我国政策性农业保险的扶贫效果分析

农业保险能够有效的分散和化解农业生产经营中的风险,其风险保障与经济补偿功能天然契合贫困地区农业生产者的需求。为应对我国农村地区的贫困问题,应充分利用农业保险这一风险管理工具。为了检验政策性农业保险的扶贫效果,本文结合我国现行的贫困标准,以农村居民人均收入为主要因素构建FGT贫困指数,利用2010-2016年全国各省的面板数据进行门限模型分析。结果显示,农业保险和农险财政补贴扶贫效果均存在门限特征,说明农业保险扶贫效果受制于经济发展水平。基于此,建议根据不同地区的经济水平采取差异化财政补贴政策,集中更多的财政资金支持以农业产业为支柱、经济发展落后、地方财力不足的贫困地区。     

相对贫困视角下农业保险减贫效应研究——基于2007-2019年中国30个省(区、市)的面板数据

我国已步入治理相对贫困的新阶段,在此背景下研究农业保险减缓相对贫困的影响效应,有助于发挥农业保险在相对贫困治理中的重要作用。本文基于2007-2019年全国30个省份的面板数据,采用普通面板回归模型、门槛回归模型和空间计量模型,在相对贫困视角下对农业保险减贫效应进行实证分析。研究发现:农业保险具有减缓相对贫困的作用,进一步分析发现该效应在全国层面和中西部地区显著,在东部地区不显著;农业保险对相对贫困存在基于农民人均可支配收入的双重门槛效应;农业保险减缓相对贫困存在显著的空间溢出效应,农业保险发展不仅能减缓本地区相对贫困,还能促进临近地区相对贫困减缓。因此,未来应推动农业保险高质量发展,注重农业保险发展的区域差异性及区域协同性。     

财政支农促进了农业经济发展吗？——基于中国农业保险财政补贴试点的实证研究

科学合理的财政支持政策，是解决我国“三农”问题、推动经济社会平稳健康发展的重要举措。本文基于全国各省份农业经济数据，利用我国从2007年开始在各个省份陆续实施的农业保险财政补贴政策试点这一“准自然实验”，使用多期双重差分模型评估农业保险财政补贴政策对我国农业经济发展的影响。研究发现，农业保险财政补贴政策显著增加了各省份农林牧渔业总产值，促进了我国农业经济的发展，这一结论在进行了一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。异质性分析表明，农业保险财政补贴政策对东中部省份和经营规模较大的农户影响更为显著。进一步机制分析发现，农业科技水平的提高和农作物种植面积的扩大是农业保险财政补贴政策发挥作用的主要依据。本研究表明，我国应继续增加国家支农体系中的农业保险财政补贴力度，实施差异化的财政补贴政策，完善农业保险科技合作机制，从而更好发挥财政支农作用。     

中国政策性农业保险发展的区域比较研究

本文利用保险深度和密度、财政补贴力度和覆盖率三个指标对中国不同地区农业保险的发展水平进行了区域比较分析。研究发现,经济发展水平与农业保险发展水平之间并不存在明显的正相关关系,经济发达地区对政策性农业保险的整体支持力度并不显著高于经济欠发达地区;保费补贴时间较长、保险覆盖率较高的地区,其政策性农业保险的发展水平较高。因此,本文建议从中央层面制定一个全国性的政策性农业保险整体发展规划,通过经济激励的方式促使经济发达省区加大对农业保险的财政支持力度。     

我国农业保险保费的最优补贴率研究——基于激励与约束机制

农业保险是分散农业风险的一种有效手段,多国的保险实践证明没有政府支持的农业保险无法实现有效市场化.政府对农业保险的支持,特别是财政支持,也即农业保险保费补贴率,很大程度上影响着农业保险的发展,值得深入探究.本文从供求理论和价格歧视理论出发,将现代企业管理中的激励与约束机制与保费补贴率问题相结合,探究我国农业保险保费最优补贴率.研究发现,农业保险最优纯补贴率为农业保险赔付率.进一步引入资本资产定价模型对农业保险保费补贴率进行定价,利用农业保险赔付率模拟各地区系统性风险,根据不同险种不同保障水平的保费补贴率风险溢价,测算出各地区不同险种的最优农业保险保费补贴率.为了最大化农业保险的助农功效,还需要通过实行差别化补贴率、降低保险赔付率和经营管理费用率,优化农业保险保费补贴率,最终实现我国财政补贴农业保险从数量增长向质量抬升的转变.     

政策性农业保险试点进展回顾及推广建议

一、2007年政策性农业保险试点进展与2008年推广计划 2007年以来在全国6个省区试点推行的政策性农业保险是一种财政补贴型保险,即财政补贴部分保费,农户负担部分保费.     

专项转移支付对地方政府农业支出的激励效应——以农业保险为例

财政支农是保障我国粮食安全的重要手段,也是中央和地方政府的共同责任。为调动地方的积极性,1994年“分税制”改革后中央设立了较大规模的农林水事务专项转移支付,并要求地方政府在共同事权项目中进行配套补贴。中央专项转移支付是否会激励地方政府的农业支出行为?具体的激励机制是什么?对区域均衡发展又有何影响?本文结合我国农业保险保费补贴的政策情境,构建了中央农业保险专项转移支付与地方政府保费补贴行为之间的“激励—响应”模型,在此基础上利用2008～2017年我国各省农险保费补贴的数据,实证检验了中央农业保险专项转移支付对各省农险保费补贴的激励效应,并探讨了这种激励效应的时间趋势及后果。研究发现：从全国范围来看,中央农业保险专项转移支付显著激励了地方政府对农业保险(包括种植业、养殖业)保费的补贴支出,对养殖业保险的激励效应要比种植业保险更为显著,对中西部地区的激励效应要强于东部地区;在现行的比例补贴方式下,地方对农业保险保费的实际补贴水平低于其最优补贴规模;从时间趋势来看,中央农业保险专项转移支付对中西部地区的激励效应出现了“先升后降”的趋势,而对东部地区的激励效应则一直比较平稳;在现行的地方先行...     

流通产业发展的减贫效应研究——基于中国2000-2015年省级面板数据的经验证据

以流通产业为例,选取我国2000-2015年省域面板数据,依据内生经济增长及经济增长假说理论,从总体减贫、内部要素、区域差异、空间溢出等四个维度提出假设,讨论流通产业发展能否有效减少贫困.研究发现:流通产业发展具有显著正向减贫效应,且在第三产业内部构成中减贫效应表现突出;流通产业发展内部要素减贫效应存在显性差异;信息化水平减贫效应最大,劳动力、交通投资次之,人力资本减贫效应有待挖掘;流通产业减贫效应存在区域空间异质性;东部地区流通产业减贫效应显著且高于中、西部地区;流通产业减贫存在显著空间溢出效应.     

完善我国政策性农业保险财税政策的思考

自2007年我国中央财政开展农业保险保费补贴试点以来,各级财政不断加大财政补贴力度,大大促进了我国农业保险业务发展,但我国政策性农业保险财税政策仍存在诸多问题,应进一步加大财政补贴力度,健全财政补贴体系,完善农业保险税收优惠政策。     

农业保险财政补贴政策能调整作物种植结构吗?——来自中国准自然实验的证据北大核心CSSCI

合理的种植业结构是粮食安全内涵的重要组成部分。本文以2002~2018年省级面板数据为样本,将逐步推进的农业保险财政补贴政策作为一项准自然实验,实证检验了农业保险财政补贴政策对农作物种植面积影响的作用机制及效果。研究发现:农业保险财政补贴政策显著提高了水稻和小麦的种植面积,能够发挥助力种植业结构调整的作用,并且这种影响效应具有持续性;农业保险财政补贴政策对作物种植面积的影响效果具有异质性,在作物非主产省的促进效果更加明显。机制分析表明,通过收入效应渠道,财政补贴政策能够有效释放农业保险需求,提高农户的投保积极性,促进作物种植面积调整;通过替代效应渠道,相互竞争的主产作物间补贴水平差异能够诱导农户重新进行土地分配,实现作物间的相互替代,达到优化调整种植业结构的目标。本文的发现为农业保险财政补贴政策对作物种植面积的影响效应提供了来自中国的证据,基于此本文提出加大农业保险财政支持力度、制定差异化补贴政策和加强发展地方特色优势农产品保险等相关建议。     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:1 Submissions must be original     

International harmonization of Japanese accounting standards

Historically, Japanese accounting standards have been quite distinct from International Accounting Standards (IASs) which have been perceived as being modelled on British-American accounting standards. However, in the 1990s, after the publication of E32 in 1989 and the IASC-IOSCO Agreement in 1995, the Business Accounting Deliberation Committee (BADC), the standards-setting body in Japan, has pursued a policy of harmonization with IASs. Accounting standards relating to consolidated financial statements of companies that make cross-border offerings of securities or operate worldwide are being revised drastically. This paper focuses on the development of international accounting harmonization and its impact on Japan.     

Commodity financialization and sector ETFs: Evidence from crude oil futures

We investigate the diversification benefits of energy assets in the setting of commodity financialization using data on crude oil futures and Sector ETFs (SPDRs). Correlations between commodities and financial assets increased during the post-Commodity Futures Modernization Act (CFMA)/commodity bull cycle period, resulting in lower benefits of diversification. However, we find that conditional correlations between crude oil futures and sector ETFs meaningfully increased only since the 2008–09 financial crisis. The results therefore suggest that the financial crisis, rather than CFMA regulation, explains changes in the diversification benefits of commodities. Moreover, we find that oil futures returns are less correlated with SPDRs than with the S&P index. Thus, energy futures, and crude oil in particular, offer the potential for diversification benefits in sector-style investing.     

Dutch accounting in Japan 1609-1850: isolation or observation?

The trading station or factory maintained by the Dutch East India Company (VOC) was Japan's sole window on the Western world during most of the Tokugawa period (1600-1868). While many aspects of the factory's role in Dutch/Japanese cultural exchange have been researched little is known in the West of the accounting at the factory. This paper considers the possibility that double-entry bookkeeping employed by the Dutch may have been diffused to the Japanese. The available evidence is synthesized after considering the accounting system in the Dutch factory.