Spatial–temporal changes in grain input–output and the driving mechanism in China since 1985

Based on Chinese county-level statistic data, this paper reveals spatial–temporal distribution and changing of grain production, by studying gravity centres of grain input–output regions in China from 1985 to 2009. According to the grain output, per-capita grain consumption, and population, the surplus grain of 2864 counties from 1985 to 2009 was calculated. And the counties with surplus grain value greater than zero and smaller than zero were respectively defined as grain input regions and grain output regions; they were respectively analysed by using the model of grain gravity centre. We found that there are four periods of spatial–temporal changing of gravity centres in grain input regions, and five periods in all output regions. According to the moving path of the gravity centres of input–output regions, 1990 was the turning point of completely entering into ‘grain supply from north to south period’. Spatial–temporal changing of grain-sown area and the arable land was the main driving mechanism for the shift in grain input–output gravity centres. The change of spatial pattern of grain production influenced sustainability of grain production from three impacts. And two policy suggestions are put forward to promote the sustainability of grain production.

HIGHLIGHTS

Use the method of gravity centres to research the spatial–temporal changing of surplus grain from 1985 to 2009 in China.

Analyse the spatial–temporal changing and the driving mechanism of gravity centres of grain input–output from 1985 to 2009 in China.

1990 was identified as the turning point of completely entering into ‘grain supply from north to south period’.

Summarize the impact of the changes of spatial pattern of grain production on the sustainability of grain production and put forward two proposals.     

John H. Dunning (1927–2009)

Abstract

The evolution of institutional arrangements in Chinese agriculture is looked at through the twin concepts of necessity and purpose. Nested agency relations are examined from the state planning apparatus down through levels of village officials and individual households. The emerging diversity of institutional arrangements must be understood as logical outcomes of the pragmatic evaluation of material and institutional conditions in the Chinese countryside. This diversity shows up in the domain of property regimes in land, and in the organization of production on the land.     

Carbon dioxide emissions from wood fuels in Sweden 1980–2100

It is often assumed that wood fuels are carbon neutral. This is approximately true in the very long run since the emissions from burning wood fuels are compensated by the uptake from new trees. But it is not true in the short- and the medium term due to a number of factors. This problem is analyzed in detail in this paper, where the net carbon (dioxide) effect of using wood residues in Sweden 1980–2100 is calculated. Two important implications of the program for using wood fuels are considered: (i) the decrease of carbon stored in logging residues due to a faster transformation to carbon dioxide and (ii) delayed growth of new forest generations when logging residues are removed from the forest and used as fuel. The effects of both these factors are calculated (and projected) for the period 1980–2100. The main result is that wood fuels (in the form of wood residues) emits about 60% of the carbon dioxide that would have been emitted if the corresponding amount of energy would, have been produced by oil. One policy implication of this is that emissions from wood fuels should not, as is now the practice, be ignored and by definition equaled to zero, in national and international statistics of green house gas emissions.     

Assessment of social–ecological transitions in a peri-urban Ethiopian farming community

In a peri-urban poverty-stricken community in the outskirts of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 15 years of development efforts were undertaken by establishing an enterprise, which initially consisted of a horticultural farm and finally was composed of a multifunctional farm and a restaurant with a shop. The enterprise collaborated with BioEconomy Africa, which was charged with administrative, monitoring and facilitation tasks, and provided a training, demonstration and research facility. In the innovation process, the enterprise selected technologies and implemented them within the context of local economic and market conditions. The project benefitted from a flexible allocation of modest funds. This paper assesses the sustainability of the enterprise and the community on the basis of social–ecological system transformability and resilience. The scheme of the Food and Agriculture Organization is used to evaluate the transformability, while resilience is evaluated through self-organization capacity, disturbance absorption capacity, and learning and adaptability. The project period was divided into five Macro-phases. The transformability assessment of the enterprise revealed nonlinear and asynchronous dynamics of environmental sustainability, economic resilience, social well-being and governance that after reaching a minimum attained a maximum at the end of the period under observation. The resilience assessments showed that the self-organization capacity, the disturbance absorption capacity, and learning and adaptability slowly changed to reach a satisfactory level at the end of the observation period. The changes in transformability and resilience profoundly affected the livelihood of the community. The paper demonstrates the important role of agricultural in the development of poverty-stricken peri-urban communities and indicates that innovation processes and the efficiency of facilitation extension model implementation can be enhanced by applying adaptive project execution procedures. It can be concluded that the continuous monitoring and assessments of transformability and resilience are a prerequisite for efficiently moving the socio-ecological system on a smooth road towards a socially acceptable standard of living.     

Blackleg or blackmail? Economics of the Canada–China canola trade dispute

The Chinese government's recent decision to suspend the export licenses of two Canadian grain firms has garnered international attention. The dispute has been portrayed by some as a diplomatic dispute between two countries, and by others as a concern about plant health. We analyze the economics of the dispute, including a simple economic model of international trade in which a large-country importer imposes a targeted import ban on one large-country exporter. The model provides a framework for understanding the economic effects of a trade ban under various market conditions. We also discuss the legal framework and dispute settlement process that would be encountered if the disagreement proceeds to a formal dispute in the World Trade Organization.     

China's Competitive Threat to Latin America: An Analysis for 1990–2002

This paper explores China's competitive threat to Latin America in trade in manufactured goods. The direct threat to exports to third country markets appears small: Latin America and the Caribbean's (LAC's) trade structure is largely complementary to that of China. In bilateral trade, several LAC countries are increasing primary and resource-based exports to China. However, the pattern of trade, with LAC specializing increasingly in resource-based products and China in manufactured goods, seems worrying. Given cumulative capability building, China's success in increasingly technology-based products with strong learning externalities can place it on a higher growth path than specialization in “simpler” goods, as in LAC. China may thus affect LAC's technological upgrading in exports and industrial production. The issue is not so much current competition as the “spaces” open for LAC in the emerging technology-based world.     

A comparative analysis of rice–wheat systems in Indian Haryana and Pakistan Punjab

Intensive irrigated rice–wheat production systems have converted the north-west Indo-Gangetic Plains into South Asia's cereal basket. Their strategic importance is undermined by a slowdown in productivity growth linked to the degradation of soil and water resources. Findings from farm surveys are used to examine contrasts and similarities between rice and wheat farms, cultivation practices, productivity, and profitability in the rice–wheat belt of India's Haryana State and Pakistan's Punjab province. In Haryana average wheat and paddy yields are markedly higher, but the yield advantage is offset by higher total production costs, resulting in lower private returns. The diverging institutional environment including varying levels of intervention in produce and input markets contributed to the evolution of the Pakistani production model as relatively ‘medium input–medium output’ and the Indian production model as ‘high input–high output’. The study reiterates the need to reinvigorate productivity growth and to reduce production costs in these intensive cereal production systems while conserving natural resources such as water and limiting negative environmental impacts. The study however also raises questions about the future of current rice–wheat systems.     

Water–milk nexus in India: a path to a sustainable water future?

This paper examines the nexus between milk production and water use in India. The nexus is examined in the context of extended consumptive water use (CWU) of milk production beyond drinking water. It includes the real CWU (evapotranspiration (ETa) that occurs during the production of green fodder and feed grains) and the virtual CWU (ETa embedded in by-products for animal feed). The real CWU appears as large as that of sugarcane, and the real and virtual CWU combined is as large as that of rice. However, milk production generates more value than the outputs of rice and sugarcane combined. Sustainable water use and agricultural growth in major milk-producing areas require a drastic reduction in groundwater CWU, which, at present, exceeds natural recharge. It is suggested that diversifying to a mix of milk and high-value (but low water consuming) crops can reduce groundwater CWU while ensuring higher total output.     

Water use and salinity in the Murray–Darling Basin: A state-contingent model*

The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. The object of the present paper is to show how the linear and non-linear programming models commonly used in modelling problems such as those arising in the Murray–Darling Basin may be adapted to incorporate a state-contingent representation of uncertainty. Estimates showing the potential value of improved water use are also derived.     

Modelling pesticide risk: A marginal cost–benefit analysis of an environmental buffer-zone programme

A newly developed indicator of the pesticide risk for aquatic biocenosis in surface water bodies is applied within an economic sector model, and is used to evaluate alternative designs for an environmental policy programme. For rural districts (‘Landkreise’) across Germany, different widths of riparian buffer zones adjacent to surface water bodies are evaluated in terms of efficient cost/risk ratios.     

Agriculture–nutrition linkages with heterogeneous,unobserved returns and costs: Insights from Tajikistan

Agriculture–nutrition linkages (ANLs) have been increasingly investigated in the literature. However, nutritional returns and costs of household agricultural production practices (APPs) in semisubsistence settings are poorly understood. We fill these knowledge gaps using pooled cross-section data sets in Tajikistan, where semisubsistence farming and undernutrition coexist despite relatively good agricultural infrastructure and education systems. Agricultural diversification, yield enhancement, production expansion are positively associated with various nutritional outcomes, particularly in areas with poor food market access. Decomposition exercises suggest that nutritional returns and costs of these APPs vary across households, and the adoption of APPs is driven by the expected nutritional returns. In Tajikistan, improving nutrition through household ANLs requires growing the smallholder agricultural sector in multiple dimensions, including diversification, intensification, and expansion, while also understanding better the pathways of ANLs and addressing bottlenecks at appropriate stages of such pathways.     

An institutional and policy framework to foster integrated rice–duck farming in Asian developing countries

Asia has accounted for the vast majority of the world's rice and meat-duck production. In the integrated rice–duck farming (IRDF) system, ducklings are released into rice paddies in order to maximize the use of renewable resources in a closed-cycle flow of nutrients during rice vegetation periods. Rice–duck farming used to be widely adopted in tropical and subtropical eastern Asian countries, but has remained unpopular in the wake of prevailing agricultural productivism characterized by specialization, intensification, mechanization and excessive dependence on agrochemicals. This paper sets out institutional pathways that can redevelop IRDF in Asia. These include organic food certification systems, organic farmers' cooperatives, community-wide organic farming, localized technical extension and educational services, and between-farm rice–duck integration. A comprehensive package of these institutional tools would further expedite the expansion of IRDF particularly in low-income Southeast Asia where the rice or duck farming landscape is overwhelmingly dominated by smallholders.     

African Perspectives on China–Africa: Modelling Popular Perceptions and their Economic and Political Determinants

China's recent political and economic inroads into Africa have generated much interest in the current literature, with scholars and policymakers endeavouring to assess the merits and risks implicit in this renewed engagement. Absent from the literature, however, are systematic analyses of African perceptions of these rapidly growing China–Africa links, and what determines these perceptions. This article fills this void by examining not only African attitudes towards China's African presence, but also investigating the considerations that inform these views. Using multi-level modelling techniques, this article estimates the effects of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI), Sino-African trade and notions of democracy and human rights on African attitudes towards “China-in-Africa”. The results suggest that Africans' views of China are nearly equivalent to those that they hold vis-à-vis Western countries. The perceived impact of imports from China has a negative effect. However, this effect is counter-balanced by perceptions of China's impact on poverty alleviation—in line with its greater focus on economic, social and cultural, as opposed to civic and political human rights—in particular through FDI. Among those who value civic and political human rights, in contrast, attitudes towards China are less favourable. This finding is echoed with respect to democratic governance, though the effect is less stable. The results are derived from Afrobarometer data covering 20 African countries.     

Did China Hurt the Textiles and Clothing Exports of Other Asian Economies, 1990–2005?

Employing a gravity model, this article examines the impact of the rise of China's textile and clothing (T&C) sector on the exports of its Asian counterparts. It was established that China's textile exports posed a greater competitive threat than its clothing exports to the T&C exports of other Asian economies. It was also found that higher-income Asian economies fared better than their lower-income counterparts. This is because the higher-income Asian economies tended to be specialized in segments of the T&C sector less exposed to Chinese competition.     

Producer–Consumer Misalignment as a Possible Cause for New Food Failure: Empirical Evidence From Chile

Literature on new food products development agrees on the importance of gaining knowledge about consumer tastes and preferences as a way to increase new product success. However, the failure rate of new food introductions continues to be high. In economies with a highly developed retail system, retailers and other market players create an information and communication barrier between the producer and the consumer. Consequently, the development of new products becomes difficult in such conditions, since misalignments between producers and consumers are more likely to occur. To investigate the issue, we interviewed producers of Chilean companies in the blueberry, plum, and wine industries and concluded that their product design was based on assumptions about consumers’ preferences and on the observed market response to competitors’ products. To test if these assumptions were correct, we compared them to consumer preferences. Results showed that producers’ assumptions about consumer preferences differ significantly from actual consumers’ preferences.     

Land-use change in the ‘edgelands’: Policies and pressures in London's rural–urban fringe

Green Belt policies have helped to create chaotic landscapes at the rural–urban interfaces of the United Kingdom's largest cities. Their prime functions, to control urban sprawl and preserve an encircling green girdle to separate the urban from the open countryside, have created ‘edgelands’ that have been remarkably dynamic despite relatively strong controls on certain types of development. A detailed case study of one part of London's Metropolitan Green Belt, drawing upon analysis of planning registers, reveals long-term trends in land-use change linked to the development controls operated within the context of the Green Belt and the adjacent built-up area. This paper also outlines the history of the Green Belt policy in the United Kingdom (UK) and discusses recently proposed policy changes that have provoked ongoing debate about this form of control on urban sprawl and its consequences for the land use of Green Belts and the edgelands.     

Did the 2008–2009 Food and Financial Crises Affect Child Mortality? The Case of Sub-Saharan Africa

We estimate an aggregate model of child mortality on a panel of 40 African countries over the period 1995–2007. This model is then used to assess the impact of the 2008–2009 food and financial crises on child mortality, by comparing the number of child deaths computed under a “business-as-usual scenario” with those computed under the actual 2008–2009 “crisis scenario”. According to the simulation results, the 2008–2009 food price rise and recession caused a statistically non-significant additional 27,000 child deaths. However, if the 2008–2009 changes in other determinants of child mortality are factored in, the number of child deaths declined by 15,000. This unexpected result is explained by the fact that the effects of the rise in domestic food prices and the recession were offset in most of the region by the protective effect on the under-five mortality rate of a surge in food production, and by a rise in public expenditure on and foreign aid to the health sector.     

Contentious Care: Foster Care Grants and the Caregiver–Orphan Relationship in KwaZulu-Natal Province,South Africa

It is widely recognized that HIV/AIDS has devastating but also uneven effects on afflicted communities. While much research has rightly focused on the impact of HIV/AIDS on families, communities and countries, less attention has been paid to foster carers' experiences and to the network of care. Based on qualitative fieldwork carried out over a 3-month period in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, this study analyses the experiences of those caring for orphans who receive a state-funded Foster Care Grant. Conversations with caregivers suggest the contentious nature of care; this is worth exploring further, as it can cast light on how such macro-level interventions are shifting what it means to be an orphan at the community level. The main reason for bringing these issues to the fore is to make development interventions better informed and therefore better able to address those factors giving rise to the challenges faced by caregivers.     

Attitudes of food entrepreneurs towards two grant schemes under the first England Rural Development Programme, 2000–2006

Grant schemes introduced under the first England Rural Development Programme (ERDP) (2000–2006) have been subjected to limited academic research and this paper aims to fill this gap by examining the attitudes of food entrepreneurs in two contiguous English regions to two key elements of the ERDP: the Processing and Marketing Grant (PMG) and the Rural Enterprise Scheme (RES). It does this through a qualitative analysis of data gathered from interviews with 20 ‘adopters’ and 20 ‘non-adopters’ of the two schemes in the South West and West Midlands regions of England. The analysis reveals that, despite the rural development rhetoric, neither the PMG nor the RES was particularly effective at funding enterprises beyond the farm gate; both schemes also appeared to attract what can be described as ‘serial adopters’ and to discriminate against those without experience of applying for government grants. Nevertheless, indirectly they did provide opportunities to safeguard and expand local and regional food production, processing and retailing in the two regions.