,以期为旅游市场营销与管理提供一定的理论依据。     

Mainland Chinese Tourists to Hawaii: Their Characteristics and Preferences

Tourism is the most economically important industry to the United States' only island state, Hawaii. With Hawaii's highest spending and largest international tourist segment, Japanese, decreasing significantly (a loss from over 2,000,000 in 1997 to just over 1,000,000 Japanese visitors in 2009), Hawaii needs to prepare to replace the significant decrease of Japanese visitors with a new visitor market. The logical new international visitor target market would be tourists from the fastest growing economy in the world, that being China. The purpose of this study is to explore the differences in attitudinal and behavioral characteristics, and preferences of Chinese tourists in Hawaii according to key sociodemographic variables. The results of this study conclude that sociodemographic variables show significant differences in attitudinal and behavioral characteristics. For example, when comparing the number of times a respondent had visited Hawaii, first-time visitors showed the highest level of preference for a deluxe hotel while second-time visitors showed the highest level of preference for a budget hotel. Those who had visited Hawaii three or more times indicated the highest preference for a first class hotel and also to be more interested in high-end shopping. First-time visitors showed the highest percentage in the lowest category of estimated cost of gifts (US$0–US$300). This indicates that Hawaii tour operators should focus on introducing more discounted shopping to first-time visitors.

The results of this study are likely to be beneficial for understanding Chinese tourists and establishing marketing policies to enhance their satisfaction and raise their intention to revisit Hawaii. The findings of this study could be helpful for all stakeholders including local tour operators, the hotels, and Hawaii's tourism officials.     

Visitor Attitudes to Stonehenge: International Icon or National Disgrace?

Stonehenge is the UK's major prehistoric tourism attraction, with almost 1 million annual visitors, one of the top 10 UK visitor attractions since the early 1990s and an international icon used in tourism marketing. However, Stonehenge is controversial; major issues are access, authenticity and interpretation, with the actual visitor experience being criticised and termed ‘a national disgrace’ by British Members of Parliament (MPs). This paper reports on research conducted at Stonehenge in late summer and early autumn 2004. This involved a questionnaire survey that asked about motivations, visitor impacts and satisfaction levels. Results reveal educational factors to be major motivators and that Stonehenge is a World Heritage Site was also an important motivation. The results reveal a variety of views, and a more complex picture than is apparent from much rhetoric concerning Stonehenge as a visitor attraction. Overseas visitors were more positive in their reaction than British visitors, first time visitors more satisfied than repeat visitors and female visitors somewhat more positive in their reaction than men. In terms of their experience, and largely contradicting the UK Government committee claims, the majority of visitors indicated that Stonehenge has good interpretation, a fair entrance charge, provides good value for money and, overall, is an enjoyable experience.     

基于Agent的景区游客行为仿真建模与应用——以颐和园为例

我国旅游景区内部客流管理一直以来都没有得到应有的重视。通过对颐和园景区"五一"小长假和"十一"黄金周客流持续2年的实际观测,采用基于Agent的仿真建模方法,构建了游客到达、游客移动、游客停留等景区游客基本行为模型及其仿真运行环境——基于Agent的景区游客行为仿真系统。系统的正确性验证表明,仿真系统的输出数据能够反映景区各停留点游客数量的真实情况;系统的灵敏性验证表明,入口游客数、游客在景点的停留时间以及流向景点方向的客流量3个参数能够引起仿真系统各景点游客数量的灵敏变化。所建系统能够预测景区客流的时空分布,能够通过变换仿真参数值进行各种客流调控措施的仿真实验,并给出具体调控参数以支持景区管理者的客流管理实践。     

Ecotourism Visitor Experiences in Aotearoa/New Zealand: Challenging the Environmental Values of Visitors in Pursuit of Pro-environmental Behaviour

This paper reports on a research project that examined ecotourism visitor experiences in Aotearoa/New Zealand and whether or not those experiences challenged visitors to consider environmental issues. Twelve study sites in three nationwide geographical clusters were drawn from a comprehensive database of 479 eco/nature tourism operations based on each operation fulfilling 14 selection criteria. The operations offer maximum variation in the ecotourism experiences that they provide. The qualitative research methods implemented at these sites are described. Observational and interview data were employed to critically assess the visitor experiences reported at the study sites. Five important aspects of the visitor experience emerged from data analysis. These were considered to be effective in drawing visitor attention to environmental issues of relevance. The results indicate that ecotourism visitor experiences may be an effective medium via which environmental values may be influenced.     

Valuing Consumer Surplus for the Beach Resources at Ko Chang National Marine Park in Thailand

This paper presents recreation trip demand models from three beaches administrated by the Ko Chang National Marine Park in Thailand. In specific, we apply Poisson (POI) and negative binomial (NB) count data models to estimate consumer surplus (CS) attributed to tourism development. An onsite stratified random sample of 409 beach visitors was administrated along the shorelines of the marine park. The results show that the estimated CS of a Thai visitor is $244 per trip and $256 per trip, respectively, under POI and NB models. In contrast, the CS per trip of a foreign visitor is double that of the Thai visitor's. As all the potential beach visitors’ CS counted, it suggests that the beaches along the Ko Chang's coastline are highly valuable public resources. As a result, several important policy-making comments regarding the coastal park management are addressed.     

Benefits received by visitors to heritage sites: a case study of Warkworth Castle

Heritage sites attract many visitors each year. However, the revenue collected in entrance charges does not represent the total benefit provided by heritage sites. Some visitors value their visit more than the entrance charge; some decline to enter at the price but are willing to pay something to enter; other people derive utility from the contribution of heritage buildings to the landscape; whilst others benefit from the knowledge that the heritage sites are being preserved for future generations. For one heritage site, Warkworth Castle in Northumbria, benefits received by those entering the castle were estimated to be more than twice the financial revenue derived from entrance charges. This would suggest funding for heritage sites should not be determined by visitor numbers alone. However, as benefits derived in terms of recreational enjoyment and educational value from the site were estimated to be larger than their non-use benefits or preservation value, this suggests that access to such sites is an important determinant of heritage value.     

Reducing visitor car use in a protected area: a market segmentation approach to achieving behaviour change

This research uses a market segmentation approach to reducing transport-related environmental burdens from visitors, while maintaining economic benefit. The approach was tested in the Lake District National Park (UK). It aimed first to explore visitor transport behaviour using a social psychological framework, to understand what might best predict desired behaviour change (i.e. reduced visitor car use). Second, it developed and tested different types of marketing messages to reduce car use, based on persuasive communication theory, establishing marketing propositions appropriate to different visitor types and market segments. Third, it identified market segments with both a high propensity towards positive behavioural change and the highest economic contribution to the destination. The work is based on Ajzen's Theory of Planned Behaviour and on persuasive communication. Three hundred and ninety completed questionnaires were obtained. The paper emphasises the importance of context in successful communication to influence behaviour and shows that a market segmentation approach to behavioural change can be successful. Complex patterns of visitor mobility and modal choice emerge. For example “New Explorers” and “Familiar Families” are most likely to reduce their car use (45% and 48% respectively) and less likely to perceive this as difficult.     

Segmentation by visitor motivation in three Kenyan national reserves

This study addresses the needs of three national reserves in north central Kenya for developing a tourism strategy aimed at enhancing tourist opportunities at the reserves. In order to adequately address visitor needs, the reserve managers must first understand the motivations for different types of visitors. A factor-cluster approach was employed to identify visitor segment profiles based on their motivations for visiting the reserves. A principal components analysis of motivations revealed eight motivation factors, and three distinct visitor segments were identified using an ipsative clustering method. These segments included Escapists, Learners and Spiritualists. Understanding the differences in these visitor segments will help managers of the reserves better provide alternative activities and services to tourists. Management recommendations include providing scenic and expansive landscape viewing opportunities and developing a more competent and knowledgeable ranger corps capable of visitor education and outreach initiatives.