Optimal Comparable Weighting and Selection: A Comment

Vandell (1991) and Gau, et al. (1992) have recently developed rigorous methods for selecting and weighting comparables for the market comparison approach to valuation. This paper compares the statistical properties of the Vandell and Gau approaches; specifically, it examines the bias and variance produced by both approaches. Under classical OLS assumptions, Vandell's method is preferable; when these assumptions are violated, the size and direction of the violation will determine which method is preferable. Finally, the paper concludes that when the regression producing the adjustment factors has an heteroskedastic error structure, corrections should be made to the regression itself, rather than as part of the comparable weighting and selection process.     

Convergence between telecommunications and other media: How should regulation adapt?

The paper examines the regulatory issues raised by technological convergence between telecommunications and other media. Market uncertainty for broadband services has gone hand in hand with both uncertainty over how to supply those services and a regulatory framework that will facilitate growth in the sector, ensure a competitive market and provide the necessary protections for consumers and the public. Development of the information market should be determined primarily by market forces. Intervention may be justified but a clear distinction needs to be drawn between regulation in the public interest and regulation to protect against market failure.     

The impact of biofuel growth on agriculture: Why is the range of estimates so wide?

The rapid expansion of biofuel production has generated considerable interest within the body of empirical economic literature that has sought to understand the impact of biofuel growth on the global food economy. While the consensus within the literature is that biofuel emergence is likely to have some effect on future world agricultural market, there is a considerable range in the estimated size of the impact. Despite the importance of this topic to policy makers, there has been no study that has tried to reconcile the differences among various outlook studies. This paper undertakes an in-depth review of some key outlook studies which quantify the impacts of biofuels on agricultural commodities, and which are based on either general-equilibrium (GE) or partial-equilibrium (PE) modeling approaches. We attempt to reconcile the systematic differences in the estimated impacts of biofuel production growth on the prospective prices and production of three major feedstock commodities, maize, sugar cane, and oilseeds across these studies. Despite the fact that all models predict positive impacts on prices and production, there are large differences among the studies. Our findings point to a number of key assumptions and structural differences that seem to jointly drive the variations we observe, across these studies. The differences among the PE models are mainly due to differences in the design of scenarios, the presence or absence of biofuel trade, and the structural way in which agricultural and energy market linkages are modeled. The differences among the GE models are likely to be driven by model assumptions on agricultural land supply, the inclusion of the byproducts, and assumptions on crude oil prices and the elasticity of substitution between petroleum and biofuels.     

Scarcity amidst abundance? Reassessing the potential for cropland expansion in Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is typically regarded as land abundant, and previous efforts to estimate the true extent of potentially available cropland (PAC) have largely affirmed this perception. Such efforts, however, have largely focused on production potential and have underemphasized economic profitability and other constraints to expansion. This paper re-estimates PAC for Africa in a more explicit economic framework that emphasizes the returns to agricultural production under a variety of assumptions, using recent geospatial data. Existing PAC estimates for Africa are shown to be highly sensitive to assumptions about land productivity and market access, and are moderately influenced by the use of alternative data sources. The region’s underutilized land resources are concentrated in relatively few countries, many of which are fragile states. Between one-half and two-thirds of the region’s surplus land is currently under forest cover; conversion of forests to cropland would entail major environmental costs. Most of the continent’s unexploited land resources are located far from input and output markets, limiting their economic attractiveness. In the long run, improvements in infrastructure and agricultural productivity and the growth of hinterland towns will enhance the economic returns to cropland expansion. In the short to medium term, however, the potential for profitable smallholder-based cropland expansion in most African countries is likely to be much more limited than it is typically perceived to be.     

Personal computer networks

In this discussion of the growth of personal computer use in the USA, and the increasing interest in linking these computers into networks, the author describes the expansion of personal computing in the USA since 1975, and cites a number of estimates, surveys, and market research studies concerning projected growth. The activities of the Personal Computer Network (PCNET) are discussed, from its founding in May 1977 to initial experimental operation in early 1978. A number of options for network link media are dealt with, including the dial telephone system and various radio link designs. These various network architectures lead to several policy issues: How will the standards for telephone system use interact with increasing use of personal computer-based telecommunications? How will the cost of telephone service (particularly off-peak hour rates) influence the growth and use of personal computer networks? Could, and should, the telephone carriers and/or the value-added carriers offer a packet-switched service to residential subscribers? What current restrictions are faced by personal computer users in networking via CB and amateur radio? Bandwidth for digital block radio can materially improve the cost-effectiveness of personal computer network activity — what frequencies would be suitable, and what usage restrictions would be appropriate? What are the societal consequences of personal computer networks?     

Market size and vertical integration: Stigler's hypothesis reconsidered

According to Stigler [1951], vertical disintegration should be the typical development in growing industries, vertical integration in declining industries. The basic argument is that firms will spin off production stages subject to increasing returns to scale in response to market growth. This paper re-examines Stigler's hypothesis within an equilibrium model of industrial structure in which the organization of firms is endogenous. Stigler's hypothesis is confirmed when entry into markets is free and firms compete. However, when entry into the intermediate good market is restricted, or intermediate good producers collude, vertical integration increases with market size.     

Contingent Product Design and Marketing Strategies Influencing New Product Success and Failure in U.S. and Japanese Electronics Firms

The commercial success or failure of a product doesn't rest solely on the whims of the marketplace. The myriad, often interdependent, strategic trade-offs made throughout the product development process go a long way toward determining whether a product succeeds or fails. The key to success often rests in finding the right combination of product design and market choice decisions. Toward that end, William E. Souder and X. Michael Song examine the relationship between product success and several product design and market choice strategies. In particular, they explore the possibility that the correct strategy combination differs depending on a firm's perception of market uncertainty, which they measure in terms of the respondents' perceived familiarity with the market for a product, perceived understanding of customer needs, and perceived capability to translate those needs into product performance specifications. Recognizing that the correct combination of strategic choices may also depend on firm size, industry, and culture, the study focuses on small U.S. suppliers of electronics components. Fortune 500 producers of electronics final products, and Japanese producers of electronics final products. For the small U.S. firms in the study, an emphasis on performance superiority, technical superiority, or radically new products provides a recipe for failure under low market uncertainty. Even under high market uncertainty, these characteristics do not equate to success for the small U.S. firms in this study. The findings suggest that these firms should focus on design compatibility with a purchaser's installed base. The responses from Fortune 500 firms and Japanese companies indicate that under low market uncertainty these larger organizations should consider emphasizing compatibility and avoiding radical designs. For markets that the larger firms perceive to be highly uncertain, the results suggest that these companies should emphasize performance superiority, technical superiority, and radical designs. The findings related to market choice strategies also support the notion that the correct combination of strategic decisions depends on firm size, culture, and the perceived level of market uncertainty. However, the guidelines presented in this study should not be construed as hard-and-fast rules for formulating product strategy. Instead, the results presented here will be helpful for challenging assumptions and guiding actions, as one element in the effort to shape an effective product strategy.     

Leveraging Social Network Sites in New Product Development: Opportunity or Hype?

Leveraging social network sites is high on the list of priorities for a lot of businesses that are eager to find more effective ways to reach, learn about, and engage customers in new product development (NPD). However, the rapidly changing landscape of social network sites can be difficult to navigate successfully and doubts remain about whether and how they can be used to good effect. In fact, empirical research confirming a positive relationship between the use of social network sites in NPD and business performance is scarce. This paper reports on research examining the use of social network sites for three purposes, namely for market research guiding the development of new products, for getting customers to collaborate in the NPD process, and for new product launch. The results of this research suggest that the benefits expected from using social network sites in NPD are largely not being realized by businesses. Using social network sites to conduct market research leading into the NPD process was not found to contribute to business performance, and in fact was found to have negative relationships with both profitability and market growth. Using social network sites to get customers to collaborate in the NPD process was found to be positively related with innovativeness but not with market growth or profitability. Finally, using social network sites for new product launch was where the most positive indications were seen, since this was found to be positively related with innovativeness, market growth, and profitability. Thus, it appears that while businesses may get good results from using social network sites for product launch, they still have a learning curve to traverse before they can successfully use them for market research or customer collaboration in NPD. While there is currently a great deal of enthusiasm—even hype—about the potential opportunities of using social network sites for NPD, this research suggests that businesses should move carefully and recognize that just jumping on the social network bandwagon will not insure success.     

The Licensing of Market Development Rights within Technology Alliances: A Shareholder Value Perspective*

Technology alliances create market development rights that are shared between partners in an alliance relative to codeveloped product technology. Alliance partners will often manage the shared market development rights in a cooperative manner by forming an agreement in which one partner (i.e., the licensor) licenses its market development rights to the other partner in the alliance (i.e., the licensee). The real options and bargaining power literatures provide opposing recommendations regarding whether a licensor creates greater shareholder value by licensing its market development rights to the licensee on a more or less restrictive basis. Empirical analysis of technology alliance contracts reveals that the restrictiveness by which a licensor should license its market development rights to a licensee depends on the licensee's strategic marketing emphasis. Specifically, a licensee will create greater value by following a more restrictive distribution strategy when its partner's marketing strategy emphasizes value creation. Alternatively, a licensee will create greater value when its partner's marketing strategy emphasizes value appropriation by following a less restrictive distribution strategy. From a theoretical perspective, the paper's findings provide early evidence regarding the contribution of marketing strategy toward value creation in technology alliances and help resolve the differing expectations offered by the real options and bargaining power literatures. Managerially, the paper identifies an alliance partner's strategic marketing emphasis as a hitherto unrecognized factor determining when managers should follow a more or less restrictive distribution strategy when licensing marketing development rights within technology alliances.     

Identifying Participants in a Price-fixing Conspiracy: Output & Market Share Tests Reexamined

If there is a cartel agreement among a subset of firms in an industry, it should be predicted that all firms in that industry will increase prices. Nevertheless, industry prices alone should not indicate that a particular firm is guilty of that conspiracy. According to the output test and its market share variant – proposed by Blair and Romano – if the output or the market share of the firm that claims to be innocent in the collusive activity rises in response to the price increase, that firm's claim should be accepted as true. Using a collusive variant of the dominant firm model, this paper shows that these are not robust tests to reveal either innocence or guilt, and characterizes cases where they may pardon a guilty firm (Type I error) or indict an innocent firm (Type II error). This paper also shows that a market share test can not be used to prove a dominant firm's intent for predatory pricing.     

Timing decisions of new product preannouncement and launch with competition

We develop a game-theoretic model to study the timing of new product preannouncement and launch under competition. We derive firms’ optimal timing choices and conducted a numerical analysis to evaluate the role of various factors. Our analytical and numerical results showed that anticipated competitor’s timing choices are the most significant factors. A firm should not preannounce early unless the preannouncement is effective in creating pent-up demands. However, the preannouncement and launch should be rushed if the quality or profit margin of the new product is high, and postponed if the market share of the existing product is high. The market leader should preannounce earlier in a simultaneous game than in a sequential game, but the opposite for the market follower. Data collected from the microprocessor industry validated our model.     

Participation: 'bounded freedom' or hidden constraints on user involvement

User participation in information systems development is often surrounded by assumptions that the resultant system will be a success, will reflect user needs, and that the process results in an empowered workforce. This paper argues that underlying these foreground rational assumptions are instrumental, politically motivated justifications driving the need to involve users.     

我国润滑油市场2011年回顾及2012年展望

2011年,在汽车工业发展“刹车”以及制造业增速减慢的影响下,我国润滑油市场呈现增速回落态势,表观消费量为675万吨,同比增长3.3％,低于近十年来5.6％的平均增速.润滑油消费结构继续向车用集中.润滑油市场竞争持续加剧,对进口基础油的依赖度开始下降.2011年可能是我国润滑油市场快速增长20年以来的一个转折期的开始.预计2012年我国经济保持稳定增长,润滑油消费量约700万吨;进口基础油数量将出现自2005年以来的首次回落.     

Intangible capital,ICT and sector growth in China

This paper explores how intangible capital affects the growth of ICT-intensive sectors in China by examining 29 sectors in 30 regions for the years 2003–2015. It is shown that the value added in ICT-intensive sectors in China will grow faster in regions with faster development of intangible capital. This effect is robust to alternative measures of intangible capital and ICT intensity indicators, and even if other region-level determinants of sector growth such as human capital, non-ICT physical capital and financial market development are taken into consideration. The findings imply that Chinese policy makers should aim for not only more ICT investment but also the development of intangible capital.     

Residual demand estimation for market delineation: Complications and limitations

To shed some light on market delineation in an antitrust context, many economists are turning to estimates of residual demand elasticities. Recent papers have drawn attention to the importance of demand curve in market delineation and explained how they can be estimated. This paper shows that there are many complications and limitations of the approach. The relationship between the residual demand elasticity and the scope of the relevant market is complicated and depends on behavioral assumptions. The residual demand elasticity that can be estimated is not the one on which market delineation turns. The estimation of residual demand elasticities can be very difficult because of the complex dynamics of consumer behavior. Finally, residual demand estimators are likely to have a high variance because of instrument problems and this is likely to lead to widely varying estimates depending on specification choices.     

Acquisition strategy and the market position of acquiring firms

Research suggests that firms which emphasize unrelated diversification through mergers and acquisitions are often located in unfavorable market positions, in terms of the attractiveness of their industries and their competitive positions within these industries. However, these previous research efforts have not established whether such positions will also be linked to firms using non-conglomerate acquisition strategies. This study utilizes three acquisition strategies—conglomerate, technology-related, and marketing-related—to hypothesize differences in the market position of acquisitive firms. Results show that, while acquisitive growth is generally associated with a decline in market position, one particular acquisition strategy, the marketing-related strategy, is associated with a distinctly superior position. Firms utilizing this strategy were found to be in more profitable industries and to have higher market shares in these industries.     

U.S. Union Membership in Future Decades: A Trade Unionist's Perspective

Slower workforce growth, more gradual industrial restructuring, a tighter labor market, and the gradual emergence of a more efficient organizing capability will help to stem the projected decline in private-sector union membership. A broad array of consumer benefits and the development of new form of union membership, such as those that do not necessarily result in exclusive recognition, should also help stem that decline     

Dual clocks: Entry order influences on incumbent and newcomer market share and survival when specialized assets retain their value

Entry order analysis often shows that early entrants to an industry or technical subfield of an industry outperform laggards. Some studies, though, have found that late entrants prevail. This paper tests dual-clock hypotheses of entry order effects on performance, measured both as market share and survival. One entry clock records the entry of all entrants to a new technical subfield within an industry, while a second clock records the entry of industry incumbents. Relative to the appropriate clock, early entrants are predicted to outperform laggards, but when entry is measured on only one clock, the estimated influences may be inaccurate. Error will be particularly likely if a study contains a survivor bias. The study, which finds entry timing trade-offs between market share and survival, is generalizable to cases in which a plausible set of conditions is found.     

浅析工程建设领域推行工程担保保证制度

工程建设领域推行工程担保保证制度的必要性，是有利于规范业主行为，保证合同履约，制止无序的竞争、遏止腐败滋生，有利于与国际市场接轨等。实施工程担保保证制度的必要条件，是制定专业法规，培育专业担保公司，全面履行工程担保保证的各项职责。建设市场应推行工程担保保证制度，应认真组织好试点，拟订好试点的目标、内容和方法，选择好试点项目的承包主体。这对于保证我国建设市场的有效运行将起到良好的作用。     

近年我国沥青市场发展回顾及中长期展望

2001-2010年,我国沥青表观消费量年均增速为13.1％,经济的持续稳定增长为沥青市场提供基本支撑,道路交通的快速发展是沥青需求增长的主要驱动力.三大石油公司是主要的沥青供应商,其所占的市场份额不断增长,市场集中度不断提高.尽管我国沥青进口数量在不断增加,但对进口沥青的依赖程度开始降低.我国沥青路面比例偏低,“十二五”、“十三五”是我国道路交通的大发展时期,沥青消费也将保持增长态势.预计2015年我国沥青消费量将达到2500万吨;“十三五”期间将达到并保持在2500万～3000万吨/年的水平.