The Penn Square Bank failure: Effect on commercial bank security returns — a note

In this paper, we apply standard event methodology to test the effect of the Penn Square Bank failure on the daily returns of three groups of bank holding companies. During the 75-day event period, upstream banks which had Penn Square loan participations faced nearly continual declines in daily returns; banks in the same economic region followed a pattern of less severe but continuously declining returns; while returns for banks outside the region were not significantly affected. We conclude that the market viewed the Penn Square failure as an isolated event which did not significantly affect banks away from regional economic influences.     

Intra-Industry Effects of a Regulatory Shift: Capital Market Evidence from Penn Square

In this paper, we use stock market data to examine the intra-industry effects of the July 5, 1982, closure of the Penn Square bank. A sample of 54 bank stocks is divided into four portfolios: industry, money center, Texas, and upstream. The latter group consists of banks that had purchased loans directly from Penn Square. Our objective is to determine whether FDIC Chairman Isaac's decision to close, rather than merge, Penn Square had an industry-wide contagion effect or a firm-specific information effect. We conclude that the stock market reaction to the Penn Square closure represents a rational investor response to new bank-specific information.     

The NAB foreign currency option losses in the context of a disaster myopia model

In this paper the author develops a model that expands on the ‘disaster myopia’ analysis of Guttentag and Herring and provides an eight-stage process which incorporates the ‘availability heuristic’ of Tversky and Kahneman. The eight-stage disaster myopia process might be recognised as a model which encapsulates the key elements of serious bank loss experiences. The model is shown to be consistent in explaining the earlier bank loss experiences such as Barings Bank and Daiwa Bank. In this paper this model is applied to the recent National Australia Bank (NAB) losses in currency option trading and suggestions are made as to how it might be used to improve the processes of corporate governance that appear to be unable to recognise problems early enough.     

Institutions,banking structure and the cost of debt: new international evidence

This paper analyses the effect of institutions and the structure of the banking system on the cost of debt for a sample of firms from 37 countries. The cost of debt decreases with the rule of law, the protection of creditors’ rights and the weight of banks in the economy. Bank financing and bank concentration have a positive differential effect on the cost of debt in those countries where the financial difficulties of banks are greater. Legal enforcement, the protection of creditors’ rights and the weight of bank financing have a greater influence in countries with a lower degree of economic development.     

UK policy coordination: the importance of institutional design

This paper considers the principles that underpin the design of the UK's macroeconomic framework, with particular emphasis on the importance of good institutional design in ensuring effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy when an independent Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has operational responsibility for setting interest rates. The theoretical literature on policy coordination finds that the cost of central bank independence is less monetary‐fiscal coordination. We argue that once account is taken of the institutional arrangements, this conclusion does not hold for the UK. In fact, the UK macroeconomic policy framework represents a significant improvement in policy coordination through mechanisms that allow for greater transparency and accountability in policy‐making. Among the measures discussed in the paper is the role of the Treasury Representative on the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee.     

异质性、外部环境与城市商业银行跨区域经营决策

基于2006~2012年中国城市商业银行跨区域经营的数据,从银行异质性和外部环境两个角度研究银行跨区域经营决策的影响因素。结果发现,从银行异质性的角度来看,资产规模、资本水平、盈利能力、董事会独立性会促进城市商业银行的跨区域经营,风险水平与政府控股会阻碍城市商业银行的跨区域经营;目标地区的金融竞争程度与法律法规环境会促进城市商业银行的跨区域经营,而本地该方面因素对跨区域经营的影响不显著;本地与目标地区的经济发展水平均会促进城市商业银行的跨区域经营。     

Foreign bank entry and firms’ access to bank credit: Evidence from China

This paper studies the impact of foreign bank entry on domestic firms’ access to bank credit using a within-country staggered geographic variation in the policy of foreign bank lending in China. The paper finds that after foreign bank entry profitable firms use more long-term bank loans; whereas firms with higher value of potential collateral do not. It also finds that non-state-owned firms become able to substitute some trade credit with long-term bank loans. The findings suggest that less opaque firms and non-state-owned firms benefit more from foreign bank entry and that collateral may only play a limited role in mitigating the problem of information asymmetry when creditors’ rights are not well protected in a host country.     

The asymmetric effect of international swap lines on banks in emerging markets

This paper investigates the effect of international swap lines on stock returns using data from banks in emerging markets. The analysis first shows that swap lines by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had a positive impact on bank stocks in Central and Eastern Europe. It then highlights the importance of individual bank characteristics in identifying the asymmetric effect of swap lines on bank stocks. Bank-level evidence suggests that stock prices of local and less-well capitalized banks as well as banks with high foreign currency exposures and high reliance on short-term funding responded more strongly to SNB swap lines. This new evidence is consistent with the view that swap lines not only enhanced market liquidity but also reduced risks associated with micro-prudential issues.     

Reprint of: The asymmetric effect of international swap lines on banks in emerging markets

This paper investigates the effect of international swap lines on stock returns using data from banks in emerging markets. The analysis first shows that swap lines by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had a positive impact on bank stocks in Central and Eastern Europe. It then highlights the importance of individual bank characteristics in identifying the asymmetric effect of swap lines on bank stocks. Bank-level evidence suggests that stock prices of local and less-well capitalized banks as well as banks with high foreign currency exposures and high reliance on short-term funding responded more strongly to SNB swap lines. This new evidence is consistent with the view that swap lines not only enhanced market liquidity but also reduced risks associated with micro-prudential issues.     

Bank Relationships and the Value Relevance of the Income Statement: Evidence from Income-Statement Conservatism

Abstract:  This study examines the effects of a firm's debt financing decision on the informativeness of the income statement. This study specifically examines the association between a firm's bank dependence and the value relevance of the income statement by investigating the income-statement conservatism of firms with bank loans. Focusing on relatively small businesses, this study finds that income-statement conservatism, measured as timely loss recognition, is increasing in a firm's bank dependence. This study also finds that the value relevance of the income statement is increasing in a firm's bank dependence. The findings of this paper suggest that the usefulness of the income statement varies with a firm's bank dependence, indicating that the value relevance of the income statement is a function of a firm's debt financing decision. The findings further suggest that bank relationships affect the value relevance of the income statement through their influence on income-statement conservatism.     

The channels of monetary policy triggered by central bank actions and statements in the Australian equity market

Owing to the discrete disclosure practices of the Reserve Bank of Australia, this paper provides new evidence on the channels of monetary policy triggered by central bank actions (monetary policy announcements) and statements (explanatory minutes releases), in the Australian equity market. Both monetary policy announcements and explanatory minutes releases are shown to have a significant and comparable impact on the returns and volatility of the Australian equity market. Further, distinct from US and European studies that find strong evidence of the interest rate, bank loan and balance sheet channels and no evidence of the exchange rate channel following central bank actions, this paper finds that monetary policy impacts the Australian equity market via the exchange rate, interest rate and bank loan channels of monetary policy, with only weak evidence of the balance sheet channel of monetary policy. These channels are found to be operating irrespective of the trigger (monetary policy announcements or explanatory minutes releases), though results are somewhat weaker when examining the explanatory minutes releases. These results have important implications for central bank officials and financial market participants alike: by confirming a comparable avenue to affect monetary policy; and providing an explication of its impact on the Australian equity market.     

Bank Failure,Mark‐to‐market and the Financial Crisis

This paper is concerned with the allegation that fair value accounting rules have contributed significantly to the recent financial crisis. It focuses on one particular channel for that contribution: the impact of fair value on the actual or potential failure of banks. The paper compares four criteria for failure: one economic, two legal and one regulatory. It is clear from this comparison that balance sheet valuations of assets are, in two cases, crucial in these definitions, and so the choice between ‘fair value’ or other valuations can be decisive in whether a bank fails; but in two cases fair value is irrelevant. Bank failures might arise despite capital adequacy and balance sheet solvency due to sudden shocks to liquidity positions. Two of the most prominent bank failures cannot, at first sight, be attributed to fair value accounting: we show that Northern Rock was balance sheet solvent, even on a fair value basis, as was Lehman Brothers. The case study evidence is augmented by econometric tests that suggest that mark‐to‐market accounting has had only a very limited influence on the perceived failure risk of banks.     

全球央行购买公司债的原因、效果及启示

中央银行购买公司债是次贷危机后货币政策理论的一项伟大创新和重要实践探索。通过对迄今为止购买过公司债的日本央行、英国央行和欧洲央行的公司债购买计划进行的系统梳理和总结,以及对中央银行购买公司债的理论依据进行分析,提出中央银行购买公司债的六大传导机制。对中央银行购买公司债的经验进行阐述后认为,鉴于当前实体经济依然存在融资难融资贵问题,中国央行在必要时也可实施公司债购买计划,以降低信用利差并提高货币政策传导效率。     

The reaction of asset markets to Swiss National Bank communication

In this paper we analyze high-frequency movements in Swiss asset markets in reaction to real-time communication by the Swiss National Bank. Our analysis of central bank communication encompasses monetary policy announcements, speeches and interviews. We examine the reactions of the currency market, the bond market and the stock exchange. The evidence suggests that speeches and interviews, along with monetary policy announcements, engender a significant price reaction. This paper sheds light on the relevance of communications other than monetary policy announcements.     

Bank branch operating efficiency: Evaluation with Data Envelopment Analysis

Measuring and evaluating the operating efficiency of bank branches requires analytic techniques that provide insights beyond those available from accounting ratio analysis. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), a mathematical programming technique, provides useful insights in locating inefficient branches by explicitly considering the mix of services provided and the resources used to provide these bank services. Bank management finds the DEA results provide meaningful insights not available from other techniques that focus on ways to improve productivity. The results suggests that DEA is a beneficial complement to other techniques for improving bank branch efficiency.     

What lies beneath—Negative interest rates and bank lending

We study the transmission of negative interest rates to bank lending around an unexpected policy rate cut into deep negative territory by the Swiss National Bank (−0.75%). We exploit a rich data set on transaction-level corporate loans matched with bank balance sheet data. We find that banks more affected by negative interest rates offer looser lending terms and lend more than other banks. This result is consistent with the risk-taking channel, where a lower policy rate spurs bank risk-taking to maintain profits. The result implies that, even in such deep negative territory, the reversal rate has not yet been hit.     

API开放银行：金融科技背景下商业银行转型升级的重要方向

对API开放银行的国际、国内监管和市场动态开展现实观察,就API开放银行对商业银行数字化转型、生态圈场景建设、平台升级迭代等方面金融科技转型升级的重要影响进行分析阐述,对API开放银行创新发展的制约因素开展深入研究,并总结、提炼出商业银行推进API开放银行创新发展的对策建议。     

A novel fuzzy neural approach to data reconstruction and failure prediction

Bank failure prediction is of great importance to a bank's clients, policy-makers and regulators. Various traditional models have been employed to study bank failures. Unfortunately, their performances are unsatisfactory. In this paper, the pseudo-outer product fuzzy neural network using the compositional rule of inference and singleton fuzzifier (POPFNN-CRI(S))-based bank failure prediction model is proposed. It employs computational bank failure analysis techniques coupled with reconstruction of missing financial data in financial covariates that are available from publicly available financial statements as inputs. The performance of the proposed model is assessed through the classification rate of 3636 US banks observed over a 21-year period. The effects of missing data reconstruction are investigated. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bank Mergers and Small Firm Finance: Evidence from Lender Liability

As a merger approaches, the value of repeat business for the target bank can drop sharply, so loan relationships between this bank and small businesses are often disrupted. Small firms sometimes experience serious value destruction as a consequence of this sudden lack of credit. This paper shows that lender liability may result from bank mergers and bankers involved in mergers often engage in aggressive, scorched‐earth defense tactics to discourage further litigation. I summarize six lender liability cases to illustrate these points. Bank mergers have been shown to reduce credit availability in a number of studies. Since small firms depend on credit for their daily existence, owners of small firms do have a reason to fear a merger of their bank with a larger institution. Analyzing merger effects with survey data of firms obtained after a bank merger, an empirical strategy used in a number of studies, raises problems since the only firms considered are the ones that survived the bank merger. Suggesting that the problem will cure itself in the long run, an argument advanced in other studies, ignores small firms' daily dependence on credit. In the long run we are all dead. Bank examiners need to evaluate an institution's litigation experience and measure a bank's organizational architecture – its ethical climate. Banks which are repeatedly involved in lender liability lawsuits should be denied future mergers until there is a change in organizational architecture. To assist in evaluating organizational architecture, banks should be required to report their litigation expense on their call reports. Furthermore, regulators should seriously consider the recent suggestion of Carow, Kane and Narayanan (2006) that they take steps to ensure that participants in bank mergers preserve target bank relationships. Otherwise negative effects on small business lending and economic growth will continue as bank consolidation proceeds.     

International diversification gains and home bias in banking

This paper studies international diversification in banking, exploiting a bank-level dataset that covers the operations of 38 global banks and their subsidiaries overseas during 1995–2004. The paper finds that banks with a larger share of assets allocated to subsidiaries in emerging market countries were able to attain higher risk-adjusted returns. These gains were somewhat reduced by the concentration of bank subsidiaries in specific geographical regions, which is typical of the observed international expansion strategies. The paper also finds a substantial home bias in the international allocation of bank assets relative to the results of a mean–variance portfolio optimization model.